801 resultados para Strategic Foresight


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The purpose of this work is to understand the internal and external structure in which the company operates to provide an idea of the strategic actions needed to accomplish their organizational objectives. A strategic software was employed to build up phase one and phase two, phase one involved analysing internal and external factors that influence the company, comprehending their core competences, factors that influence the market and identification of strengths and weaknesses. Phase two consisted on providing an idea of their real competitive position and the suggestion of a development strategy, given the possible limitations in the external factors, the company should carefully analyse some of the opportunities present in the industry overseas to continue to develop their business and increase its profitability. Furthermore, a source of competitive advantage was found in their outbound logistics which could serve a differentiator between their competitors.

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This study investigates the importance and benefits of having a strategic Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) program by testing the interrelationships between strategic CSR with three external (reputation, corporate image, and customer loyalty) and four internal (organizational commitment, job satisfaction, performance, and organizational deviance) variables. 269 clients and non-clients along with 190 employees and their direct supervisors completed the survey. Strategic CSR has shown to have a positive impact on all the variables studied with the exception of organizational deviance. Practical implications and suggestions for future research are discussed.

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Economics is a social science which, therefore, focuses on people and on the decisions they make, be it in an individual context, or in group situations. It studies human choices, in face of needs to be fulfilled, and a limited amount of resources to fulfill them. For a long time, there was a convergence between the normative and positive views of human behavior, in that the ideal and predicted decisions of agents in economic models were entangled in one single concept. That is, it was assumed that the best that could be done in each situation was exactly the choice that would prevail. Or, at least, that the facts that economics needed to explain could be understood in the light of models in which individual agents act as if they are able to make ideal decisions. However, in the last decades, the complexity of the environment in which economic decisions are made and the limits on the ability of agents to deal with it have been recognized, and incorporated into models of decision making in what came to be known as the bounded rationality paradigm. This was triggered by the incapacity of the unboundedly rationality paradigm to explain observed phenomena and behavior. This thesis contributes to the literature in three different ways. Chapter 1 is a survey on bounded rationality, which gathers and organizes the contributions to the field since Simon (1955) first recognized the necessity to account for the limits on human rationality. The focus of the survey is on theoretical work rather than the experimental literature which presents evidence of actual behavior that differs from what classic rationality predicts. The general framework is as follows. Given a set of exogenous variables, the economic agent needs to choose an element from the choice set that is avail- able to him, in order to optimize the expected value of an objective function (assuming his preferences are representable by such a function). If this problem is too complex for the agent to deal with, one or more of its elements is simplified. Each bounded rationality theory is categorized according to the most relevant element it simplifes. Chapter 2 proposes a novel theory of bounded rationality. Much in the same fashion as Conlisk (1980) and Gabaix (2014), we assume that thinking is costly in the sense that agents have to pay a cost for performing mental operations. In our model, if they choose not to think, such cost is avoided, but they are left with a single alternative, labeled the default choice. We exemplify the idea with a very simple model of consumer choice and identify the concept of isofin curves, i.e., sets of default choices which generate the same utility net of thinking cost. Then, we apply the idea to a linear symmetric Cournot duopoly, in which the default choice can be interpreted as the most natural quantity to be produced in the market. We find that, as the thinking cost increases, the number of firms thinking in equilibrium decreases. More interestingly, for intermediate levels of thinking cost, an equilibrium in which one of the firms chooses the default quantity and the other best responds to it exists, generating asymmetric choices in a symmetric model. Our model is able to explain well-known regularities identified in the Cournot experimental literature, such as the adoption of different strategies by players (Huck et al. , 1999), the inter temporal rigidity of choices (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003) and the dispersion of quantities in the context of di cult decision making (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003). Chapter 3 applies a model of bounded rationality in a game-theoretic set- ting to the well-known turnout paradox in large elections, pivotal probabilities vanish very quickly and no one should vote, in sharp contrast with the ob- served high levels of turnout. Inspired by the concept of rhizomatic thinking, introduced by Bravo-Furtado & Côrte-Real (2009a), we assume that each per- son is self-delusional in the sense that, when making a decision, she believes that a fraction of the people who support the same party decides alike, even if no communication is established between them. This kind of belief simplifies the decision of the agent, as it reduces the number of players he believes to be playing against { it is thus a bounded rationality approach. Studying a two-party first-past-the-post election with a continuum of self-delusional agents, we show that the turnout rate is positive in all the possible equilibria, and that it can be as high as 100%. The game displays multiple equilibria, at least one of which entails a victory of the bigger party. The smaller one may also win, provided its relative size is not too small; more self-delusional voters in the minority party decreases this threshold size. Our model is able to explain some empirical facts, such as the possibility that a close election leads to low turnout (Geys, 2006), a lower margin of victory when turnout is higher (Geys, 2006) and high turnout rates favoring the minority (Bernhagen & Marsh, 1997).

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Based on the report for the unit “Foresight Analysis Methods” of the PhD program on Technology Assessment in 2013. This unit was supervised by Prof. António Moniz. The paper had meanwhile contributions from the supervisor and Dr. Douglas Robinson.

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The global dynamics of alliances are strongly determined by the level of cooperation among states. This cooperation can be embodied in various aspects, but the level of defense and security cooperation becomes usually more doctrinal and lasting. By the nature of sovereignty that instills in the bilateral relationship, cooperation at defense and security level can leverages other forms of cooperation. The circumstances and relational balance between Brazil and Portugal seem to evolve towards distancing opportunities, despite they are culturally and institutionally untainted. The economic dynamics, the strategic projection in global sustainability terms, the scale and ambition of Brazilian regional leadership, contrasts with the actual context of Portugal, distancing himself both on the stage where they operate. On the other hand, the historical and cultural roots, the language, the affinity of the peoples of CPLP and some opportunities for economic niches, trend to attract both countries. The condition of Portugal in NATO and Europe, coupled with the ability to export technical and human resources to value-added for Brazil, seems also to become approaching factors. On the balance of these dynamics, there is a set of exogenous factors (economic, external global relations matrix, regional stability, among others), which are not always controlled by any of both countries. These factors call for strong capacity for foresight analysis and decision making, with the inherent risk. There is cooperation vectors that are not apparently penalized by geographic distance, or by the difference of realities. Among these vectors we shall highlight synergies in technological niches, highly tradable goods and, mostly, using the domain of dual technologies. The thirteen niches herein identified are: Monitoring, Navigation, Command and Control, Electronics, Optoelectronics, Communication and remote sensing, Information Technologies, Flight Simulation, Specialized Training, Fiber Optic Sensors, Materials Engineering, Nanotechnology and Communications. Cumulating with identified opportunities in traditional relational framework, both countries are growing (in geography and economic terms) into the Atlantic, making it a central element in the bilateral approach. By being at the same time a growing stage of disputes and which stability tends to be threatened, it will be done an analysis of these synergistic vectors, superimposed on the impact on Atlantic securitization process.

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This thesis is a case study on Corporate Governance and Business Ethics, using the Portuguese Corporate Law as a general setting. The thesis was conducted in Portugal with illustrations on past cases under the Business Judgment Rule of the State of Delaware, U.SA along with illustrations on current cases in Portugal under the Portuguese Judicial setting, along with a comparative analysis between both. A debate is being considered among scholars and executives; a debate on best practices within corporate governance and corporate law, associated with recent discoveries of unlawful investments that lead to the bankruptcy of leading institutions and an aggravation of the crisis in Portugal. The study aimed at learning possible reasons and causes for the current situation of the country’s corporations along with attempts to discover the best way to move forward. From the interviews and analysis conducted, this paper concluded that the corporate governance structure and legal frameworks in Portugal were not the sole influencers behind the actions and decisions of Corporate Executives, nor were they the main triggers for the recent corporate mishaps. But it is rather a combination of different factors that played a significant role, such as cultural and ethical aspects, individual personalities, and others all of which created gray areas beyond the legal structure, which in turn accelerated and aggravated the corporate governance crisis in the country.

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Tese de Doutoramento - Programa Doutoral em Engenharia Industrial e Sistemas (PDEIS)

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Vocational Education and Training (VET) is a continuous long-term process of economic, organisational and personal development. It envisions the construction of dynamic skills to improve performance, productivity and organisational, personal and social development. This article focuses on generating skills. It frames training as a process of work-linked training and as a primary source for generating skills whilst seeking to boost creativity. It sheds light upon the discussion pertaining to learning transfer as a necessary condition to structure performance and competitiveness. It highlights the Learning Transfer System Inventory (LTSI), because it allows to measure the effectiveness of training and it identifies the organisations' weaknesses. The data used were collected from the Eurostat Database.

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Identificación/caracterización del problema: El abastecimiento energético en base a fuentes no tradicionales o recursos no renovables es un tema altamente estratégico en las agendas de los Estados. El petróleo se está agotando y las existencias no alcanzarán para abastecer el consumo mundial.Esto ha llevado a Gobiernos a implementar alternativas de producción energética basadas en fuentes no tradicionales, tales como el Hidrógeno (H2), lo cual creará una Economía basada en el Hidrógeno.Argentina cuenta con una matriz energética dependiente en un 90 por ciento del petróleo y con reservas certificadas de petróleo y gas natural para 8,6 y 9,4 años respectivamente. Sin duda, los desafíos próximos serán: a) crear las herramientas necesarias para minimizar una potencial crisis energética en el corto plazo, y b) desarrollar políticas energéticas que articulen su autoabastecimiento e inserción en la Economía del Hidrógeno. Dado que Argentina cuenta con uno de los recursos renovables más importantes del mundo, "el viento", tiene condiciones inmejorables para obtener Hidrógeno (H2) por electrólisis del agua, utilizando energía eléctrica proveniente de fuentes renovables como la eólica (EE). Es por ello que apostar al desarrollo local del H2 basado en la EE nos ofrecerá como país, un rol estratégico en la futura Economía del Hidrógeno.Objetivo General: Identificar la actual Matriz Energética Argentina y reconocer los factores limitantes y oportunidades para la diversificación de la misma, utilizando la Energía Eólica (EE) como pilar hacia la Economía del Hidrógeno (Econo-H2). El fin último será esbozar herramientas de política energética e instrumentos regulatorios pertinentes, que sirvan de base para la formulación de una macro política energética.Metodología de Investigación: Se utilizarán técnicas de análisis de la siguiente información:a) Documental (textos, artículos, información periodística)b) Técnica, Legal y administrativa) Oral (Declaraciones oficiales-privadas y entrevistas)d) Visual (imágenes, gráficos y mapas)e) Datos (cronológicos, estadísticos y geográficos)Resultados esperados: La formulación de herramientas de política energética y de instrumentos regulatorios pertinentes, que sirvan de base para la formulación de una macro política energética que considere la Energía Eólica (EE) como un pilar fundamental para la diversificación de la matriz energética actual. Asimismo se reflexionará sobre la importancia de asociar la EE a la producción masiva del hidrógeno (H2) para la inserción y proyección futura de la Argentina hacia la Economía del Hidrógeno.Importancia del Proyecto: Argentina ha ratificado el protocolo de Kioto y forma parte de la Johannesburg Renewable Energy Coalition (JREC), por la cual ha asumido compromisos para fijar políticas nacionales de incentivo para el desarrollo de uso de energías renovables.Sin embargo, y a pesar de una serie de iniciativas y leyes promulgadas relacionadas a uso de energías renovables, hasta la fecha, no se ha logrado cumplir con metas concretas.Consideramos que uno de los factores fundamentales que ha dificultado esto, se basa en la ausencia de una política de Estado de mediano y largo plazo que incluya a las energías renovables como un objetivo concreto y un sistema de instrumentos y planes complementarios que acompañen dicha política.

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Otto-von-Guericke-Universtität Magdeburg, Fakultät für Wirtschaftswissenschaft, Univ., Dissertation, 2015

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The primary purpose of this exploratory empirical study is to examine the structural stability of a limited number of alternative explanatory factors of strategic change. On the basis of theoretical arguments and prior empirical evidence from two traditional perspectives, we propose an original empirical framework to analyse whether these potential explanatory factors have remained stable over time in a highly turbulent environment. This original question is explored in a particular setting: the population of Spanish private banks. The firms of this industry have experienced a high level of strategic mobility as a consequence of fundamental changes undergone in their environmental conditions over the last two decades (mainly changes related to the new banking and financial regulation process). Our results consistently support that the effect of most explanatory factors of strategic mobility considered did not remain stable over the whole period of analysis. From this point of view, the study sheds new light on major debates and dilemmas in the field of strategy regarding why firms change their competitive patterns over time and, hence, to what extent the "contextdependency" of alternative views of strategic change as their relative validation can vary over time for a given population. Methodologically, this research makes two major contributions to the study of potential determinants of strategic change. First, the definition and measurement of strategic change employing a new grouping method, the Model-based Cluster Method or MCLUST. Second, in order to asses the possible effect of determinants of strategic mobility we have controlled the non-observable heterogeneity using logistic regression models for panel data.