Stochastic dynamics of interacting haematopoietic stem cell niche lineages

Since we still know very little about stem cells in their natural environment, it is useful to explore their dynamics through modelling and simulation, as well as experimentally. Most models of stem cell systems are based on deterministic differential equations that ignore the natural heterogeneity of stem cell populations. This is not appropriate at the level of individual cells and niches, when randomness is more likely to affect dynamics. In this paper, we introduce a fast stochastic method for simulating a metapopulation of stem cell niche lineages, that is, many sub-populations that together form a heterogeneous metapopulation, over time. By selecting the common limiting timestep, our method ensures that the entire metapopulation is simulated synchronously. This is important, as it allows us to introduce interactions between separate niche lineages, which would otherwise be impossible. We expand our method to enable the coupling of many lineages into niche groups, where differentiated cells are pooled within each niche group. Using this method, we explore the dynamics of the haematopoietic system from a demand control system perspective. We find that coupling together niche lineages allows the organism to regulate blood cell numbers as closely as possible to the homeostatic optimum. Furthermore, coupled lineages respond better than uncoupled ones to random perturbations, here the loss of some myeloid cells. This could imply that it is advantageous for an organism to connect together its niche lineages into groups. Our results suggest that a potential fruitful empirical direction will be to understand how stem cell descendants communicate with the niche and how cancer may arise as a result of a failure of such communication.

Post-transcriptional regulation in the nucleus and cytoplasm: study of mean time to threshold (MTT) and narrow escape problem

Messenger RNAs (mRNAs) can be repressed and degraded by small non-coding RNA molecules. In this paper, we formulate a coarsegrained Markov-chain description of the post-transcriptional regulation of mRNAs by either small interfering RNAs (siRNAs) or microRNAs (miRNAs). We calculate the probability of an mRNA escaping from its domain before it is repressed by siRNAs/miRNAs via cal- culation of the mean time to threshold: when the number of bound siRNAs/miRNAs exceeds a certain threshold value, the mRNA is irreversibly repressed. In some cases,the analysis can be reduced to counting certain paths in a reduced Markov model. We obtain explicit expressions when the small RNA bind irreversibly to the mRNA and we also discuss the reversible binding case. We apply our models to the study of RNA interference in the nucleus, examining the probability of mRNAs escaping via small nuclear pores before being degraded by siRNAs. Using the same modelling framework, we further investigate the effect of small, decoy RNAs (decoys) on the process of post-transcriptional regulation, by studying regulation of the tumor suppressor gene, PTEN : decoys are able to block binding sites on PTEN mRNAs, thereby educing the number of sites available to siRNAs/miRNAs and helping to protect it from repression. We calculate the probability of a cytoplasmic PTEN mRNA translocating to the endoplasmic reticulum before being repressed by miRNAs. We support our results with stochastic simulations

Fluctuations in protein synthesis from a single RNA template: Stochastic kinetics of ribosomes

Proteins are polymerized by cyclic machines called ribosomes, which use their messenger RNA (mRNA) track also as the corresponding template, and the process is called translation. We explore, in depth and detail, the stochastic nature of the translation. We compute various distributions associated with the translation process; one of them-namely, the dwell time distribution-has been measured in recent single-ribosome experiments. The form of the distribution, which fits best with our simulation data, is consistent with that extracted from the experimental data. For our computations, we use a model that captures both the mechanochemistry of each individual ribosome and their steric interactions. We also demonstrate the effects of the sequence inhomogeneities of real genes on the fluctuations and noise in translation. Finally, inspired by recent advances in the experimental techniques of manipulating single ribosomes, we make theoretical predictions on the force-velocity relation for individual ribosomes. In principle, all our predictions can be tested by carrying out in vitro experiments.

Intermittent Dynamics, Stochastic Resonance and Dynamical Heterogeneity in Supercooled Liquid Water

Here we find through computer simulations and theoretical analysis that the low temperature thermodynamic anomalies of liquid water arises from the intermittent fluctuation between its high density and low density forms, consisting largely of 5-coordinated and 4-coordinated water molecules, respectively. The fluctuations exhibit strong dynamic heterogeneity (defined by the four point time correlation function), accompanied by a divergence like growth of the dynamic correlation length, of the type encountered in fragile supercooled liquids. The intermittency has been explained by invoking a two state model often employed to understand stochastic resonance, with the relevant periodic perturbation provided here by the fluctuation of the total volume of the system.

Stochastic growth models for analyzing crustacean data

The contemporary methodology for growth models of organisms is based on continuous trajectories and thus it hinders us from modelling stepwise growth in crustacean populations. Growth models for fish are normally assumed to follow a continuous function, but a different type of model is needed for crustacean growth. Crustaceans must moult in order for them to grow. The growth of crustaceans is a discontinuous process due to the periodical shedding of the exoskeleton in moulting. The stepwise growth of crustaceans through the moulting process makes the growth estimation more complex. Stochastic approaches can be used to model discontinuous growth or what are commonly known as "jumps" (Figure 1). However, in stochastic growth model we need to ensure that the stochastic growth model results in only positive jumps. In view of this, we will introduce a subordinator that is a special case of a Levy process. A subordinator is a non-decreasing Levy process, that will assist in modelling crustacean growth for better understanding of the individual variability and stochasticity in moulting periods and increments. We develop the estimation methods for parameter estimation and illustrate them with the help of a dataset from laboratory experiments. The motivational dataset is from the ornate rock lobster, Panulirus ornatus, which can be found between Australia and Papua New Guinea. Due to the presence of sex effects on the growth (Munday et al., 2004), we estimate the growth parameters separately for each sex. Since all hard parts are shed too often, the exact age determination of a lobster can be challenging. However, the growth parameters for the aforementioned moult processes from tank data being able to estimate through: (i) inter-moult periods, and (ii) moult increment. We will attempt to derive a joint density, which is made up of two functions: one for moult increments and the other for time intervals between moults. We claim these functions are conditionally independent given pre-moult length and the inter-moult periods. The variables moult increments and inter-moult periods are said to be independent because of the Markov property or conditional probability. Hence, the parameters in each function can be estimated separately. Subsequently, we integrate both of the functions through a Monte Carlo method. We can therefore obtain a population mean for crustacean growth (e. g. red curve in Figure 1). [GRAPHICS]

Growth curves with time-dependent explanatory variables

A class of growth models incorporating time-dependent factors and stochastic perturbations are introduced. The proposed model includes the existing growth models used in fisheries as special cases. Particular attention is given to growth of a population (in average weight or length) from which observations are taken randomly each time and the analysis of tag-recapture data. Two real data sets are used for illustration: (a) to estimate the seasonal effect and population density effect on growth of farmed prawn (Penaeus monodon) from weight data and (b) to assess the effect of tagging on growth of barramundi (Lates calcarifer)

Early stopping by using stochastic curtailment in a three-arm sequential trial

Summary. Interim analysis is important in a large clinical trial for ethical and cost considerations. Sometimes, an interim analysis needs to be performed at an earlier than planned time point. In that case, methods using stochastic curtailment are useful in examining the data for early stopping while controlling the inflation of type I and type II errors. We consider a three-arm randomized study of treatments to reduce perioperative blood loss following major surgery. Owing to slow accrual, an unplanned interim analysis was required by the study team to determine whether the study should be continued. We distinguish two different cases: when all treatments are under direct comparison and when one of the treatments is a control. We used simulations to study the operating characteristics of five different stochastic curtailment methods. We also considered the influence of timing of the interim analyses on the type I error and power of the test. We found that the type I error and power between the different methods can be quite different. The analysis for the perioperative blood loss trial was carried out at approximately a quarter of the planned sample size. We found that there is little evidence that the active treatments are better than a placebo and recommended closure of the trial.

Bias reduction using stochastic approximation

The paper studies stochastic approximation as a technique for bias reduction. The proposed method does not require approximating the bias explicitly, nor does it rely on having independent identically distributed (i.i.d.) data. The method always removes the leading bias term, under very mild conditions, as long as auxiliary samples from distributions with given parameters are available. Expectation and variance of the bias-corrected estimate are given. Examples in sequential clinical trials (non-i.i.d. case), curved exponential models (i.i.d. case) and length-biased sampling (where the estimates are inconsistent) are used to illustrate the applications of the proposed method and its small sample properties.

Analysis of randomly time varying systems by gaussian closure technique

The Gaussian probability closure technique is applied to study the random response of multidegree of freedom stochastically time varying systems under non-Gaussian excitations. Under the assumption that the response, the coefficient and the excitation processes are jointly Gaussian, deterministic equations are derived for the first two response moments. It is further shown that this technique leads to the best Gaussian estimate in a minimum mean square error sense. An example problem is solved which demonstrates the capability of this technique for handling non-linearity, stochastic system parameters and amplitude limited responses in a unified manner. Numerical results obtained through the Gaussian closure technique compare well with the exact solutions.

Stochastic kinetics of ribosomes: Single motor properties and collective behavior

Syntheses of protein molecules in a cell are carried out by ribosomes.A ribosome can be regarded as a molecular motor which utilizes the input chemical energy to move on a messenger RNA (mRNA) track that also serves as a template for the polymerization of the corresponding protein. The forward movement, however, is characterized by an alternating sequence of translocation and pause. Using a quantitative model, which captures the mechanochemical cycle of an individual ribosome, we derive an exact analytical expression for the distribution of its dwell times at the successive positions on the mRNA track. Inverse of the average dwell time satisfies a Michaelis-Menten-type'' equation and is consistent with the general formula for the average velocity of a molecular motor with an unbranched mechanochemical cycle. Extending this formula appropriately, we also derive the exact force-velocity relation for a ribosome. Often many ribosomes each synthesizes a copy of the same protein. We extend the model of a single ribosome by incorporating steric exclusion of different individuals on the same track. We draw the phase diagram of this model of ribosome traffic in three-dimensional spaces spanned by experimentally controllable parameters. We suggest new experimental tests of our theoretical predictions.

Stochastic model for simulating maize yield

Maize is one of the most important crops in the world. The products generated from this crop are largely used in the starch industry, the animal and human nutrition sector, and biomass energy production and refineries. For these reasons, there is much interest in figuring the potential grain yield of maize genotypes in relation to the environment in which they will be grown, as the productivity directly affects agribusiness or farm profitability. Questions like these can be investigated with ecophysiological crop models, which can be organized according to different philosophies and structures. The main objective of this work is to conceptualize a stochastic model for predicting maize grain yield and productivity under different conditions of water supply while considering the uncertainties of daily climate data. Therefore, one focus is to explain the model construction in detail, and the other is to present some results in light of the philosophy adopted. A deterministic model was built as the basis for the stochastic model. The former performed well in terms of the curve shape of the above-ground dry matter over time as well as the grain yield under full and moderate water deficit conditions. Through the use of a triangular distribution for the harvest index and a bivariate normal distribution of the averaged daily solar radiation and air temperature, the stochastic model satisfactorily simulated grain productivity, i.e., it was found that 10,604 kg ha(-1) is the most likely grain productivity, very similar to the productivity simulated by the deterministic model and for the real conditions based on a field experiment. © 2012 American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers.

Stochastic modelling of monthly rainfall

A transformation is suggested which can transform a non-Gaussian monthly hydrological time series into a Gaussian one. The suggested approach is verified with data of ten Indian rainfall time series. Incidentally, it is observed that once the deterministic trends are removed, the transformation leads to an uncorrelated process for monthly rainfall. The procedure for normalization is general enough in that it should be also applicable to river discharges. This is verified to a limited extent by considering data of two Indian river discharges.

Output feedback control of networked systems with a stochastic communication protocol

This paper addresses an output feedback control problem for a class of networked control systems (NCSs) with a stochastic communication protocol. Under the scenario that only one sensor is allowed to obtain the communication access at each transmission instant, a stochastic communication protocol is first defined, where the communication access is modelled by a discrete-time Markov chain with partly unknown transition probabilities. Secondly, by use of a network-based output feedback control strategy and a time-delay division method, the closed-loop system is modeled as a stochastic system with multi time-varying delays, where the inherent characteristic of the network delay is well considered to improve the control performance. Then, based on the above constructed stochastic model, two sufficient conditions are derived for ensuring the mean-square stability and stabilization of the system under consideration. Finally, two examples are given to show the effectiveness of the proposed method.

The fully implicit stochastic-alpha method for stiff stochastic differential equations

A fully implicit integration method for stochastic differential equations with significant multiplicative noise and stiffness in both the drift and diffusion coefficients has been constructed, analyzed and illustrated with numerical examples in this work. The method has strong order 1.0 consistency and has user-selectable parameters that allow the user to expand the stability region of the method to cover almost the entire drift-diffusion stability plane. The large stability region enables the method to take computationally efficient time steps. A system of chemical Langevin equations simulated with the method illustrates its computational efficiency.

Geometry-free stochastic analysis of BDS triple frequency signals

The paper presents a geometry-free approach to assess the variation of covariance matrices of undifferenced triple frequency GNSS measurements and its impact on positioning solutions. Four independent geometryfree/ ionosphere-free (GFIF) models formed from original triple-frequency code and phase signals allow for effective computation of variance-covariance matrices using real data. Variance Component Estimation (VCE) algorithms are implemented to obtain the covariance matrices for three pseudorange and three carrier-phase signals epoch-by-epoch. Covariance results from the triple frequency Beidou System (BDS) and GPS data sets demonstrate that the estimated standard deviation varies in consistence with the amplitude of actual GFIF error time series. The single point positioning (SPP) results from BDS ionosphere-free measurements at four MGEX stations demonstrate an improvement of up to about 50% in Up direction relative to the results based on a mean square statistics. Additionally, a more extensive SPP analysis at 95 global MGEX stations based on GPS ionosphere-free measurements shows an average improvement of about 10% relative to the traditional results. This finding provides a preliminary confirmation that adequate consideration of the variation of covariance leads to the improvement of GNSS state solutions.