Influence of the upwelling events on the delta C-13 and delta O-18 of the benthic bivalve shells of the South Western Continental Margin of India

In this study, the influence of the spatial and temporal variability of upwelling intensity and the associated biological productivity observed during different phases of summer monsoon along the southwestern continental margin of India (SWCMI) on the delta C-13 and delta O-18 of the inorganic biogenic carbonate shells was investigated. Multispecies benthic bivalve shells (1-5 mm) separated from ten surface sediment samples of SWCMI (off 12 degrees N, 10 degrees N and 9 degrees N) collected during the onset (OSM) and peak (PSM) phase of the summer monsoon of 2009 were analysed for delta C-13 and delta O-18. Sea surface temperature along the study region indicates prominent upwelling in PSM than in OSM. A comparison of analytical and predicted values for delta O-18 in the bivalve shells confirmed their in situ origin during both the sampling periods. During PSM, the delta C-13 values in the benthic bivalve shells were more depleted in C-13 than during OSM which recorded lower values of delta C-13 in dissolved inorganic carbon of bottom waters expected in the study region in PSM due to the upwelled waters, high surface productivity and the associated high degradation of the organic matter in the subsurface and bottom waters. However, this depletion of delta C-13 was not observed in benthic bivalve shells obtained from 10 degrees N, since it is influenced by high export fluxes of carbon from the Cochin estuary since early monsoon months.

Development of the East Asian monsoon: Mineralogical and sedimentologic records in the northern South China Sea since 20 Ma

We here reconstruct the past change of the East Asian monsoon since 20 Ma using samples from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 1146 in the northern South China Sea based On a multi-proxy approach including a monomineralic quartz isolation procedure, identification of clay minerals by X-ray Diffraction (XRD) and grain-size analysis of isolated terrigenous materials. Terrigenous supply to ODP Site 1146 was dominated by changes in the strength of multiple sources and transport processes. Grain-size data modeled by an end-member modeling algorithm indicate that eolian dust from the and Asian inland and fluvial input have contributed on average 20% and 80% of total terrigenous material to ODP Site 1146, respectively. Specifically, about 40-53% of the total (quartz+feldspar) and only 6-11% of the total clay is related to eolian supply at the study site. Detailed analysis of the sedimentary environment, and clay minerals combined with previous studies shows that smectite originates mainly from Luzon, kaolinite from the Pearl River and illite and chlorite from the Pearl River, Taiwan and/or the Yangtze River. The proportion and mass accumulation rate (MAR) of the coarsest end-member EM1 (interpreted as eolian dust), ratios of (illite+chlorite)/smectite, (quartz+feldspar)% and mean grain-size of terrigenous materials at ODP Site 1146 were adopted as proxies for East Asian monsoon evolution. The consistent variation of these independent proxies since 20 Ma shows three profound shifts in the intensity of East Asian winter monsoon relative to summer monsoon, as well as aridity of the Asian continent, occurred at similar to 15 Ma, similar to 8 Ma and the youngest at about 3 Ma. In comparison, the summer monsoon intensified contemporaneously with the winter monsoon at 3 Ma. The phased uplift of the Himalaya-Tibetan plateau may have played a significant role in strengthening the Asian monsoon at similar to 15 Ma, 8 Ma and 3 Ma. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Grain-size records at ODP site 1146 from the northern South China sea: Implications on the east Asian monsoon evolution since 20 Ma

273 samples from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 1146 in the northern South China Sea (SCS) were analyzed for grain-size distributions using grain-size class vs. standard deviation method and end-member modeling algorithm (EMMA) in order to investigate the evolution of the East Asian mon-soon since about 20 Ma. 10-19 mu m/1.3-2.4 mu m, the ratio of two grain-size populations with the highest variability through time was used to indicate East Asian winter monsoon intensity relative to summer monsoon. The mass accumulation rate of the coarsest end member EM1 (eolian), resulting from EMMA, can be used as a proxy of winter monsoon strength and Asian inland aridity, and the ratio of EM1/(EM2+EM3) as a proxy of winter monsoon intensity relative to summer monsoon. The combined proxies show that a profound enhancement of East Asian winter monsoon strength and winter monsoon intensity relative to summer monsoon occurred at about 8 Ma, and it is possible that the summer monsoon simultaneously intensified with winter monsoon at 3 Ma. Our results are well consistent with the previous studies in loess, eolian deposion in the Pacifc, radiolarians and planktonic foraminifera in the SCS. The phased uplift of the Himalaya-Tibetan Plateau may have played a significant role in strengthening the Asian monsoon at 8 Ma and 3 Ma.

Coherence between solar activity and the East Asian winter monsoon variability in the past 8000 years from Yangtze River-derived mud in the East China Sea

AMS(14)C dating and grain-size analysis for Core PC-6, located in the middle of a mud area on the inner shelf of the East China Sea (ECS), were used to rebuild the Holocene history of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM). The 7.5-m core recorded the history of environmental changes during the postglacial transgression. The core's mud section (the upper 450 cm) has been formed mainly by suspended sediment delivered from the Yangtze River mouth by the ECS Winter Coastal Current (ECSWCC) since 7.6 kyr BP. Using a mathematical method called "grain size vs. standard deviatioW', we can divide the Core PC-6's grain-size distribution into two populations at about 28 mu m. The fine population (< 28 mu m) is considered to be transported by the ECSWCC as suspended loads. Content of the fine population changes little and represents a stable sedimentary environment in accord with the present situation. Thus, variation of mean grain-size from the fine population would reflect the strength of ECSWCC, which is mainly controlled by the East Asian winter monsoon. Abrupt increasing mean grain size in the mud section is inferred to be transported by sudden strengthened ECSWCC, which was caused by the strengthened EAWM. Thus, the high resolution mean grain-size variation might serve as a proxy for reconstruction of the EAWM. A good correlation between sunspot change and the mean grain-size of suspended fine population suggests that one of the primary controls on centennial- to decadal-scale changes of the EAWM in the past 8 ka is the variations of sun irradiance, i.e., the EAWM will increase in intensity when the number of sunspots decreases. Spectral analyses of the mean grain-size time series of Core PC-6 show statistically significant periodicities centering on 2463, 1368, 128, 106, 100, 88-91, 7678, and 70-72 years. The EAWM and the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) agree with each other well on these cycles, and the East Asian Monsoon (EAM) and the Indian Monsoon also share in concurrent cycles in Holocene, which are in accord with the changes of the sun irradiance. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Characteristics of clay minerals in the northern South China Sea and its implications for evolution of East Asian monsoon since Miocene

Clay mineral assemblages, crystallinity, chemistry, and micromorphology of clay particles in sediments from ODP Site 1146 in the northern South China Sea (SCS) were analyzed, and used to trace sediment sources and obtain proxy records of the past changes in the East Asian monsoon climate since the Miocene, based on a multi-approach, including X-ray diffraction (XRD) and scanning electron microscopy combined with energy dispersive X-ray spectrometry (SEM-EDS). Clay minerals consist mainly of illite and smectite, with associated chlorite and kaolinite. The illite at ODP Site 1146 has very well-to-well crystallinity, and smectite has moderate-to-poor crystallinity. In SEM the smectite particles at ODP Site 1146 often appear cauliflower-like, a typical micromorphology of volcanic smecites. The smectite at ODP Site 1146 is relatively rich in Si element, but poor in Fe, very similar to the smectite from the West Philippine Sea. In contrast, the chemical composition of illite at ODP Site 1146 has no obvious differences from those of the Loess plateau, Yellow River, Yangtze River, and Pearl River. A further study on sediment source indicates that smectite originates mainly from Luzon, kaolinite from the Pearl River, and illite and chlorite from the Pearl River, Taiwan and/or the Yangtze River. The clay mineral assemblages at ODP Site 1146 were not only controlled by continental eathering regimes surrounding the SCS, but also by the changing strength of the transport processes. The ratios of (illite+chlorite)/smectite at ODP Site 1146 were adopted as proxies for the East Asian monsoon evolution. Relatively higher ratios reflect strongly intensified winter monsoon relative to summer monsoon, in contrast, lower ratios indicate a strengthened summer monsoon relative to winter monsoon. The consistent variation of this clay proxy from those of Loess plateau, eolian deposition in the North Pacific, planktonic, benthic foraminifera, and black carbon in the SCS since 20 Ma shows that three profound shifts of the East Asian winter monsoon intensity, and aridity in the Asian inland and the intensity of winter monsoon relative to summer monsoon, occurred at about 15 Ma, 8 Ma, and the younger at about 3 Ma. The phased uplift of the Himalaya-Tibetan plateau may have played a significant role in strengthening the Asian monsoon at 15 Ma, 8 Ma, and 3 Ma.

大气季节内振荡对东亚夏季风活动的影响研究

利用ERA40逐日再分析资料、NCEP/NCAR2逐日再分析资料、中国740个测站日降水资料、上海台风研究所提供的西太平洋热带气旋资料、Kaplan等重建的月平均SSTA资料、NOAA逐日长波辐射（OLR）等资料，应用离散功率谱分析、带通滤波、EOF分析等统计方法，研究了东亚夏季风(EASM）的移动特征、东亚地区季节内振荡(ISO)的基本特征、季节内振荡对东亚夏季风活动的影响、季节内振荡对东亚夏季风异常活动的影响机理。主要结论如下： （1）综合动力和热力因素定义了可动态描述东亚夏季风移动和强度的指数，并利用该指数研究了东亚夏季风的爆发和移动的季节内变化及其年际和年代际变化特征。研究发现，气候平均东亚夏季风前沿分别在28候、33候、36候、38候、40候、44候出现了明显的跳跃。东亚夏季风活动具有显著的年际变率，主要由于季风前沿在某些区域异常停滞和突然跨越北跳或南撤引起，造成中国东部旱涝灾害频繁发生。东亚夏季风的活动具有明显的年代际变化，在1965年、1980年、1994年发生了突变，造成中国东部降水由“南旱北涝”向“南涝北旱”的转变。 （2）东亚季风区季节内变化具有10~25d和30~60d两个波段的季节内振荡周期，以30-60d为主。存在三个主要低频模态，第一模态主要表征了EASM在长江中下游和华北地区活动期间的低频形势；第二模态印度洋-菲律宾由低频气旋式环流控制，主要表现了ISO在EASM爆发期间的低频形势；第三模态主要出现在EASM在华南和淮河活动期间的低频形势。第一模态和第三模态是代表东亚夏季风活动异常的主要低频形势。 （3）热带和副热带地区ISO总是沿垂直切变风的垂直方向传播。因此，在南海-菲律宾东北风垂直切变和副热带西太平洋北风垂直切变下，大气热源激发菲律宾附近交替出现的低频气旋和低频反气旋不断向西北传播，副热带西太平洋ISO以向西传播为主。中高纬度地区，乌拉尔山附近ISO以向东、向南移动或局地振荡为主；北太平洋中部ISO在某些情况下向南、向西传播。 （4）季风爆发期，伴随着热带东印度洋到菲律宾一系列低频气旋和低频反气旋， 冷空气向南输送，10~25天和30~60天季节内振荡低频气旋同时传入南海加快了南海夏季风的爆发。在气候态下，ISO活动表现的欧亚- 太平洋（EAP）以及太平洋-北美（PNA）低频波列分布特征(本文提出的EAP和PNA低频波列与传统意义上的二维定点相关得到的波列不同)。这种低频分布形式使得欧亚和太平洋中高纬度的槽、脊及太平洋副热带高压稳定、加强，东亚地区的低频波列则成为热带和中高纬度ISO相互作用影响东亚夏季风活动的纽带。不同的阶段表现不同的低频模态，30~60d低频模态的转变加快了EASM推进过程中跳跃性；30-60d低频模态的维持使得EASM前沿相对停滞。 （5）30-60d滤波场，菲律宾海域交替出现的低频气旋和低频反气旋不断向西北传播到南海-西太平洋一带。当南海-西太平洋地区低频气旋活跃时，季风槽加强、东伸，季风槽内热带气旋（TC）频数增加；当南海-西太平洋低频反气旋活跃时，季风槽减弱、西退，TC处于间歇期，生成位置不集中。 （6）在El Nino态下，大气季节内振荡偏弱，北传特征不明显，但ISO由中高纬度北太平洋中部向南和副热带西太平洋向西的传播特征显著，东亚地区ISO活动以第三模态为主，EASM集中停滞在华南和淮河流域，常伴随着持续性区域暴雨的出现，易造成华南和江淮流域洪涝灾害，长江和华北持续干旱。在La Nina态下，大气季节内振荡活跃，且具有明显的向北传播特征，PNA低频波列显著，东亚地区ISO活动以第一模态单峰为主；EASM主要停滞在长江中下游和华北地区，这些地区出现异常持续强降水，华南和淮河流域多干旱；在El Nino态向La Nina态转换期，ISO活动以第一模态双峰为主，长江中下游常常出现二度梅。

中国北方中新世风尘物质来源及古气候的地球化学指示

The most prominent tectonic and environmental events during the Cenozoic in Asia are the uplift of the Himalaya-Tibetan plateau, aridification in the Asian interior, and onset of the Asian monsoons. These caused more humid conditions in southeastern China and the formation of inland deserts in northwestern China. The 22 Ma eolian deposits in northern China provide an excellent terrestrial record relative to the above environmental events. Up to date, many studies have focused on the geochemical characters of the late Mio-Pleistocene eolian deposits, however, the geochemical characteristics of the Miocene loess and soils is still much less known. In this study, the elemental and Sr-Nd isotopic compositions of the eolian deposits from the Qinan (from 22.0 to 6.2 Ma) and the Xifeng (from 3.5 Ma until now) loess-soil sections were analyzed to examine the grain size effects on the element concentrations and the implications about the dust origin and climate. The main results are as follows: 1. The contents of Si, Na, Zr and Sr are higher in the coarser fractions while Ti and Nb have the highest contents in the 2-8 μm fractions. Al, Fe, Mg, K, Mn, Rb, Cu, Ga, Zn, V, Cr, Ni, LOI have clear relationships with grain-size, more abundant in the fine fraction while non significant relationship is observed for Y. Based on these features, we suggest that K2O/Al2O3 ratio can be used to address the dust provenance, and that VR (Vogt ratio = (Al2O3+K2O)/(MgO+CaO+Na2O)) can be used as a chemical weathering proxy for the Miocene eolian deposits because of their relative independence on the grain size. Meanwhile, SiO2/Al2O3 molar ratio is a best geochemical indicator of original eolian grain size, as suggested in earlier studies. 2. Analyses on the Sr and Nd isotope composition of the last glacial loess samples (L1) and comparison with the data from the deserts in northern China suggest that that Taklimakan desert is unlikely to be the main source region of the eolian dust. In contrast, these data suggest greater contributions of the Tengger, Badain Jaran and Qaidam deserts to the eolian dust during the last glacial cycle. Since the geochemical compositions (major, trace, REE and Sr, Nd isotope) of loess samples for the past 22 Ma are broadly similar with the samples from L1, these data trend to suggest relatively stable and insignificant changes of dust sources over the past 22 Ma. 3. Chemical weathering is stronger for Miocene paleosol samples than for the Plio-Pleistocene ones, showing warmer/more humid climatic conditions with a stronger summer monsoon in the Miocene. However, chemical weathering is typical of Ca-Na removal stage, suggesting a climate range from semiarid to subhumid conditions. These support the notion about the formation of a semi-arid to semi-humid monsoonal regime by the early Miocene, as is consistent with earlier studies.

宁夏固原寺口子剖面磁性地层与孢粉植物群初步研究

In Asia continent, several significant environmental events happened during the Cenozoic era, such as uplift of the Tibet Plateau, formation of the Asian Monsoon system, aridification of the temperate inland region in Central Asia. To investigate the history of long-term palaeoclimate evolution during the late Cenozoic, a lacustrine sequence located at Sikouzi, Guyuan county, Ningxia-Hui Autonomous Region, was studied. The Sikouzi section is about 2880 m in thickness and has a general continuous nature according to field observation. Thus this thick lacustrine record is an important archive to further understand those environmental events. In this study, detailed field measurement, layer-after-layer description and sampling, and magnetostratigraphy and palynoflora investigations are conducted at the Sikouzi section and some preliminary results have been achieved as follows. Based on Hipparion fauna, pollen data and long distinctive patterns of the local magnetozones, the confident correlation of the Sikouzi magnetostratigraphic polarity to the GPTS (CK95) is best established, indicating that the top boundary of the Sikouzi formation is dated back to -19.8 Ma B.P. and consequently no Oligocene sediments deposited locally. On the other hand, both the field observation and the correlation to GPTS indicate a nearly continuous nature for the whole sequence. The palynological results show that the grassland has been a dominant vegetation in the Sikouzi area since ~19.8 Ma B.P, although some trees/shrubs were present sparsely during the intervals of relatively warm and wet climatic conditions. This implies that the onset of the aridification in northwestern China is dated back to at least 19.8 Ma B.P. ago. The Neogene Global Climatic Optimum (-16.0 Ma B.P.) occurring between the late Early Miocene and the early Middle Miocene is well documented in the Shanwang formation, Shandong Province. However, such event was not found in the Sikouzi record, and neither in the Guide and the Hualong basins, Qinghai province. This may lead us to the conclusion that the East-Asian Summer Monsoon system remained weak during the period of the Miocene Climatic Optimum although the onset of it was traced back to the Early Oligocene. In the Sikouzi area, it was warm between the latest Miocene and the early Pliocene and then became cool in the late Pliocene. This pattern is consistent with the palaeoclimate record of the Pliocene from other areas in the world.

亚洲地形和海陆分布变化对东亚环境格局形成演化的作用：数值模拟与地质记录对比

Earlier studies on the distribution of geological environmental indicators in China revealed drastic changes from a zonal climate pattern (planetary-wave-dominant pattern) in the Paleogene to a monsoon-dominant one in the Neogene, which suggested an inception of the initial East-Asian summer monsoon. However, there are different views about the time and causes of the changes.Here, we attempt to compile a series of paleoenvironmental maps based on newly collected climate indicators from the literatures and chronologically constrained evidence of geological maps in order to re-examine the temporal and spatial evolution of climate belts in China during the Cenozoic with special emphasis on the changes of the arid belt. These indicators include mammalian fauna, coal, carbonate concretions, jarosite, salt, gypsum deposits and pollen assemblages etc, with chronological controls that we believe reliable. Pollen assemblages and mammalian fauna have been classified into three categories (arid, semi-arid/sub-humid, humid) to reflect the intensity of aridity/humidity. Salt, jarosite and gypsum deposits are classified as the arid indicators. Carbonate concretions and coal are classified into the semi-arid/sub-humid and humid one respectively. Paleoenvironmental maps at 8 time slices have been reconstructed. They are the Paleocene, Eocene, Oligocene, Miocene, Early Miocene, Middle Miocene, Late Miocene and Pliocene.And furthermore, we attempt to use IAP^AGCM to simulate the evolution of climate belts in emphasizing on the changes of the rain band, and compare the results with the paleoenvironmental maps in order to examine the causes of the drastic paleoenvironmental changes near the Oligocene/Miocene boundary. 36 sensitive numerical experiments are carried out using the IAP__AGCM to analyze the impacts of the uplift of the Himalayan-Tibetan complex, shrinkage of the Paratethys Sea, expansion of the South China Sea and the development of the polar ice sheets on rain band in China.The main conclusions are as follows:The obtained results essentially confirm the earlier conclusions about a zonal climate pattern in the Paleogene and a different pattern in the Neogene, and illustrate that a monsoon-dominant environmental pattern with inland aridity formed by the Early Miocene, which is temporally consist with the onset of eolian deposits in China.Cenozoic cooling and the formation of polar ice sheets are unlikely the main causes to the changes of environmental patterns mentioned above in China. But northern hemispheric cooling and the ice-sheets can intensify the Siberian High Pressure, and strengthen the winter monsoon circulations and enhance the aridity in the west part of China. These results support the earlier studies.Shrinkage of the Paratethys Sea and uplift of the Himalayan-Tibetan complex played important roles in strengthening the East Asian monsoon and induceing the above changes of environmental pattern, which is consistent with the earlier studies. Furthermore, "the monsoon-dominant pattern" appears when the Himalayan-Tibetan complex reaches to about 1000-2000 meters high and the Paratethys Sea retreats to the Turan Plate.4) Expansion of the South China Sea is another significant factor that drives the evolution of environmental patterns. We believe that the above three factors co-act and drive the change of the environmental patterns from a planetary-wave-dominant one to a monsoon-dominant one. However, the impacts of each factor vary by regions. The uplift mainly increases the humidity in Southwestern China and the aridity in northwestern country. The shrinkage mainly increases the humidity in Northern China and also enhances the aridity in the northwestern country. The expansion greatly increases the humidity in the south part of China.

South-West Monsoon Rainfall of Kerala and Its Variability

This study focuses on the south –west monsoon rainfall over Kerala and its variability both on the spatial and temporal scales. The main objectives of the study are, interanual, long-term and decadal variabilities in MRF(monsoon rain fall),relationship between antecedent global circulation parameters, diurnal variability using data of a large number of stations in Kerala and the spatial distribution of rainfall under two large scale synoptic. Kerala gets nearly 190cm of rainfall during the south-west monsoon season 1st June to 30th September. This is more than twice the monsoon rainfall of India. A good part of kerala’s rainfall is caused by the orography of the Western Ghats Mountain ranges. The state receives 286cm of annual rainfall of which 68%is during the south-west monsoon season. The summer monsoon rainfall of Kerala shows a decreasing trend of 12.0%in 96 years. The study shows that the Intra Seasonal Oscillations(ISO) of the monsoon season has large interanual variability,some years having long period and other years having short period ISO. It is seen that Western Ghats has a strong control on the east west profile on the monsoon rainfall.

Dynamic and Thermodynamic Structure of the Monsoon Boundary Layer over India

The objective of the study is to examine the dynamic and thermodynamic structure and the variations that occur in the surface layer during the pre-monsoon, onset and post-monsoon periods over the Indian region. The variations caused during the occurrence of micro and mesoscale systems, structure and variation in the marine boundary layer over the Indian region is also investigated. The drag coefficient computed indirectly also shows variation during various seasons. The thermodynamic structure of the atmosphere shows variation during the various seasons. The onset monsoon causes lowering of the Lifting Condensation Levels. The outcome of the study is expected to provide a better understanding of the structure and variations in the boundary layer over India, which is useful for many applications especially for numerical modeling studies.

POST-MONSOON SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND CONVECTION ANOMALIES OVER INDIAN AND PACIFIC OCEANS

We have studied sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the Indian and Pacific Oceans (domain 25 °S to 25°N and 40 °E to 160 °W) during the three seasons following the Indian summer monsoon for wet monsoons and also for dry monsoons accompanied or not by El Ni˜no. A dry monsoon is followed by positive SST anomalies in the longitude belt 40 to 120 °E, negative anomalies in 120 to 160 °E and again positive anomalies east of 160 °E. In dry monsoons accompanied by El Ni˜no the anomalies have the same sign, but are much stronger. Wet monsoons have weak anomalies of opposite sign in all three of the longitude belts. Thus El Ni˜no and a dry monsoon have the same types of association with the Indian and Pacific Ocean SSTs. In the sector 40 to 120 °E SST anomalies first appear over the western part of the Indian Ocean (June to September) followed by the same sign of anomalies over its eastern part and China Sea (October to March). By March after a dry monsoon or El Ni˜no the Indian Ocean between 10 °N and 10 °S has a spatially large warm SST anomaly. Anomalies in deep convection tend to follow the SST anomalies, with warm SST anomalies producing positive convection anomalies around the seasonal location of the intertropical convergence zone

The effect of doubled CO2 and model basic state biases on the monsoon-ENSO system. I: Mean response and interannual variability

The impact of doubled CO2 concentration on the Asian summer monsoon is studied using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Both the mean seasonal precipitation and interannual monsoon variability are found to increase in the future climate scenario presented. Systematic biases in current climate simulations of the coupled system prevent accurate representation of the monsoon-ENSO teleconnection, of prime importance for seasonal prediction and for determining monsoon interannual variability. By applying seasonally varying heat flux adjustments to the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean surface in the future climate simulation, some assessment can be made of the impact of systematic model biases on future climate predictions. In simulations where the flux adjustments are implemented, the response to climate change is magnified, with the suggestion that systematic biases may be masking the true impact of increased greenhouse gas forcing. The teleconnection between ENSO and the Asian summer monsoon remains robust in the future climate, although the Indo-Pacific takes on more of a biennial character for long periods of the flux-adjusted simulation. Assessing the teleconnection across interdecadal timescales shows wide variations in its amplitude, despite the absence of external forcing. This suggests that recent changes in the observed record cannot be distinguished from internal variations and as such are not necessarily related to climate change.

The role of the basic state in the ENSO-monsoon relationship and implications for predictability

The impact of systematic model errors on a coupled simulation of the Asian Summer monsoon and its interannual variability is studied. Although the mean monsoon climate is reasonably well captured, systematic errors in the equatorial Pacific mean that the monsoon-ENSO teleconnection is rather poorly represented in the GCM. A system of ocean-surface heat flux adjustments is implemented in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans in order to reduce the systematic biases. In this version of the GCM, the monsoon-ENSO teleconnection is better simulated, particularly the lag-lead relationships in which weak monsoons precede the peak of El Nino. In part this is related to changes in the characteristics of El Nino, which has a more realistic evolution in its developing phase. A stronger ENSO amplitude in the new model version also feeds back to further strengthen the teleconnection. These results have important implications for the use of coupled models for seasonal prediction of systems such as the monsoon, and suggest that some form of flux correction may have significant benefits where model systematic error compromises important teleconnections and modes of interannual variability.