Quantile regression without the curse of unsmoothness

We consider quantile regression models and investigate the induced smoothing method for obtaining the covariance matrix of the regression parameter estimates. We show that the difference between the smoothed and unsmoothed estimating functions in quantile regression is negligible. The detailed and simple computational algorithms for calculating the asymptotic covariance are provided. Intensive simulation studies indicate that the proposed method performs very well. We also illustrate the algorithm by analyzing the rainfall–runoff data from Murray Upland, Australia.

What are the key conditions associated with lower limb amputations in a major Australian teaching hospital?

Background Lower extremity amputation results in significant global morbidity and mortality. Australia appears to have a paucity of studies investigating lower extremity amputation. The primary aim of this retrospective study was to investigate key conditions associated with lower extremity amputations in an Australian population. Secondary objectives were to determine the influence of age and sex on lower extremity amputations, and the reliability of hospital coded amputations. Methods: Lower extremity amputation cases performed at the Princess Alexandra Hospital (Brisbane, Australia) between July 2006 and June 2007 were identified through the relevant hospital discharge dataset (n = 197). All eligible clinical records were interrogated for age, sex, key condition associated with amputation, amputation site, first ever amputation status and the accuracy of the original hospital coding. Exclusion criteria included records unavailable for audit and cases where the key condition was unable to be determined. Chi-squared, t-tests, ANOVA and post hoc tests were used to determine differences between groups. Kappa statistics were used to measure reliability between coded and audited amputations. A minimum significance level of p < 0.05 was used throughout. Results: One hundred and eighty-six cases were eligible and audited. Overall 69% were male, 56% were first amputations, 54% were major amputations, and mean age was 62 ± 16 years. Key conditions associated included type 2 diabetes (53%), peripheral arterial disease (non-diabetes) (18%), trauma (8%), type 1 diabetes (7%) and malignant tumours (5%). Differences in ages at amputation were associated with trauma 36 ± 10 years, type 1 diabetes 52 ± 12 years and type 2 diabetes 67 ± 10 years (p < 0.01). Reliability of original hospital coding was high with Kappa values over 0.8 for all variables. Conclusions: This study, the first in over 20 years to report on all levels of lower extremity amputations in Australia, found that people undergoing amputation are more likely to be older, male and have diabetes. It is recommended that large prospective studies are implemented and national lower extremity amputation rates are established to address the large preventable burden of lower extremity amputation in Australia.

Is simulation training effective in increasing podiatrists' confidence in foot ulcer management?

Background: Foot ulcers are a frequent reason for diabetes-related hospitalisation. Clinical training is known to have a beneficial impact on foot ulcer outcomes. Clinical training using simulation techniques has rarely been used in the management of diabetes-related foot complications or chronic wounds. Simulation can be defined as a device or environment that attempts to replicate the real world. The few non-web-based foot-related simulation courses have focused solely on training for a single skill or “part task” (for example, practicing ingrown toenail procedures on models). This pilot study aimed to primarily investigate the effect of a training program using multiple methods of simulation on participants’ clinical confidence in the management of foot ulcers. Methods: Sixteen podiatrists participated in a two-day Foot Ulcer Simulation Training (FUST) course. The course included pre-requisite web-based learning modules, practicing individual foot ulcer management part tasks (for example, debriding a model foot ulcer), and participating in replicated clinical consultation scenarios (for example, treating a standardised patient (actor) with a model foot ulcer). The primary outcome measure of the course was participants’ pre- and post completion of confidence surveys, using a five-point Likert scale (1 = Unacceptable-5 = Proficient). Participants’ knowledge, satisfaction and their perception of the relevance and fidelity (realism) of a range of course elements were also investigated. Parametric statistics were used to analyse the data. Pearson’s r was used for correlation, ANOVA for testing the differences between groups, and a paired-sample t-test to determine the significance between pre- and post-workshop scores. A minimum significance level of p < 0.05 was used. Results: An overall 42% improvement in clinical confidence was observed following completion of FUST (mean scores 3.10 compared to 4.40, p < 0.05). The lack of an overall significant change in knowledge scores reflected the participant populations’ high baseline knowledge and pre-requisite completion of web-based modules. Satisfaction, relevance and fidelity of all course elements were rated highly. Conclusions: This pilot study suggests simulation training programs can improve participants’ clinical confidence in the management of foot ulcers. The approach has the potential to enhance clinical training in diabetes-related foot complications and chronic wounds in general.

Developing a predictive contractor satisfaction model (CoSMo) for construction projects

Over the last few decades, construction project performance has been evaluated due to the increase of delays, cost overruns and quality failures. Growing numbers of disputes, inharmonious working environments, conflict, blame cultures, and mismatches of objectives among project teams have been found to be contributory factors to poor project performance. Performance measurement (PM) approaches have been developed to overcome these issues, however, the comprehensiveness of PM as an overall approach is still criticised in terms of the iron triangle; namely time, cost, and quality. PM has primarily focused on objective measures, however, continuous improvement requires the inclusion of subjective measures, particularly contractor satisfaction (Co-S). It is challenging to deal with the two different groups of large and small-medium contractor satisfaction as to date, Co-S has not been extensively defined, primarily in developing countries such as Malaysia. Therefore, a Co-S model is developed in this research which aims to fulfil the current needs in the construction industry by integrating performance measures to address large and small-medium contractor perceptions. The positivist paradigm used in the research was adhered to by reviewing relevant literature and evaluating expert discussions on the research topic. It yielded a basis for the contractor satisfaction model (CoSMo) development which consists of three elements: contractor satisfaction (Co-S) dimensions; contributory factors and characteristics (project and participant). Using valid questionnaire results from 136 contractors in Malaysia lead to the prediction of several key factors of contractor satisfaction and to an examination of the relationships between elements. The relationships were examined through a series of sequential statistical analyses, namely correlation, one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA), t-tests and multiple regression analysis (MRA). Forward and backward MRAs were used to develop Co-S mathematical models. Sixteen Co-S models were developed for both large and small-medium contractors. These determined that the large contractor Malaysian Co-S was most affected by the conciseness of project scope and quality of the project brief. Contrastingly, Co-S for small-medium contractors was strongly affected by the efficiency of risk control in a project. The results of the research provide empirical evidence in support of the notion that appropriate communication systems in projects negatively contributes to large Co-S with respect to cost and profitability. The uniqueness of several Co-S predictors was also identified through a series of analyses on small-medium contractors. These contractors appear to be less satisfied than large contractors when participants lack effectiveness in timely authoritative decision-making and communication between project team members. Interestingly, the empirical results show that effective project health and safety measures are influencing factors in satisfying both large and small-medium contractors. The perspectives of large and small-medium contractors in respect to the performance of the entire project development were derived from the Co-S models. These were statistically validated and refined before a new Co-S model was developed. Developing such a unique model has the potential to increase project value and benefit all project participants. It is important to improve participant collaboration as it leads to better project performance. This study may encourage key project participants; such as client, consultant, subcontractor and supplier; to increase their attention to contractor needs in the development of a project. Recommendations for future research include investigating other participants‟ perspectives on CoSMo and the impact of the implementation of CoSMo in a project, since this study is focused purely on the contractor perspective.

Weight gain and nutritional intake in obese pregnant women : some clues for intervention

Aim:  Maternal obesity is associated with increased risk of adverse outcomes for mothers and offspring. Strategies to better manage maternal obesity are urgently needed; however, there is little evidence to assist the development of nutrition interventions during antenatal care. The present study aimed to assess maternal weight gain and dietary intakes of overweight and obese women participating in an exercise trial. Results will assist the development of interventions for the management of maternal overweight and obesity. Methods:  Fifty overweight and obese pregnant women receiving antenatal care were recruited and provided dietary and weight data at baseline (12 weeks), 28 weeks, 36 weeks gestation and 6 weeks post-partum. Data collected were compared with current nutritional and weight gain recommendations. Associations used Pearson's correlation coefficient, and ANOVA assessed dietary changes over time, P < 0.05. Results:  Mean prepregnancy body mass index was 34.4 ± 6.6 kg/m2. Gestational weight gain was 10.6 ± 6 kg with a wide range (−4.1 to 23.0 kg). 52% of women gained excessive weight (>11.5 kg for overweight and >9 kg for obese women). Gestational weight gain correlated with post-partum weight retention (P < 0.001). Dietary intakes did not change significantly during pregnancy. No women achieved dietary fat or dietary iron recommendations, only 11% achieved adequate dietary folate, and 38% achieved adequate dietary calcium. Very few women achieved recommended food group servings for pregnancy, with 83% consuming excess servings of non-core foods. Conclusion:  Results provide evidence that early intervention and personalised support for obese pregnant women may help achieve individualised goals for maternal weight gain and dietary adequacy, but this needs to be tested in a clinical setting.

The relationship between quality of work life and turnover intention of primary health care nurses in Saudi Arabia

Background Quality of work life (QWL) has been found to influence the commitment of health professionals including nurses. However, reliable information on the QWL and turnover intention of primary health care (PHC) nurses is limited. The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between QWL and turnover intention of PHC nurses in Saudi Arabia. Methods A cross-sectional survey was used in this study. Data were collected using Brooks’ survey of Quality of Nursing Work life (QNWL), the Anticipated Turnover Scale and demographic data questions. A total of 508 PHC nurses in the Jazan region, Saudi Arabia completed the questionnaire (RR = 87%). Descriptive statistics, t-test, ANOVA, General Linear Model (GLM) univariate analysis, standard multiple regression (SMR), and hierarchical multiple regression (HMR) were applied for analysis using SPSS v17 for Windows. Results Findings suggested that the respondents were dissatisfied with their work life, with almost 40% indicating a turnover intention from their current PHC centres. Turnover intention was significantly related to QWL. Using SMR, 26% of the variance in turnover intention was explained by the QWL, p < 0.001, with R² = .263. Further analysis using HMR found that the total variance explained by the model as a whole (demographics and QWL) was 32.1%, p < 0.001. QWL explained an additional 19% of the variance in turnover intention, after controlling for demographic variables. Conclusions Creating and maintaining a healthy work life for PHC nurses is very important to improve their work satisfaction, reduce turnover, enhance productivity and improve nursing care outcomes.

Optimization of chimeric HIV-1 virus-like particle production in a baculovirus-insect cell expression system

A baculovirus-insect cell expression system potentially provides the means to produce prophylactic HIV-1 virus-like particle (VLP) vaccines inexpensively and in large quantities. However, the system must be optimized to maximize yields and increase process efficiency. In this study, we optimized the production of two novel, chimeric HIV-1 VLP vaccine candidates (GagRT and GagTN) in insect cells. This was done by monitoring the effects of four specific factors on VLP expression: these were insect cell line, cell density, multiplicity of infection (MOI), and infection time. The use of western blots, Gag p24 ELISA, and four-factorial ANOVA allowed the determination of the most favorable conditions for chimeric VLP production, as well as which factors affected VLP expression most significantly. Both VLP vaccine candidates favored similar optimal conditions, demonstrating higher yields of VLPs when produced in the Trichoplusia ni Pro insect cell line, at a cell density of 1 × 106 cells/mL, and an infection time of 96 h post infection. It was found that cell density and infection time were major influencing factors, but that MOI did not affect VLP expression significantly. This work provides a potentially valuable guideline for HIV-1 protein vaccine optimization, as well as for general optimization of a baculovirus-based expression system to produce complex recombinant proteins. © 2009 American Institute of Chemical Engineers.

Spatial and temporal analysis of Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland, Australia

Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is one of the most widespread mosquito-borne diseases in Australia. The number of outbreaks and the incidence rate of BFV in Australia have attracted growing concerns about the spatio-temporal complexity and underlying risk factors of BFV disease. A large number of notifications has been recorded continuously in Queensland since 1992. Yet, little is known about the spatial and temporal characteristics of the disease. I aim to use notification data to better understand the effects of climatic, demographic, socio-economic and ecological risk factors on the spatial epidemiology of BFV disease transmission, develop predictive risk models and forecast future disease risks under climate change scenarios. Computerised data files of daily notifications of BFV disease and climatic variables in Queensland during 1992-2008 were obtained from Queensland Health and Australian Bureau of Meteorology, respectively. Projections on climate data for years 2025, 2050 and 2100 were obtained from Council of Scientific Industrial Research Organisation. Data on socio-economic, demographic and ecological factors were also obtained from relevant government departments as follows: 1) socio-economic and demographic data from Australian Bureau of Statistics; 2) wetlands data from Department of Environment and Resource Management and 3) tidal readings from Queensland Department of Transport and Main roads. Disease notifications were geocoded and spatial and temporal patterns of disease were investigated using geostatistics. Visualisation of BFV disease incidence rates through mapping reveals the presence of substantial spatio-temporal variation at statistical local areas (SLA) over time. Results reveal high incidence rates of BFV disease along coastal areas compared to the whole area of Queensland. A Mantel-Haenszel Chi-square analysis for trend reveals a statistically significant relationship between BFV disease incidence rates and age groups (ƒÓ2 = 7587, p<0.01). Semi-variogram analysis and smoothed maps created from interpolation techniques indicate that the pattern of spatial autocorrelation was not homogeneous across the state. A cluster analysis was used to detect the hot spots/clusters of BFV disease at a SLA level. Most likely spatial and space-time clusters are detected at the same locations across coastal Queensland (p<0.05). The study demonstrates heterogeneity of disease risk at a SLA level and reveals the spatial and temporal clustering of BFV disease in Queensland. Discriminant analysis was employed to establish a link between wetland classes, climate zones and BFV disease. This is because the importance of wetlands in the transmission of BFV disease remains unclear. The multivariable discriminant modelling analyses demonstrate that wetland types of saline 1, riverine and saline tidal influence were the most significant risk factors for BFV disease in all climate and buffer zones, while lacustrine, palustrine, estuarine and saline 2 and saline 3 wetlands were less important. The model accuracies were 76%, 98% and 100% for BFV risk in subtropical, tropical and temperate climate zones, respectively. This study demonstrates that BFV disease risk varied with wetland class and climate zone. The study suggests that wetlands may act as potential breeding habitats for BFV vectors. Multivariable spatial regression models were applied to assess the impact of spatial climatic, socio-economic and tidal factors on the BFV disease in Queensland. Spatial regression models were developed to account for spatial effects. Spatial regression models generated superior estimates over a traditional regression model. In the spatial regression models, BFV disease incidence shows an inverse relationship with minimum temperature, low tide and distance to coast, and positive relationship with rainfall in coastal areas whereas in whole Queensland the disease shows an inverse relationship with minimum temperature and high tide and positive relationship with rainfall. This study determines the most significant spatial risk factors for BFV disease across Queensland. Empirical models were developed to forecast the future risk of BFV disease outbreaks in coastal Queensland using existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions under climate change scenarios. Logistic regression models were developed using BFV disease outbreak data for the existing period (2000-2008). The most parsimonious model had high sensitivity, specificity and accuracy and this model was used to estimate and forecast BFV disease outbreaks for years 2025, 2050 and 2100 under climate change scenarios for Australia. Important contributions arising from this research are that: (i) it is innovative to identify high-risk coastal areas by creating buffers based on grid-centroid and the use of fine-grained spatial units, i.e., mesh blocks; (ii) a spatial regression method was used to account for spatial dependence and heterogeneity of data in the study area; (iii) it determined a range of potential spatial risk factors for BFV disease; and (iv) it predicted the future risk of BFV disease outbreaks under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. In conclusion, the thesis demonstrates that the distribution of BFV disease exhibits a distinct spatial and temporal variation. Such variation is influenced by a range of spatial risk factors including climatic, demographic, socio-economic, ecological and tidal variables. The thesis demonstrates that spatial regression method can be applied to better understand the transmission dynamics of BFV disease and its risk factors. The research findings show that disease notification data can be integrated with multi-factorial risk factor data to develop build-up models and forecast future potential disease risks under climate change scenarios. This thesis may have implications in BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

What are the implications of peri-urban agriculture on food security in Australian cities?

Background: Periurban agriculture refers to agricultural practice occurring in areas with mixed rural and urban features. It is responsible 25% of the total gross value of economic production in Australia, despite only comprising 3% of the land used for agriculture. As populations grows and cities expand, they are constantly absorbing surrounding fringe areas, thus creating a new fringe, further from the city causing the periurban region to constantly shift outwards. Periurban regions are fundamental in the provision of fresh food to city populations and residential (and industrial) expansion taking over agricultural land has been noted as a major worldwide concern. Another major concern around the increase in urbanisation and resultant decrease in periurban agriculture is its potential effect on food security. Food security is the availability or access to nutritionally-adequate, culturally-relevant and safe foods in culturally-appropriate ways. Thus food insecurity occurs when access to or availability of these foods is compromised. There is an important level of connectedness between food security and food production and a decrease in periurban agriculture may have adverse effects on food security. A decrease in local, seasonal produce may result in a decrease in the availability of products and an increase in cost, as food must travel greater distances, incurring extra costs present at the consumer level. Currently, few Australian studies exist examining the change in periurban agriculture over time. Such information may prove useful for future health policy and interventions as well as infrastructure planning. The aim of this study is to investigate changes in periurban agriculture among capital cities of Australia. Methods: We compared data pertaining to selected commodities from the Australian Bureau of Statistics 2000-01 and 2005 -2006 Agricultural Census. This survey is distributed online or via mail on a five-yearly basis to approximately 175,000 Agricultural business to ascertain information on a range of factors, such as types of crops, livestock and land preparation practices. For the purpose of this study we compared the land being used for total crops, and cereal , oil seed, legume, fruit and vegetable crops separately. Data was analysed using repeated measures anova in spss. Results: Overall, total area available for crops in urbanised areas of Australia increased slightly by 1.8%. However, Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide and Perth experienced decreases in the area available for fruit crops by 11%, 5%,and 4% respectively. Furthermore, Brisbane and Perth experienced decreases in land available for vegetable crops by 28% and 14% respectively. Finally, Sydney, Adelaide and Perth experienced decreases in land available for cereal crops by 10 – 79%. Conclusions: These findings suggest that population increases and consequent urban sprawl may be resulting in a decrease in peri-urban agriculture, specifically for several core food groups including fruit, breads and grain based foods. In doing so, access to or availability of these foods may be limited, and the cost of these foods is likely to increase, which may compromise food insecurity for certain sub-groups of the population.

Rolling in the aisles : a comparative study of male and female grocery shopper typologies

The purpose of this paper is to segment male and female grocery shoppers based on store and product attribute evaluations. A rich profile for each segment is developed. Gender comparisons are operationalised and these developed contemporary shopper typologies are further contrasted against earlier works. Data of 560 grocery shoppers was attained by a survey questionnaire. Factor analysis, cluster analysis and ANOVA were employed to develop specific segments of shoppers. Four distinct cohorts of male shoppers and three cohorts of female shoppers emerge from the data of eight constructs, measured by 46 items. One new shopper type, not found in earlier typology literature, emerged from this research. This shopper presented as a young, well educated, at the commencement of their career and family lifecycle, attracted by a strong value offer and willingness to share the family food shopping responsibilities. This research makes a contribution to segmentation literature and grocery retail practice in several ways. It presents the first retail typology of male supermarket shoppers, employing a cluster analysis technique. Comparisons between male and female grocery shopping typologies are accordingly facilitated. The research provides insights into the modern family food shopping behaviour of men; a channel in which men are now recognised as equal contributors. Research outcomes encourage supermarket retailers to implement targeted marketing and rationalized operational strategies that deliver on attributes of importance. Finally, this research provides the basis for further cross-cultural, cross-contextual comparative studies.

A coupled SPH-DEM model for fluid and solid mechanics of apple parenchyma cells during drying

A coupled SPH-DEM based two-dimensional (2-D) micro-scale single cell model is developed to predict basic cell-level shrinkage effects of apple parenchyma cells during air drying. In this newly developed drying model, Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) is used to model the low Reynolds Number fluid motions of the cell protoplasm, and a Discrete Element Method (DEM) is employed to simulate the polymer-like cell wall. Simulations results reasonably agree with published experimental drying results on cellular shrinkage properties such as cellular area, diameter and perimeter. These preliminary results indicate that the model is effective for the modelling and simulation of apple parenchyma cells during air drying.

A particle-based micromechanics approach to simulate structural changes of plant cells during drying

This paper is concerned with applying a particle-based approach to simulate the micro-level cellular structural changes of plant cells during drying. The objective of the investigation was to relate the micro-level structural properties such as cell area, diameter and perimeter to the change of moisture content of the cell. Model assumes a simplified cell which consists of two basic components, cell wall and cell fluid. The cell fluid is assumed to be a Newtonian fluid with higher viscosity compared to water and cell wall is assumed to be a visco-elastic solid boundary located around the cell fluid. Cell fluid is modelled with Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) technique and for the cell wall; a Discrete Element Method (DEM) is used. The developed model is two-dimensional, but accounts for three-dimensional physical properties of real plant cells. Drying phenomena is simulated as fluid mass reductions and the model is used to predict the above mentioned structural properties as a function of cell fluid mass. Model predictions are found to be in fairly good agreement with experimental data in literature and the particle-based approach is demonstrated to be suitable for numerical studies of drying related structural deformations. Also a sensitivity analysis is included to demonstrate the influence of key model parameters to model predictions.

Numerical simulation of red blood cells' deformation using SPH method

A numerical simulation method for the Red Blood Cells’ (RBC) deformation is presented in this study. The two-dimensional RBC membrane is modeled by the spring network, where the elastic stretch/compression energy and the bending energy are considered with the constraint of constant RBC surface area. Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) method is used to solve the Navier-Stokes equation coupled with the Plasma-RBC membrane and Cytoplasm- RBC membrane interaction. To verify the method, the motion of a single RBC is simulated in Poiseuille flow and compared with the results reported earlier. Typical motion and deformation mechanism of the RBC is observed.

A coupled SPH/FEM analysis of portable water filled barriers

Portable water filled barriers (PWFB) are semi-rigid roadside barriers which have the potential to display good crash attenuation characteristics at low and moderate impact speeds. The traditional mesh based numerical methods alone fail to simulate this type of impact with precision, stability and efficiency. This paper proposes to develop an advanced simulation model based on the combination of Smoothed Particles Hydrodynamics (SPH), a meshless method, and finite element method (FEM) for fluid-structure analysis using the commercially available software package LS-Dyna. The interaction between SPH particles and FEA elements is studied in this paper. Two methods of element setup at the element boundary were investigated. The response of the impacted barrier and fluid inside were analysed and compared. The system response and lagging were observed and reported in this paper. It was demonstrated that coupled SPH/FEM can be used in full scale PWFB modelling application. This will aid the research in determining the best initial setup to couple FEA and SPH in road safety barrier for impact response and safety analysis in the future.

Power of QTL detection using association tests with family controls

The power of testing for a population-wide association between a biallelic quantitative trait locus and a linked biallelic marker locus is predicted both empirically and deterministically for several tests. The tests were based on the analysis of variance (ANOVA) and on a number of transmission disequilibrium tests (TDT). Deterministic power predictions made use of family information, and were functions of population parameters including linkage disequilibrium, allele frequencies, and recombination rate. Deterministic power predictions were very close to the empirical power from simulations in all scenarios considered in this study. The different TDTs had very similar power, intermediate between one-way and nested ANOVAs. One-way ANOVA was the only test that was not robust against spurious disequilibrium. Our general framework for predicting power deterministically can be used to predict power in other association tests. Deterministic power calculations are a powerful tool for researchers to plan and evaluate experiments and obviate the need for elaborate simulation studies.