Using graphical probability analysis (Bayes Nets) to evaluate a conditional DNA inclusion

This paper discusses the analysis of cases in which the inclusion or exclusion of a particular suspect, as a possible contributor to a DNA mixture, depends on the value of a variable (the number of contributors) that cannot be determined with certainty. It offers alternative ways to deal with such cases, including sensitivity analysis and object-oriented Bayesian networks, that separate uncertainty about the inclusion of the suspect from uncertainty about other variables. The paper presents a case study in which the value of DNA evidence varies radically depending on the number of contributors to a DNA mixture: if there are two contributors, the suspect is excluded; if there are three or more, the suspect is included; but the number of contributors cannot be determined with certainty. It shows how an object-oriented Bayesian network can accommodate and integrate varying perspectives on the unknown variable and how it can reduce the potential for bias by directing attention to relevant considerations and distinguishing different sources of uncertainty. It also discusses the challenge of presenting such evidence to lay audiences.

Decreased Probability of Initial Pain Cessation in Classic Trigeminal Neuralgia Treated With Gamma Knife Surgery in Case of Previous Microvascular Decompression: A Prospective Series of 45 Patients With >1 Year of Follow-up.

BACKGROUND: Microvascular decompression (MVD) is the reference technique for pharmacoresistant trigeminal neuralgia (TN). OBJECTIVE: To establish whether the safety and efficacy of Gamma Knife surgery for recurrent TN are influenced by prior MVD. METHODS: Between July 1992 and November 2010, 54 of 737 patients (45 of 497 with >1 year of follow-up) had a history of MVD (approximately half also with previous ablative procedure) and were operated on with Gamma Knife surgery for TN in the Timone University Hospital. A single 4-mm isocenter was positioned in the cisternal portion of the trigeminal nerve at a median distance of 7.6 mm (range, 3.9-11.9 mm) anterior to the emergence of the nerve. A median maximum dose of 85 Gy (range, 70-90 Gy) was delivered. RESULTS: The median follow-up time was 39.5 months (range, 14.1-144.6 months). Thirty-five patients (77.8%) were initially pain free in a median time of 14 days (range, 0-180 days), much lower compared with our global population of classic TN (P = .01). Their actuarial probabilities of remaining pain-free without medication at 3, 5, 7, and 10 years were 66.5%, 59.1%, 59.1%, and 44.3%. The hypoesthesia actuarial rate at 1 year was 9.1% and remained stable until 12 years (median, 8 months). CONCLUSION: Patients with previous MVD showed a significantly lower probability of initial pain cessation compared with our global population with classic TN (P = .01). The toxicity was low (only 9.1% hypoesthesia); furthermore, no patient reported bothersome hypoesthesia. However, the probability of maintaining pain relief without medication was 44.3% at 10 years, similar to our global series of classic TN (P = .85). ABBREVIATIONS: BNI, Barrow Neurological InstituteCI, confidence intervalCTN, classic trigeminal neuralgiaGKS, Gamma Knife surgeryHR, hazard ratioMVD, microvascular decompressionTN, trigeminal neuralgia.

MAR elements regulate the probability of epigenetic switching between active and inactive gene expression.

Gene expression often cycles between active and inactive states in eukaryotes, yielding variable or noisy gene expression in the short-term, while slow epigenetic changes may lead to silencing or variegated expression. Understanding how cells control these effects will be of paramount importance to construct biological systems with predictable behaviours. Here we find that a human matrix attachment region (MAR) genetic element controls the stability and heritability of gene expression in cell populations. Mathematical modeling indicated that the MAR controls the probability of long-term transitions between active and inactive expression, thus reducing silencing effects and increasing the reactivation of silent genes. Single-cell short-terms assays revealed persistent expression and reduced expression noise in MAR-driven genes, while stochastic burst of expression occurred without this genetic element. The MAR thus confers a more deterministic behavior to an otherwise stochastic process, providing a means towards more reliable expression of engineered genetic systems.

"We are all middle class: On the subjective status in Chile"

Chile is one of the countries with the highest level of income inequality worldwide. Given the association between economic inequality and patterns of social stratification, in such context it would be expected to find a large dispersion of subjective social status' indicators in the population. Nevertheless, analyses from international surveys reveal a strong tendency to the mean of the subjective status i.e. there would be downward and upward biases of the subjective status regarding the objective status. The present research attempts to tackle this phenomenon for the Chilean case, with a focus on the influence of status and class variables on the subjective status. For the analysis we use Chilean data from the social inequality module of the International Social Survey Programme 2009. The results indicate a strong tendency to the mean of the subjective status in the population, particularly from the side of those with higher objective status.

Processes models, environmental analyses, and cognitive architectures: Quo vadis quantum probability theory? (Commentary on Pothos and Busemeyer)

A lot of research in cognition and decision making suffers from a lack of formalism. The quantum probability program could help to improve this situation, but we wonder whether it would provide even more added value if its presumed focus on outcome models were complemented by process models that are, ideally, informed by ecological analyses and integrated into cognitive architectures.

The scarf osteotomy for the treatment of hallux valgus deformity: a review of 84 cases.

This study reviewed the subjective, clinical and radiological outcome of 71 patients (84 feet) treated by scarf osteotomy for hallux valgus deformity at our institution from 1995 to 1998 with an average follow-up time of 22 months (range, 17 to 48 months). At the time of follow-up, 39% of the patients were very satisfied, 50% were satisfied and 11% were not satisfied. The mean AOFAS score raised significantly from 43 points (14-68) preoperatively to 82 points (39 to 100) at follow-up (p < 0.001). The radiological angles including M1-M2, M1-P1, M1-M5 and DMAA improved significantly (p < 0.001). Among the 16 complications recorded, seven (8%) were minor and nine (11%) required an additional procedure. The scarf osteotomy of the first metatarsal coupled with a lateral soft-tissue release and, in three-quarters of our cases, with a basal closing wedge varisation osteotomy of the first phalanx, resulted in overall high satisfaction rate as well as significant clinical and radiological improvements in our series. Nevertheless, the range of motion of the first MP joint remained low: 30 degrees to 74 degrees in 52 patients (62%) and <30 degrees in four patients (5%). Furthermore, the mobility of the first ray as well as the consequences of the procedure in the sagittal plane need to be assessed more accurately, and this may be achieved by incorporating measurement of the plantar pressures in the forefoot area into the global rating system.

Homeodomain binding motifs modulate the probability of odorant receptor gene choice in transgenic mice.

Odorant receptor (OR) genes constitute with 1200 members the largest gene family in the mouse genome. A mature olfactory sensory neuron (OSN) is thought to express just one OR gene, and from one allele. The cell bodies of OSNs that express a given OR gene display a mosaic pattern within a particular region of the main olfactory epithelium. The mechanisms and cis-acting DNA elements that regulate the expression of one OR gene per OSN - OR gene choice - remain poorly understood. Here, we describe a reporter assay to identify minimal promoters for OR genes in transgenic mice, which are produced by the conventional method of pronuclear injection of DNA. The promoter transgenes are devoid of an OR coding sequence, and instead drive expression of the axonal marker tau-β-galactosidase. For four mouse OR genes (M71, M72, MOR23, and P3) and one human OR gene (hM72), a mosaic, OSN-specific pattern of reporter expression can be obtained in transgenic mice with contiguous DNA segments of only ~300 bp that are centered around the transcription start site (TSS). The ~150bp region upstream of the TSS contains three conserved sequence motifs, including homeodomain (HD) binding sites. Such HD binding sites are also present in the H and P elements, DNA sequences that are known to strongly influence OR gene expression. When a 19mer encompassing a HD binding site from the P element is multimerized nine times and added upstream of a MOR23 minigene that contains the MOR23 coding region, we observe a dramatic increase in the number of transgene-expressing founders and lines and in the number of labeled OSNs. By contrast, a nine times multimerized 19mer with a mutant HD binding site does not have these effects. We hypothesize that HD binding sites in the H and P elements and in OR promoters modulate the probability of OR gene choice.

Free inertial processes driven by Gaussian noise: Probability distributions, anomalous diffusion and fractal behavior

We study the motion of an unbound particle under the influence of a random force modeled as Gaussian colored noise with an arbitrary correlation function. We derive exact equations for the joint and marginal probability density functions and find the associated solutions. We analyze in detail anomalous diffusion behaviors along with the fractal structure of the trajectories of the particle and explore possible connections between dynamical exponents of the variance and the fractal dimension of the trajectories.

Generalized Langevin equations: Anomalous diffusion and probability distributions

We study the motion of a particle governed by a generalized Langevin equation. We show that, when no fluctuation-dissipation relation holds, the long-time behavior of the particle may be from stationary to superdiffusive, along with subdiffusive and diffusive. When the random force is Gaussian, we derive the exact equations for the joint and marginal probability density functions for the position and velocity of the particle and find their solutions.

Juvenile arthritis patients report favorable subjective outcomes of hip arthroplasty despite poor standard outcome scores.

We evaluated midterm patient-reported outcomes and satisfaction with total hip arthroplasty in patients who had severe juvenile idiopathic arthritis. Thirty-one patients (49 hips), with a mean age of 29 years (range, 16-43 years), reported low hip pain and stiffness at follow-up (mean, 7 years; range, 3-17 years). Up to 92% were satisfied with their ability to perform various activities; 96% were satisfied with pain relief. A mean postoperative flexion arc of 96° was observed. Final 36-Item Short Form Health Survey, EuroQol in 5 dimensions, Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Arthritis Index, and Harris Hip scores were lower than reference populations, particularly for mobility, physical functioning, and social functioning subscores. Young adults with end-stage hip involvement and severe longstanding juvenile idiopathic arthritis expressed high satisfaction with total hip arthroplasty, which improved range of motion, pain, and stiffness, despite poor performance on widely used outcome measures.

Correlation between subjective evaluation of symptoms and objective findings in early recurrent head and neck squamous cell carcinoma.

IMPORTANCE: This study addresses the value of patients' reported symptoms as markers of tumor recurrence after definitive therapy for head and neck squamous cell carcinoma. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the correlation between patients' symptoms and objective findings in the diagnosis of local and/or regional recurrences of head and neck squamous cell carcinomas in the first 2 years of follow-up. DESIGN: Retrospective single-institution study of a prospectively collected database. SETTING: Regional hospital. PARTICIPANTS: We reviewed the clinical records of patients treated for oral cavity, oropharyngeal, laryngeal, and hypopharyngeal carcinomas between January 1, 2008, and December 31, 2009, with a minimum follow-up of 2 years. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Correlation between symptoms and oncologic status (recurrence vs remission) in the posttreatment period. RESULTS: Of the 101 patients included, 30 had recurrences. Pain, odynophagia, and dysphonia were independently correlated with recurrence (odds ratios, 16.07, 11.20, and 5.90, respectively; P < .001). New-onset symptoms had the best correlation with recurrences. Correlation was better between 6 to 12 and 18 to 21 months after therapy and in patients initially treated unimodally (P < .05). Primary stage and tumor site had no effect. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: The correlation between symptoms and oncologic status is low during substantial periods within the first 2 years of follow-up. New-onset symptoms, especially pain, odynophagia, or dysphonia, better correlate with tumor recurrence, especially in patients treated unimodally.

Assessing small non-zero perceptions of chance: The case of H1N1 (swine) flu risks

Feelings of invulnerability, seen in judgments of 0% risk, can reflect misunderstandings of risk and risk behaviors, suggesting increased need for risk communication. However, judgments of 0% risk may be given by individuals who feel invulnerable, and by individuals who are rounding from small non-zero probabilities. We examined the effect of allowing participants to give more precise responses in the 0-1% range on the validity of reported probability judgments. Participants assessed probabilities for getting H1N1 influenza and dying from it conditional on infection, using a 0-100% visual linear scale. Those responding in the 0-1% range received a follow-up question with more options in that range. This two-step procedure reduced the use of 0% and increased the resolution of responses in the 0-1% range. Moreover, revised probability responses improved predictions of attitudes and self-reported behaviors. Hence, our two-step procedure allows for more precise and more valid measurement of perceived invulnerability. [Authors]