Stochastic foundations of dynamic trade and labor market models

This dissertation consists of three self-contained papers that are related to two main topics. In particular, the first and third studies focus on labor market modeling, whereas the second essay presents a dynamic international trade setup.rnrnIn Chapter "Expenses on Labor Market Reforms during Transitional Dynamics", we investigate the arising costs of a potential labor market reform from a government point of view. To analyze various effects of unemployment benefits system changes, this chapter develops a dynamic model with heterogeneous employed and unemployed workers.rn rnIn Chapter "Endogenous Markup Distributions", we study how markup distributions adjust when a closed economy opens up. In order to perform this analysis, we first present a closed-economy general-equilibrium industry dynamics model, where firms enter and exit markets, and then extend our analysis to the open-economy case.rn rnIn Chapter "Unemployment in the OECD - Pure Chance or Institutions?", we examine effects of aggregate shocks on the distribution of the unemployment rates in OECD member countries.rn rnIn all three chapters we model systems that behave randomly and operate on stochastic processes. We therefore exploit stochastic calculus that establishes clear methodological links between the chapters.

Monetary Policy, Exchange Rate Overshooting, and Endogenous Physical Capital

We develop an open economy macroeconomic model with real capital accumulation and microeconomic foundations. We show that expansionary monetary policy causes exchange rate overshooting, not once, but potentially twice; the secondary repercussion comes through the reaction of firms to changed asset prices and the firms' decisions to invest in real capital. The model sheds further light on the volatility of real and nominal exchange rates, and it suggests that changes in corporate sector profitability may affect exchange rates through international portfolio diversification in corporate securities.

El estado como eje articulador de las relaciones sociales

El presente trabajo intenta realizar una síntesis de cómo se fue articulando la sociedad a partir del modelo capitalista de producción en el período histórico que transcurre desde el impulso desarrollado en la Segunda Revolución Industrial, a finales del siglo XIX , hasta la primera década del siglo XXI. Este período determinará una forma de integración social que va estar vinculada al trabajo asalariado y ligada a un Estado más presente, articulador y distribuidor de la riqueza social. Algunos de los elementos constitutivos que sostuvieron este modelo fueron el New Deal y la política económica keynesiana, que van a perdurar hasta bien entrada la década de 1970. En esta etapa, la relación capital-trabajo va a entrar en crisis; el modelo keynesiano de pleno empleo no le es útil al capitalismo; y, por lo tanto, el Estado va a permitir la incorporación de un nuevo discurso, enarbolado por los denominados economistas liberales ortodoxos y, ya en la última década del siglo XX , por el economista norteamericano John Williamson, relacionado con un movimiento intelectual denominado "Consenso de Washington"; esto dando lugar una nueva forma de estructuración social en la que van a coexistir ganadores y perdedores del sistema. Se intenta explicar, además, el impacto que provocó en la Argentina adherir al modelo neoliberal a través de una economía abierta (1989-2002). Por último, describimos la situación de la Provincia de San Luis; los dispositivos y mecanismos que utilizó para contrarrestar los dos dígitos de desocupación producidos después del año 2002; para ello, nos referimos al Plan de Inclusión Social, expuesto a través de datos estadísticos tomados del INDEC y de la Dirección Provincial de Estadísticas y Censos de la Provincia de San Luis

El estado como eje articulador de las relaciones sociales

El presente trabajo intenta realizar una síntesis de cómo se fue articulando la sociedad a partir del modelo capitalista de producción en el período histórico que transcurre desde el impulso desarrollado en la Segunda Revolución Industrial, a finales del siglo XIX , hasta la primera década del siglo XXI. Este período determinará una forma de integración social que va estar vinculada al trabajo asalariado y ligada a un Estado más presente, articulador y distribuidor de la riqueza social. Algunos de los elementos constitutivos que sostuvieron este modelo fueron el New Deal y la política económica keynesiana, que van a perdurar hasta bien entrada la década de 1970. En esta etapa, la relación capital-trabajo va a entrar en crisis; el modelo keynesiano de pleno empleo no le es útil al capitalismo; y, por lo tanto, el Estado va a permitir la incorporación de un nuevo discurso, enarbolado por los denominados economistas liberales ortodoxos y, ya en la última década del siglo XX , por el economista norteamericano John Williamson, relacionado con un movimiento intelectual denominado "Consenso de Washington"; esto dando lugar una nueva forma de estructuración social en la que van a coexistir ganadores y perdedores del sistema. Se intenta explicar, además, el impacto que provocó en la Argentina adherir al modelo neoliberal a través de una economía abierta (1989-2002). Por último, describimos la situación de la Provincia de San Luis; los dispositivos y mecanismos que utilizó para contrarrestar los dos dígitos de desocupación producidos después del año 2002; para ello, nos referimos al Plan de Inclusión Social, expuesto a través de datos estadísticos tomados del INDEC y de la Dirección Provincial de Estadísticas y Censos de la Provincia de San Luis

El estado como eje articulador de las relaciones sociales

El presente trabajo intenta realizar una síntesis de cómo se fue articulando la sociedad a partir del modelo capitalista de producción en el período histórico que transcurre desde el impulso desarrollado en la Segunda Revolución Industrial, a finales del siglo XIX , hasta la primera década del siglo XXI. Este período determinará una forma de integración social que va estar vinculada al trabajo asalariado y ligada a un Estado más presente, articulador y distribuidor de la riqueza social. Algunos de los elementos constitutivos que sostuvieron este modelo fueron el New Deal y la política económica keynesiana, que van a perdurar hasta bien entrada la década de 1970. En esta etapa, la relación capital-trabajo va a entrar en crisis; el modelo keynesiano de pleno empleo no le es útil al capitalismo; y, por lo tanto, el Estado va a permitir la incorporación de un nuevo discurso, enarbolado por los denominados economistas liberales ortodoxos y, ya en la última década del siglo XX , por el economista norteamericano John Williamson, relacionado con un movimiento intelectual denominado "Consenso de Washington"; esto dando lugar una nueva forma de estructuración social en la que van a coexistir ganadores y perdedores del sistema. Se intenta explicar, además, el impacto que provocó en la Argentina adherir al modelo neoliberal a través de una economía abierta (1989-2002). Por último, describimos la situación de la Provincia de San Luis; los dispositivos y mecanismos que utilizó para contrarrestar los dos dígitos de desocupación producidos después del año 2002; para ello, nos referimos al Plan de Inclusión Social, expuesto a través de datos estadísticos tomados del INDEC y de la Dirección Provincial de Estadísticas y Censos de la Provincia de San Luis

Agricultural Policies and Development of Myanmar's Agricultural Sector: An Overview

This paper reviews the development of the agricultural sector in Myanmar after the transition to an open economy in 1988 and analyzes the nature as well as the performance of the agricultural sector. The avoidance of social unrest and the maintenance of control by the regime are identified as the two key factors that have determined the nature of agricultural policy after 1988. A major consequence of agricultural policy has been a clear difference in development paths among the major crops. Production of crops that had a potential for development showed sluggish growth due to policy constraints, whereas there has been a self-sustaining increase in the output of those crops that have fallen outside the remit of agricultural policy.

Business Cycles of Non-mono-cultural Developing Economies: The Case of ASEAN Countries

Based on analyses of actual data, we reveal that many Asian developing economies own economic structural features of "non-mono-cultural economy" and the "large primary good sector", which have not been discussed in developing economies RBC literature. We also examine the input-output tables to develop a model reflecting actual developing economies' structures. Referring to the analyses, we construct RBC models of ASEAN countries. Based on the model, we find that approximately half of GDP volatility is attributable to domestic productivity shocks, and the remaining half is attributable to price shocks.

Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy in Malaysia before the Asian Crisis

This paper provides a case study to characterize the monetary policy regime in Malaysia, from a medium- and long-term perspective. Specifically, we ask how the central bank of Malaysia, Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM), has structured its monetary policy regime, and how it has conducted monetary and exchange rate policy under the regime. By conducting three empirical analyses, we characterize the monetary and exchange rate policy regime in Malaysia by three intermediate solutions on three vectors: the degree of autonomy in monetary policy, the degree of variability of the exchange rate, and the degree of capital mobility.

Is It Worthwhile for Indonesia to Rush into a Free Trade Deal with Japan?

This report represents a preliminary attempt to refine some basic ideas on the potential impact Indonesia might experience from a free trade arrangement with Japan, using a forward-looking, multi-regional, multi-sectoral applied general equilibrium model of global trade to capture growth effects through capital accumulation paying attention to the changes in the patterns of interregional capital flows that might happen even before the policy change occurs. The simulation results revealed that the welfare gains of rushing into trade liberalization with Japan are not so large. This makes out that taking time over negotiations might be the best choice for Indonesia if the government places priority on convincing the Indonesian people that a free trade deal with Japan will definitely bring positive effects, while proceeding rapidly might be the answer if the country is serious about recovering the welfare levels that might be lowered by free trade arrangements among Malaysia, the Philippines, and Japan.

An Empirical Analysis of the Monetary Policy Reaction Function in India

This paper empirically analyzes India’s monetary policy reaction function by applying the Taylor (1993) rule and its open-economy version which employs dynamic OLS. The analysis uses monthly data from the period of April 1998 to December 2007. When the simple Taylor rule was estimated for India, the output gap coefficient was statistically significant, and its sign condition was found to be consistent with theoretical rationale; however, the same was not true of the inflation coefficient. When the Taylor rule with exchange rate was estimated, the coefficients of output gap and exchange rate had statistical significance with the expected signs, whereas the results of inflation remained the same as before. Therefore, the inflation rate has not played a role in the conduct of India’s monetary policy, and it is inappropriate for India to adopt an inflation-target type policy framework.

Large Fluctuations in Consumption in Least Developed Countries

The objective of this paper is to shed light on mechanism which increases fluctuation in consumption of least developed countries. In general large fluctuation in consumption makes consumers worse off. This fact suggests that accumulation of knowledge on the generating mechanism of the large consumption fluctuation very likely contributes to welfare improvement of the least developed countries, through policies stabilizing consumption. We specifically investigated the fluctuation in consumption, through the numerical analysis with a dynamic macroeconomic model.

International real business cycles : a re-visit

It is well known that several quantitative properties of international real business cycle models with are at odds with the data. First, the cross-country correlations are much higher for consumption than for output, while in the data the opposite is true (the BKK puzzle). Second, cross-country correlations of employment and investment are negative, while in the data they are positive. This paper quantitatively shows that preferences with a zero income effect on labor supply help generate a correct cross-country correlation in employment even without any restrictions on financial markets. In a bond economy, a zero income effect in labor supply, combined with time-to-build investment, can generate a positive cross-country correlation in investment, and the BKK puzzle is also resolved when the inter-temporal elasticity of substitution in labor supply is low.

Genetic rearrangements in the rfb regions of Vibrio cholerae O1 and O139.

The recent emergence of a pathogenic new non-O1 serotype (O139) of Vibrio cholerae has led to numerous studies in an attempt to identify the origins of this new strain. Our studies indicate that O139 strains have clear differences in the surface polysaccharides when compared with O1 strains: the lipopolysaccharide can be described as semi-rough. Southern hybridization with the O1 rfb region demonstrates that O139 strains no longer contain any of the rfb genes required for the synthesis of the O1 O-antigen or its modification and also lack at least 6 kb of additional contiguous DNA. However, O139 strains have retained rfaD and have a single open reading frame closely related to three small open reading frames of the O1 rfb region. This region is closely related to the H-repeat of Escherichia coli and to the transposases of a number of insertion sequence elements and has all the features of an insertion sequence element that has been designated VcIS1. Transposon insertion mutants defective in O139 O-antigen (and capsule) biosynthesis map to the same fragment as VcIS1. Preliminary sequence data of complementing clones indicate that this DNA encodes a galactosyl-transferase and other enzymes for the utilization of galactose in polysaccharide biosynthesis. We propose a mechanism by which both the Ogawa serotype of O1 strains and the O139 serotype strains may have evolved.

Essays on International Asset Allocation and Pricing

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Modeling of Flowing Film Concentrators - Part 1. Water Split Behaviour

A large number of mineral processing equipment employs the basic principles of gravity concentration in a flowing fluid of a few millimetres thick in small open channels where the particles are distributed along the flow height based on their physical properties and the fluid flow characteristics. Fluid flow behaviour and slurry transportation characteristics in open channels have been the research topic for many years in many engineering disciplines. However, the open channels used in the mineral processing industries are different in terms of the size of the channel and the flow velocity used. Understanding of water split behaviour is, therefore, essential in modeling flowing film concentrators. In this paper, an attempt has been made to model the water split behaviour in an inclined open rectangular channel, resembling the actual size and the flow velocity used by the mineral processing industries, based on the Prandtl's mixing length approach. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.