Longitudinal outcomes of high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) infections as competing-risks events following cervical HPV test at baseline visit in the *NIS-LAMS** cohort

Background: The complex natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV) infections following a single HPV test can be modeled as competing-risks events (i.e., no-, transient- or persistent infection) in a longitudinal setting. The covariates associated with these compet ng events have not been previously assessed using competing-risks regression models. Objectives: To gain further insights in the outcomes of cervical HPV infections, we used univariate- and multivariate competing-risks regression models to assess the covariaies associated with these competing events. Study Design and Methods: Covariates associated with three competing outcomes (no-, transient- or persistent HR-HPV infection) were analysed in a sub-cohort of 1,865 women prospectively followed-up in the NIS (n = 3,187) and LAMS Study (n = 12,114). Results: In multivariate competing-risks models (with two other outcomes as competing events), permanently HR-HPV negative outcome was significantly predicted only by the clearance of ASCUS+Pap during FU, while three independent covariates predicted transient HR-HPV infections: i) number of recent (< 12 months) sexual partners (risk increased), ii) previous Pap screening history (protective), and history of previous CIN (increased risk). The two most powerful predictors of persistent HR-HPV infections were persistent ASCUS+Pap (risk increased), and previous Pap screening history (protective). In pair-wise comparisons, number of recent sexual partners and previous CIN history increase the probability of transient HR-HPV infection against the HR-HPV negative competing event, while previous Pap screening history is protective. Persistent ASCUS+Pap during FU and no previous Pap screening history are significantly associated with the persistent HR-HPV outcome (compared both with i) always negative, and ii) transient events), whereas multiparity is protective. Conclusions: Different covariates are associated with the three main outcomes of cervical HPV infections. The most significant covariates of each competing events are probably distinct enough to enable constructing of a risk-profile for each main outcome.

Criminal career-related factors among female robbers in the State of Sao Paulo, Brazil, and a presumed 'revolving-door' situation

Introduction: Risk-taking behaviors, family criminality, poverty, and poor parenting have been frequently associated with an earlier onset of criminal activities and a longer criminal career among male convicts. Objective: This study aims to identify factors related to the onset and recurrence of criminal behavior among female robbers in the State of Sao Paulo - Brazil. Method: It was a cross-sectional study carried out inside a feminine penitentiary in Sao Paulo. From June 2006 to June 2010, 175 inmates convicted only for robbery were recruited to be evaluated about family antecedents of criminal conviction, alcohol and drug misuse, impulsiveness, depressive symptoms, and psychosocial features. Results: Having family antecedents of criminal conviction consistently predicted an earlier onset of criminal activities and a longer criminal career among female robbers. Drug use in youth and the severity of drug misuse were significantly related to the initiation and recurrence of criminal behavior, respectively. Discussion: Prisons must systematically screen detainees and provide treatments for those with health problems in general. Children of inmates should obtain help to modify the negative consequences of their parents' incarceration in order to mitigate the negative consequences of pursuing this 'static' factor.

Police Interviews with Victims and Suspects of Violent and Sexual Crimes : Interviewee's experiences and interview outcomes

The police interview is one of the most important investigative tools that law enforcement has close at hand, and police interview methods have changed during the twentieth century. A good police interview is conducted in the frame of the law, is governed by the interview goal, and is influenced by facilitating factors that may affect the elicited report. The present doctoral dissertation focuses on police interviews in cases of very serious crimes of violence and sexual offences. Results reveal crime victims’ and perpetrators’ experiences of being interviewed and police officers’ attitudes towards conducting interviews related to traumatizing crimes. Study 1 revealed that when police officers interviewed murderers and sexual offenders, the interviewees perceived attitudes characterized by either dominance or humanity. Police interviews marked by dominance and suspects’ responses of anxiety were mainly associated with a higher proportion of denials, whereas an approach marked by humanity, and responses of being respected were significantly associated with admissions. In line with Study 1, the victims of rape and aggravated assault in Study 2 also revealed the experience of two police interview styles, where an interviewing style marked by dominance and responses of anxiety was significantly associated with crime victims’ omissions of information. Moreover, a humanitarian interviewing style, and crime victims’ feelings of being respected and co-operative, was significantly related to crime victims providing all information from painful events. Special squad police officers’ attitudes towards interviewing crime victims, in Study 3, also showed a humanitarian approach and two dominant approaches, one affective and the other refusing. The attitude towards interviewing suspects of crimes in focus revealed humanitarian and dominant interviewing attitudes, and an approach marked by kindness. The present thesis shows that, during their entire career, an overwhelming majority of the special squad police officers have experienced stressful events during patrol as well as investigative duty. Results show that symptoms from stressful event exposures and coping mechanisms are associated with negative attitudes towards interviewing suspects and supportive attitudes towards crime victim interviews. Thus, experiences from stressful exposures may automatically activate ego-defensive functions that automatically generate dominant attitudes. Moreover, it is important to offer police officers who have been exposed to stressful events the opportunity to work through their experiences, for example, through debriefing procedures. After debriefings, police officers are better prepared to meet crime victims and suspects and, through conscious closed-loop processes, to conduct police interviews without awaking ego-defensive functions.

Preclinical disability as a risk factor for falls in community-dwelling older adults

BACKGROUND: Falls are common and serious problems in older adults. The goal of this study was to examine whether preclinical disability predicts incident falls in a European population of community-dwelling older adults. METHODS: Secondary data analysis was performed on a population-based longitudinal study of 1644 community-dwelling older adults living in London, U.K.; Hamburg, Germany; Solothurn, Switzerland. Data were collected at baseline and 1-year follow-up using a self-administered multidimensional health risk appraisal questionnaire, including validated questions on falls, mobility disability status (high function, preclinical disability, task difficulty), and demographic and health-related characteristics. Associations were evaluated using bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. RESULTS: Overall incidence of falls was 24%, and increased by worsening mobility disability status: high function (17%), preclinical disability (32%), task difficulty (40%), test-of-trend p <.003. In multivariate analysis adjusting for other fall risk factors, preclinical disability (odds ratio [OR] = 1.7, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.1-2.5), task difficulty (OR = 1.7, 95% CI, 1.1-2.6) and history of falls (OR = 4.7, 95% CI, 3.5-6.3) were the strongest significant predictors of falls. In stratified multivariate analyses, preclinical disability equally predicted falls in participants with (OR = 1.7, 95% CI, 1.0-3.0) and without history of falls (OR = 1.8, 95% CI, 1.1-3.0). CONCLUSIONS: This study provides longitudinal evidence that self-reported preclinical disability predicts incident falls at 1-year follow-up independent of other self-reported fall risk factors. Multidimensional geriatric assessment that includes preclinical disability may provide a unique early warning system as well as potential targets for intervention.

Social Factors Associated with Readiness for Sexual Activity in Adolescents: A Population-Based Cohort Study

Various factors are associated with sexual activity in adolescence and it is important to identify those that promote healthy and adaptive romantic and sexual development. The objectives of this study were to describe rates of early sexual intercourse (before 16 years) and sexual readiness in adolescence and to assess the extent to which these were social patterned. We prospectively studied nearly 5,000 15-year-olds from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, a UK birth cohort. Between 2006 and 2008, female and male participants answered a computer assisted interview about romantic and sexual behaviors in the last year. Predictors of sexual intercourse and readiness for sexual intercourse were examined across a range of sociodemographic measures. Overall, 17.7 % (95 % CI 16.7 %, 18.9 %) of participants reported having had sexual intercourse in the last year, with more girls than boys reporting sexual experience (risk ratio 1.30, 95 % CI 1.15, 1.47). Of these, one-third of both male and female were classed as unready because they were unwilling, lacking in autonomy, felt regret or had not used contraception. There was strong evidence of social patterning for sexual activity with higher rates for young people from poorer homes, with lower social class, and with younger, less educated mothers. In contrast, among 860 young people who had had sexual intercourse, there was no clear evidence of associations between social factors and sexual readiness. The lack of social patterning in sexual readiness supports the provision of comprehensive education to develop life skills for adolescents across all social groups.

Risk factors for depressed mood amongst a community dwelling older age population in England: cross-sectional survey data from the PRO-AGE study.

BACKGROUND The Quality and Outcomes Framework in the United Kingdom (UK) National Health Service previously highlighted case finding of depression amongst patients with diabetes or coronary heart disease. However, depression in older people remains under-recognized. Comprehensive data for analyses of the association of depression in older age with other health and functional measures, and demographic factors from community populations within England, are lacking. METHODS Secondary analyses of cross-sectional baseline survey data from the England arm of a randomised controlled trial of health risk appraisal for older people in Europe; PRO-AGE study. Data from 1085 community-dwelling non-disabled people aged 65 years or more from three group practices in suburban London contributed to this study. Depressed mood was ascertained from the 5-item Mental Health Inventory Screening test. Exploratory multivariable logistic regression was used to identify the strongest associations of depressed mood with a previous diagnosis of a specified physical/mental health condition, health and functional measures, and demographic factors. RESULTS Depressed mood occurred in 14% (155/1085) of participants. A previous diagnoses of depression (OR 3.39; P < 0.001) and poor vision as determined from a Visual Function Questionnaire (OR 2.37; P = 0.001) were amongst the strongest factors associated with depressed mood that were independent of functional impairment, other co-morbidities, and demographic factors. A subgroup analyses on those without a previous diagnosis of depression also indicated that within this group, poor vision (OR 2.51; P = 0.002) was amongst the strongest independent factors associated with depressed mood. CONCLUSIONS Previous case-finding strategies in primary care focussed on heart disease and diabetes but health-related conditions other than coronary heart disease and diabetes are also associated with an increased risk for depression. Complex issues of multi-morbidity occur within aging populations. 'Risk' factors that appeared stronger than those, such as, diabetes and coronary heart disease that until recently prompted for screening in the UK due to the QOF, were identified, and independent of other morbidities associated with depressed mood. From the health and functional factors investigated, amongst the strongest factors associated with depressed mood was poor vision. Consideration to case finding for depressed mood among older people with visual impairment might be justified.

Prevalence of HIV risk-related behaviors among undocumented Central American immigrant women in Houston, Texas, 2010

The primary aim of this dissertation research is to provide epidemiological data on HIV risk-related behaviors among undocumented Central American immigrant women living in Houston, Texas. Between February and May 2010, we used respondent driven sampling (RDS) to recruit 230 Guatemalan, Honduran, and El Salvadoran women, ages 18 to 50 years, living in Houston without a valid United States visa or residency papers. RDS is a probability-based sampling method that utilizes social networks to access members of hidden populations that lack a sampling frame. Participants completed an interview regarding their demographics, access to and utilization of healthcare services, HIV testing, and sexual behaviors. Data from this study were used 1) to describe the prevalence of sexual HIV risk-related behaviors among undocumented Central American immigrant women, comparing those who recently immigrated to the U.S. (within the past five years) to those with more established residency (of over five years); 2) to describe the prevalence of lifetime HIV testing and evaluate its associated factors in this target population; and 3) to describe the effectiveness of RDS to access members of this target population. ^ As described in Paper 1, there was a generally low prevalence of individual HIV risk-related behaviors (i.e., multiple, concurrent, convenience, and casual sexual partnerships) among the undocumented Central American immigrant women in this study. However, there was evidence of HIV risk due to unprotected sex with male partners who have concurrent sexual partnerships. We identified recent immigrants as the subpopulation at greatest risk, as they were significantly more likely than established immigrants to have multiple and/or concurrent sexual partners. As described in Paper 2, the lifetime prevalence of HIV testing was almost 70%. After adjusting for age, number of years living in the U.S., income security, and resource barriers, lifetime HIV testing was significantly associated with being from Honduras, having more than a sixth grade education, having a regular healthcare provider, and having knowledge of available healthcare resources. Finally, as described in Paper 3, RDS was an effective method for obtaining a diverse sample of Central American immigrant women in Houston. ^ This project is the first to use RDS to conduct an HIV behavioral survey among undocumented Central American immigrant women. Our results will inform the design of future research studies and the implementation of HIV prevention activities among undocumented Central American immigrants in the U.S.^

HIV prevalence and contextual risk-factors among injection drug users in Harris County, Texas

Injection drug use is the third most frequent risk factor for new HIV infections in the United States. A dual mode of exposure: unsafe drug using practices and risky sexual behaviors underlies injection drug users' (IDUs) risk for HIV infection. This research study aims to characterize patterns of drug use and sexual behaviors and to examine the social contexts associated with risk behaviors among a sample of injection drug users. ^ This cross-sectional study includes 523 eligible injection drug users from Houston, Texas, recruited into the 2009 National HIV Behavioral Surveillance project. Three separate set of analyses were carried out. First, using latent class analysis (LCA) and maximum likelihood we identified classes of behavior describing levels of HIV risk, from nine drug and sexual behaviors. Second, eight separate multivariable regression models were built to examine the odds of reporting a given risk behavior. We constructed the most parsimonious multivariable model using a manual backward stepwise process. Third, we examined whether HIV serostatus knowledge (self-reported positive, negative, or unknown serostatus) is associated with drug use and sexual HIV risk behaviors. ^ Participants were mostly male, older, and non-Hispanic Black. Forty-two percent of our sample had behaviors putting them at high risk, 25% at moderate risk, and 33% at low risk for HIV infection. Individuals in the High-risk group had the highest probability of risky behaviors, categorized as almost always sharing needles (0.93), seldom using condoms (0.10), reporting recent exchange sex partners (0.90), and practicing anal sex (0.34). We observed that unsafe injecting practices were associated with high risk sexual behaviors. IDUs who shared needles had higher odds of having anal sex (OR=2.89, 95%CI: 1.69-4.92) and unprotected sex (OR=2.66, 95%CI: 1.38-5.10) at last sex. Additionally, homelessness was associated with needle sharing (OR=2.24, 95% CI: 1.34-3.76) and cocaine use was associated with multiple sex partners (OR=1.82, 95% CI: 1.07-3.11). Furthermore, twenty-one percent of the sample was unaware of their HIV serostatus. The three groups were not different from each other in terms of drug-use behaviors: always using a new sterile needle, or in sharing needles or drug preparation equipment. However, IDUs unaware of their HIV serostatus were 33% more likely to report having more than three sexual partners in the past 12 months; 45% more likely to report to have unprotected sex and 85% more likely to use drug and or alcohol during or before at last sex compared to HIV-positive IDUs. ^ This analysis underscores the merit of LCA approach to empirically categorize injection drug users into distinct classes and identify their risk pattern using multiple indicators and our results show considerable overlap of high risk sexual and drug use behaviors among the high-risk class members. The observed clustering pattern of drug and sexual risk behavior among this population confirms that injection drug users do not represent a homogeneous population in terms of HIV risk. These findings will help develop tailored prevention programs.^

Sex offender risk assessment and management in Ireland

This research examined sex offender risk assessment and management in Ireland. It focused on the statutory agencies with primary responsibility (Garda Síochána and the Probation Service). The goal was to document the historical, contextual and current systems, in addition to identifying areas of concern/improvements. The research was a mixed-methods approach. Eight studies were conducted. This incorporated documentary reviews of four Commission to Inquire Reports, qualitative interviews/focus groups with Garda staff, Probation Service staff, statutory agencies, community stakeholders, various Non-Governmental Organisations (NGOs) and sex offenders. Quantitative questionnaires were also administered to Garda staff. In all over 70 interviews were conducted and questionnaires were forwarded to 270 Garda members. The overall findings are: •Sex offender management in Ireland has become formal only since 2001. Knowledge, skills and expertise is in its infancy and is still evolving. •Mixed reviews and questions regarding fitness for purpose of currently used risk assessments tools were noted. •The Sex Offender Act 2001 requires additional elements to ensure safe sex offender monitoring and public protection. A judicial review of the Sex Offender Act 2001 was recommended by many respondents. •Interagency working under SORAM was hugely welcomed. The sharing of information has been welcomed by managing agencies as the key benefit to improving sex offender management. •Respondents reported that in practice, sex offender management in Ireland is fragmented and unevenly implemented. The research concluded that an independent National Sex Offender Authority should be established as an oversight and regulatory body for policy, strategy and direction in sex offender management. Further areas of research were also highlighted: ongoing evaluation and audits of the joint agency process and systems in place; recidivism studies tracking the risk assessment ratings and subsequent offending; and an evaluation of the current status of sex offender housing in Ireland.

Caractéristiques communes, facteurs de risque et facteurs de protection chez les adolescents auteurs d’abus sexuels

Rapport de stage présenté à la Faculté des Études Supérieures des arts et sciences, Département de criminologie, en vue de l’obtention du grade de Maîtrise (M. Sc.) en criminologie, option intervention

Caractéristiques communes, facteurs de risque et facteurs de protection chez les adolescents auteurs d’abus sexuels

Rapport de stage présenté à la Faculté des Études Supérieures des arts et sciences, Département de criminologie, en vue de l’obtention du grade de Maîtrise (M. Sc.) en criminologie, option intervention

Ciblage des délinquants sexuels : regard sur la qualité et la pertinence d'un programme de surveillance en communauté

Les crimes sexuels génèrent beaucoup d’inquiétudes chez la société, particulièrement quand vient le temps de libérer certains délinquants sexuels à risque élevé de récidive. Les évaluations du risque sont ainsi pertinentes puisque la majorité des délinquants sexuels sont libérés suivant une peine d’emprisonnement déterminée (Wilson, Picheca and Prinzo, 2005). Certaines méthodes sont donc mises en place servant à gérer les délinquants sexuels en communauté. Un cadre légal impose certaines conditions de remise en liberté et vise à réduire le risque de récidive (Hanson and Morton-Bourgon, 2005). Toutefois, une fois leur sentence complétée, certains délinquants posent toujours un risque pour la société. Pour répondre à ce problème, des partenariats ont été développés au Québec entre les services correctionnels et policiers. Ils imposent une surveillance accrue des personnes à risque élevé de récidive (PRER). Les décisions qui sont prises peuvent être lourdes de conséquences. Il est donc important d’évaluer si les méthodes de ciblage sont efficaces, soit orientées vers les individus à haut risque de récidive. Les données utilisées dans le cadre de ce mémoire proviennent de deux sources. Premièrement, un échantillon comparatif issu d’une compilation de données comprenant l’ensemble des délinquants sexuels condamnés depuis 20 ans a été utilisé (n = 235). Puis, un registre développé depuis 10 ans regroupant l’ensemble des individus soumis au programme a été analysé (n = 235). Les participants ont été évalués en fonction des variables disponibles de la Statique-99R. L’utilité de l’outil pour la police a été mise en perspective. Le programme ne semble pas n’impliquer que des délinquants sexuels à haut risque de récidive. Les taux de récidive sont relativement bas et similaires dans les deux échantillons. Les services de police ont des données pertinentes qui permettent d’étudier la qualité du ciblage fait dans le cadre du programme. Des évaluations plus fiables pourraient améliorer l’allocation des ressources et les stratégies de ciblage.

Étude des liens entre l’isolement, la psychopathie et l’hostilité avec le risque de récidive chez les délinquants sexuels

La présente recherche vise à cerner les liens entre l’isolement et les traits psychopathiques avec le risque de récidive chez les délinquants sexuels. La littérature scientifique montre que le manque d’intimité, le sentiment de solitude et la psychopathie sont des caractéristiques très présentes chez les délinquants sexuels. Le manque d’intimité et la solitude émotionnelle peuvent être dus à une peur du rejet en lien avec un attachement fragile. D’un autre côté, l’isolement social peut être lié à des déficits relationnels causés par la présence de traits psychopathiques. De plus, le manque d’intimité, la solitude émotionnelle et les traits psychopathiques engendrent de l’hostilité et ont chacun un impact sur la récidive. La présente étude a alors pour objectif de voir les liens entre le manque d’intimité, le sentiment de solitude, les traits psychopathiques et l’hostilité avec le risque de récidive sexuelle et violente tel qu’évalué par la Statique-99. Les résultats font ressortir qu’il n’y a pas de relation entre l’isolement et les traits psychopathiques mais que l’isolement et les traits psychopathiques sont liés à l’hostilité. Les agresseurs sexuels d’adultes sont plus psychopathiques que les agresseurs sexuels d’enfants qui éprouvent plus de solitude émotionnelle. Les traits psychopathiques sont liés à la dimension antisociale et la solitude émotionnelle à la dimension sexuelle de la Statique-99. La solitude émotionnelle et les traits psychopathiques ont une relation distincte avec le risque de récidive chez les agresseurs sexuels.

Les instruments actuariels d'évaluation du risque de récidive : applicables aux auteurs d'infractions sexuelles ayant une déficience intellectuelle?

L’intérêt porté à l’évaluation du risque de récidive chez les délinquants ayant une déficience intellectuelle (DI) a notablement augmenté depuis les 10 dernières années. D’ailleurs, certains croient que les instruments utilisés pour mesurer le risque chez les auteurs d’infractions sexuelles neurotypiques peuvent s’appliquer aux auteurs d’infractions sexuelles ayant une DI tandis que d’autres appuient l’idée d’utiliser et de développer des mesures actuarielles propres à ces individus. Trois objectifs ont été posés pour tenter d’éclaircir ces deux visions, soit 1) Comparer les taux de récidive entre les deux groupes d’auteurs d’infractions sexuelles (ayant une DI et neurotypiques), en plus de déterminer lequel récidive plus rapidement sur une courte période de temps, 2) Analyser la validité prédictive de huit instruments actuariels (et de la PCL-R) auprès d’un échantillon d’auteurs d’infractions sexuelles ayant une DI et 3) Analyser la composition des instruments par domaines (Knight et Thornton, 2007). L’échantillon est composé de 550 auteurs d’infractions sexuelles dont 54 ont une DI. Les résultats suggèrent que les deux groupes d’auteurs d’infractions sexuelles (neurotypiques et ayant une DI) présentent des taux de récidive similaires. Un nombre restreint d’instruments semblent par contre efficaces chez les auteurs d’infractions sexuelles ayant une DI. De ce fait, le SVR-20 s’est révélé avoir une validité prédictive pour la récidive sexuelle, le RMC, le RMV et le MnSOST-R pour la récidive violente et le VRAG pour la récidive non violente. Il est toutefois justifié de se questionner sur la manière d’évaluer le risque chez cette clientèle particulière. L’analyse de la composition des instruments semble importante puisque certains domaines pourraient prédire différemment la récidive chez les auteurs d’infractions sexuelles ayant une DI. Une grande partie des facteurs pouvant être utiles dans la prédiction de la récidive ne semblent toujours pas avoir été identifiés, repoussant ainsi la création d’instruments propres aux délinquants ayant une DI.

Ciblage des délinquants sexuels : regard sur la qualité et la pertinence d'un programme de surveillance en communauté

Les crimes sexuels génèrent beaucoup d’inquiétudes chez la société, particulièrement quand vient le temps de libérer certains délinquants sexuels à risque élevé de récidive. Les évaluations du risque sont ainsi pertinentes puisque la majorité des délinquants sexuels sont libérés suivant une peine d’emprisonnement déterminée (Wilson, Picheca and Prinzo, 2005). Certaines méthodes sont donc mises en place servant à gérer les délinquants sexuels en communauté. Un cadre légal impose certaines conditions de remise en liberté et vise à réduire le risque de récidive (Hanson and Morton-Bourgon, 2005). Toutefois, une fois leur sentence complétée, certains délinquants posent toujours un risque pour la société. Pour répondre à ce problème, des partenariats ont été développés au Québec entre les services correctionnels et policiers. Ils imposent une surveillance accrue des personnes à risque élevé de récidive (PRER). Les décisions qui sont prises peuvent être lourdes de conséquences. Il est donc important d’évaluer si les méthodes de ciblage sont efficaces, soit orientées vers les individus à haut risque de récidive. Les données utilisées dans le cadre de ce mémoire proviennent de deux sources. Premièrement, un échantillon comparatif issu d’une compilation de données comprenant l’ensemble des délinquants sexuels condamnés depuis 20 ans a été utilisé (n = 235). Puis, un registre développé depuis 10 ans regroupant l’ensemble des individus soumis au programme a été analysé (n = 235). Les participants ont été évalués en fonction des variables disponibles de la Statique-99R. L’utilité de l’outil pour la police a été mise en perspective. Le programme ne semble pas n’impliquer que des délinquants sexuels à haut risque de récidive. Les taux de récidive sont relativement bas et similaires dans les deux échantillons. Les services de police ont des données pertinentes qui permettent d’étudier la qualité du ciblage fait dans le cadre du programme. Des évaluations plus fiables pourraient améliorer l’allocation des ressources et les stratégies de ciblage.