Load estimation with uncertainties from opportunistic sampling data: A semiparametric approach

We consider estimating the total load from frequent flow data but less frequent concentration data. There are numerous load estimation methods available, some of which are captured in various online tools. However, most estimators are subject to large biases statistically, and their associated uncertainties are often not reported. This makes interpretation difficult and the estimation of trends or determination of optimal sampling regimes impossible to assess. In this paper, we first propose two indices for measuring the extent of sampling bias, and then provide steps for obtaining reliable load estimates that minimizes the biases and makes use of informative predictive variables. The key step to this approach is in the development of an appropriate predictive model for concentration. This is achieved using a generalized rating-curve approach with additional predictors that capture unique features in the flow data, such as the concept of the first flush, the location of the event on the hydrograph (e.g. rise or fall) and the discounted flow. The latter may be thought of as a measure of constituent exhaustion occurring during flood events. Forming this additional information can significantly improve the predictability of concentration, and ultimately the precision with which the pollutant load is estimated. We also provide a measure of the standard error of the load estimate which incorporates model, spatial and/or temporal errors. This method also has the capacity to incorporate measurement error incurred through the sampling of flow. We illustrate this approach for two rivers delivering to the Great Barrier Reef, Queensland, Australia. One is a data set from the Burdekin River, and consists of the total suspended sediment (TSS) and nitrogen oxide (NO(x)) and gauged flow for 1997. The other dataset is from the Tully River, for the period of July 2000 to June 2008. For NO(x) Burdekin, the new estimates are very similar to the ratio estimates even when there is no relationship between the concentration and the flow. However, for the Tully dataset, by incorporating the additional predictive variables namely the discounted flow and flow phases (rising or recessing), we substantially improved the model fit, and thus the certainty with which the load is estimated.

An extended regression approach to estimating loads and their uncertainties in Great Barrier Reef catchments

There are numerous load estimation methods available, some of which are captured in various online tools. However, most estimators are subject to large biases statistically, and their associated uncertainties are often not reported. This makes interpretation difficult and the estimation of trends or determination of optimal sampling regimes impossible to assess. In this paper, we first propose two indices for measuring the extent of sampling bias, and then provide steps for obtaining reliable load estimates by minimizing the biases and making use of possible predictive variables. The load estimation procedure can be summarized by the following four steps: - (i) output the flow rates at regular time intervals (e.g. 10 minutes) using a time series model that captures all the peak flows; - (ii) output the predicted flow rates as in (i) at the concentration sampling times, if the corresponding flow rates are not collected; - (iii) establish a predictive model for the concentration data, which incorporates all possible predictor variables and output the predicted concentrations at the regular time intervals as in (i), and; - (iv) obtain the sum of all the products of the predicted flow and the predicted concentration over the regular time intervals to represent an estimate of the load. The key step to this approach is in the development of an appropriate predictive model for concentration. This is achieved using a generalized regression (rating-curve) approach with additional predictors that capture unique features in the flow data, namely the concept of the first flush, the location of the event on the hydrograph (e.g. rise or fall) and cumulative discounted flow. The latter may be thought of as a measure of constituent exhaustion occurring during flood events. The model also has the capacity to accommodate autocorrelation in model errors which are the result of intensive sampling during floods. Incorporating this additional information can significantly improve the predictability of concentration, and ultimately the precision with which the pollutant load is estimated. We also provide a measure of the standard error of the load estimate which incorporates model, spatial and/or temporal errors. This method also has the capacity to incorporate measurement error incurred through the sampling of flow. We illustrate this approach using the concentrations of total suspended sediment (TSS) and nitrogen oxide (NOx) and gauged flow data from the Burdekin River, a catchment delivering to the Great Barrier Reef. The sampling biases for NOx concentrations range from 2 to 10 times indicating severe biases. As we expect, the traditional average and extrapolation methods produce much higher estimates than those when bias in sampling is taken into account.

Flood related loss and recovery of intertidal seagrass meadows in southern Queensland, Australia

The loss and recovery of intertidal seagrass meadows were assessed following the flood related catastrophic loss of seagrass meadows in February 1999 in the Sandy Strait, Queensland. Region wide recovery rates of intertidal meadows following the catastrophic disturbance were assessed by mapping seagrass abundance in the northern Great Sandy Strait region prior to and on 3 occasions after widespread loss of seagrass. Meadow-scale assessments of seagrass loss and recovery focussed on two existing Zostera capricorni monitoring meadows in the region. Mapping surveys showed that approximately 90% of intertidal seagrasses in the northern Great Sandy Strait disappeared after the February 1999 flooding of the Mary River. Full recovery of all seagrass meadows took 3 years. At the two study sites (Urangan and Wanggoolba Creek) the onset of Z. capricorni germination following the loss of seagrass occurred 14 months post-flood at Wanggoolba Creek, and at Urangan it took 20 months for germination to occur. By February 2001 (24 months post-flood) seagrass abundance at Wanggoolba Creek sites was comparable to pre-flood abundance levels and full recovery at Urangan sites was complete in August 2001 (31 months post-flood). Reduced water quality characterised by 2–3 fold increases in turbidity and nutrient concentrations during the 6 months following the flood was followed by a 95% loss of seagrass meadows in the region. Reductions in available light due to increased flood associated turbidity in February 1999 were the likely cause of seagrass loss in the Great Sandy Strait region, southern Queensland. Although seasonal cues influence the germination of Z. capricorni, the temporal variation in the onset of seed germination between sites suggests that germination following seagrass loss may be dependent on other factors (eg. physical and chemical characteristics of sediments and water). Elevated dissolved nitrogen concentrations during 1999 at Wanggoolba Creek suggest that this site received higher loads of sediments and nutrients from flood waters than Urangan. The germination of seeds at Wanggoolba Creek one year prior to Urangan coincides with relatively low suspended sediment concentrations in Wanggoolba Creek waters. The absence of organic rich sediments at Urangan for many months following their removal during the 1999 flood may also have inhibited seed germination. Data from population cohort analyses and population growth rates showed that rhizome weight and rhizome elongation rates increased over time, consistent with rapid growth during increases in temperature and light availability from May to October

Atrazine degradation and transport in runoff on a Black Vertosol

In Australia communities are concerned about atrazine being detected in drinking water supplies. It is important to understand mechanisms by which atrazine is transported from paddocks to waterways if we are to reduce movement of agricultural chemicals from the site of application. Two paddocks cropped with grain sorghum on a Black Vertosol were monitored for atrazine, potassium chloride (KCl) extractable atrazine, desethylatrazine (DEA), and desisopropylatrazine (DIA) at 4 soil depths (0-0.05, 0.05-0.10, 0.10-0.20, and 0.20-0.30 m) and in runoff water and runoff sediment. Atrazine + DEA + DIA (total atrazine) had a half-life in soil of 16-20 days, more rapid dissipation than in many earlier reports. Atrazine extracted in dilute potassium chloride, considered available for weed control, was initially 34% of the total and had a half-life of 15-20 days until day 30, after which it dissipated rapidly with a half life of 6 days. We conclude that, in this region, atrazine may not pose a risk for groundwater contamination, as only 0.5% of applied atrazine moved deeper than 0.20 m into the soil, where it dissipated rapidly. In runoff (including suspended sediment) atrazine concentrations were greatest during the first runoff event (57 days after application) (85 μg/L) and declined with time. After 160 days, the total atrazine lost in runoff was 0.4% of the initial application. The total atrazine concentration in runoff was strongly related to the total concentration in soil, as expected. Even after 98% of the KCl-extractable atrazine had dissipated (and no longer provided weed control), runoff concentrations still exceeded the human health guideline value of 40 μg/L. For total atrazine in soil (0-0.05 m), the range for coefficient of soil sorption (Kd) was 1.9-28.4 mL/g and for soil organic carbon sorption (KOC) was 100-2184 mL/g, increasing with time of contact with the soil and rapid dissipation of the more soluble, available phase. Partition coefficients in runoff for total atrazine were initially 3, increasing to 32 and 51 with time, values for DEA being half these. To minimise atrazine losses, cultural practices that maximise rain infiltration, and thereby minimise runoff, and minimise concentrations in the soil surface should be adopted.

Nutrient loss and water quality under extensive grazing in the upper Burdekin river catchment, North Queensland

Increased sediment and nutrient losses resulting from unsustainable grazing management in the Burdekin River catchment are major threats to water quality in the Great Barrier Reef Lagoon. To test the effects of grazing management on soil and nutrient loss, five 1 ha mini-catchments were established in 1999 under different grazing strategies on a sedimentary landscape near Charters Towers. Reference samples were also collected from watercourses in the Burdekin catchment during major flow events.Soil and nutrient loss were relatively low across all grazing strategies due to a combination of good cover, low slope and low rainfall intensities. Total soil loss varied from 3 to 20 kg haˉ¹ per event while losses of N and P ranged from 10 to 1900 g haˉ¹ and from 1 to 71 g haˉ¹ per event respectively. Water quality of runoff was considered moderate across all strategies with relatively low levels of total suspended sediment (range: 8-1409 mg lˉ¹), total N (range: 101-4000 ug lˉ¹) and total P (range: 14-609 ug lˉ¹). However, treatment differences are likely to emerge with time as the impacts of the different grazing strategies on land condition become more apparent.Samples collected opportunistically from rivers and creeks during flow events displayed significantly higher levels of total suspended sediment (range: 10-6010 mg lˉ¹), total N (range: 650-6350 ug lˉ¹) and total P (range: 50-1500 ug lˉ¹) than those collected at the grazing trial. These differences can largely be attributed to variation in slope, geology and cover between the grazing trial and different catchments. In particular, watercourses draining hillier, grano-diorite landscapes with low cover had markedly higher sediment and nutrient loads compared to those draining flatter, sedimentary landscapes.These preliminary data suggest that on relatively flat, sedimentary landscapes, extensive cattle grazing is compatible with achieving water quality targets, provided high levels of ground cover are maintained. In contrast, sediment and nutrient loss under grazing on more erodable land types is cause for serious concern. Long-term empirical research and monitoring will be essential to quantify the impacts of changed land management on water quality in the spatially and temporally variable Burdekin River catchment.

Agricultural Best Management Practices and Treatment Wetlands in the Gabilan Watershed: Project Asessment and Evaluation Plan

Several local groups have come together for this project to addresses water quality concerns in the Gabilan Watershed – also known as the Reclamation Ditch Watershed (Fig. 1.1). These are Moss Landing Marine Laboratories (MLML), the Resource Conservation District of Monterey County (RCDMC), Central Coast Watershed Studies (CCoWS), Return of the Natives (RON), Community Alliance with Family Farmers (CAFF), and Coastal Conservation and Research (CC&R). The primary goal is to reduce non-point source pollution – particularly suspended sediment, nutrients, and pesticides – and thereby improve near-shore coastal waters of Moss Landing Harbor and the Monterey Bay. (Document contains 33 pages)

Impacts of inorganic turbidity on diquat efficacy against Egeria densa

In clear water, diquat [6,7-dihydrodipyrido (1,2-1a:2',1'-c) pyrazinediium dibromide] provides excellent submersed Plant control at low concentrations, such as <0.5 mg active ingredient (ai) L-1: however. turbid water conditions can interfere with the activity and effectiveness of this herbicide. Little work has been done to examine what ranges of turbidity caused by different Suspended sediment types affect diquat efficacy against a target species. A growth chamber study was conducted rising diquat against the submersed macrophyte -egeria (Egeria densa Planch.) under a range Of turbid conditions. Two materials were used to create turbid beater conditions: 100% bentonite clay for a "worst-case" scenario and a natural partial-clav (20% clay). Results indicated that a high rate of diquat (2 mg ai L-1) controlled egeria under relatively low levels of turbidity (5-10 NTU) using bentonite clay: however. higher levels (25 to 50 NTU) of turbidity essentially blocked effectiveness of diquat when applied at all rates tested (0.5. 1, 2 mg ai L-1). When using a natural partial-clay sediment, rates of 1 to 2 mg ai L-1 diquat provided good control of egeria in moderately turbid water (15 NTU). Additional evaluations rising different clay types would be useful to determine the effect of inorganic turbidity oil diquat efficacy.

A Synoptic View of a Coastal Plain Estuary.

During October, 1972 the Patuxent River Estuary was monitored intensively and synoptically over two tidal cycles to determine the spatial and temporal patterns of various hydrodynamic, chemical and biological features. Forty-one depths at eleven stations along nine transects were sampled simultaneously at hourly intervals for salinity, temperature, dissolved oxygen, chlorohyll a, particulate nitrogen, nitrate, nitrite, total kjeldahl nitrogen, ammonia, particulate carbohydrate, dissolved organic carbon, total hydrolizable phosphorous, dissolved inorganic phosphorous, suspended sediment, particle size distribution, and zooplankton. Tidal velocity was continuously monitored at each depth by recording current meters. Riverine input and meteorological conditions were relatively stable for two weeks preceeding the deployment. This communication describes the calculation of the intrinsic rates of change of the observed variables from their measured distributions in the Estuary. The steady-state, one-dimensional equation of species continuity is employed to separate the advection and tidal dispersion of a hydrodynamically passive substance frbm its intrinsic rate of change at point. A new spatial transform is introduced for the purpose of interpolation and extrapolation of data.The intrinsic rate of change profiles reveal a region of heavy bloom activity in the upper estuary and a secondary bloom near the point in the River that most of the suspended material settles out. The changes in ammonia and nitrates are highly correlated to the productivity patterns. Phosphorous rates are less closely correlated to productivity. The perturbations that the Chalk Point steam electric power plant have on the heat and oxygen balances are easily discernible.

Infiltration of fine and coarse sand into an open-work gravel bed

The siltation of an experimental gravel bed, with three grades of sand moving in suspension and as bedload, was examined. The rate of infiltration of sand into the void space of the gravel was determined under differing conditions of discharge, water depth, and velocity (jointly expressed as variation in the Froude Number) and suspended sediment concentration. The downstream reduction in siltation from the point source was also examined.

Discharge and turbidity of the regulated River Tees. Variance spectrum analysis

High suspended sediment loads may be deleterious to adult salmonids and invertebrates in gravel-bedded streams. Further, the accumulation of fine material in the interstices of the gravel may have an adverse impact on the recruitment of the young stages of salmonids. It is important therefore not only to quantify the rates and degrees of silting but also to identify sediment sources and to determine both, the frequency of sediment inputs to the system and the duration of high sediment concentrations. This report explores the application of variance spectrum analysis to the isolation of sediment periodicities. For the particular river chosen for examination the method demonstrated the essentially undisturbed nature of the catchment. The regulated river chosen for examination is the River Tees in Northern England. Variance spectrum analysis was applied to a series of over 4000 paired daily turbidity and discharge readings.

Observação do transporte de sedimentos em suspensão ao longo do Canal Norte do rio Amazonas durante condições de baixa descarga (outubro 2008)

The Amazon river, located in northernBrazil, discharges between 80,000 and 250,000 m3s-1 of water onto the adjacent shelf, creating a plume of brackish water that extends hundreds of kilometers away from the river mouth. This river also carries a large amount of fine sediments to the ocean where fluid mud has been found in the topset and upper foreset layers of the subaqueous delta formed on the mid-shelf. One of the main goals of this dissertation is to describe how turbulence and suspended sediment concentration vary along the Northern Channel of the Amazon river. Water column measurements were carried out in October 2008 at six anchor stations (P1, P3, P5, P6, P8 e P9) located seaward of the river mouth; P1 and P9 were 125 km apart. Each station was occupied during 13 hours during which current speed and direction were continuously sampled with a 600 kHz Teledyne-RDI ADCP; hourly profiles of temperature, salinity, turbidity and depth were also obtained. Water samples were collected for determination of Suspended Particulate Matter (SPM) concentration and calibration of the turbidity sensor. Current speed reached values above 1.5 m s1 in the along-channel direction (NE-SW); a remarkable ebb-flood asymmetry was observed and flows were strongly ebb-dominated. Throughout the water column, SPM concentration at stations P1 and P3 varied between 100 and 300 mg L1 in association with the presence of freshwater. In contrast, a strong salinity gradient was observed between stations P6 and P9, coinciding with the occurrence of concentrations of SPM above 10 g L-1 (fluid mud). At stations P3, P5 and P6, interface between freshwater from the Amazon river and salt water from the continental shelf, shear stresses wereestimated through four diferents methods: Reynolds, Turbulent Kinetic Energy (TKE), modified TKE and Quadratic Law; in the nearbed region (3 mab) the computed values varied between 0 and 3 Pa. At the three stations (P3, P5 and P6) the lowest and the highest shear stress values were obtained through, respectively, the Reynolds and the TKE methods. Over the whole water column turbulence intensity was estimated through the standard deviation of the turbulent component of the along-channel current velocity (root-mean square of u); from these values, it was estimated the turbulent dissipation of energy (G), whose values at 3 mab varied between zero and 20 s1.

Variabilidade espacial e temporal da distribuição do material particulado em suspensão nas proximidades do canal de navegação da baía de Sepetiba (RJ)

Este estudo teve como objetivo principal caracterizar os padrões de distribuição do material particulado em suspensão ao longo da baía de Sepetiba, associando as variabilidades espaciais e temporais com ciclos de maré. Além disso, o estudo também avalia a utilização de equipamentos acústicos como ferramentas à estimativa das concentrações de material particulado em suspensão. A aquisição de dados foi realizada num total de sete campanhas realizadas entre novembro de 2010 e dezembro de 2011. Sete estações foram posicionadas nas proximidades do canal principal de acesso à baía, ao longo de um transecto que se estende do seu interior até sua desembocadura. As sete campanhas amostrais se distribuem em duas séries longas, de 13 e 25 horas, de aquisição em um ponto fixo, e cinco amostragens ao longo das estações. A aquisição de dados envolve: coleta de amostras de água, utilizadas nas estimativas das concentrações de material particulado; coleta de sedimentos de fundo para caracterização granulométrica das estações amostradas; perfis de parâmetros físico-químicos; dados de correntômetria adquiridos junto ao fundo. O processamento das amostras de água e sedimentos foi realizado no laboratório de Geologia Marinha da Faculdade de Oceanografia da Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro. As concentrações de material particulado em suspensão foram utilizadas na calibração de sensores acústicos e óticos, permitindo uma avaliação espaço-temporal mais detalhada dos padrões de distribuição junto ao fundo e ao longo da coluna dágua. Os dados observados permitiram identificar que as maiores concentrações de material particulado em suspensão ocorrem em condições de maré enchente, e estão associadas à assimetria de maré. A baía pode ser dividida em dois setores: um na porção mais interna, onde se observou maior influência do aporte fluvial, onde as concentrações de material particulado em suspensão respondem à propagação da pluma do canal de São Francisco; e outro que se estende da porção central até sua desembocadura, onde predomina o domínio marinho, com influência de eventos oriundos da plataforma continental. Também pode ser identificada a influência do fenômeno La Niña, que provavelmente foi responsável por: altas salinidades encontradas no interior da baía e ocorrência da Água Central do Atlântico Sul à baixas profundidades. Quanto à utilização de equipamentos acústicos nas estimativas das concentrações de material particulado, os dados se demonstraram ricos em detalhes, que permitiram avaliar o comportamento do material particulado junto ao fundo frente a diferentes condições de maré, turbulência e incidência de oscilações.

Aplicação de múltiplas ferramentas no estudo do transporte de sedimentos na margem interna da restinga da Marambaia (baía de Sepetiba, RJ)

Dados sedimentológicos e hidrodinâmicos foram utilizados para estudar a dinâmica sedimentar da margem interna da restinga da Marambaia (baía de Sepetiba, Rio de Janeiro, SE Brasil). Foram realizadas três campanhas amostrais para coleta de sedimentos ao longo da restinga da Marambaia e na área submersa adjacente. Adicionalmente, em dezembro de 2013, três fundeios simultâneos para aquisição de dados hidrodinâmicos foram conduzidos paralelamente à restinga, ao longo da profundidade média de 6,5 metros. As medições abrangeram dois ciclos de maré (25 horas), incluindo perfilagem com CTDs, perfilagem correntométrica e coleta de amostras de água para determinação das concentrações do material particulado em suspensão. A partir do processamento das amostras de sedimentos em laboratório, foram obtidos os parâmetros estatísticos (média, desvio-padrão e assimetria) para o detalhamento da caracterização sedimentológica da área de estudo, bem como a aplicação de um modelo de tendência direcional de transporte de sedimentos (GisedTrend). A restinga apresenta areias médias e bem selecionadas, enquanto as amostras coletadas na porção submersa, em profundidades maiores que 2 m, passam de areias finas e bem selecionadas a siltes finos e mal selecionados em maiores profundidades. Quatro casos de tendência de transporte foram explorados em um total de 14 possibilidades e os mais significativos foram analisados com o intuito de identificar áreas de acumulação e remoção de sedimentos, podendo estar associados aos processos responsáveis pelo transporte de sedimentos, tais como correntes geradas pelos ventos locais, marés e dispersão de plumas de sedimentos em suspensão. Os dados hidrodinâmicos, durante o período amostrado, permitiram observar o complexo padrão de circulação existente, especialmente na área adjacente à área central da restinga. Dentre as observações realizadas, verificou-se a ocorrência de assimetria da maré, fato já documentado em trabalhos anteriores conduzidos próximo ao principal canal de acesso à baia, com períodos de enchente mais curtos e períodos de vazante mais longos. Diferentemente do que foi reportado nestes trabalhos, os períodos de vazante foram associados às correntes de maior intensidade. As concentrações de material particulado em suspensão situaram-se, em média, entre 10 e 20 mg/L tanto em superfície como próximo ao fundo; no entanto, suas variações temporais não apresentaram qualquer relação com as fases da maré. Possíveis áreas de convergência e divergência da circulação / células de transporte de sedimentos foram identificadas e comparadas aos vetores de tendência de transporte obtidos através do modelo GisedTrend, com resultados satisfatórios.

波浪作用下悬移质泥沙运动的两相流数值模型

该文采用基于水沙两相紊流的数值模型对波浪作用下的悬移质泥沙运动进行研究. 基本方程中将水相和颗粒相通过相间作用力进行耦合, 合理地考虑了相间相对运动的影响. 数值计算方法为有限体积法, 对流项处理利用了三阶精度的QUICK格式, 离散方程组求解采用的是TDMA迭代方法. 计算得到的悬移质泥沙垂线时均计算值与不同尺度的水槽实验数据吻合很好, 表明数学模型及其计算方法对于低浓度水沙两相问题是合理的. 该研究还探讨了悬沙浓度、泥沙沉降速度以及各种相间作用力随时间的分布规律

Coherence between solar activity and the East Asian winter monsoon variability in the past 8000 years from Yangtze River-derived mud in the East China Sea

AMS(14)C dating and grain-size analysis for Core PC-6, located in the middle of a mud area on the inner shelf of the East China Sea (ECS), were used to rebuild the Holocene history of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM). The 7.5-m core recorded the history of environmental changes during the postglacial transgression. The core's mud section (the upper 450 cm) has been formed mainly by suspended sediment delivered from the Yangtze River mouth by the ECS Winter Coastal Current (ECSWCC) since 7.6 kyr BP. Using a mathematical method called "grain size vs. standard deviatioW', we can divide the Core PC-6's grain-size distribution into two populations at about 28 mu m. The fine population (< 28 mu m) is considered to be transported by the ECSWCC as suspended loads. Content of the fine population changes little and represents a stable sedimentary environment in accord with the present situation. Thus, variation of mean grain-size from the fine population would reflect the strength of ECSWCC, which is mainly controlled by the East Asian winter monsoon. Abrupt increasing mean grain size in the mud section is inferred to be transported by sudden strengthened ECSWCC, which was caused by the strengthened EAWM. Thus, the high resolution mean grain-size variation might serve as a proxy for reconstruction of the EAWM. A good correlation between sunspot change and the mean grain-size of suspended fine population suggests that one of the primary controls on centennial- to decadal-scale changes of the EAWM in the past 8 ka is the variations of sun irradiance, i.e., the EAWM will increase in intensity when the number of sunspots decreases. Spectral analyses of the mean grain-size time series of Core PC-6 show statistically significant periodicities centering on 2463, 1368, 128, 106, 100, 88-91, 7678, and 70-72 years. The EAWM and the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) agree with each other well on these cycles, and the East Asian Monsoon (EAM) and the Indian Monsoon also share in concurrent cycles in Holocene, which are in accord with the changes of the sun irradiance. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.