Vaccination against human papillomavirus in Switzerland: simulation of the impact on infection rates.

OBJECTIVES: Human papillomavirus (HPV) is a sexually transmitted infection of particular interest because of its high prevalence rate and strong causal association with cervical cancer. Two prophylactic vaccines have been developed and different countries have made or will soon make recommendations for the vaccination of girls. Even if there is a consensus to recommend a vaccination before the beginning of sexual activity, there are, however, large discrepancies between countries concerning the perceived usefulness of a catch-up procedure and of boosters. The main objective of this article is to simulate the impact on different vaccination policies upon the mid- and long-term HPV 16/18 age-specific infection rates. METHODS: We developed an epidemiological model based on the susceptible-infective-recovered approach using Swiss data. The mid- and long-term impact of different vaccination scenarios was then compared. RESULTS: The generalization of a catch-up procedure is always beneficial, whatever its extent. Moreover, pending on the length of the protection offered by the vaccine, boosters will also be very useful. CONCLUSIONS: To be really effective, a vaccination campaign against HPV infection should at least include a catch-up to early reach a drop in HPV 16/18 prevalence, and maybe boosters. Otherwise, the protection insured for women in their 20s could be lower than expected, resulting in higher risks to later develop cervical cancer.

Characterization and simulation of a CdTe detector for use in PET

The Voxel Imaging PET (VIP) Path nder project got the 4 year European Research Council FP7 grant in 2010 to prove the feasibility of using CdTe detectors in a novel conceptual design of PET scanner. The work presented in this thesis is a part of the VIP project and consists of, on the one hand, the characterization of a CdTe detector in terms of energy resolution and coincidence time resolution and, on the other hand, the simulation of the setup with the single detector in order to extend the results to the full PET scanner. An energy resolution of 0.98% at 511 keV with a bias voltage of 1000 V/mm has been measured at low temperature T=-8 ºC. The coincidence time distribution of two twin detectors has been found to be as low as 6 ns FWHM for events with energies above 500 keV under the same temperature and bias conditions. The measured energy and time resolution values are compatible with similar ndings available in the literature and prove the excellent potential of CdTe for PET applications. This results have been presented in form of a poster contribution at the IEEE NSS/MIC & RTSD 2011 conference in October 2011 in Valencia and at the iWoRID 2012 conference in July 2012 in Coimbra, Portugal. They have been also submitted for publication to "Journal of Instrumentation (JINST)" in September 2012.

Calculation of Franck-Condon factors including anharmonicity: simulation of the C2 H4+ X̃2B 3u←C2 H4X̃1 Ag band in the photoelectron spectrum of ethylene

Our new simple method for calculating accurate Franck-Condon factors including nondiagonal (i.e., mode-mode) anharmonic coupling is used to simulate the C2H4+X2B 3u←C2H4X̃1 Ag band in the photoelectron spectrum. An improved vibrational basis set truncation algorithm, which permits very efficient computations, is employed. Because the torsional mode is highly anharmonic it is separated from the other modes and treated exactly. All other modes are treated through the second-order perturbation theory. The perturbation-theory corrections are significant and lead to a good agreement with experiment, although the separability assumption for torsion causes the C2 D4 results to be not as good as those for C2 H4. A variational formulation to overcome this circumstance, and deal with large anharmonicities in general, is suggested

Orthotropic active strain models for the numerical simulation of cardiac biomechanics

An active strain formulation for orthotropic constitutive laws arising in cardiac mechanics modeling is introduced and studied. The passive mechanical properties of the tissue are described by the Holzapfel-Ogden relation. In the active strain formulation, the Euler-Lagrange equations for minimizing the total energy are written in terms of active and passive deformation factors, where the active part is assumed to depend, at the cell level, on the electrodynamics and on the specific orientation of the cardiac cells. The well-posedness of the linear system derived from a generic Newton iteration of the original problem is analyzed and different mechanical activation functions are considered. In addition, the active strain formulation is compared with the classical active stress formulation from both numerical and modeling perspectives. Taylor-Hood and MINI finite elements are employed to discretize the mechanical problem. The results of several numerical experiments show that the proposed formulation is mathematically consistent and is able to represent the main key features of the phenomenon, while allowing savings in computational costs.

Prediction of infant drug exposure through breastfeeding: population PK modeling and simulation of fluoxetine

BACKGROUND: Risks of significant infant drug exposurethrough breastmilk are poorly defined for many drugs, and largescalepopulation data are lacking. We used population pharmacokinetics(PK) modeling to predict fluoxetine exposure levels ofinfants via mother's milk in a simulated population of 1000 motherinfantpairs.METHODS: Using our original data on fluoxetine PK of 25breastfeeding women, a population PK model was developed withNONMEM and parameters, including milk concentrations, wereestimated. An exponential distribution model was used to account forindividual variation. Simulation random and distribution-constrainedassignment of doses, dosing time, feeding intervals and milk volumewas conducted to generate 1000 mother-infant pairs with characteristicssuch as the steady-state serum concentrations (Css) and infantdose relative to the maternal weight-adjusted dose (relative infantdose: RID). Full bioavailability and a conservative point estimate of1-month-old infant CYP2D6 activity to be 20% of the adult value(adjusted by weigth) according to a recent study, were assumed forinfant Css calculations.RESULTS: A linear 2-compartment model was selected as thebest model. Derived parameters, including milk-to-plasma ratios(mean: 0.66; SD: 0.34; range, 0 - 1.1) were consistent with the valuesreported in the literature. The estimated RID was below 10% in >95%of infants. The model predicted median infant-mother Css ratio was0.096 (range 0.035 - 0.25); literature reported mean was 0.07 (range0-0.59). Moreover, the predicted incidence of infant-mother Css ratioof >0.2 was less than 1%.CONCLUSION: Our in silico model prediction is consistent withclinical observations, suggesting that substantial systemic fluoxetineexposure in infants through human milk is rare, but further analysisshould include active metabolites. Our approach may be valid forother drugs. [supported by CIHR and Swiss National Science Foundation(SNSF)]

A pseudo-spectral method for the simulation of poro-elastic seismic wave propagation in 2D polar coordinates using domain decomposition

We present a novel numerical approach for the comprehensive, flexible, and accurate simulation of poro-elastic wave propagation in 2D polar coordinates. An important application of this method and its extensions will be the modeling of complex seismic wave phenomena in fluid-filled boreholes, which represents a major, and as of yet largely unresolved, computational problem in exploration geophysics. In view of this, we consider a numerical mesh, which can be arbitrarily heterogeneous, consisting of two or more concentric rings representing the fluid in the center and the surrounding porous medium. The spatial discretization is based on a Chebyshev expansion in the radial direction and a Fourier expansion in the azimuthal direction and a Runge-Kutta integration scheme for the time evolution. A domain decomposition method is used to match the fluid-solid boundary conditions based on the method of characteristics. This multi-domain approach allows for significant reductions of the number of grid points in the azimuthal direction for the inner grid domain and thus for corresponding increases of the time step and enhancements of computational efficiency. The viability and accuracy of the proposed method has been rigorously tested and verified through comparisons with analytical solutions as well as with the results obtained with a corresponding, previously published, and independently bench-marked solution for 2D Cartesian coordinates. Finally, the proposed numerical solution also satisfies the reciprocity theorem, which indicates that the inherent singularity associated with the origin of the polar coordinate system is adequately handled.

Variance reduction methods for simulation of densities on Wiener space

We develop a general error analysis framework for the Monte Carlo simulationof densities for functionals in Wiener space. We also study variancereduction methods with the help of Malliavin derivatives. For this, wegive some general heuristic principles which are applied to diffusionprocesses. A comparison with kernel density estimates is made.

PENELOPE-2008: A Code System for Monte Carlo Simulation of Electron and Photon Transport

The computer code system PENELOPE (version 2008) performs Monte Carlo simulation of coupledelectron-photon transport in arbitrary materials for a wide energy range, from a few hundred eV toabout 1 GeV. Photon transport is simulated by means of the standard, detailed simulation scheme.Electron and positron histories are generated on the basis of a mixed procedure, which combinesdetailed simulation of hard events with condensed simulation of soft interactions. A geometry packagecalled PENGEOM permits the generation of random electron-photon showers in material systemsconsisting of homogeneous bodies limited by quadric surfaces, i.e., planes, spheres, cylinders, etc. Thisreport is intended not only to serve as a manual of the PENELOPE code system, but also to provide theuser with the necessary information to understand the details of the Monte Carlo algorithm.

Direct simulation of interface dynamics: linking capillary pressure, interfacial area and surface energy

We perform direct numerical simulations of drainage by solving Navier- Stokes equations in the pore space and employing the Volume Of Fluid (VOF) method to track the evolution of the fluid-fluid interface. After demonstrating that the method is able to deal with large viscosity contrasts and to model the transition from stable flow to viscous fingering, we focus on the definition of macroscopic capillary pressure. When the fluids are at rest, the difference between inlet and outlet pressures and the difference between the intrinsic phase average pressure coincide with the capillary pressure. However, when the fluids are in motion these quantities are dominated by viscous forces. In this case, only a definition based on the variation of the interfacial energy provides an accurate measure of the macroscopic capillary pressure and allows separating the viscous from the capillary pressure components.

Brownian dynamics simulation of DNA condensation.

DNA condensation observed in vitro with the addition of polyvalent counterions is due to intermolecular attractive forces. We introduce a quantitative model of these forces in a Brownian dynamics simulation in addition to a standard mean-field Poisson-Boltzmann repulsion. The comparison of a theoretical value of the effective diameter calculated from the second virial coefficient in cylindrical geometry with some experimental results allows a quantitative evaluation of the one-parameter attractive potential. We show afterward that with a sufficient concentration of divalent salt (typically approximately 20 mM MgCl(2)), supercoiled DNA adopts a collapsed form where opposing segments of interwound regions present zones of lateral contact. However, under the same conditions the same plasmid without torsional stress does not collapse. The condensed molecules present coexisting open and collapsed plectonemic regions. Furthermore, simulations show that circular DNA in 50% methanol solutions with 20 mM MgCl(2) aggregates without the requirement of torsional energy. This confirms known experimental results. Finally, a simulated DNA molecule confined in a box of variable size also presents some local collapsed zones in 20 mM MgCl(2) above a critical concentration of the DNA. Conformational entropy reduction obtained either by supercoiling or by confinement seems thus to play a crucial role in all forms of condensation of DNA.

Numerical simulation of ambient seismic wavefield modification caused by pore-fluid effects in an oil reservoir

We have modeled numerically the seismic response of a poroelastic inclusion with properties applicable to an oil reservoir that interacts with an ambient wavefield. The model includes wave-induced fluid flow caused by pressure differences between mesoscopic-scale (i.e., in the order of centimeters to meters) heterogeneities. We used a viscoelastic approximation on the macroscopic scale to implement the attenuation and dispersion resulting from this mesoscopic-scale theory in numerical simulations of wave propagation on the kilometer scale. This upscaling method includes finite-element modeling of wave-induced fluid flow to determine effective seismic properties of the poroelastic media, such as attenuation of P- and S-waves. The fitted, equivalent, viscoelastic behavior is implemented in finite-difference wave propagation simulations. With this two-stage process, we model numerically the quasi-poroelastic wave-propagation on the kilometer scale and study the impact of fluid properties and fluid saturation on the modeled seismic amplitudes. In particular, we addressed the question of whether poroelastic effects within an oil reservoir may be a plausible explanation for low-frequency ambient wavefield modifications observed at oil fields in recent years. Our results indicate that ambient wavefield modification is expected to occur for oil reservoirs exhibiting high attenuation. Whether or not such modifications can be detected in surface recordings, however, will depend on acquisition design and noise mitigation processing as well as site-specific conditions, such as the geologic complexity of the subsurface, the nature of the ambient wavefield, and the amount of surface noise.

Measurement and simulation of anisotropy in the Infrared and Raman spectra of beta-FeSi2 single crystals

In this paper we show that the orthorhombic phase of FeSi2 (stable at room temperature) displays a sizable anisotropy in the infrared spectra, with minor effects in the Raman data too. This fact is not trivial at all, since the crystal structure corresponds to a moderate distortion of the fluorite symmetry. Our analysis is carried out on small single crystals grown by flux transport, through polarization-resolved far-infrared reflectivity and Raman measurements. Their interpretation has been obtained by means of the simulated spectra with tight-binding molecular dynamics.