Stability and sensitivity analysis of Be-CoDiS, an epidemiological model to predict the spread of human diseases between countries. Validation with data from the 2014-16 West African Ebola Virus Disease epidemic.

Ebola virus disease is a lethal human and primate disease that requires a particular attention from the international health authorities due to important recent outbreaks in some Western African countries and isolated cases in European and North-America continents. Regarding the emergency of this situation, various decision tools, such as mathematical models, were developed to assist the authorities to focus their efforts in important factors to eradicate Ebola. In a previous work, we have proposed an original deterministic spatial-temporal model, called Be-CoDiS (Between-Countries Disease Spread), to study the evolution of human diseases within and between countries by taking into consideration the movement of people between geographical areas. This model was validated by considering numerical experiments regarding the 2014-16 West African Ebola Virus Disease epidemic. In this article, we propose to perform a stability analysis of Be-CoDiS. Our first objective is to study the equilibrium states of simplified versions of this model, limited to the cases of one an two countries, and to determine their basic reproduction ratios. Then, in order to give some recommendations for the allocation of resources used to control the disease, we perform a sensitivity analysis of those basic reproduction ratios regarding the model parameters. Finally, we validate the obtained results by considering numerical experiments based on data from the 2014-16 West African Ebola Virus Disease epidemic.

Colonización y formación de un paisaje agrario. El caso de San Antonio (Requena). 1750-1920

San Antonio, actual pedanía de 2.100 hb situada a 5 km de la ciudad de Requena, es un ejemplo de transformación del paisaje por efecto de la colonización humana. En 1752 poblaban esta partida dos docenas de familias de labradores, jornaleros y pastores repartidos en una veintena de casas dispersas por la campiña. La propiedad de la tierra estaba en manos de una docena de terratenientes forasteros y del concejo municipal de Requena. La superficie cultivada ascendía a uno 600 almudes de regadío y 1.000 de secano. Cien años más tarde había 730 en riego y 3.700 en secano. Este incremento estuvo acompañado de una expansión del viñedo y los cereales, a costa de pastizales y baldíos, y de una distribución y traspaso parcial de la propiedad de la tierra a manos de los colonos que se multiplicaron por diez en poco más de un siglo. Las causas que propiciaron aquella transformación fueron básicamente dos: la desamortización y venta de bienes concejiles y eclesiásticos, y la proliferación de contratos de plantación de viña a medias, mediante los cuales decenas de jornaleros lograron hacerse con una pequeña propiedad vitícola.

West African Migrants in Spain: Human Factors and Emerging International Policy. ACES Working Paper No. 6, Fall 2008

This paper concerns itself with the recent phenomenon of West Africans leaving the African continent and seeking work in Spain. By the year 2003, a barely noticeable blip on the screen of the age-old phenomenon that is migration became a conspicuous trend. Depending on one's perspective this trend is either a natural flow of people from one region to another, or it is an alarming turn of events that needs immediate global attention. However, when it involves significant loss of life - as does the sea journey of the poorest aspirants - surely all who ponder the migrant question would agree that this qualifies as a crisis. The next question becomes, then, is it best to focus on minimizing the risks or to focus on deterring the would-be migrants at the onset of their journey? This question and its possible answer are further nuanced by whether those determined to leave receive incentives for choosing to stay at home or whether government officials and others who respond to the crisis in both sending and receiving countries practice a forceful type of deterrent that merely halts the process of migration but does not tackle the issue of why the person chose to leave in the first place.

The Mirage of the State: Why the West has failed in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Mali and Central African Republic? Jean Monnet/Robert Schuman Paper Series Vol. 14 No. 15, July 2014

The state still matters. However, the members of the Euro-Atlantic community may be misinterpreting this crucial baseline prior launching their military interventions since 2001. The latest violence and collapse of the state of Iraq after the invasion of Northern Iraq by a radical Sunni Muslim terrorist group, so-called Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), demonstrate once again the centrality and requirement of a functioning state in order to maintain violent forces to disrupt domestic and regional stability. Since 2001, the US and its European allies have waged wars against failed-states in order to increase this security and national interests, and then have been involved in some type of state-building.1 This has been the case in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Mali, and Central African Republic (CAR). France went into Mali (2012) and CAR (2013), which preceded two European Union military and civilian Common Security and Defense Policy missions (CSDP), in order to avoid the collapse of these two states. The threat of the collapse of both states was a concern for the members of the Euro-Atlantic community as it could have spread to the region and causing even greater instabilities. In Mali, the country was under radical Islamic pressures coming from the North after the collapse of Libya ensuing the 2011 Western intervention, while in CAR it was mainly an ethno-religious crisis. Failed states are a real concern, as they can rapidly become training grounds for radical groups and permitting all types of smuggling and trafficking.2 In Mali, France wanted to protect its large French population and avoid the fall of Mali in the hands of radical Islamic groups directly or indirectly linked to Al-Qaeda. A fallen Mali could have destabilized the region of the Sahel and ultimately affected the stability of Southern European borders. France wanted to avoid the development of a safe haven across the Sahel where movements of people and goods are uncontrolled and illegal.3 Since the end of the Cold War, Western powers have been involved in stabilizing neighborhoods and regions, like the Balkans, Africa, and Middle East, which at the exceptions of the Balkans, have led to failed policies. 9/11 changes everything. The US, under President George W. Bush, started to wage war against terrorism and all states link to it. This started a period of continuous Western interventions in this post-9/11 era in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Mali and CAR. If history has demonstrated one thing, the members of the Euro-Atlantic community are struggling and will continue to struggle to stabilize Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Mali and Central African Republic (CAR) for one simple reason: no clear endgame. Is it the creation of a state à la Westphalian in order to permit these states to operate as the sole guarantor of security? Or is the reestablishment of status quo in these countries permitting to exit and end Western operations? This article seeks to analyze Western interventions in these five countries in order to reflect on the concept of the state and the erroneous starting point for each intervention.4 In the first part, the political status of each country is analyzed in order to understand the internal and regional crisis. In a second time, the concept of the state, framed into the Buzanian trinity, is discussed and applied to the cases. In the last part the European and American civilian-military doctrines are examined in accordance with their latest military interventions and in their broader spectrum.

The pragmatics of computer-mediated communication between South African and Mexican drug traffickers

South Africa and Mexico are ripe with drug trafficking. The gangs and syndicates running the drug businesses in these two countries collaborate occasionally. Communication between these international drug business partners takes place on social media. Their main language of communication is English, mixed with some limited use of Spanish and Afrikaans. The key purpose of the interactions between the South African and Mexican parties is the organisation of their business activities. This study aims at examining how the drug traffickers position each other and themselves regarding their common business interest and how their relationship evolves throughout their interactions. Moreover, it is of interest to look at how these people make use of different social media and their affordances. For this a qualitative analysis of the interaction between two drug traffickers (one South African and one Mexican) on Facebook, Threema and PlayStation 4 was performed. Computer-mediated communication between these two main informants was studied at various stages of their relationship. Results show that at first the interaction between the South African and Mexican drug traffickers consists of interpersonal negotiations of power. The high risk of the drug business and gang/syndicate membership paired with intercultural frictions causes the two interlocutors to be extremely cautious and at the same time to mark their position. As their relationship develops and they gain trust in each other a shift to interpersonal negotiations of solidarity takes place. In these discursive practices diverse linguistic strategies are employed for creating relational effects and for positioning the other and the self. The discursive activities of the interactants are also identity practices. Thus, the two drug traffickers construct identities through these social practices, positioning and their interpersonal relationship.

The Prospect : a monthly magazine for the colored people of America.

Not in J.P. Danky's African-American newspapers and periodicals, a national bibliography.

Address by the Hon. Geo. S. Boutwell : delivered in Faneuil Hall, Boston, January 1, 1903 at the celebration of the fortieth anniversary of the Emancipation Proclamation by the colored people of Boston and vicinity.

At head of title: Your are earnestly asked to hand this after reading to some other person who will also give it careful consideration.

Afro-American encyclopaedia : or, the thoughts, doings, and sayings of the race, embracing addresses, lectures, biographical sketches, sermons, poems, names of universities, colleges, seminaries, newspapers, books, and a history of the denominations, giving the numerical strength of each. In fact, it teaches every subject of interest to the colored people, as discussed by more than one hundred of their wisest and best men and women /

Mode of access: Internet.

White attitudes toward black people.

Includes bibliography.

Is plenty too much for the common people? The hottest question that ever stung a statesman or a slave. Question! Question! Question! I call for the question! /

Includes index

Medical advice to the consumptive and asthmatic people of England : : whering the present method of treating disorders of the lungs is shewn to be futile and fundamentally wrong and a new essay method of cure /

Mode of access: Internet.

Profile of critical social welfare and economic problems facing Negro people in the Detroit community.

Cover title.

Puddleford, and its people.

Engravings by Bookhout.

Discourses on tea, sugar, milk, made-wines, spirits, punch, tobacco, &c. : with plain and useful rules for gouty people /

Mode of access: Internet.

The fourteenth annual report of the American Society for Colonizing the Free People of Colour of the United States : with an appendix.

Auxiliary colonization societies and their ocfficers final [7] p.