Equitability revisited: why the “equitable threat score” is not equitable

In the forecasting of binary events, verification measures that are “equitable” were defined by Gandin and Murphy to satisfy two requirements: 1) they award all random forecasting systems, including those that always issue the same forecast, the same expected score (typically zero), and 2) they are expressible as the linear weighted sum of the elements of the contingency table, where the weights are independent of the entries in the table, apart from the base rate. The authors demonstrate that the widely used “equitable threat score” (ETS), as well as numerous others, satisfies neither of these requirements and only satisfies the first requirement in the limit of an infinite sample size. Such measures are referred to as “asymptotically equitable.” In the case of ETS, the expected score of a random forecasting system is always positive and only falls below 0.01 when the number of samples is greater than around 30. Two other asymptotically equitable measures are the odds ratio skill score and the symmetric extreme dependency score, which are more strongly inequitable than ETS, particularly for rare events; for example, when the base rate is 2% and the sample size is 1000, random but unbiased forecasting systems yield an expected score of around −0.5, reducing in magnitude to −0.01 or smaller only for sample sizes exceeding 25 000. This presents a problem since these nonlinear measures have other desirable properties, in particular being reliable indicators of skill for rare events (provided that the sample size is large enough). A potential way to reconcile these properties with equitability is to recognize that Gandin and Murphy’s two requirements are independent, and the second can be safely discarded without losing the key advantages of equitability that are embodied in the first. This enables inequitable and asymptotically equitable measures to be scaled to make them equitable, while retaining their nonlinearity and other properties such as being reliable indicators of skill for rare events. It also opens up the possibility of designing new equitable verification measures.

Pronoun processing in Broca's aphasia: discourse-syntax effects in ambiguous anaphora resolution

Background: The interpretation of ambiguous subject pronouns in a null subject language, like Greek, requires that one possesses grammatical knowledge of the two subject pronominal forms, i.e., null and overt, and that discourse constraints regulating the distribution of the two pronouns in context are respected. Aims: We investigated whether the topic-shift feature encoded in overt subject pronouns would exert similar interpretive effects in a group of seven participants with Broca’s aphasia and a group of language-unimpaired adults during online processing of null and overt subject pronouns in referentially ambiguous contexts. Method & Procedures: An offline picture–sentence matching task was initially administered to investigate whether the participants with Broca’s aphasia had access to the gender and number features of clitic pronouns. An online self-paced listening picture-verification task was subsequently administered to examine how the aphasic individuals resolve pronoun ambiguities in contexts with either null or overt subject pronouns and how their performance compares to that of language-unimpaired adults. Outcomes & Results: Results demonstrate that the Broca group, along with controls, had intact access to the morphosyntactic features of clitic pronouns. However, the aphasic individuals showed decreased preference for non-salient antecedents in object position during the online resolution of ambiguous overt subject pronouns and preferred to pick the subject antecedent instead. Conclusions: Broca’s aphasic participants’ parsing decisions in the online task reflect their difficulty with establishing topic-shifted interpretations of the ambiguous overt subject pronouns. The presence of a local topic-shift effect in the immediate temporal vicinity of the overt pronoun suggests that sensitivity to the marked informational status of overt pronouns is preserved in the aphasic individuals, yet, it is blocked under conditions of global sentential processing.

How do I know if my forecasts are better? Using benchmarks in Hydrological ensemble prediction

The skill of a forecast can be assessed by comparing the relative proximity of both the forecast and a benchmark to the observations. Example benchmarks include climatology or a naïve forecast. Hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) are currently transforming the hydrological forecasting environment but in this new field there is little information to guide researchers and operational forecasters on how benchmarks can be best used to evaluate their probabilistic forecasts. In this study, it is identified that the forecast skill calculated can vary depending on the benchmark selected and that the selection of a benchmark for determining forecasting system skill is sensitive to a number of hydrological and system factors. A benchmark intercomparison experiment is then undertaken using the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS), a reference forecasting system and a suite of 23 different methods to derive benchmarks. The benchmarks are assessed within the operational set-up of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) to determine those that are ‘toughest to beat’ and so give the most robust discrimination of forecast skill, particularly for the spatial average fields that EFAS relies upon. Evaluating against an observed discharge proxy the benchmark that has most utility for EFAS and avoids the most naïve skill across different hydrological situations is found to be meteorological persistency. This benchmark uses the latest meteorological observations of precipitation and temperature to drive the hydrological model. Hydrological long term average benchmarks, which are currently used in EFAS, are very easily beaten by the forecasting system and the use of these produces much naïve skill. When decomposed into seasons, the advanced meteorological benchmarks, which make use of meteorological observations from the past 20 years at the same calendar date, have the most skill discrimination. They are also good at discriminating skill in low flows and for all catchment sizes. Simpler meteorological benchmarks are particularly useful for high flows. Recommendations for EFAS are to move to routine use of meteorological persistency, an advanced meteorological benchmark and a simple meteorological benchmark in order to provide a robust evaluation of forecast skill. This work provides the first comprehensive evidence on how benchmarks can be used in evaluation of skill in probabilistic hydrological forecasts and which benchmarks are most useful for skill discrimination and avoidance of naïve skill in a large scale HEPS. It is recommended that all HEPS use the evidence and methodology provided here to evaluate which benchmarks to employ; so forecasters can have trust in their skill evaluation and will have confidence that their forecasts are indeed better.

Ungdomars fysiska aktivitet och dess betydelse för prestationen i skolan

This study where designed to investigate if there are any positive relationship between the extent of physical activity during adolescent's leisure time and the academic performance, and also if there are any negative relationship between the academic performance and the time spent in front of the television or computers. Another part of the study tried to find out if physical activity has a direct and immediate influence on the performance in school. 91 pupils (51 girls and 40 boys) in the 8:th year of the Swedish primary school, from three different schools participated in the study. All 91 pupils first responded to a questionnaire concerning there activities in leisure time. They where then tested in a mathematical test and the results where compared with the extent of physical activity and TV/computer time they had stated in the questionnaire. 53 of the pupils also participated in the part of the study where direct and immediate influences of physical activity where tested. They where tested in two different but similar mathematical tests. Before the first test all pupils had a walk for about 3 km. The second test where accomplished whiteout preceding walk.Pupils who spend one hour or less/week on physical activity had significant lower mean score on the mathematical test then the pupils who spend more than one hour/week on physical activities, (Mann-Whitney U-test: Z= -2,486, p= 0,0129). Boys who spent 10,5 hours or less/week in front of the TV/computer had significant higher mean score than the boys who spent more than 10,5 hours/week in front of the TV/computer. No significant differences in the results of the two different tests, one white and one whiteout preceding walk, were observed.

Kan ett synintryck upphäva en ljudillusion? : En undersökning av oktavillusionen kopplad till visuella stimuli i form av noter

The present study origins from Diana Deutschs work with the octave illusion and investigates if musically trained subjects can give a more correct perception of the octave illusion if their visual senses also get stimulated in form of scores.Ten subjects, with over 20 years experience playing an instrument, participated in the investigation. The result shows that a more correct perception of the octave illusion depends on the educational level in scorereading. Four out of five subjects who valued their knowledge in scorereading as being good or very good reported that the score corresponded to what they could hear in the right ear, which is connected to the dominant hemisphere. When they were instructed to focus on both ears three of these subjects reported that the score corresponded to what they could hear in the left ear, but that they could not hear the lower tone in the right ear. As the scores for the right ear were equal for the identical soundexamples this perception could be an indication that stimuli are percieved as being complex and the interpretation is alternated to the non dominant hemisphere.

Muntlig framställning : att tolka och förstå kunskapskraven i nationellt prov SVA 1

Den här studien har haft som syfte att studera om kvalitetskraven i betygsskalan stämmer överens mellan nationellt prov i SVA1 och motsvarande kursplan svenska som andraspråk 1 (SVA1) samt på vilket sätt det nationella provet underlättar tolkningen av kunskapskraven i kursplanen för SVA1. Undersökningen begränsar sig till att omfatta enbart den muntliga delen, delprov A muntlig framställning. För att beskriva och analysera vilka kunskaper som anses vara eftersträvansvärda i muntlig framställning har en kvalitativ innehållsanalys genomförts som ger en grundmodell till den efterföljande kunskapsanalysen. Resultaten från studiens innehållsanalys visar fram en hur processen kring den muntliga framställningen utgår från den retoriska arbetsmodellen med ett gediget förberedande arbete som följs upp med anförande och avslutas med elevresponser. Resultatet från kunskapsanalysen visar hur eleverna behöver behärska en kombination av kunskapsformerna episteme, techné och fronesis för att uppfylla betygskraven på de högre nivåerna. Studiens slutsatser är att kvalitetskraven stämmer överens mellan det nationella provets bedömningsmatris och kursplanen i svenska som andraspråk 1 (SVA 1) vad gäller bedömningen av elevens språkliga kvaliteter. Dessutom går det att dra slutsatsen att de krav på anpassning till det retoriska sammanhanget också är krav som återfinns i kursplanen men beskrivs mer allmänt i ett språkutvecklande perspektiv vilket underlättar tolkningen av kunskapskraven i kursplanen. Studien visar hur eleven för att få det lägsta betyget (E) behöver kunskaper om en retorisk framställning och att eleven kan presentera ett förberett innehåll inför en publik.

Kvinnans tillit till amning : En enkätstudie på BB och Eftervårdsmottagningen i Värmland

Amningsfrekvensen i Värmland sjunker och är låg jämfört med riket. En bidragande faktor till den sjunkande amningsfrekvensen är bristen på tillit till amning. Det är viktigt att kunna identifiera kvinnor med låg tillit till amning för att vända den sjunkande amningsfrekvensen och stärka kvinnan i rollen som moder. Syfte: Syftet med denna studie var att undersöka kvinnors tillit till amning på Barnbördshuset (BB) och Eftervårdsmottagningen i Värmland. Med enkäten BSES-SF identifieras kvinnor med låg tillit till amning och kvinnor som behöver ett ökat amningsstöd efter förlossning. Design/Metod: Studien utfördes med kvantitativ ansats. Data inhämtades från enkäten BSES-SF som besvarats av 70 kvinnor på BB och Eftervårdsmottagningen i Värmland. All data analyserades genom SPSS. Resultat: De flesta kvinnor ansåg att det var mycket viktigt med en fungerande amning och när kvinnorna skattade amningens betydelse framkom ett medelvärde på 8,66 där 0=inte alls viktigt och 10=mycket viktigt. Kvinnor som ammat tidigare skattade sin upplevda amningserfarenhet som mycket god. Varje enskild fråga på BSES-SF jämfördes mellan kvinnorna som vårdats på BB och Eftervårdsmottagningen. Det framkom en skillnad på åtta frågor där kvinnorna på Eftervårdsmottagningen skattade en högre tillit till amning jämfört med kvinnorna på BB. Utifrån totalsumman på BSES-SF med ett poängintervall mellan 14-70, framkom det att tilliten till amning skattades högre hos kvinnorna på Eftervårdsmottagningen (M=56,54) än på BB (M=49,88). Slutsats och klinisk tillämpbarhet: BSES-SF kan utifrån studiens resultat vara ett användbart verktyg, framförallt på BB där kvinnorna skattat en lägre tillit till amning. Förstföderskor och omföderskor som upplevt en komplicerad förlossning kan vara i behov av större insatser av amningsstöd. Studiens resultat kan medföra att barnmorskan blir extra uppmärksam på de kvinnor vars amning inte fungerar och där extra stöd behövs för att öka tilliten.

Sexscener med filmmusik av kvinnliga kompositörer : En undersökning av filmmusik i sexscener i fyra moderna västerländska filmer, där USA är ett av produktionsländerna

I detta arbete analyseras filmmusiken, skriven av kvinnliga kompositörer, som spelas i sexscener i fyra moderna spelfilmer där USA är ett av produktionsländerna. Vassili Neplokhs analysmetod består av fem musikaliska parametrar. Författaren sammanställer även forskning som berör ämnet inom bland annat musikpsykologi och utökar en redan fungerande metod med fler parametrar som grundar sig i musikpsykologi. Avslutningsvis jämförs studiens resultat med resultat av en tidigare utförd undersökning av manliga kompositörers filmmusik i sexscener.

Consenso em reumatologia pediátrica: parte I - definição dos critérios de doença inativa e remissão em artrite idiopática juvenil/artrite reumatóide juvenil

Não há critérios universalmente aceitos para a remissão clínica em artrite idiopática juvenil/artrite reumatóide juvenil (AIJ/ARJ). OBJETIVO: formar consenso sobre estes critérios. MÉTODOS: foi utilizado um inquérito pelo método Delphi para reunir os critérios vigentes e utilizados por especialistas em reumatologia pediátrica (RP) no mundo todo. A análise dos resultados constituiu a base para uma Consensus Conference utilizando a nominal group technique (NGT) para alcançar o consenso nas questões não resolvidas após a análise dos questionários deste inquérito. Cento e trinta RP de 34 países responderam ao inquérito e 20 RP de nove países elegeram os critérios durante dois dias, em processo de discussão estruturada, para formar consenso pela NGT. RESULTADOS: os critérios de doença inativa deveriam incluir: 1) nenhuma articulação com artrite em atividade; 2) ausência de febre, rash, serosite, esplenomegalia ou linfadenopatia generalizada atribuída à AIJ/ARJ; 3) ausência de uveíte em atividade; 4) VHS ou PCR negativas (se ambos forem testados, ambos devem ser normais); 5) a avaliação global pelo médico deve indicar o melhor escore possível, indicando doença inativa. CONCLUSÕES: de acordo com o voto de consenso, seis meses contínuos de doença inativa são necessários para se considerar um paciente em estado de remissão com medicação; 12 meses contínuos de doença inativa e sem medicação são necessários para considerar um paciente em estado de remissão sem medicação. O critério para remissão sem medicação deve prever com acurácia de 95% a probabilidade inferior a 20% de recaída em cinco anos.

Subsídios para a gênese da imprensa musical brasileira e para a história do Hino da Independência, de Dom Pedro I

Este artigo tem por objetivos rever, mediante análise bibliográfica e de fontes primárias, a história de um de nossos símbolos musicais pátrios, o Hino da Independência, de Dom Pedro I, bem como trazer novos subsídios para o estudo da gênese da imprensa musical brasileira. Tem, igualmente, por escopo divulgar peculiaridades de uma antiga e pouco conhecida partitura desse hino, já não mais presentes em modernas edições de tal composição.

Influência dos sistemas de retenção e da inclinação do rebordo residual em casos de próteses conjugadas Classe I mandibular: análise da distribuição das tensões pelo método da fotoelasticidade

Pós-graduação em Odontologia - FOA

COMT Met (158) modulates facial emotion recognition in bipolar I disorder mood episodes

Background: One of the many cognitive deficits reported in bipolar disorder (BD) patients is facial emotion recognition (FER), which has recently been associated with dopaminergic catabolism. Catechol-O-methyltransferase (COMT) is one of the main enzymes involved in the metabolic degradation of dopamine (DA) in the prefrontal cortex (PFC). The COMT gene polymorphism rs4680 (Val(158)Met) Met allele is associated with decreased activity of this enzyme in healthy controls. The objective of this study was to evaluate the influence of Val(158)Met on FER during manic and depressive episodes in BD patients and in healthy controls. Materials and methods: 64 BD type I patients (39 in manic and 25 in depressive episodes) and 75 healthy controls were genotyped for COMT rs4680 and assessed for FER using the Ekman 60 Faces (EK60) and Emotion Hexagon (Hx) tests. Results: Bipolar manic patients carrying the Met allele recognized fewer surprised faces, while depressed patients with the Met allele recognized fewer "angry" and "happy" faces. Healthy homozygous subjects with the Met allele had higher FER scores on the Hx total score, as well as on "disgust" and "angry" faces than other genotypes. Conclusion: This is the first study suggesting that COMT rs4680 modulates FER differently during BD episodes and in healthy controls. This provides evidence that PFC DA is part of the neurobiological mechanisms of social cognition. Further studies on other COMT polymorphisms that include euthymic BD patients are warranted. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00969. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.