Validation of the portuguese simple measure of impact of lupus erythematosus in youngsters (SMILEY) in Brazil

Background and Objective: Simple Measure of the Impact of Lupus Erythematosus in Youngsters (SMILEY) is a health-related quality of life (HRQOL) assessment tool for pediatric systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), which has been translated into Portuguese for Brazil. We are reporting preliminary data on cross-cultural validation and reliability of SMILEY in Portuguese (Brazil). Methods: In this multi-center cross-sectional study, Brazilian children and adolescents 5-18 years of age with SLE and parents participated. Children and parents completed child and parent reports of Portuguese SMILEY and Portuguese Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory (PedsQLTM) Generic and Rheumatology modules. Parents also completed the Childhood Health Assessment Questionnaire (CHAQ). Physicians completed the SLE disease activity index (SLEDAI), Physician's Global Assessment of disease activity (PGA) and Systemic Lupus Erythematosus International Collaborating Clinics ACR Damage Index (SDI). Results: 99 subjects (84 girls) were enrolled; 93 children and 97 parents filled out the SMILEY scale. Subjects found SMILEY relevant and easy to understand and completed SMILEY in 5-15 minutes. Brazilian SMILEY was found to have good psychometric properties (validity and reliability), and the child-parent agreement was moderate. Conclusion: SMILEY may eventually be used routinely as a research/clinical tool in Brazil. It may be also adapted for other Portuguese-speaking nations offering critical information regarding the effect of SLE on HRQOL for children with SLE. © The Author(s), 2012.

Information-entropic measure of energy-degenerate kinks in two-field models

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Fuzzy rule-based system for evaluation of uncertainty transaction in cassava chain

A fuzzy ruled-based system was developed in this study and resulted in an index indicating the level of uncertainty related to commercial transactions between cassava growers and their dealers. The fuzzy system was developed based on Transaction Cost Economics approach. The fuzzy system was developed from input variables regarding information sharing between grower and dealer on “Demand/purchase Forecasting”, “Production Forecasting” and “Production Innovation”. The output variable is the level of uncertainty regarding the transaction between seller and buyer agent, which may serve as a system for detecting inefficiencies. Evidences from 27 cassava growers registered in the Regional Development Offices of Tupa and Assis, São Paulo, Brazil, and 48 of their dealers supported the development of the system. The mathematical model indicated that 55% of the growers present a Very High level of uncertainty, 33% present Medium or High. The others present Low or Very Low level of uncertainty. From the model, simulations of external interferences can be implemented in order to improve the degree of uncertainty and, thus, lower transaction costs.

Infant Mortality as a Potential Measure of Community Health in Urban Growth

This document is one of a series which contains the results of research carried out during a 1969 Summer Study of Urban Decentralization at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, sponsored by the Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission. The summary of the Summer Study is contained in "An Introduction to Urban Decentralization Research," ORNL-HUD-3.

Speech Graphs Provide a Quantitative Measure of Thought Disorder in Psychosis

Background: Psychosis has various causes, including mania and schizophrenia. Since the differential diagnosis of psychosis is exclusively based on subjective assessments of oral interviews with patients, an objective quantification of the speech disturbances that characterize mania and schizophrenia is in order. In principle, such quantification could be achieved by the analysis of speech graphs. A graph represents a network with nodes connected by edges; in speech graphs, nodes correspond to words and edges correspond to semantic and grammatical relationships. Methodology/Principal Findings: To quantify speech differences related to psychosis, interviews with schizophrenics, manics and normal subjects were recorded and represented as graphs. Manics scored significantly higher than schizophrenics in ten graph measures. Psychopathological symptoms such as logorrhea, poor speech, and flight of thoughts were grasped by the analysis even when verbosity differences were discounted. Binary classifiers based on speech graph measures sorted schizophrenics from manics with up to 93.8% of sensitivity and 93.7% of specificity. In contrast, sorting based on the scores of two standard psychiatric scales (BPRS and PANSS) reached only 62.5% of sensitivity and specificity. Conclusions/Significance: The results demonstrate that alterations of the thought process manifested in the speech of psychotic patients can be objectively measured using graph-theoretical tools, developed to capture specific features of the normal and dysfunctional flow of thought, such as divergence and recurrence. The quantitative analysis of speech graphs is not redundant with standard psychometric scales but rather complementary, as it yields a very accurate sorting of schizophrenics and manics. Overall, the results point to automated psychiatric diagnosis based not on what is said, but on how it is said.

Measure of Global Specialization and Spatial Clustering for the Identification of "Specialized" Agglomeration

The intensity of regional specialization in specific activities, and conversely, the level of industrial concentration in specific locations, has been used as a complementary evidence for the existence and significance of externalities. Additionally, economists have mainly focused the debate on disentangling the sources of specialization and concentration processes according to three vectors: natural advantages, internal, and external scale economies. The arbitrariness of partitions plays a key role in capturing these effects, while the selection of the partition would have to reflect the actual characteristics of the economy. Thus, the identification of spatial boundaries to measure specialization becomes critical, since most likely the model will be adapted to different scales of distance, and be influenced by different types of externalities or economies of agglomeration, which are based on the mechanisms of interaction with particular requirements of spatial proximity. This work is based on the analysis of the spatial aspect of economic specialization supported by the manufacturing industry case. The main objective is to propose, for discrete and continuous space: i) a measure of global specialization; ii) a local disaggregation of the global measure; and iii) a spatial clustering method for the identification of specialized agglomerations.

Analysis and developments of uncertainty processors for real time flood forecasting

The hydrologic risk (and the hydro-geologic one, closely related to it) is, and has always been, a very relevant issue, due to the severe consequences that may be provoked by a flooding or by waters in general in terms of human and economic losses. Floods are natural phenomena, often catastrophic, and cannot be avoided, but their damages can be reduced if they are predicted sufficiently in advance. For this reason, the flood forecasting plays an essential role in the hydro-geological and hydrological risk prevention. Thanks to the development of sophisticated meteorological, hydrologic and hydraulic models, in recent decades the flood forecasting has made a significant progress, nonetheless, models are imperfect, which means that we are still left with a residual uncertainty on what will actually happen. In this thesis, this type of uncertainty is what will be discussed and analyzed. In operational problems, it is possible to affirm that the ultimate aim of forecasting systems is not to reproduce the river behavior, but this is only a means through which reducing the uncertainty associated to what will happen as a consequence of a precipitation event. In other words, the main objective is to assess whether or not preventive interventions should be adopted and which operational strategy may represent the best option. The main problem for a decision maker is to interpret model results and translate them into an effective intervention strategy. To make this possible, it is necessary to clearly define what is meant by uncertainty, since in the literature confusion is often made on this issue. Therefore, the first objective of this thesis is to clarify this concept, starting with a key question: should be the choice of the intervention strategy to adopt based on the evaluation of the model prediction based on its ability to represent the reality or on the evaluation of what actually will happen on the basis of the information given by the model forecast? Once the previous idea is made unambiguous, the other main concern of this work is to develope a tool that can provide an effective decision support, making possible doing objective and realistic risk evaluations. In particular, such tool should be able to provide an uncertainty assessment as accurate as possible. This means primarily three things: it must be able to correctly combine all the available deterministic forecasts, it must assess the probability distribution of the predicted quantity and it must quantify the flooding probability. Furthermore, given that the time to implement prevention strategies is often limited, the flooding probability will have to be linked to the time of occurrence. For this reason, it is necessary to quantify the flooding probability within a horizon time related to that required to implement the intervention strategy and it is also necessary to assess the probability of the flooding time.

The Impact of Uncertainty in the AIDS Incubation Period on Reconstructions of the HIV Epidemic

Backcalculation is the primary method used to reconstruct past human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection rates, to estimate current prevalence of HIV infection, and to project future incidence of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). The method is very sensitive to uncertainty about the incubation period. We estimate incubation distributions from three sets of cohort data and find that the estimates for the cohorts are substantially different. Backcalculations employing the different estimates produce equally good fits to reported AIDS counts but quite different estimates of cumulative infections. These results suggest that the incubation distribution is likely to differ for different populations and that the differences are large enough to have a big impact on the resulting estimates of HIV infection rates. This seriously limits the usefulness of backcalculation for populations (such as intravenous drug users, heterosexuals, and women) that lack precise information on incubation times.