Integrated modelling of climate change impacts on water resources and quality in a lowland catchment: River Kennet, UK

An integrated approach to climate change impact assessment is explored by linking established models of regional climate (SDSM), water resources (CATCHMOD) and water quality (INCA) within a single framework. A case study of the River Kennet illustrates how the system can be used to investigate aspects of climate change uncertainty, deployable water resources, and water quality dynamics in upper and lower reaches of the drainage network. The results confirm the large uncertainty in climate change scenarios and freshwater impacts due to the choice of general circulation model (GCM). This uncertainty is shown to be greatest during summer months as evidenced by large variations between GCM-derived projections of future tow river flows, deployable yield from groundwater, severity of nutrient flushing episodes, and Long-term trends in surface water quality. Other impacts arising from agricultural land-use reform or delivery of EU Water Framework Directive objectives under climate change could be evaluated using the same framework. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A state-of-the-art survey of the economics of water quality : a report submitted to the U. S. Army Engineer Institute for Water Resources ... /

"Review draft."

Planning and cost sharing policy options for water and related land programs.

Some parts are composed chiefly of statistical tables.

Calculating the balance between water resources and water demands:an approach using risk analysis

Predicting future need for water resources has traditionally been, at best, a crude mixture of art and science. This has prevented the evaluation of water need from being carried out in either a consistent or comprehensive manner. This inconsistent and somewhat arbitrary approach to water resources planning led to well publicised premature developments in the 1970's and 1980's but privatisation of the Water Industry, including creation of the Office of Water Services and the National Rivers Authority in 1989, turned the tide of resource planning to the point where funding of schemes and their justification by the Regulators could no longer be assumed. Furthermore, considerable areas of uncertainty were beginning to enter the debate and complicate the assessment It was also no longer appropriate to consider that contingencies would continue to lie solely on the demand side of the equation. An inability to calculate the balance between supply and demand may mean an inability to meet standards of service or, arguably worse, an excessive provision of water resources and excessive costs to customers. United Kingdom Water Industry Research limited (UKWlR) Headroom project in 1998 provided a simple methodology for the calculation of planning margins. This methodology, although well received, was not, however, accepted by the Regulators as a tool sufficient to promote resource development. This thesis begins by considering the history of water resource planning in the UK, moving on to discuss events following privatisation of the water industry post·1985. The mid section of the research forms the bulk of original work and provides a scoping exercise which reveals a catalogue of uncertainties prevalent within the supply-demand balance. Each of these uncertainties is considered in terms of materiality, scope, and whether it can be quantified within a risk analysis package. Many of the areas of uncertainty identified would merit further research. A workable, yet robust, methodology for evaluating the balance between water resources and water demands by using a spreadsheet based risk analysis package is presented. The technique involves statistical sampling and simulation such that samples are taken from input distributions on both the supply and demand side of the equation and the imbalance between supply and demand is calculated in the form of an output distribution. The percentiles of the output distribution represent different standards of service to the customer. The model allows dependencies between distributions to be considered, for improved uncertainties to be assessed and for the impact of uncertain solutions to any imbalance to be calculated directly. The method is considered a Significant leap forward in the field of water resource planning.

Low-flow estimates in regions of extrapolation of the regionalization equations: a new concept

ABSTRACT Knowledge of natural water availability, which is characterized by low flows, is essential for planning and management of water resources. One of the most widely used hydrological techniques to determine streamflow is regionalization, but the extrapolation of regionalization equations beyond the limits of sample data is not recommended. This paper proposes a new method for reducing overestimation errors associated with the extrapolation of regionalization equations for low flows. The method is based on the use of a threshold value for the maximum specific low flow discharge estimated at the gauging sites that are used in the regionalization. When a specific low flow, which has been estimated using the regionalization equation, exceeds the threshold value, the low flow can be obtained by multiplying the drainage area by the threshold value. This restriction imposes a physical limit to the low flow, which reduces the error of overestimating flows in regions of extrapolation. A case study was done in the Urucuia river basin, in Brazil, and the results showed the regionalization equation to perform positively in reducing the risk of extrapolation.

The global-scale impacts of climate change on water resources and flooding under new climate and socio-economic scenarios

This paper presents a preliminary assessment of the relative effects of rate of climate change (four Representative Concentration Pathways - RCPs), assumed future population (five Shared Socio-economic Pathways - SSPs), and pattern of climate change (19 CMIP5 climate models) on regional and global exposure to water resources stress and river flooding. Uncertainty in projected future impacts of climate change on exposure to water stress and river flooding is dominated by uncertainty in the projected spatial and seasonal pattern of change in climate. There is little clear difference in impact between RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 in 2050, and between RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 in 2080. Impacts under RCP8.5 are greater than under the other RCPs in 2050 and 2080. For a given RCP, there is a difference in the absolute numbers of people exposed to increased water resources stress or increased river flood frequency between the five SSPs. With the ‘middle-of-the-road’ SSP2, climate change by 2050 would increase exposure to water resources stress for between approximately 920 and 3400 million people under the highest RCP, and increase exposure to river flood risk for between 100 and 580 million people. Under RCP2.6, exposure to increased water scarcity would be reduced in 2050 by 22-24%, compared to impacts under the RCP8.5, and exposure to increased flood frequency would be reduced by around 16%. The implications of climate change for actual future losses and adaptation depend not only on the numbers of people exposed to changes in risk, but also on the qualitative characteristics of future worlds as described in the different SSPs. The difference in ‘actual’ impact between SSPs will therefore be greater than the differences in numbers of people exposed to impact.

Stakeholder analysis combined with social network analysis provides fine-grained insights into water infrastructure planning processes

Environmental policy and decision-making are characterized by complex interactions between different actors and sectors. As a rule, a stakeholder analysis is performed to understand those involved, but it has been criticized for lacking quality and consistency. This lack is remedied here by a formal social network analysis that investigates collaborative and multi-level governance settings in a rigorous way. We examine the added value of combining both elements. Our case study examines infrastructure planning in the Swiss water sector. Water supply and wastewater infrastructures are planned far into the future, usually on the basis of projections of past boundary conditions. They affect many actors, including the population, and are expensive. In view of increasing future dynamics and climate change, a more participatory and long-term planning approach is required. Our specific aims are to investigate fragmentation in water infrastructure planning, to understand how actors from different decision levels and sectors are represented, and which interests they follow. We conducted 27 semi-structured interviews with local stakeholders, but also cantonal and national actors. The network analysis confirmed our hypothesis of strong fragmentation: we found little collaboration between the water supply and wastewater sector (confirming horizontal fragmentation), and few ties between local, cantonal, and national actors (confirming vertical fragmentation). Infrastructure planning is clearly dominated by engineers and local authorities. Little importance is placed on longer-term strategic objectives and integrated catchment planning, but this was perceived as more important in a second analysis going beyond typical questions of stakeholder analysis. We conclude that linking a stakeholder analysis, comprising rarely asked questions, with a rigorous social network analysis is very fruitful and generates complementary results. This combination gave us deeper insight into the socio-political-engineering world of water infrastructure planning that is of vital importance to our well-being.

Robust estimates of climate-induced hydrological change in a temperate mountainous region

A sustainable water resources management depends on sound information about the impacts of climate change. This information is, however, not easily derived because natural runoff variability interferes with the climate change signal. This study presents a procedure that leads to robust estimates of magnitude and Time Of Emergence (TOE) of climate-induced hydrological change that also account for the natural variability contained in the time series. Firstly, natural variability of 189 mesoscale catchments in Switzerland is sampled for 10 ENSEMBLES scenarios for the control (1984–2005) and two scenario periods (near future: 2025–2046, far future: 2074–2095) applying a bootstrap procedure. Then, the sampling distributions of mean monthly runoff are tested for significant differences with the Wilcoxon-Mann–Whitney test and for effect size with Cliff’s delta d. Finally, the TOE of a climate change induced hydrological change is determined when at least eight out of the ten hydrological projections significantly differ from natural variability. The results show that the TOE occurs in the near future period except for high-elevated catchments in late summer. The significant hydrological projections in the near future correspond, however, to only minor runoff changes. In the far future, hydrological change is statistically significant and runoff changes are substantial. Temperature change is the most important factor determining hydrological change in this mountainous region. Therefore, hydrological change depends strongly on a catchment’s mean elevation. Considering that the hydrological changes are predicted to be robust in the near future highlights the importance of accounting for these changes in water resources planning.

Planning and flexible operation of storage systems in power grids: from transmission to distribution networks

The first part of the thesis has been devoted to the transmission planning with high penetration of renewable energy sources. Both stationary and transportable battery energy storage (BES, BEST) systems have been considered in the planning model, so to obtain the optimal set of BES, BEST and transmission lines that minimizes the total cost in a power network. First, a coordinated expansion planning model with fixed transportation cost for BEST devices has been presented; then, the model has been extended to a planning formulation with a distance-dependent transportation cost for the BEST units, and its tractability has been proved through a case study based on a 190-bus test system. The second part of this thesis is then devoted to the analysis of planning and management of renewable energy communities (RECs). Initially, the planning of photovoltaic and BES systems in a REC with an incentive-based remuneration scheme according to the Italian regulatory framework has been analysed, and two planning models, according to a single-stage, or a multi-stage approach, have been proposed in order to provide the optimal set of BES and PV systems allowing to achieve the minimum energy procurement cost in a given REC. Further, the second part of this thesis is devoted to the study of the day-ahead scheduling of resources in renewable energy communities, by considering two types of REC. The first one, which we will refer to as “cooperative community”, allows direct energy transactions between members of the REC; the second type of REC considered, which we shall refer to as “incentive-based”, does not allow direct transactions between members but includes economic revenues for the community shared energy, according to the Italian regulation framework. Moreover, dispatchable renewable energy generation has been considered by including producers equipped with biogas power plants in the community.

Métodos de estimativa de descarga sólida em rios : análise comparativa

Transporte de sedimentos em bacias hidrográficas está relacionado com geomorfologia, ecologia fluvial, estabilidade das estruturas de engenharia e condições de navegação, dentre outros aspectos importantes para o planejamento e o controle de recursos hídricos. Existência de inúmeras variáveis envolvidas na mecânica de transporte de sedimentos e complexidade nas interações de processos físicos tornam difícil o estabelecimento de metodologias indiretas para estimativa de transporte de sedimentos em rios. Desta forma, não existe ainda metodologia universalmente aceita. O principal objetivo do presente trabalho é a análise comparativa de diferentes métodos empíricos disponíveis na literatura para estimativa de descargas sólidas em rios, considerando suas características específicas e resultados de aplicações às bacias dos rios Santa Joana e Santa Maria do Doce e microbacias Sossego e Santa Júlia, inseridas na porção da bacia do rio Doce localizada no Espírito Santo. Foram aplicados os métodos de estimativa indireta de descarga sólida: Einstein Modificado por Colby e Hembree (1955); Colby Simplificado (1957); Engelund & Hansen (1967); Ackers & White (1973); Yang (1973), Karim (1998) e Cheng (2002). Considerando as médias das estimativas de descarga sólida de material de leito (Qsml) relativas às campanhas realizadas em período chuvoso para a seção transversal do rio Doce, de maior porte, o método de Karim (1998), seguido pelo método de Ackers & White (1973), apresentou o maior valor, enquanto que o método de Yang (1973) apresentou o menor. Para os rios Santa Maria do Doce e Santa Joana e os córregos Santa Júlia e Sossego, verificou-se que o método de Ackers & White (1973), seguido de Karim (1998) e Yang (1973) apresentaram as maiores médias, enquanto que os métodos de Cheng (2002) e Engelund & Hansen (1967) apresentaram as menores. O método Simplificado de Colby apresentou as maiores estimativas de descargas sólidas totais (Qst) para todas as seções transversais de todos os cursos d'água monitorados. Concluiu-se que os diferentes métodos indiretos podem resultar em grandes diferenças em estimativas de transporte de sedimento em rios e que, desta forma, resultados de aplicação destes métodos devem ser considerados com muita cautela. Os resultados mostraram a grande importância de realização de campanhas de medição sedimentométricas para avaliação do transporte de sedimentos e definição dos melhores métodos indiretos de estimativa para cursos d'água específicos.

A comparative analysis of sustainable tourism, planning and development between Sligo and Donegal County Councils

Sustainable Development requires appropriate and continuous planning and management of economic, socio cultural and environmental resources. Tourism planning calls for continuous collaboration among tourism agencies, local authorities and local communities for success of the industry. While evidence suggests that tourism planning has been extensively documented, it is apparent that Donegal and Sligo County Councils have, in some cases failed to adequately address the significance of planning of the tourism industry for the North West of Ireland. This was investigated through interviews with chief planners of Donegal and Sligo county councils and was conducted in conjunction with the analysis of county development plans; which were formulated by both organisations involved in this study. Evidence suggests that although tourism is extensively documented by Donegal and Sligo county councils, neither of the two local authorities have developed implementation strategies to facilitate the promotion of sustainable tourism development. This research compares and analyses Donegal and Sligo county councils and how they plan for sustainable tourism development. It outlines the role of the county councils in relation to tourism planning and how Donegal and Sligo compare in how they plan for such a significant industry in the North West o f Ireland. It highlights the importance of implementation tools and methods and offers future directions that can assist in the development of sustainable tourism.

Exploring the Factors Affecting the Solubility of Chitosan in Water

We explore the role of crystallinity and inter- or intramolecular forces in chitosan for its solubility in water and demonstrate the expansion of its solubility to a wider pH range. Due to its semicrystalline nature, derived mainly from inter- and intramolecular hydrogen bonds, chitosan is water-soluble only at pH < 6. In acidic conditions, its amino groups can be partially protonated resulting in repulsion between positively charged macrochains, thereby allowing diffusion of water molecules and subsequent solvation of macromolecules. We show that chemical disruption of chitosan crystallinity by partial re-acetylation or physical disruption caused by the addition of urea and guanidine hydrochloride broadens the pH-solubility range for this biopolymer.

Evaluation by volatile profile of the synergistic antioxidant effect between bovine serum albumin and virgin olive oil phenolic compounds in an oil-in-water emulsion

THE OXIDATIVE STABILITY OF OIL-IN-WATER EMULSIONS, CONTAINING BOVINE SERUM ALBUMIN (BSA) AND VIRGIN OLIVE OIL PHENOLIC COMPOUNDS, WAS STUDIED BY THE DETERMINATION OF THE FORMATION OF VOLATILE OXIDATION PRODUCTS. FOUR OIL-IN-WATER EMULSIONS WITH AND WITHOUT PHENOLS ISOLATED FROM VIRGIN OLIVE OIL AND BSA WERE PREPARED. THESE MODEL SYSTEMS WERE STORED AT 60 degrees C TO ACCELERATE LIPID OXIDATION. VOLATILE OXIDATION PRODUCTS WERE MONITORED EVERY THREE DAYS BY HEADSPACE SOLID-PHASE MICROEXTRACTION COUPLED WITH GAS CHROMATOGRAPHY. ALTHOUGH INDIVIDUALLY OLIVE OIL PHENOLIC COMPOUNDS AND BSA SHOWED A SIGNIFICANT ANTIOXIDANT ACTIVITY, THE COMBINATION OF THESE COMPONENTS SHOWED A VERY GOOD SYNERGY, QUANTIFIED AS 127%. IN FACT, THE EMULSION CONTAINING BOTH PHENOLIC COMPOUNDS AND BSA SHOWED A VERY LOW LEVEL OF OXIDATIVE DETERIORATION AFTER 45 DAYS STORAGE.

Bovine serum albumin produces a synergistic increase in the antioxidant activity of virgin olive oil phenolic compounds in oil-in-water emulsions

Virgin olive oil is valued for its flavor, but unacceptable off-flavors may develop on storage in food products containing this oil due to oxidation. The oxidative stability of oil-in-water emulsions containing bovine serum albumin (BSA) and virgin olive oil phenolic compounds was studied. Four oil-in-water emulsions with and without BSA and phenols isolated from virgin olive oil were prepared. These model systems were stored at 60 degrees C to speed up lipid oxidation. Primary and secondary oxidation products were monitored every three days. Peroxide values and conjugated diene contents were determined as measures of the primary oxidation products. p-Anisidine values and volatile compounds were determined as measures of the secondary oxidation products. This latter determination was carried out by headspace solid-phase microextraction coupled with gas chromatography. Although olive oil phenolic compounds and BSA contributed some antioxidant activity when present as individual additives, the combination of BSA with phenols in an emulsion showed 58-127% synergy, depending on which analytical method was used in the calculation. The emulsion containing phenolic compounds and BSA showed a low level of deterioration after 45 days of storage at 60 degrees C.