Optimal release strategies for biological control agents: an application of stochastic dynamic programming to population management

1. Establishing biological control agents in the field is a major step in any classical biocontrol programme, yet there are few general guidelines to help the practitioner decide what factors might enhance the establishment of such agents. 2. A stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) approach, linked to a metapopulation model, was used to find optimal release strategies (number and size of releases), given constraints on time and the number of biocontrol agents available. By modelling within a decision-making framework we derived rules of thumb that will enable biocontrol workers to choose between management options, depending on the current state of the system. 3. When there are few well-established sites, making a few large releases is the optimal strategy. For other states of the system, the optimal strategy ranges from a few large releases, through a mixed strategy (a variety of release sizes), to many small releases, as the probability of establishment of smaller inocula increases. 4. Given that the probability of establishment is rarely a known entity, we also strongly recommend a mixed strategy in the early stages of a release programme, to accelerate learning and improve the chances of finding the optimal approach.

Sequential increase in Egr-1 and AP-1 DNA binding activity in the dentate gyrus following the induction of long-term potentiation

Establishment of long-term potentiation (LTP) at perforant path synapses is highly correlated with increased expression of Egr and AP-1 transcription factors in rat dentate gyrus granule cells. We have investigated whether increased transcription factor levels are reflected in increased transcription factor activity by assessing Egr and AP-I DNA binding activity using gel shift assays. LTP produced an increase in binding to the Egr element, which was NMDA receptor-dependent and correlated closely with our previously reported increase in Egr-1 (zif/268) protein levels. Supershift analysis confirmed involvement of Egr-1, but not Egr-2 in the DNA binding activity. AP-1 DNA binding was also rapidly elevated in parallel with protein levels, however, the peak increase in activity was delayed until 4 h, a time point when we have previously shown that only jun-D protein was elevated. These data indicate that binding of Egr-1 and AP-1 to their response elements is increased in two phases. This may result in activation of distinct banks of target genes which contribute to the establishment of persistent LTP. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Use of advance information in patients with schizophrenia

To document possible motor disturbance in schizophrenia, we examined the ability to use advance information (or cues) to plan movements in a sequential button pressing task in 12 Clozapine medicated patients. Programming of movements under various cues revealed that patients with schizophrenia, relative to controls, initiated movements slower to the right than left, providing possible evidence for right hemineglect (left hemisphere dysfunction). Additionally, patients with schizophrenia had difficulty in the initiation of movements in the absence of a cue, suggesting internal cue generation difficulty for movement related to some form of fronto-striatal disturbance. Motor abnormalities were predominantly observed at the level of movement initiation, but not execution, contrary to basal ganglia disorders such as Parkinson's and Huntington's disease.

A simplified, sequential, phosphorus fractionation method

Hedley er al. (1982) developed what has become the most widely used land modified), phosphorus (P) fractionation technique. It consists of sequential extraction of increasingly less phytoavailable P pools. Extracts are centrifuged at up to 25000 g (RCF) and filtered to 0.45 mu m to ensure that soil is not lost between extractions. In attempting to transfer this method to laboratories with limited facilities, it was considered that access to high-speed centrifuges, and the cost of frequent filtration may prevent adoption of this P fractionation technique. The modified method presented here was developed to simplify methodology, reduce cost, and therefore increase accessibility of P fractionation technology. It provides quantitative recovery of soil between extractions, using low speed centrifugation without filtration. This is achieved by increasing the ionic strength of dilute extracts, through the addition of NaCl, to flocculate clay particles. Addition of NaCl does not change the amount of P extracted. Flocculation with low speed centrifugation produced extracts comparable with those having undergone filtration (0.025 mu m). A malachite green colorimetric method was adopted for inorganic P determination, as this simple manual method provides high sensitivity with negligible interference from other anions. This approach can also be used for total P following digestion, alternatively non-discriminatory methods, such as inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectroscopy, may be employed.

Using stochastic dynamic programming to determine optimal fire management for Banksia ornata

1. A model of the population dynamics of Banksia ornata was developed, using stochastic dynamic programming (a state-dependent decision-making tool), to determine optimal fire management strategies that incorporate trade-offs between biodiversity conservation and fuel reduction. 2. The modelled population of B. ornata was described by its age and density, and was exposed to the risk of unplanned fires and stochastic variation in germination success. 3. For a given population in each year, three management strategies were considered: (i) lighting a prescribed fire; (ii) controlling the incidence of unplanned fire; (iii) doing nothing. 4. The optimal management strategy depended on the state of the B. ornata population, with the time since the last fire (age of the population) being the most important variable. Lighting a prescribed fire at an age of less than 30 years was only optimal when the density of seedlings after a fire was low (< 100 plants ha(-1)) or when there were benefits of maintaining a low fuel load by using more frequent fire. 5. Because the cost of management was assumed to be negligible (relative to the value of the persistence of the population), the do-nothing option was never the optimal strategy, although lighting prescribed fires had only marginal benefits when the mean interval between unplanned fires was less than 20-30 years.

Assisting decision-making in Queensland barley production through chance constrained programming

A chance constrained programming model is developed to assist Queensland barley growers make varietal and agronomic decisions in the face of changing product demands and volatile production conditions. Unsuitable or overlooked in many risk programming applications, the chance constrained programming approach nonetheless aptly captures the single-stage decision problem faced by barley growers of whether to plant lower-yielding but potentially higher-priced malting varieties, given a particular expectation of meeting malting grade standards. Different expectations greatly affect the optimal mix of malting and feed barley activities. The analysis highlights the suitability of chance constrained programming to this specific class of farm decision problem.

Modelling socially optimal land allocations for sugar cane growing in North Queensland: a linked mathematical programming and choice modelling study

A modelling framework is developed to determine the joint economic and environmental net benefits of alternative land allocation strategies. Estimates of community preferences for preservation of natural land, derived from a choice modelling study, are used as input to a model of agricultural production in an optimisation framework. The trade-offs between agricultural production and environmental protection are analysed using the sugar industry of the Herbert River district of north Queensland as an example. Spatially-differentiated resource attributes and the opportunity costs of natural land determine the optimal tradeoffs between production and conservation for a range of sugar prices.

Formal methods within a totally functional approach to programming

Taking functional programming to its extremities in search of simplicity still requires integration with other development (e.g. formal) methods. Induction is the key to deriving and verifying functional programs, but can be simplified through packaging proofs with functions, particularly folds, on data (structures). Totally Functional Programming avoids the complexities of interpretation by directly representing data (structures) as platonic combinators - the functions characteristic to the data. The link between the two simplifications is that platonic combinators are a kind of partially-applied fold, which means that platonic combinators inherit fold-theoretic properties, but with some apparent simplifications due to the platonic combinator representation. However, despite observable behaviour within functional programming that suggests that TFP is widely-applicable, significant work remains before TFP as such could be widely adopted.

Response programming in dementia of the Alzheimer type: A kinematic analysis

Although planning is important for the functioning of patients with dementia of the Alzheimer Type (DAT), little is known about response programming in DAT. This study used a cueing paradigm coupled with quantitative kinematic analysis to document the preparation and execution of movements made by a group of 12 DAT patients and their age and sex matched controls. Participants connected a series of targets placed upon a WACOM SD420 graphics tablet, in response to the pattern of illumination of a set of light emitting diodes (LEDs). In one condition, participants could programme the upcoming movement, whilst in another they were forced to reprogramme this movement on-line (i.e. they were not provided with advance information about the location of the upcoming target). DAT patients were found to have programming deficits, taking longer to initiate movements; particularly in the absence of cues. While problems spontaneously programming a movement might cause a greater reliance upon on-line guidance, when both groups were required to guide the movement on-line, DAT patients continued to show slower and less efficient movements implying declining sensori-motor function; these differences were not simply due to strategy or medication status. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd.

Effect of a sequential education and monitoring programme on quality-of-life components in heart failure

Aims Trials of disease management programmes (DMP) in heart failure (HF) have shown controversial results regarding quality of life. We hypothesized that a DMP applied over the long-term could produce different effects on each of the quality-of-life components. Methods and results We extended the prospective, randomized REMADHE Trial, which studied a DMP in HF patients. We analysed changes in Minnesota Living with Heart Failure Questionnaire components in 412 patients, 60.5% male, age 50.2 +/- 11.4 years, left ventricular ejection fraction 34.7 +/- 10.5%. During a mean follow-up of 3.6 +/- 2.2 years, 6.3% of patients underwent heart transplantation and 31.8% died. Global quality-of-life scores improved in the DMP intervention group, compared with controls, respectively: 57.5 +/- 3.1 vs. 52.6 +/- 4.3 at baseline, 32.7 +/- 3.9 vs. 40.2 +/- 6.3 at 6 months, 31.9 +/- 4.3 vs. 41.5 +/- 7.4 at 12 months, 26.8 +/- 3.1 vs. 47.0 +/- 5.3 at the final assessment; P<0.01. Similarly, the physical component (23.7 +/- 1.4 vs. 21.1 +/- 2.2 at baseline, 16.2 +/- 2.9 vs. 18.0 +/- 3.3 at 6 months, 17.3 +/- 2.9 vs. 23.1 +/- 5.7 at 12 months, 11.4 +/- 1.6 vs. 19.9 +/- 2.4 final; P<0.01), the emotional component (13.2 +/- 1.0 vs. 12.1 +/- 1.4 at baseline, 11.7 +/- 2.7 vs. 12.3 +/- 3.1 at 6 months, 12.4 +/- 2.9 vs. 16.8 +/- 5.9 at 12 months, 6.7 +/- 1.0 vs. 10.6 +/- 1.4 final; P<0.01) and the additional questions (20.8 +/- 1.2 vs. 19.3 +/- 1.8 at baseline, 14.3 +/- 2.7 vs. 17.3 +/- 3.1 at 6 months, 12.4 +/- 2.9 vs. 21.0 +/- 5.5 at 12 months, 6.7 +/- 1.4 vs. 17.3 +/- 2.2 final; P<0.01) were better (lower) in the intervention group. The emotional component improved earlier than the others. Post-randomization quality of life was not associated with events. Conclusion Components of the quality-of-life assessment responded differently to DMP. These results indicate the need for individualized DMP strategies in patients with HF. Trial registration information www.clincaltrials.gov NCT00505050-REMADHE.

Sequential Changes of Longitudinal and Radial Myocardial Deformation Indices in the Healthy Neonate Heart

Background: Significant hemodynamic changes, including preload and afterload modifications, occur during the transition from the fetal to the neonatal environment. The ductus arteriosus closes, pulmonary vascular resistance decreases, and pulmonary blood flow increases. Strain rate (SR) and strain (e) have been proposed as ultrasound indices for quantifying regional wall deformation. This study was designed to determine if these indices can detect variations in regional deformation between early and late neonatal periods. Methods: Data were obtained from 30 healthy neonates (15 male). The initial study was performed at a mean age of 20.1614 hours (exam 1) and the second at 31.962.9 days (exam 2). Apical and parasternal views were used to quantify regional left ventricular (LV) and right ventricular (RV) longitudinal and radial SR and e, and systolic, early, and late diastolic values were calculated from these curves. A paired-samples t test was performed comparing the two groups. Results: Compared with exam 1, LV radial deformation showed significant reductions in peak systolic e in the basal and mid segments (51615% vs 4669%, P < .01). LV longitudinal deformation behaved similarly, showing significant peak systolic e reductions in all measured segments. Systolic SR showed reductions only in the basal and apical segments of the lateral wall and in the mid portion of the inferior wall (-1.9 +/- 0.5 vs -1.7 +/- 0.3 s(-1) and -1.9 +/- 0.4 vs -1.7 +/- 0.2 s(-1), respectively, P = .03). RV longitudinal free and inferior wall systolic SR and e values were significantly higher in exam 2. Conclusions: LV peak systolic e decreases in exam 2 were possibly due to afterload increase and preload decrease. The lower RV initial deformation indices could be attributed to increased afterload caused by physiologic pulmonary hypertension or immature RV contractile properties. SR seemed to be a more robust index than e and less influenced by preload and afterload hemodynamic alteration. (J Am Soc Echocardiogr 2010;23:294-300.)

Strategic trade policy under uncertainty: Sufficient conditions for the optimality of ad valorem, specific and quadratic trade taxes

In most previous work on strategic trade policy the form of government intervention has been prescribed in advance. In this paper, we apply a solution concept discussed by Klemperer and Meyer for games in which the strategy space consists of the class of all (non state-contingent) price quantity schedules. We examine a series of specific assumptions on demand and supply conditions and derive the associated equilibrium trade policies. We derive welfare implications for all cases examined.

Sequential asymmetric auctions with endogenous participation

In this paper we suggest a model of sequential auctions with endogenous participation where each bidder conjectures about the number of participants at each round. Then, after learning his value, each bidder decides whether or not to participate in the auction. In the calculation of his expected value, each bidder uses his conjectures about the number of participants for each possible subgroup. In equilibrium, the conjectured probability is compatible with the probability of staying in the auction. In our model, players face participation costs, bidders may buy as many objects as they wish and they are allowed to drop out at any round. Bidders can drop out at any time, but they cannot come back to the auction. In particular we can determine the number of participants and expected prices in equilibrium. We show that for any bidding strategy, there exists such a probability of staying in the auction. For the case of stochastically independent objects, we show that in equilibrium every bidder who decides to continue submits a bid that is equal to his value at each round. When objects are stochastically identical, we are able to show that expected prices are decreasing.

Spatiotemporal solitons in multidimensional optical media with a quadratic nonlinearity

We consider solutions to the second-harmonic generation equations in two-and three-dimensional dispersive media in the form of solitons localized in space and time. As is known, collapse does not take place in these models, which is why the solitons may be stable. The general solution is obtained in an approximate analytical form by means of a variational approach, which also allows the stability of the solutions to be predicted. Then, we directly simulate the two-dimensional case, taking the initial configuration as suggested by the variational approximation. We thus demonstrate that spatiotemporal solitons indeed exist and are stable. Furthermore, they are not, in the general case, equivalent to the previously known cylindrical spatial solitons. Direct simulations generate solitons with some internal oscillations. However, these oscillations neither grow nor do they exhibit any significant radiative damping. Numerical solutions of the stationary version of the equations produce the same solitons in their unperturbed form, i.e., without internal oscillations. Strictly stable solitons exist only if the system has anomalous dispersion at both the fundamental harmonic and second harmonic (SH), including the case of zero dispersion at SH. Quasistationary solitons, decaying extremely slowly into radiation, are found in the presence of weak normal dispersion at the second-harmonic frequency.