A physical approach on flood risk vulnerability of buildings

The design of efficient hydrological risk mitigation strategies and their subsequent implementation relies on a careful vulnerability analysis of the elements exposed. Recently, extensive research efforts were undertaken to develop and refine empirical relationships linking the structural vulnerability of buildings to the impact forces of the hazard processes. These empirical vulnerability functions allow estimating the expected direct losses as a result of the hazard scenario based on spatially explicit representation of the process patterns and the elements at risk classified into defined typological categories. However, due to the underlying empiricism of such vulnerability functions, the physics of the damage-generating mechanisms for a well-defined element at risk with its peculiar geometry and structural characteristics remain unveiled, and, as such, the applicability of the empirical approach for planning hazard-proof residential buildings is limited. Therefore, we propose a conceptual assessment scheme to close this gap. This assessment scheme encompasses distinct analytical steps: modelling (a) the process intensity, (b) the impact on the element at risk exposed and (c) the physical response of the building envelope. Furthermore, these results provide the input data for the subsequent damage evaluation and economic damage valuation. This dynamic assessment supports all relevant planning activities with respect to a minimisation of losses, and can be implemented in the operational risk assessment procedure.

Patient information leaflets: informing or frightening? A focus group study exploring patients' emotional reactions and subsequent behavior towards package leaflets of commonly prescribed medications in family practices.

BACKGROUND The purpose of patient information leaflets (PILs) is to inform patients about the administration, precautions and potential side effects of their prescribed medication. Despite European Commission guidelines aiming at increasing readability and comprehension of PILs little is known about the potential risk information has on patients. This article explores patients' reactions and subsequent behavior towards risk information conveyed in PILs of commonly prescribed drugs by general practitioners (GPs) for the treatment of Type 2 diabetes, hypertension or hypercholesterolemia; the most frequent cause for consultations in family practices in Germany. METHODS We conducted six focus groups comprising 35 patients which were recruited in GP practices. Transcripts were read and coded for themes; categories were created by abstracting data and further refined into a coding framework. RESULTS Three interrelated categories are presented: (i) The vast amount of side effects and drug interactions commonly described in PILs provoke various emotional reactions in patients which (ii) lead to specific patient behavior of which (iii) consulting the GP for assistance is among the most common. Findings show that current description of potential risk information caused feelings of fear and anxiety in the reader resulting in undesirable behavioral reactions. CONCLUSIONS Future PILs need to convey potential risk information in a language that is less frightening while retaining the information content required to make informed decisions about the prescribed medication. Thus, during the production process greater emphasis needs to be placed on testing the degree of emotional arousal provoked in patients when reading risk information to allow them to undertake a benefit-risk-assessment of their medication that is based on rational rather than emotional (fearful) reactions.

Decision-making in aortic root surgery in Marfan syndrome: bleeding, thromboembolism and risk of reintervention after valve-sparing or mechanical aortic root replacement†

OBJECTIVES Valve-sparing root replacement (VSRR) is thought to reduce the rate of thromboembolic and bleeding events compared with aortic root replacement using a mechanical aortic root replacement (MRR) with a composite graft by avoiding oral anticoagulation. But as VSRR carries a certain risk for subsequent reinterventions, decision-making in the individual patient can be challenging. METHODS Of 100 Marfan syndrome (MFS) patients who underwent 169 aortic surgeries and were followed at our institution since 1995, 59 consecutive patients without a history of dissection or prior aortic surgery underwent elective VSRR or MRR and were retrospectively analysed. RESULTS VSRR was performed in 29 (David n = 24, Yacoub n = 5) and MRR in 30 patients. The mean age was 33 ± 15 years. The mean follow-up after VSRR was 6.5 ± 4 years (180 patient-years) compared with 8.8 ± 9 years (274 patient-years) after MRR. Reoperation rates after root remodelling (Yacoub) were significantly higher than after the reimplantation (David) procedure (60 vs 4.2%, P = 0.01). The need for reinterventions after the reimplantation procedure (0.8% per patient-year) was not significantly higher than after MRR (P = 0.44) but follow-up after VSRR was significantly shorter (P = 0.03). There was neither significant morbidity nor mortality associated with root reoperations. There were no neurological events after VSRR compared with four stroke/intracranial bleeding events in the MRR group (log-rank, P = 0.11), translating into an event rate of 1.46% per patient-year following MRR. CONCLUSION The calculated annual failure rate after VSRR using the reimplantation technique was lower than the annual risk for thromboembolic or bleeding events. Since the perioperative risk of reinterventions following VSRR is low, patients might benefit from VSRR even if redo surgery may become necessary during follow-up.

Natural history of surgically treated high-risk prostate cancer

BACKGROUND No data exist on the patterns of biochemical recurrence (BCR) and their effect on survival in patients with high-risk prostate cancer (PCa) treated with surgery. The aim of our investigation was to evaluate the natural history of PCa in patients treated with radical prostatectomy (RP) alone. MATERIALS AND METHODS Overall, 2,065 patients with high-risk PCa treated with RP at 7 tertiary referral centers between 1991 and 2011 were identified. First, we calculated the probability of experiencing BCR after surgery. Particularly, we relied on conditional survival estimates for BCR after RP. Competing-risks regression analyses were then used to evaluate the effect of time to BCR on the risk of cancer-specific mortality (CSM). RESULTS Median follow-up was 70 months. Overall, the 5-year BCR-free survival rate was 55.2%. Given the BCR-free survivorship at 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 years, the BCR-free survival rates improved by+7.6%,+4.1%,+4.8%,+3.2%, and+3.7%, respectively. Overall, the 10-year CSM rate was 14.8%. When patients were stratified according to time to BCR, patients experiencing BCR within 36 months from surgery had higher 10-year CSM rates compared with those experiencing late BCR (19.1% vs. 4.4%; P<0.001). At multivariate analyses, time to BCR represented an independent predictor of CSM (P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS Increasing time from surgery is associated with a reduction of the risk of subsequent BCR. Additionally, time to BCR represents a predictor of CSM in these patients. These results might help provide clinicians with better follow-up strategies and more aggressive treatments for early BCR.

Loss of tumor suppressor mir-203 mediates overexpression of LIM and SH3 Protein 1 (LASP1) in high-risk prostate cancer thereby increasing cell proliferation and migration

Several studies have linked overexpression of the LIM and SH3 domain protein 1 (LASP1) to progression of breast, colon, liver, and bladder cancer. However, its expression pattern and role in human prostate cancer (PCa) remained largely undefined. Analysis of published microarray data revealed a significant overexpression of LASP1 in PCa metastases compared to parental primary tumors and normal prostate epithelial cells. Subsequent gene-set enrichment analysis comparing LASP1-high and -low PCa identified an association of LASP1 with genes involved in locomotory behavior and chemokine signaling. These bioinformatic predictions were confirmed in vitro as the inducible short hairpin RNA-mediated LASP1 knockdown impaired migration and proliferation in LNCaP prostate cancer cells. By immunohistochemical staining and semi-quantitative image analysis of whole tissue sections we found an enhanced expression of LASP1 in primary PCa and lymph node metastases over benign prostatic hyperplasia. Strong cytosolic and nuclear LASP1 immunoreactivity correlated with PSA progression. Conversely, qRT-PCR analyses for mir-203, which is a known translational suppressor of LASP1 in matched RNA samples revealed an inverse correlation of LASP1 protein and mir-203 expression. Collectively, our results suggest that loss of mir-203 expression and thus uncontrolled LASP1 overexpression might drive progression of PCa.

16p11.2 600 kb Duplications confer risk for typical and atypical Rolandic epilepsy

Rolandic epilepsy (RE) is the most common idiopathic focal childhood epilepsy. Its molecular basis is largely unknown and a complex genetic etiology is assumed in the majority of affected individuals. The present study tested whether six large recurrent copy number variants at 1q21, 15q11.2, 15q13.3, 16p11.2, 16p13.11 and 22q11.2 previously associated with neurodevelopmental disorders also increase risk of RE. Our association analyses revealed a significant excess of the 600 kb genomic duplication at the 16p11.2 locus (chr16: 29.5-30.1 Mb) in 393 unrelated patients with typical (n = 339) and atypical (ARE; n = 54) RE compared with the prevalence in 65,046 European population controls (5/393 cases versus 32/65,046 controls; Fisher's exact test P = 2.83 × 10(-6), odds ratio = 26.2, 95% confidence interval: 7.9-68.2). In contrast, the 16p11.2 duplication was not detected in 1738 European epilepsy patients with either temporal lobe epilepsy (n = 330) and genetic generalized epilepsies (n = 1408), suggesting a selective enrichment of the 16p11.2 duplication in idiopathic focal childhood epilepsies (Fisher's exact test P = 2.1 × 10(-4)). In a subsequent screen among children carrying the 16p11.2 600 kb rearrangement we identified three patients with RE-spectrum epilepsies in 117 duplication carriers (2.6%) but none in 202 carriers of the reciprocal deletion. Our results suggest that the 16p11.2 duplication represents a significant genetic risk factor for typical and atypical RE.

Low self-esteem is a risk factor for depressive symptoms from young adulthood to old age

Data from two large longitudinal studies were used to analyze reciprocal relations between self-esteem and depressive symptoms across the adult life span. Study 1 included 1,685 participants aged 18 to 96 years assessed 4 times over a 9-year period. Study 2 included 2,479 participants aged 18 to 88 years assessed 3 times over a 4-year period. In both studies, cross-lagged regression analyses indicated that low self-esteem predicted subsequent depressive symptoms, but depressive symptoms did not predict subsequent levels of self-esteem. This pattern of results replicated across all age groups, for both affective–cognitive and somatic symptoms of depression, and after controlling for content overlap between the self-esteem and depression scales. The results suggest that low self-esteem operates as a risk factor for depressive symptoms at all phases of the adult life span.

Transient detectable viremia and the risk of viral rebound in patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND Temporary increases in plasma HIV RNA ('blips') are common in HIV patients on combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). Blips above 500 copies/mL have been associated with subsequent viral rebound. It is not clear if this relationship still holds when measurements are made using newer more sensitive assays. METHODS We selected antiretroviral-naive patients that then recorded one or more episodes of viral suppression on cART with HIV RNA measurements made using more sensitive assays (lower limit of detection below 50 copies/ml). We estimated the association in these episodes between blip magnitude and the time to viral rebound. RESULTS Four thousand ninety-four patients recorded a first episode of viral suppression on cART using more sensitive assays; 1672 patients recorded at least one subsequent suppression episode. Most suppression episodes (87 %) were recorded with TaqMan version 1 or 2 assays. Of the 2035 blips recorded, 84 %, 12 % and 4 % were of low (50-199 copies/mL), medium (200-499 copies/mL) and high (500-999 copies/mL) magnitude respectively. The risk of viral rebound increased as blip magnitude increased with hazard ratios of 1.20 (95 % CI 0.89-1.61), 1.42 (95 % CI 0.96-2.19) and 1.93 (95 % CI 1.24-3.01) for low, medium and high magnitude blips respectively; an increase of hazard ratio 1.09 (95 % CI 1.03 to 1.15) per 100 copies/mL of HIV RNA. CONCLUSIONS With the more sensitive assays now commonly used for monitoring patients, blips above 200 copies/mL are increasingly likely to lead to viral rebound and should prompt a discussion about adherence.

Subclinical thyroid dysfunction and fracture risk: a meta-analysis.

IMPORTANCE Associations between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and fractures are unclear and clinical trials are lacking. OBJECTIVE To assess the association of subclinical thyroid dysfunction with hip, nonspine, spine, or any fractures. DATA SOURCES AND STUDY SELECTION The databases of MEDLINE and EMBASE (inception to March 26, 2015) were searched without language restrictions for prospective cohort studies with thyroid function data and subsequent fractures. DATA EXTRACTION Individual participant data were obtained from 13 prospective cohorts in the United States, Europe, Australia, and Japan. Levels of thyroid function were defined as euthyroidism (thyroid-stimulating hormone [TSH], 0.45-4.49 mIU/L), subclinical hyperthyroidism (TSH <0.45 mIU/L), and subclinical hypothyroidism (TSH ≥4.50-19.99 mIU/L) with normal thyroxine concentrations. MAIN OUTCOME AND MEASURES The primary outcome was hip fracture. Any fractures, nonspine fractures, and clinical spine fractures were secondary outcomes. RESULTS Among 70,298 participants, 4092 (5.8%) had subclinical hypothyroidism and 2219 (3.2%) had subclinical hyperthyroidism. During 762,401 person-years of follow-up, hip fracture occurred in 2975 participants (4.6%; 12 studies), any fracture in 2528 participants (9.0%; 8 studies), nonspine fracture in 2018 participants (8.4%; 8 studies), and spine fracture in 296 participants (1.3%; 6 studies). In age- and sex-adjusted analyses, the hazard ratio (HR) for subclinical hyperthyroidism vs euthyroidism was 1.36 for hip fracture (95% CI, 1.13-1.64; 146 events in 2082 participants vs 2534 in 56,471); for any fracture, HR was 1.28 (95% CI, 1.06-1.53; 121 events in 888 participants vs 2203 in 25,901); for nonspine fracture, HR was 1.16 (95% CI, 0.95-1.41; 107 events in 946 participants vs 1745 in 21,722); and for spine fracture, HR was 1.51 (95% CI, 0.93-2.45; 17 events in 732 participants vs 255 in 20,328). Lower TSH was associated with higher fracture rates: for TSH of less than 0.10 mIU/L, HR was 1.61 for hip fracture (95% CI, 1.21-2.15; 47 events in 510 participants); for any fracture, HR was 1.98 (95% CI, 1.41-2.78; 44 events in 212 participants); for nonspine fracture, HR was 1.61 (95% CI, 0.96-2.71; 32 events in 185 participants); and for spine fracture, HR was 3.57 (95% CI, 1.88-6.78; 8 events in 162 participants). Risks were similar after adjustment for other fracture risk factors. Endogenous subclinical hyperthyroidism (excluding thyroid medication users) was associated with HRs of 1.52 (95% CI, 1.19-1.93) for hip fracture, 1.42 (95% CI, 1.16-1.74) for any fracture, and 1.74 (95% CI, 1.01-2.99) for spine fracture. No association was found between subclinical hypothyroidism and fracture risk. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Subclinical hyperthyroidism was associated with an increased risk of hip and other fractures, particularly among those with TSH levels of less than 0.10 mIU/L and those with endogenous subclinical hyperthyroidism. Further study is needed to determine whether treating subclinical hyperthyroidism can prevent fractures.

Aortic morphometry at endograft position as assessed by 3D image analysis affects risk of type I endoleak formation after TEVAR

PURPOSE The purpose of this study was to identify morphologic factors affecting type I endoleak formation and bird-beak configuration after thoracic endovascular aortic repair (TEVAR). METHODS Computed tomography (CT) data of 57 patients (40 males; median age, 66 years) undergoing TEVAR for thoracic aortic aneurysm (34 TAA, 19 TAAA) or penetrating aortic ulcer (n = 4) between 2001 and 2010 were retrospectively reviewed. In 28 patients, the Gore TAG® stent-graft was used, followed by the Medtronic Valiant® in 16 cases, the Medtronic Talent® in 8, and the Cook Zenith® in 5 cases. Proximal landing zone (PLZ) was in zone 1 in 13, zone 2 in 13, zone 3 in 23, and zone 4 in 8 patients. In 14 patients (25%), the procedure was urgent or emergent. In each case, pre- and postoperative CT angiography was analyzed using a dedicated image processing workstation and complimentary in-house developed software based on a 3D cylindrical intensity model to calculate aortic arch angulation and conicity of the landing zones (LZ). RESULTS Primary type Ia endoleak rate was 12% (7/57) and subsequent re-intervention rate was 86% (6/7). Left subclavian artery (LSA) coverage (p = 0.036) and conicity of the PLZ (5.9 vs. 2.6 mm; p = 0.016) were significantly associated with an increased type Ia endoleak rate. Bird-beak configuration was observed in 16 patients (28%) and was associated with a smaller radius of the aortic arch curvature (42 vs. 65 mm; p = 0.049). Type Ia endoleak was not associated with a bird-beak configuration (p = 0.388). Primary type Ib endoleak rate was 7% (4/57) and subsequent re-intervention rate was 100%. Conicity of the distal LZ was associated with an increased type Ib endoleak rate (8.3 vs. 2.6 mm; p = 0.038). CONCLUSIONS CT-based 3D aortic morphometry helps to identify risk factors of type I endoleak formation and bird-beak configuration during TEVAR. These factors were LSA coverage and conicity within the landing zones for type I endoleak formation and steep aortic angulation for bird-beak configuration.

A genome-wide association study confirms PNPLA3 and identifies TM6SF2 and MBOAT7 as risk loci for alcohol-related cirrhosis

Alcohol misuse is the leading cause of cirrhosis and the second most common indication for liver transplantation in the Western world. We performed a genome-wide association study for alcohol-related cirrhosis in individuals of European descent (712 cases and 1,426 controls) with subsequent validation in two independent European cohorts (1,148 cases and 922 controls). We identified variants in the MBOAT7 (P = 1.03 × 10(-9)) and TM6SF2 (P = 7.89 × 10(-10)) genes as new risk loci and confirmed rs738409 in PNPLA3 as an important risk locus for alcohol-related cirrhosis (P = 1.54 × 10(-48)) at a genome-wide level of significance. These three loci have a role in lipid processing, suggesting that lipid turnover is important in the pathogenesis of alcohol-related cirrhosis.

The role of vulnerability factors in individuals with an at-risk mental state of psychosis

Background Several indicators of heightened vulnerability to psychosis and relevant stressors have been identified. However, it has rarely been studied prospectively to what extent these vulnerability factors are in fact more frequently present in individuals with an at-risk mental state for psychosis. Moreover, it remains unknown whether any of these contribute to the prediction of psychosis onset in at-risk mental state individuals. Methods There were 28 healthy controls, 86 first-episode psychosis patients and 127 at-risk mental state individuals recruited within the Basel “Früherkennung von Psychosen” project. Relative frequencies of selected vulnerability factors for psychosis were compared between healthy controls, psychosis patients, those at-risk mental state individuals with subsequent psychosis onset (n = 31) and those without subsequent psychosis onset (n = 55). Survival analyses were applied to determine associations between time to transition to psychosis and vulnerability factors in all 127 at-risk mental state individuals. Results The vulnerability factors/indicators such as “difficulties during school education or vocational training”, “difficulties during employment”, “being single”, “difficulties with intimate relationships” and “being burdened with specific stressful situations” were more commonly found in the at-risk mental state and first-episode psychosis group than in healthy controls. Conclusions At-risk mental state and first-episode psychosis individuals more frequently present with vulnerability factors. Individual vulnerability factors appear, however, not to be predictive for an onset of psychosis.

Effects of exercise with oxygen prebreathe for decompression risk reduction

Astronauts performing extravehicular activities (EVA) are at risk for occupational hazards due to a hypobaric environment, in particular Decompression Sickness (DCS). DCS results from nitrogen gas bubble formation in body tissues and venous blood. Denitrogenation achieved through lengthy staged decompression protocols has been the mainstay of prevention of DCS in space. Due to the greater number and duration of EVAs scheduled for construction and maintenance of the International Space Station, more efficient alternatives to accomplish missions without compromising astronaut safety are desirable. ^ This multi-center, multi-phase study (NASA-Prebreathe Reduction Protocol study, or PRP) was designed to identify a shorter denitrogenation protocol that can be implemented before an EVA, based on the combination of adynamia and exercise enhanced oxygen prebreathe. Human volunteers recruited at three sites (Texas, North Carolina and Canada) underwent three different combinations (“PRP phases”) of intense and light exercise prior to decompression in an altitude chamber. The outcome variables were detection of venous gas embolism (VGE) by precordial Doppler ultrasound, and clinical manifestations of DCS. Independent variables included age, gender, body mass index, oxygen consumption peak, peak heart rate, and PRP phase. Data analysis was performed both by pooling results from all study sites, and by examining each site separately. ^ Ten percent of the subjects developed DCS and 20% showed evidence of high grade VGE. No cases of DCS occurred in one particular PRP phase with use of the combination of dual-cycle ergometry (10 minutes at 75% of VO2 peak) plus 24 minutes of light EVA exercise (p = 0.04). No significant effects were found for the remaining independent variables on the occurrence of DCS. High grade VGE showed a strong correlation with subsequent development of DCS (sensitivity, 88.2%; specificity, 87.2%). In the presence of high grade VGE, the relative risk for DCS ranged from 7.52 to 35.0. ^ In summary, a good safety level can be achieved with exercise-enhanced oxygen denitrogenation that can be generalized to the astronaut population. Exercise is beneficial in preventing DCS if a specific schedule is followed, with an individualized VO2 prescription that provides a safety level that can then be applied to space operations. Furthermore, VGE Doppler detection is a useful clinical tool for prediction of altitude DCS. Because of the small number of high grade VGE episodes, the identification of a high probability DCS situation based on the presence of high grade VGE seems justified in astronauts. ^

Risk factors for developing complications while awaiting a cholecystectomy

Background. Laparoscopic Cholecystectomy is the gold standard for patients who are diagnosed with biliary colic (NIH, 1993). It has been demonstrated that individuals who wait a longer time between diagnosis and treatment are at increased risk of having complications (Rutledge et al., 2000; Contini et al., 2004; Eldar et al., 1999). County hospitals, such as Ben Taub General Hospital (BTGH), have a particularly high population of uninsured patients and consequently long surgical wait periods due to limited resources. This study evaluates patients the risk factors involved in their progression to complications from gallstones in a county hospital environment. ^ Methods. A case-control study using medical records was performed on all patients who underwent a cholecystectomy for gallstone disease at BTGH during the year of 2005 (n=414). The risk factors included in the study are obesity, gender, age, race, diabetes, and amount of time from diagnosis to surgery. Multivariate analysis and logistical regression were used to assess factors that potentially lead to the development of complications. ^ Results. There were a total of 414 patients at BTGH who underwent a cholecystectomy for gallstone disease during 2005. The majority of patients were female, 84.3% (n=349) and Hispanic, 79.7% (n=330). The median wait time from diagnosis to surgery was 1.43 weeks (range: 0-184.71). The majority of patients presented with complications 72.5% (n=112). The two factors that impacted development of complications in our study population were Hispanic race (OR=1.81; CI 1.02, 3.23; p=0.04) and time from diagnosis to surgery (OR=0.98; CI 0.97, 0.99; p<0.01). Obesity, gender, age, and diabetes were not predictive of development of complications. ^ Conclusions. An individual's socioeconomic status potentially influences all aspects of their health and subsequent health care. The patient population of BTGH is largely uninsured and therefore less likely to seek care at an early stage in their disease process. In order to decrease the rate of complications, there needs to be a system that increases patient access to primary care clinics. Until the problem of access to care is solved, those who are uninsured will likely suffer more severe complications and society will bear the cost. ^

Factor H variant Y402H and the prevalence of hypertension and proteinuria: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study

Hypertension is a significant risk factor for cardiovascular disease, which in turn is a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. While the pathogenesis of vascular injury and subsequent end organ damage is complex, there is emerging data to support a role for the complement system in endovascular diseases. The complement Factor H Y402H polymorphism has been associated with a number of vasculopathies, including age-related macular degeneration (AMD), ischemic stroke and myocardial infarction. The current study evaluated the relationship of the Y402H polymorphism with hypertension and microalbuminuria in large the bi-racial Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study. The Y402H polymorphism was found to be associated with a 48% (p-value 0.042) increase in the risk of developing incident hypertension in African American participants. No significant association was found with the Y402H polymorphism and microalbuminuria. The results from this investigation reveal the first association of the Factor H Y402H polymorphism and an increased risk of incident hypertension in African Americans. ^