Determinants of Portuguese trade: 1986-2010

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Mota-Engil new prospects of growth: Overcoming the financial crisis

The 2008 global financial crisis caused the collapse of business key sectors, declines in consumer wealth and a fall in economic activity resulting in a global recession. In some European countries, the 2008 crisis contributed to a sovereign-debt crisis which had a strong impact in Southern European countries. The construction sector was particularly affected, with budget cuts disturbing public investment and no financing available for private constructors. This report intends to explain how Mota-Engil, faced this situation of low growth, and which strategies were adopted by the management to overcome the difficult economic conjecture, mainly in its domestic market: Portugal. The report is organized as a case-study. The first part, the case narrative, is subdivided into 6 parts, and the second part is the teaching note. The teaching note is constituted by the four questions and their respective responses.

Banks and sovereigns: An econometric analysis of an entangled relationship

In this discussion OLS regressions are used to study the factors that influence sovereign yield spreads and domestic bank indeces for a set of euro area countries. The results show that common factors explain changes in bank indeces better than in the yields. Moreover, although there is some country differentiation, a common pattern among all is visible. A contemporary spillover effect between banks and sovereigns emerged after bank bailouts and became stronger with the burst of the sovereign debt crisis. The vicious cycle between the two has contributed to the escalation of spreads and to painful austerity measures.

Banco BPI and the reimbursement of contingent convertible subordinated bonds (CoCos)

This case study focuses on the BPI’s recapitalization plan, its causes and the reasons for the early reimbursement of CoCos in June 2014. The need for a capital intervention and the subsequent subscription agreement with the Portuguese Government of €1 500 million Core Tier 1 instruments were the result of a temporary capital buffer for sovereign debt exposures imposed by the European Banking Authority. The capital increase, the positive earnings in 2012 and 2013, the improvements in the sovereign debt crisis, the implementation of Basel III, in addition to the public exchange offer and the conversion of deferred tax assets into tax credits are the main factors for concluding the entire recapitalization operation three years before the deadline.

Covered interest parity

This report aims to study the evolution of the Covered Interest Rate Parity (CIP) over the course of the last years. With the 2007 financial crisis many fundamental relationships changed, and CIP was not an exception. To infer whether or not this was an isolate event, the behaviour of the CIP during the European Sovereign debt crisis was studied. Currency pairs such as EURUSD showed significant CIP deviations during both crises. This work shows that currently, spreads are mostly explained by counterparty risk and market sentiment factors, which are extremely different factors from the ones explaining the spread during 2003-06. Key

CTT, the mail going public

The main purpose of this case-study is to analyse CTT’s privatisation process, a previously Government-owned firm, which went public in 2013, under the terms of the adjustment program agreed between Portugal, the European institutions (ECB and European Commission) and the IMF. The emphasis will be placed on the IPO process, but also on the company itself (its history, current situation and prospects for its new phase, as a publicly listed company). This piece of work aims to evaluate the different alternatives for the privatisation of the company along with the respective implications, as well as the outcome of the actual decision taken by the Portuguese Government. One key aspect of the case is also to understand the importance that the privatisation of the Royal Mail, which can be seen as a peer of the Portuguese company, in the unfolding of the process and in the choice of the privatisation model. The case intends to show how the British process influenced the subsequent option of the Portuguese entities to sell CTT through an IPO, instead of a trade sale. All in all, the overall objective of this case-study is to analyse CTT’s successful sale process, which created the first Portuguese company with 100% free-float. 3 On the last days of November 2013, Steven Bernstein was staring at the window of his office overlooking downtown Manhattan, not even noticing the intense rain that was pouring down. As senior manager at ABC Fund, a pension fund responsible for managing more than 800 million dollars, his thoughts were focused on a very important decision that ABC Fund would have to make in just a matter of days. The American pension fund was considering whether or not to invest in the upcoming Initial Public Offering of CTT- Correios de Portugal, the Government-owned Portuguese mail company. Is this investment opportunity in accordance with the risk profile of a pension fund? Is it a wise decision to acquire shares in a Portuguese company when the country is at the centre of the European Sovereign debt crisis, going through a very demanding economic adjustment program imposed by its bail-out creditors? Would the creation of Portugal's Postal Bank make CTT a sure bet today when its price does not fully reflect the future benefits from entering financial services? Those were some of the questions that were constantly in Mr. Bernstein’s mind over the last couple of days and he was struggling to find the answers…

A Reorganização Administrativa do Território das Freguesias 2013 enquanto determinante de voto: estudo caso do Concelho de Braga e Guimarães

Dissertação de mestrado em Administração Pública

Model Uncertainty in Panel Vector Autoregressive Models.

We develop methods for Bayesian model averaging (BMA) or selection (BMS) in Panel Vector Autoregressions (PVARs). Our approach allows us to select between or average over all possible combinations of restricted PVARs where the restrictions involve interdependencies between and heterogeneities across cross-sectional units. The resulting BMA framework can find a parsimonious PVAR specification, thus dealing with overparameterization concerns. We use these methods in an application involving the euro area sovereign debt crisis and show that our methods perform better than alternatives. Our findings contradict a simple view of the sovereign debt crisis which divides the euro zone into groups of core and peripheral countries and worries about financial contagion within the latter group.

Model Uncertainty in Panel Vector Autoregressive Models.

We develop methods for Bayesian model averaging (BMA) or selection (BMS) in Panel Vector Autoregressions (PVARs). Our approach allows us to select between or average over all possible combinations of restricted PVARs where the restrictions involve interdependencies between and heterogeneities across cross-sectional units. The resulting BMA framework can find a parsimonious PVAR specification, thus dealing with overparameterization concerns. We use these methods in an application involving the euro area sovereign debt crisis and show that our methods perform better than alternatives. Our findings contradict a simple view of the sovereign debt crisis which divides the euro zone into groups of core and peripheral countries and worries about financial contagion within the latter group.

The Sustainable Debts of Philip II: A Reconstruction of Spain's Fiscal Position, 1560-1598

The defaults of Philip II have attained mythical status as the origin of sovereign debt crises. Four times during his reign the king failed to honor his debts and had to renegotiate borrowing contracts. In this paper, we reassess the fiscal position of Habsburg Spain. New archival evidence allows us to derive comprehensive estimates of debt and revenue. These show that primary surpluses were sufficient to make the king's debt sustainable in most scenarios. Spain's debt burden was manageable up to the 1580s, and its fiscal position only deteriorated for good after the defeat of the "Invincible Armada." We also estimate fiscal policy reaction functions, and show that Spain under the Habsburgs was at least as "responsible" as the US in the 20th century or as Britain in the 18th century. Our results suggest that the outcome of uncertain events such as wars may influence on a history of default more than strict adherence to fiscal rules.

Banks, government bonds, and default: what do the data say?

We use data from Bankscope to analyze the holdings of public bonds by over 18,000 banks located in 185 countries and the role of these bonds in 18 sovereign debt crises over the period 1998-2012. We find that: (i) banks hold a sizeable share of their assets in government bonds (about 9% on average), particularly in less financially developed countries; (ii) during sovereign crises, banks on average increase their bondholdings by 1% of their assets, but this increase is concentrated among larger and more profitable banks, and; (iii) the correlation between a bank's holdings of public bonds and its future loans is positive in normal times, but turns negative during defaults. A 10% increase in bank bond-holdings during default is associated with a 3.2% reduction in future loans, and bonds bought in normal times account for 75% of this effect. Our results are consistent with the view that there is a liquidity benefit for banks to hold public bonds in normal times, which is critical for understanding bank fragility during sovereign crises.

How Party Linkages Shape Austerity Politics: Clientelism and Fiscal Adjustment in Greece and Portugal during the Eurozone Crisis

Drawing on an analysis of austerity reforms in Greece and Portugal during the sovereign debt crisis from 2009 onwards, we show how the nature of the linkages between parties and citizens shapes party strategies of fiscal retrenchment. We argue that parties which rely to a greater extent on the selective distribution of state resources to mobilize electoral support (clientelistic linkages) are more reluctant to agree to fiscal retrenchment because their own electoral survival depends on their ability to control state budgets to reward clients. In Greece, where parties relied extensively on these clientelistic linkages, austerity reforms have been characterized by recurring conflicts and disagreements between the main parties, as well as a fundamental transformation of the party system. By contrast, in Portugal, where parties relied less on clientelistic strategies, austerity reforms have been more consensual because fiscal retrenchment challenged to a lesser extent the electoral base of the mainstream parties.

Análisis de la crisis financiera de estados unidos (2007-2008) y la crisis de deuda (2011): su relación e impacto sobre uno de los fundamentales de la economía colombiana, la tasa de cambio

Este documento presenta una perspectiva de como una economía pequeña y abierta (en temas comerciales y de inversión) como la colombiana, se ve afectada por choques que sufren economías grandes como la estadounidense. Durante el periodo de estudio la economía de Estados Unidos sufrió dos choques: primero la crisis de las hipotecas subprime en los años 2007-2008; luego la crisis de deuda soberana de Estados Unidos en 2011. Estos dos choques afectaron la economía colombiana. En ambos casos, se puede establecer un hecho clave que detonó las crisis. En el primero, la entrada en el capítulo 11 de protección a bancarrotas por parte de Lehman Brothers, el 15 de septiembre de 2008. En el segundo, el detonante fue la baja de la calificación de la deuda soberana de Estados Unidos por parte de Standard and Poor´s el 5 de agosto de 2011. Estos días claves en las crisis, afectaron los principales índices de la bolsa de Estados Unidos, especialmente los relacionados con la actividad financiera, luego es de suponer que posiblemente también afectaron fundamentales de la economía colombiana como lo es la tasa de cambio peso-dólar (USD/COP). Este documento tiene como objeto principal, establecer el impacto de las crisis Norteamericana de 2007-2008 y de 2011, sobre la economía colombiana, específicamente sobre la tasa de cambio USD/COP. El documento también, analiza las causas que generaron dichas crisis en Estados Unidos, haciendo énfasis en la falta de regulación y control por parte de las instituciones del gobierno en la crisis de las hipotecas subprime. De igual forma se analiza el papel de las firmas calificadoras de riesgo, en la crisis de deuda estadounidense.

Estructura a Plazo Colombia: Modelo Afín de tres factores

La estimación e interpretación de la estructura a plazo de la tasas de interés es de gran relevancia porque permite realizar pronósticos, es fundamental para la toma de decisiones de política monetaria y fiscal, es esencial en la administración de riesgos y es insumo para la valoración de diferentes activos financieros. Por estas razones, es necesario entender que puede provocar un movimiento en la estructura a plazo. En este trabajo se estiman un modelo afín exponencial de tres factores aplicado a los rendimientos de los títulos en pesos de deuda pública colombianos. Los factores estimados son la tasa corta, la media de largo plazo de la tasa corta y la volatilidad de la tasa corta. La estimación se realiza para el periodo enero 2010 a mayo de 2015 y se realiza un análisis de correlaciones entre los tres factores. Posterior a esto, con los factores estimados se realiza una regresión para identificar la importancia que tiene cada uno de estos en el comportamiento de las tasas de los títulos de deuda pública colombiana para diferentes plazos al vencimiento. Finalmente, se estima la estructura a plazo de las tasas de interés para Colombia y se identifica la relación de los factores estimados con los encontrados por Litterman y Scheinkman [1991] correspondientes al nivel, pendiente y curvatura.

What distinguishes the euro crisis from a ‘normal’ financial crisis? CEPS Commentary, 6 November 2012

This Commentary attempts to discern the distinguishing features between the present euro crisis and the financial crisis brought on in the US by the subprime lending disaster and the ensuing collapse of banks and other financial institutions in 2007-08. It finds that whereas the US was able to bring its crisis to an end by socialising the dubious debt and stabilising its valuation so that it could migrate to other investors capable of bearing the risk, this pattern can be only partly repeated in the eurozone, where both debt socialisation and a return to normal risk assessment are more problematic.. It concludes, nevertheless, that the crisis should now abate somewhat given that most risk-averse institutions have by now sold their holdings of peripheral countries’ sovereign debt and especially in light of the ECB’s assurances that it will not allow the euro to disintegrate.