Modelagem do potencial de mercado dos municípios paulistas

Os indicadores de potencial de consumo são medidas indiretas da capacidade de uma região absorver uma determinada categoria de produto. O método de regressão linear simples pode ser utilizado na elaboração de índices simples e robustos que geralmente produzem resultados comparáveis ou superiores aos que podem ser obtidos pela utilização de índices vendidos por empresas de consultoria. Este fato passa despercebido pela maioria dos usuários porque habitualmente não são feitos esforços de comparar os índices com a realidade que estes se propõem a descrever (o que tem uma certa lógica, porque se conhecêssemos a realidade não precisaríamos do índice de potencial). Para estabelecer a metodologia e demonstrar a tese acima, são coletados dados a respeito da área de loja de supermercados dos municípios do Estado de São Paulo; um índice é construído, e em seguida comparado com outros indicadores. Os resultados confirmam a suposição inicial.

análise experimental do efeito da diversificação em carteiras de ações: a relação entre risco e quantidade de ativos sob a ótica da estratégia ingênua

The objective is to analyze the relationship between risk and number of stocks of a portfolio for an individual investor when stocks are chosen by "naive strategy". For this, we carried out an experiment in which individuals select actions to reproduce this relationship. 126 participants were informed that the risk of first choice would be an asset average of all standard deviations of the portfolios consist of a single asset, and the same procedure should be used for portfolios composed of two, three and so on, up to 30 actions . They selected the assets they want in their portfolios without the support of a financial analysis. For comparison we also tested a hypothetical simulation of 126 investors who selected shares the same universe, through a random number generator. Thus, each real participant is compensated for random hypothetical investor facing the same opportunity. Patterns were observed in the portfolios of individual participants, characterizing the curves for the components of the samples. Because these groupings are somewhat arbitrary, it was used a more objective measure of behavior: a simple linear regression for each participant, in order to predict the variance of the portfolio depending on the number of assets. In addition, we conducted a pooled regression on all observations by analyzing cross-section. The result of pattern occurs on average but not for most individuals, many of which effectively "de-diversify" when adding seemingly random bonds. Furthermore, the results are slightly worse using a random number generator. This finding challenges the belief that only a small number of titles is necessary for diversification and shows that there is only applicable to a large sample. The implications are important since many individual investors holding few stocks in their portfolios

Câncer de boca e orofaringe: tendências e análise de sobrevida em Natal (RN)

Introduction: Mouth cancer is classified as having one of the ten highest cancer incidences in the world. In Brazil, the incidence and mortality rates of oral cancer are among the highest in the world. Intraoral cancer (tongue, gum, floor of the mouth, and other non-specified parts of the mouth), the accumulated survival rate after five years is less than 50%. Objectives: Estimate the accumulated survival probability after five years and adjust the Cox regression model for mouth and oropharyngeal cancers, according to age range, sex, morphology, and location, for the city of Natal. Describe the mortality and incidence coefficients of oral and oropharyngeal cancer and their tendencies in the city of Natal, between 1980 and 2001 and between 1997 and 2001, respectively. Methods: Survival data of patients registered between 1997 and 2001 was obtained from the Population-based Cancer Record of Natal. Differences between the survival curves were tested using the log-rank test. The Cox proportional risk model was used to estimate risk ratios. The simple linear regression model was used for tendency analyses of the mortality and incidence coefficients. Results: The probability after five years was 22.9%. The patients with undifferentiated malignant neoplasia were 4.7 times more at risk of dying than those with epidermoid carcinoma, whereas the patients with oropharyngeal cancer had 2.0 times more at risk of dying than those with mouth cancer. The mouth cancer mortality and incidence coefficients for Natal were 4.3 and 2.9 per 100 000 inhabitants, respectively. The oropharyngeal cancer mortality and incidence coefficients were, respectively, 1.1 and 0.7 per 100 000 87 inhabitants. Conclusions: A low survival rate after five years was identified. Patients with oropharyngeal cancer had a greater risk of dying, independent of the factors considered in this study. Also independent of other factors, undifferentiated malignant neoplasia posed a greater risk of death. The magnitudes of the incidence coefficients found are not considered elevated, whereas the magnitudes of the mortality coefficients are high

Estimativa da área foliar de Ageratum conyzoides usando dimensões lineares do limbo foliar

The aim of this research was to obtain a mathematical equation to estimate the leaf area of Ageratum conyzoides based on linear measures of its leaf blade. Correlation studies were done using real leaf area (Sf), leaf length (C) and the maximum leaf width (L), in about 200 leaf blades. The evaluated statistic models were: linear Y = a + bx; simple linear Y = bx; geometric Y = ax(b); and exponential Y = ab(x). The evaluated linear, exponential and geometric models can be used in the billygoat weed leaf area estimation. In the practical sense, the simple linear regression model is suggested using the C*L multiplication product and taking the linear coefficient equal to zero, because it showed weak-alteration on sum of squares error and satisfactory residual analysis. Thus, an estimate of A conyzoides leaf area can be obtained using the equation Sf = 0.6789*(C*L), with a determination coefficient of 0.8630.

Estimativa da área foliar de Sida cordifolia e Sida rhombifolia usando dimensões lineares do limbo foliar

A estimativa da área foliar pode auxiliar na compreensão de relações de interferência entre plantas daninhas e cultivadas. Com o objetivo de obter uma equação que, por meio de parâmetros lineares dimensionais das folhas, permita a estimativa da área foliar de Sida cordifolia e Sida rhombifolia, estudaram-se as correlações entre área foliar real (Af) e parâmetros dimensionais do limbo foliar, como o comprimento (C) ao longo da nervura principal e a largura máxima (L) perpendicular à nervura principal. Foram analisados 200 limbos foliares de cada espécie, coletados em diferentes agroecossistemas na Universidade Estadual Paulista, campus de Jaboticabal. Os modelos estatísticos utilizados foram linear: Y = a + bx; linear simples: Y = bx; geométrico: Y = ax b; e exponencial: Y = ab x. Todos os modelos analisados podem ser empregados para estimação da área foliar de S. cordifolia e S. rhombifolia. Sugere-se optar pela equação linear simples, envolvendo o produto C*L, considerando-se o coeficiente linear igual a zero, em função da praticidade desta. Desse modo, a estimativa da área foliar de S. cordifolia pode ser obtida pela fórmula Af = 0,7878*(C*L), com coeficiente de determinação de 0,9307, enquanto para S. rhombifolia a estimativa da área foliar pode ser obtida pela fórmula Af = 0,6423*(C*L), com coeficiente de determinação de 0,9711.

Reference evapotranspiration estimation inside greenhouses

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Estimativa da radiação solar global diária em função do potencial de energia solar na superfície do solo

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Sono e síndrome da fragilidade em idosos residentes em instituições de longa permanência

Introduction: The aging process causes quantitative and qualitative changes in sleeping. Such changes affects more than half of the adults above 65 years old, that live in the community and 70% of the institutionalized, a great negative impact in their quality of life. One of the pathological displays of aging, that share some characteristics with sleeping disorders and predict similar results, is the Frailty Syndrome, that characterize the most weakened and vulnerable elderly. The way sleeping disorders play a role in the frailty pathogeneses remains uncertain. Objective: Evaluate the relation between the sleeping and the frailty syndrome on institutionalized elderly. Methodology: A transversal study was performed with 69 elderly in institutions in the city of João Pessoa PB. Were used the Pittsburgh Sleeping Quality Index and actigraphy to subjective and objective variables, respectively, and questionnaires and specific tests to frailty phenotype variant (Fried Frailty Criteria). In the statistic analysis were used the Pearson correlation test, Chi Square and One-way ANOVA test, with Tukey-Krammer posttest. Subsequently, a Simple Linear Regression model was built. On every statistical analysis were considered a confidence interval of 95% and a p < 0,05. Results: The sample was characterized by the prevalence of the frail (49,3%), women (62,3%), single (50,7%) and 77,52 (±7,82).The frail elderly obtained the worst sleeping quality 10,37 (±4,31) (f = 4,15, p = 0,02), when compared with the non-frail. The sleep latency influenced more the frailty (R2 = 0,13, β standard = 1,76, β = 0,41, p = 0,001). Weren t found differences between the standard resting-activity variable and the frailty phenotype categories. Conclusion: Sleeping alterations, including bad sleeping quality, prolonged sleep latency, low sleep efficiency and day drowsiness, influenced the frailty in institutionalized elderly

Correlação entre os parâmetros do cortisol salivar e o fenótipo de fragilidade em idosos institucionalizados

Introduction: The Frailty Syndrome is characterized by the decrease of energy reserve and the reduced resistance to stressors. Studies indicate that the neuroendocrine markers can be related to the appearance of this syndrome. The main endocrine answer to stress is the increase of cortisol levels. Objective: To analyze the correlation between the frailty syndrome the salivary cortisol in elderly residing in nursing homes. Method: A traversal study was accomplished, in João Pessoa city, PB, with a sample composed by 69 institutionalized elderly. The collected data refer to the frailty phenotype (weight loss, exhaustion, slowness, weakness, and lower level of physical activity) and to salivary cortisol parameters (first measure - 6-7h; second measure - 11-12h; third measure - 16-17h). In the statistical analysis the Pearson s correlation test was used, Chi square Test and Anova and Simple Linear Regression analyses. Results: The sample was composed by 37.7% of men and 62.3% of women, with age average of 77.52 (±7.82). There was a percentile of 45.8% frail elderly. The frail elderly obtained higher cortisol values in the third measure (p=0.04) and the frailty load was significantly associated to the first measure (r=0.25, p=0.04). The simple linear regression analysis presented a determination rate (R2=0.05) between frailty load and first cortisol measure. Conclusion: The largest cortisol values in the morning and before sleeping among the frail elderly supply indications that can have a relationship of cortisol increase levels and the frailty presence in elderly from nursing homes.

Elaboração e validação de escala diagramática para quantificação da mancha alvo em folhas de acerola

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

The safe motherhood referral system to reduce cesarean sections and perinatal mortality - a cross-sectional study [1995-2006]

Background: In 2000, the eight Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) set targets for reducing child mortality and improving maternal health by 2015.Objective: To evaluate the results of a new education and referral system for antenatal/intrapartum care as a strategy to reduce the rates of Cesarean sections (C-sections) and maternal/perinatal mortality.Methods: Design: Cross-sectional study. Setting: Department of Gynecology and Obstetrics, Botucatu Medical School, São Paulo State University/UNESP, Brazil. Population: 27,387 delivering women and 27,827 offspring. Data collection: maternal and perinatal data between 1995 and 2006 at the major level III and level II hospitals in Botucatu, Brazil following initiation of a safe motherhood education and referral system. Main outcome measures: Yearly rates of C-sections, maternal (/100,000 LB) and perinatal (/1000 births) mortality rates at both hospitals. Data analysis: Simple linear regression models were adjusted to estimate the referral system's annual effects on the total number of deliveries, C-section and perinatal mortality ratios in the two hospitals. The linear regression were assessed by residual analysis (Shapiro-Wilk test) and the influence of possible conflicting observations was evaluated by a diagnostic test (Leverage), with p < 0.05.Results: Over the time period evaluated, the overall C-section rate was 37.3%, there were 30 maternal deaths (maternal mortality ratio = 109.5/100,000 LB) and 660 perinatal deaths (perinatal mortality rate = 23.7/1000 births). The C-section rate decreased from 46.5% to 23.4% at the level II hospital while remaining unchanged at the level III hospital. The perinatal mortality rate decreased from 9.71 to 1.66/1000 births and from 60.8 to 39.6/1000 births at the level II and level III hospital, respectively. Maternal mortality ratios were 16.3/100,000 LB and 185.1/100,000 LB at the level II and level III hospitals. There was a shift from direct to indirect causes of maternal mortality.Conclusions: This safe motherhood referral system was a good strategy in reducing perinatal mortality and direct causes of maternal mortality and decreasing the overall rate of C-sections.

Prognostic value of canine frozen-thawed semen parameters on in vitro sperm-oocyte interactions

Combining the data from conventional semen analysis with oocyte penetration assays should improve the assessment of the fertilizing ability of a semen sample. Thus, the objective of the present study was to evaluate the prognostic value of various semen parameters on the in vitro interactions between frozen-thawed canine sperm and homologous oocytes. Ten ejaculates from five stud dogs (two ejaculates/dog) were collected by digital manipulation. Semen samples were evaluated, extended in Tris-egg yolk-glycerol, frozen and stored in liquid nitrogen, and thawed several weeks later. Samples were evaluated for motility and sperm populations by computer-aided semen analysis (CASA), plasma membrane integrity (carboxy-fluorescein diacetate and propidium iodide), and sperm morphology (Bengal Rose). Thawed spermatozoa were also incubated with homologous oocytes for 18 h in an atmosphere of 5% CO2 and 95% air at 38 degrees C and sperm-oocyte interactions were evaluated. Simple linear regression models were calculated, with sperm parameters as independent variables and sperm-oocyte interactions as the dependent variable. There were significant associations between: percentage of oocytes bound to spermatozoa and beat cross frequency (BCF; R-2 = 63%); percentage of oocytes that interacted with spermatozoa and BCF (R-2 = 73%); and number of penetrated spermatozoa and velocity average pathway (VAP; R-2 = 64%) and velocity straight line (VSL; R-2 = 64%). Although plasma membrane integrity and sperm morphology had little prognostic value for in vitro interactions between canine frozen-thawed sperm and homologous oocytes, some motility patterns (evaluated by CASA) were predictive of in vitro sperm-oocyte interactions. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Recursos pesqueiros oriundos da pesca artesanal no reservatório de jurumirim, rio Paranapanema, Alto Paraná, Brasil

The aim of this paper was to evaluate the artisanal fisheries in the village of fishermen of Bairro da Ponte, Jurumirim reservoir. Data were collected using production forms which were filled daily by a data collector, in 2005 and 2006. The fishery yield was estimated at 15.7 kg ha(-1) year(-1), the average yield was 12.5 t year(-1) and catch per unit effort (CPUE) was 10.5 kg fisherman(-1) day(-1). We recorded 26 species of landed fish in this activity, being the "traira" (Hoplias malabaricus) the most landed fish in terms of biomass with 6,158.5 kg, representing 24.5%, of the total landed. Seasonally, the CPUE ranged from 14.5 kg fisherman(-1) day(-1) in summer/2005 to 9.0 kg fisherman(-1) day(-1) in spring/2006. The average CPUE by type of fish also showed a marked seasonality. In summer of 2005 and 2006, "curimbata" was the most landed fish, with CPUE kg fisherman(-1) day(-1) of 6.9 and 6.2, respectively. The "piavas" were the most landed fish in autumn with CPUE of 2.4 (year 2005) and 2.3 (year 2006) kg fisherman(-1) day(-1), and "traira" in winter with CPUE ranging from 3.0 to 4.0 kg fishrman(-1) day(-1), in 2005 and 2006, respectively. The mathematical modeling of simple linear regression indicated positive relationships between the monthly fish production and the number of boats in activity and of fishing trips. The study concluded that fishing is sustained only by native species; with marked seasonality for catching fish and that the area of fishing examined of the Jurumirim reservoir is among the most productive areas of the Upper Parana basin.

Bulk density and relationship air/water of horticultural substrate

Alterações na densidade do substrato durante o cultivo das plantas modificam suas propriedades físicas. O trabalho teve como objetivos caracterizar fisicamente dois substratos hortícolas e avaliar o efeito da densidade na relação ar/água dos mesmos, elaborando funções matemáticas que permitam estimar tal relação a partir da densidade do substrato. Para tanto, determinou-se a distribuição do tamanho das partículas, a densidade e a curva de retenção de água. Procedeu-se o acondicionamento dos substratos em três valores de densidade: 10 (D1), 20 (D2) e 30% (D3) maior que a densidade (D) determinada na fase de caracterização. Partindo das amostras com diferentes densidades, determinou-se a curva de retenção de água dos substratos. A influência do aumento da densidade do substrato na porosidade total (PT), no espaço de aeração (EA), na água disponível (AD), na água facilmente disponível (AFD), na água tamponante (AT) e na água remanescente (AR) foi avaliada pela análise de regressão linear simples e análise polinomial. A composição granulométrica e a curva de retenção de água foram significativamente diferentes para os dois substratos. O aumento da densidade diminuiu a PT e o EA e aumentou a AT e AR. Os maiores valores de AD e AFD foram observados para D1. Foram obtidas equações de regressão que podem auxiliar na escolha da relação ar/água mais adequada para cada condição.

Um modelo matemático para estudo de otimização do consumo de energia elétrica

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)