Intracranial Aneurysm Rupture Is Predicted by Measures of Solar Activity.

OBJECTIVE The cause precipitating intracranial aneurysm rupture remains unknown in many cases. It has been observed that aneurysm ruptures are clustered in time, but the trigger mechanism remains obscure. Because solar activity has been associated with cardiovascular mortality and morbidity, we decided to study its association to aneurysm rupture in the Swiss population. METHODS Patient data were extracted from the Swiss SOS database, at time of analysis covering 918 consecutive patients with angiography-proven aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage treated at 7 Swiss neurovascular centers between January 1, 2009, and December 31, 2011. The daily rupture frequency (RF) was correlated to the absolute amount and the change in various parameters of interest representing continuous measurements of solar activity (radioflux [F10.7 index], solar proton flux, solar flare occurrence, planetary K-index/planetary A-index, Space Environment Services Center [SESC] sunspot number and sunspot area) using Poisson regression analysis. RESULTS During the period of interest, there were 517 days without recorded aneurysm rupture. There were 398, 139, 27, 12, 1, and 1 days with 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 ruptures per day. Poisson regression analysis demonstrated a significant correlation of F10.7 index and RF (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 1.006303; standard error (SE) 0.0013201; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.003719-1.008894; P < 0.001), according to which every 1-unit increase of the F10.7 index increased the count for an aneurysm to rupture by 0.63%. A likewise statistically significant relationship of both the SESC sunspot number (IRR 1.003413; SE 0.0007913; 95% CI 1.001864-1.004965; P < 0.001) and the sunspot area (IRR 1.000419; SE 0.0000866; 95% CI 1.000249-1.000589; P < 0.001) emerged. All other variables analyzed showed no significant correlation with RF. CONCLUSIONS We found greater radioflux, SESC sunspot number, and sunspot area to be associated with an increased count of aneurysm rupture. The clinical meaningfulness of this statistical association must be interpreted carefully and future studies are warranted to rule out a type-1 error.

Is intracranial aneurysm rupture related to solar activity?

Objective: A number of intrinsic and extrinsic risk factors for the rupture of intracranial aneurysms have been identified. Still, the cause precipitating aneurysm rupture remains unknown in many cases. In addition, it has been observed that aneurysm ruptures are clustered in time but the trigger mechanism remains obscure. As solar activity has been associated with cardiovascular mortality and morbidity we decided to study ist association to aneurysm rupture in the Swiss population. Method: Patient data was extracted from the Swiss SOS database, at time of analysis covering 918 patients with angiography-proven aSAH treated at seven Swiss neurovascular centers between 01/01/2009 – 12/31/2011. The number of aneurysm rupture per day, week, month (Daily/Weekly/Monthly Rupture Frequency = RF) was measured and correlated to the absolute amount and the change in various parameters of interest representing continuous measurements of solar activity (radioflux (F10.7 index), solar proton flux, solar flare occurrence, planetary K-index/planetary A-index) using Poisson regression analysis. Results: Of a consecutive series of 918 cases of SAH, precise determination of the date of symptom onset was possible in 816 (88.9%). During the period of interest there were 517 days without recorded aneurysm rupture. There were 398, 139, 27 and 12 days with 1, 2, 3, and 4 ruptures per day. Five or 6 ruptures were only noted on a single day each. Poisson regression analysis demonstrated a significant correlation of F10.7 index and aneurysm rupture (incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 1.006303; standard error (SE) 0.0013201; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.003719 – 1.008894; p<0.001), according to which every 1-unit increase of the F10.7 index increased the count for an aneurysm to rupture by 0.63%. As the F10.7 index is known to correlate well with the Space Environment Services Center (SESC) sunspot number, we performed additional analyses on SESC sunspot number and sunspot area. Here, a likewise statistically significant relationship of both the SESC sunspot number (IRR 1.003413; SE 0.0007913; 95%CI 1.001864 – 1.004965; p<0.001) and the sunspot area (IRR 1.000419; SE 0.0000866; 95%CI 1.000249 – 1.000589; p<0.001) emerged. All other variables analyzed showed no correlation with RF. Conclusions: Using valid methods, we found higher radioflux, sunspot number and sunspot area to be associated with an increased count of aneurysm rupture. Since we were using rupture frequencies rather than incidences and because we cannot explain the physiological basis of this statistical association, the clinical meaningfulness of this statistical association must be interpreted carefully. Future studies are warranted to rule out a type-1 error.

Stable isotope stacks from GRIP and GISP ice cores

Recent efforts to link the isotopic composition of snow in Greenland with meteorological and climatic parameters have indicated that relatively local information such as observed annual temperatures from coastal Greenland sites, as well as more synoptic scale features such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the temperature seesaw between Jakobshaven, Greenland, and Oslo, Norway, are significantly correlated with d18O and dD values from the past few hundred years measured in ice cores. In this study we review those efforts and then use a new record of isotope values from the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 and Greenland Ice Core Project sites at Summit, Greenland, to compare with meteorological and climatic parameters. This new record consists of six individual annually resolved isotopic records which have been average to produce a Summit stacked isotope record. The stacked record is significantly correlated with local Greenland temperatures over the past century (r=0.471), as well as a number of other records including temperatures and pressures from specific locations as well as temperature and pressure patterns such as the temperature seesaw and the North Atlantic Oscillation. A multiple linear regression of the stacked isotope record with a number of meteorological and climatic parameters in the North Atlantic region reveals that five variables contribute significantly to the variance in the isotope record: winter NAO, solar irradiance (as recorded by sunspot numbers), average Greenland coastal temperature, sea surface temperature in the moisture source region for Summit (30°-20°N), and the annual temperature seesaw between Jakobshaven and Oslo. Combined, these variables yield a correlation coefficient of r=0.71, explaining half of the variance in the stacked isotope record.

Sr/Ca ratios and oxygen isotopes from sclerosponges

We investigate aragonitic skeletons of the Caribbean sclerosponge Ceratoporella nicholsoni from Jamaica, 20 m below sea level (mbsl), and Pedro Bank, 125 mbsl. We use d18O and Sr/Ca ratios as temperature proxies to reconstruct the Caribbean mixed layer and thermocline temperature history since 1400 A.D. with a decadal time resolution. Our age models are based on U/Th dating and locating of the radiocarbon bomb spike. The modern temperature difference between the two sites is used to tentatively calibrate the C. nicholsoni Sr/Ca thermometer. The resulting calibration points to a temperature sensitivity of Sr/Ca in C. nicholsoni aragonite of about -0.1 mmol/mol/K. Our Sr/Ca records reveal a pronounced warming from the early 19th to the late 20th century, both at 20 and 125 mbsl. Two temperature minima in the shallow water record during the late 17th and early 19th century correspond to the Maunder and Dalton sunspot minima, respectively. Another major cooling occurred in the late 16th century and is not correlatable with a sunspot minimum. The temperature contrast between the two sites decreased from the 14th century to a minimum in the late 17th century and subsequently increased to modern values in the early 19th century. This is interpreted as a long-term deepening and subsequent shoaling of the Caribbean thermocline. The major trends of the Sr/Ca records are reproduced in both specimens but hardly reflected in the d18O records.

Self-adaptive strategy based on fuzzy control systems for improving performance in wireless sensors networks

The solutions to cope with new challenges that societies have to face nowadays involve providing smarter daily systems. To achieve this, technology has to evolve and leverage physical systems automatic interactions, with less human intervention. Technological paradigms like Internet of Things (IoT) and Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS) are providing reference models, architectures, approaches and tools that are to support cross-domain solutions. Thus, CPS based solutions will be applied in different application domains like e-Health, Smart Grid, Smart Transportation and so on, to assure the expected response from a complex system that relies on the smooth interaction and cooperation of diverse networked physical systems. The Wireless Sensors Networks (WSN) are a well-known wireless technology that are part of large CPS. The WSN aims at monitoring a physical system, object, (e.g., the environmental condition of a cargo container), and relaying data to the targeted processing element. The WSN communication reliability, as well as a restrained energy consumption, are expected features in a WSN. This paper shows the results obtained in a real WSN deployment, based on SunSPOT nodes, which carries out a fuzzy based control strategy to improve energy consumption while keeping communication reliability and computational resources usage among boundaries.

Gestión dinámica de redes de sensores y actuadores

Este proyecto fin de carrera tiene como finalidad el diseño y la implementación de un sistema de monitorización y gestión dinámica de redes de sensores y actuadores inalámbricos (Wireless Sensor and Actuator Networks – WSAN) en base a la información de configuración almacenada en una base de datos sobre la cual un motor de detección vigila posibles cambios. Este motor informará de los cambios a la herramienta de gestión y monitorización de la WSAN para que sean llevados a cabo en la red desplegada. Este trabajo se enmarca en otro más amplio cuya finalidad es la demostración de la posibilidad de reconfigurar dinámicamente una WSAN utilizando los mecanismos propios de las Líneas de Productos Software Dinámicos (DSPL, por sus siglas en inglés). Se ha diseñado e implementado el software que proporciona los métodos necesarios para la comunicación y actuación sobre la red de sensores y actuadores inalámbricos, además de permitir el control de cada uno de los dispositivos pertenecientes a dicha red y que los dispositivos se incorporen a dicha red de manera autónoma. El desarrollo y pruebas de este proyecto fin de carrera se ha realizado utilizando una máquina virtual sobre la que se ha configurado convenientemente una plataforma que incluye un emulador de red de sensores y actuadores de tecnología SunSpot (Solarium) y todas las herramientas de desarrollo y ejecución necesarias (entre ellas, SunSpot SDK 6.0 y NetBeans). Esta máquina virtual ejecuta un sistema operativo Unix (Ubuntu Server 12.4) y facilita el rápido despliegue de las herramientas implementadas así como la integración de las mismas en desarrollos más amplios. En esta memoria se describe todo el proceso de diseño e implementación del software desarrollado, las conclusiones obtenidas de su ejecución y una guía de usuario para su despliegue y manejo. ABSTRACT. The aim of this project is the design and implementation of a system to monitor and dynamically manage a wireless sensor and actuator network (WSAN) in consistence with the configuration information stored in a database whose changes are monitored by a so-called monitoring engine. This engine informs the management and monitoring tool about the changes, in order for these to be carried out on the deployed network. This project is a part of a broader one aimed at demonstrating the ability to dynamically reconfigure a WSAN using the mechanisms of the Dynamic Software Product Lines (DSPL). A software has been designed and implemented which provides the methods to communicate with and actuate on the WSAN. It also allows to control each of the devices, as well as their autonomous incorporation to the network. Development and testing of this project was done using a virtual machine that has a conveniently configured platform which includes a SunSpot technology WSAN emulator (Solarium) as well as all the necessary development and implementation tools (including SunSpot 6.0 SDK and NetBeans). This virtual machine runs a Unix (Ubuntu Server 12.4) operating system and makes it easy to rapidly deploy the implemented tools and to integrate them into broader developments. This document explains the whole process of designing and implementing the software, the conclusions of execution and a user's manual.

Possible forcing of global temperature by the oceanic tides

An approximately decadal periodicity in surface air temperature is discernable in global observations from A.D. 1855 to 1900 and since A.D. 1945, but with a periodicity of only about 6 years during the intervening period. Changes in solar irradiance related to the sunspot cycle have been proposed to account for the former, but cannot account for the latter. To explain both by a single mechanism, we propose that extreme oceanic tides may produce changes in sea surface temperature at repeat periods, which alternate between approximately one-third and one-half of the lunar nodal cycle of 18.6 years. These alternations, recurring at nearly 90-year intervals, reflect varying slight degrees of misalignment and departures from the closest approach of the Earth with the Moon and Sun at times of extreme tide raising forces. Strong forcing, consistent with observed temperature periodicities, occurred at 9-year intervals close to perihelion (solar perigee) for several decades centered on A.D. 1881 and 1974, but at 6-year intervals for several decades centered on A.D. 1923. As a physical explanation for tidal forcing of temperature we propose that the dissipation of extreme tides increases vertical mixing of sea water, thereby causing episodic cooling near the sea surface. If this mechanism correctly explains near-decadal temperature periodicities, it may also apply to variability in temperature and climate on other times-scales, even millennial and longer.

Recherches astronomiques de l'Observatoire d'Utrecht.

Ceased with volume 18:2. Superseded by the Bullletin of the Astronomical Institutes of the Netherlands, Supplement series.

Theoretical studies of the mid-latitude ionosphere

Following a brief description of the atmosphere and ionosphere in Chapter I we describe how the equations of continuity and momentum for 0+, H+, He+, 0++ are derived from the formulations of St-Maurice and Schunk(1977) and Quegan et al.(1981) in Chapter II. In Chapter III we investigate the nature of the downward flow of protons in a collapsing post-sunset ionosphere. We derive an analytical form for the limiting temperature, we also note the importance of the polarization field term and concluded that the flow will remain subsonic for realistic conditions. The time-dependent behaviour of He+ under sunspot minimum conditions is investigated in Chapter IV. This is achieved by numerical solution of the 0+, H+ and,He+ continuity and momentum equations, treating He+ as a minor ion with 0+ , H+ as major ions. We found that He+ flows upwards during the day-time and downwards during the nighttime. He+ flux tube content reached a maximum on the 8th day of the integration period and started to decreasing. This is due to the large amount of H+ present at the late stages of the integration period which makes He+ unable to diffuse through the H+ layer away from the loss region. In Chapter V we investigate the behaviour of 0++ using sunspot maximum parameters. Although our results support the findings of Geis and Young (1981) that the large amounts of 0++ at the equator are caused mainly by thermal diffusion, the model used by Geis and Young overemphesizes the effect of thermal diffusion. The importance of 0++ - 0+ collision frequency is also noted. In Chapter VI we extend the work of Chapter IV, presenting a comparative study of H and He at sunspot minimum and sunspot maximum.In this last Chapter all three ions, O+ ,H+ and He+ , are treated theoretically as major ions and we concentrate mainly on light ion contents and fluxes. The results of this Chapter indicate that by assuming He+ as a minor ion we under-estimate He+ and over-estimate. H+. Some interesting features concerning the day to day behaviour of the light ion fluxes arise. In particular the day-time H+ fluxes decrease from day to day in contrast to the work of Murphy et al.(1976). In appendix.A we derive some analytical forms for the optical depth so that the models can include a realistic description of photoionization.

Não-extensividade no contexto da atividade magnética solar: o problema da assimetria hemisférica

Solar activity indicators, each as sunspot numbers, sunspot area and flares, over the Sun’s photosphere are not considered to be symmetric between the northern and southern hemispheres of the Sun. This behavior is also known as the North-South Asymmetry of the different solar indices. Among the different conclusions obtained by several authors, we can point that the N-S asymmetry is a real and systematic phenomenon and is not due to random variability. In the present work, the probability distributions from the Marshall Space Flight Centre (MSFC) database are investigated using a statistical tool arises from well-known Non-Extensive Statistical Mechanics proposed by C. Tsallis in 1988. We present our results and discuss their physical implications with the help of theoretical model and observations. We obtained that there is a strong dependence between the nonextensive entropic parameter q and long-term solar variability presents in the sunspot area data. Among the most important results, we highlight that the asymmetry index q reveals the dominance of the North against the South. This behavior has been discussed and confirmed by several authors, but in no time they have given such behavior to a statistical model property. Thus, we conclude that this parameter can be considered as an effective measure for diagnosing long-term variations of solar dynamo. Finally, our dissertation opens a new approach for investigating time series in astrophysics from the perspective of non-extensivity.

Magnetic Flux Cancellation in Ellerman Bombs

Ellerman Bombs (EBs) are often found to be co-spatial with bipolar photospheric magnetic fields. We use Hα imaging spectroscopy along with Fe i 6302.5 Å spectropolarimetry from the Swedish 1 m Solar Telescope (SST), combined with data from the Solar Dynamic Observatory, to study EBs and the evolution of the local magnetic fields at EB locations. EBs are found via an EB detection and tracking algorithm. Using NICOLE inversions of the spectropolarimetric data, we find that, on average, (3.43 ± 0.49) × 1024 erg of stored magnetic energy disappears from the bipolar region during EB burning. The inversions also show flux cancellation rates of 1014–1015 Mx s‑1 and temperature enhancements of 200 K at the detection footpoints. We investigate the near-simultaneous flaring of EBs due to co-temporal flux emergence from a sunspot, which shows a decrease in transverse velocity when interacting with an existing, stationary area of opposite polarity magnetic flux, resulting in the formation of the EBs. We also show that these EBs can be fueled further by additional, faster moving, negative magnetic flux regions.

Returns to scale, market power, and the nature of price rigidity in new keynesian models with self-fulfilling expectations

Increasing returns to scale and firms' market power are two potential sources of sunspot expectations in neoclassical models. We show that in New Keynesian models, returns to scale and market power can have fundamentally different implications for broad macroeconomic issues, including self-fulfilling expectations, depending on the nature of price rigidity. Our findings suggest that the design of stabilization monetary policy can depend on precise knowledge about the economy's real and nominal features. Therefore, a clear understanding of the specific economic environment and its relevance to monetary policymaking for ensuring macroeconomic stability can be an integrated part of monetary policy practice.