The distribution of sales revenues from pharmaceutical innovation.

OBJECTIVE: This report updates our earlier work on the returns to pharmaceutical research and development (R&D) in the US (1980 to 1984), which showed that the returns distributions are highly skewed. It evaluates a more recent cohort of new drug introductions in the US (1988 to 1992) and examines how the returns distribution is emerging for drugs with life cycles concentrated in the 1990s versus the 1980s. DESIGN AND SETTING: Methods were described in detail in our earlier reports. The current sample included 110 new drug entities (including 28 orphan drugs), and sales data were obtained for the period 1988 to 1998, which represented between 7 and 11 years of sales for the drugs included. 20 years was chosen as the expected market life for this cohort, and a 2-step procedure was used to project future sales for the drugs--during the period until patent expiry and then beyond patent expiry until the 20-year time-horizon was completed. Thus, the values in the first half of the life cycle are essentially based on realised sales, while those in the second half are projected using information on patent expiry and other inputs. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES AND RESULTS: Peak annual sales for the top decile of drugs introduced between 1988 and 1992 in the US amounted to almost $US1.1 billion compared with peak sales of less than $US175 million (1992 values) for the mean compound. In particular, the top decile accounted for 56% of overall sales revenue. Although the sales distributions were skewed in both our earlier and current analysis, the top decile in the later time-period exhibited more rapid rates of growth after launch, a peak that was more than 50% greater in real terms than for the 1980 to 1984 cohort, and a faster rate of expected decline in sales after patent expiry. One factor contributing to the distribution of sales revenues becoming more skewed over time is the orphan drug phenomenon (i.e. most of the orphan drugs are concentrated at the bottom of the distribution). CONCLUSION: The distribution of sales revenues for new drug compounds is highly skewed in nature. In this regard, the top decile of new drugs accounts for more than half of the total sales generated by the 1988 to 1992 cohort analysed. Furthermore, the distribution of sales revenues for this cohort is more skewed than that of the 1980 to 1984 cohort we analysed in previous research.

Integrating personnel movement simulation into preliminary ship design

Traditionally, when designing a ship the driving issues are seen to be powering, stability, strength and seakeeping. Issues related to ship operations and evolutions are investigated later in the design process, within the constraint of a fixed layout. This can result in operational inefficiencies and limitations, excessive crew numbers and potentially hazardous situations. University College London and the University of Greenwich are in the final year of a three year EPSRC funded research project to integrate the simulation of personnel movement into early stage ship design. This allows the assessment of onboard operations while the design is still amenable to change. The project brings together the University of Greenwich developed maritimeEXODUS personnel movement simulation software and the SURFCON implementation of the Design Building Block approach to early stage ship design, which originated with the UCL Ship Design Research team. Central to the success of this project is the definition of a suitable series of Naval Combatant Human Performance Metrics which can be used to assess the performance of the design in different operational scenarios. The paper outlines the progress made on deriving the human performance metric from human factors criteria measured in simulations and their incorporation into a Behavioural Matrix for analysis. It describes the production of a series of SURFCON ship designs based on the RN Type 22 Batch 3 frigate, and their analysis using the PARAMARINE and maritimeEXODUS software. Conclusions to date will be presented on the integration of personnel movement simulation into the preliminary ship design process.

Integrating personnel movement simulation into prelimary ship design

Traditionally, when designing a ship the driving issues are seen to be powering, stability, strength and seakeeping. Issues related to ship operations and evolutions are investigated later in the design process, within the constraint of a fixed layout. This can result in operational inefficiencies and limitations, excessive crew numbers and potentially hazardous situations. This paper summarises work by University College London and the University of Greenwich prior to the completion of a three year EPSRC funded research project to integrate the simulation of personnel movement into early stage ship design. This integration is intended to facilitate the assessment of onboard operations while the design is still highly amenable to change. The project brings together the University of Greenwich developed maritimeEXODUS personnel movement simulation software and the SURFCON implementation of the Design Building Block approach to early stage ship design, which originated with the UCL Ship Design Research team and has been implemented within the PARAMARINE ship design system produced by Graphics Research Corporation. Central to the success of this project is the definition of a suitable series of Performance Measures (PM) which can be used to assess the human performance of the design in different operational scenarios. The paper outlines the progress made on deriving the PM from human dynamics criteria measured in simulations and their incorporation into a Human Performance Metric (HPM) for analysis. It describes the production of a series of SURFCON ship designs, based on the Royal Navy’s Type 22 Batch 3 frigate, and their analysis using the PARAMARINE and maritimeEXODUS software. Conclusions on the work to date and for the remainder of the project are presented addressing the integration of personnel movement simulation into the preliminary ship design process.

Personnel radiation dose considerations in the use of an integrated PET–CT scanner for radiotherapy treatment planning of an integrated PET-CT scanner for radiotherapy treatment planning

The acquisition of radiotherapy planning scans on positron emission tomography (PET)-CT scanners requires the involvement of radiotherapy radiographers. This study assessed the radiation dose received by these radiographers during this process. Radiotherapy planning F- fluorodeoxyglucose (F-FDG) PET-CT scans were acquired for 28 non-small cell lung cancer patients. In order to minimise the radiation dose received, a two-stage process was used in which the most time-consuming part of the set-up was performed before the patient received their F-FDG injection. Throughout this process, the radiographers wore electronic personal dosemeters and recorded the doses received at different stages of the process. The mean total radiation dose received by a radiotherapy radiographer was 5.1±2.6 mSv per patient. The use of the two-stage process reduced the time spent in close proximity to the patient by approximately a factor of four. The two-stage process was effective in keeping radiation dose to a minimum. The use of a pre-injection set-up session reduces the radiation dose to the radiotherapy radiographers because of their involvement in PET-CT radiotherapy treatment planning scans by approximately a factor of three.

Drivers of sales performance: a contemporary meta-analysis. Have salespeople become knowledge brokers?

It has been 25 years since the publication of a comprehensive review of the full spectrum of salesperformance drivers. This study takes stock of the contemporary field and synthesizes empirical evidence from the period 1982–2008. The authors revise the classification scheme for sales performance determinants devised by Walker et al. (1977) and estimate both the predictive validity of its sub-categories and the impact of a range of moderators on determinant-sales performance relationships. Based on multivariate causal model analysis, the results make two major observations: (1) Five sub-categories demonstrate significant relationships with sales performance: selling-related knowledge (ß=.28), degree of adaptiveness (ß=.27), role ambiguity (ß=-.25), cognitive aptitude (ß=.23) and work engagement (ß=.23). (2) These sub-categories are moderated by measurement method, research context, and salestype variables. The authors identify managerial implications of the results and offer suggestions for further research, including the conjecture that as the world is moving toward a knowledge-intensive economy, salespeople could be functioning as knowledge-brokers. The results seem to back this supposition and indicate how it might inspire future research in the field of personal selling.

Dynamic pricing models for used products in remanufacturing with lost-sales and uncertain quality

In this paper, we investigate the remanufacturing problem of pricing single-class used products (cores) in the face of random price-dependent returns and random demand. Specifically, we propose a dynamic pricing policy for the cores and then model the problem as a continuous-time Markov decision process. Our models are designed to address three objectives: finite horizon total cost minimization, infinite horizon discounted cost, and average cost minimization. Besides proving optimal policy uniqueness and establishing monotonicity results for the infinite horizon problem, we also characterize the structures of the optimal policies, which can greatly simplify the computational procedure. Finally, we use computational examples to assess the impacts of specific parameters on optimal price and reveal the benefits of a dynamic pricing policy. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Confined Site Construction and its Impact on Personnel Productivity

Inner city, confined site construction is quickly becoming the norm within the construction sector. The aim of this paper is to identify and document the effect, if any, that a confined construction site environment has on the productivity of on-site personnel. In order to compile the relevant information and attain appropriate results on the matter in question, a qualitative analytical approach is adopted. This process incorporates multiple cases studies from Ireland, Northern Ireland and USA. From the resulting case studies, a minimum of three individual interviews and focus group seminars are conducted to aid in the collection of the data while also assisting in the confirmation of the factors identified from a critique of the relevant literature. From the resulting case studies and discussions, a list of the key issues pertaining to the on-site productivity of personnel emerged and is documented as follows; 1) Overcrowding of personnel at workstations, 2) Lack of space for the effective movement of personnel on-site, 3) Numerous trades working within the one space on-site. Through identifying the issues highlighted and proactively mitigating or eliminating the factors detailed, on-site management professionals can strive to ensure maximum productivity from the industry’s most important resource – people.

Body shadowing mitigation using differentiated LOS/NLOS channel models for RSSI-based Monte Carlo personnel localization

Research into localization has produced a wealth of algorithms and techniques to estimate the location of wireless network nodes, however the majority of these schemes do not explicitly account for non-line of sight conditions. Disregarding this common situation reduces their accuracy and their potential for exploitation in real world applications. This is a particular problem for personnel tracking where the user's body itself will inherently cause time-varying blocking according to their movements. Using empirical data, this paper demonstrates that, by accounting for non-line of sight conditions and using received signal strength based Monte Carlo localization, meter scale accuracy can be achieved for a wrist-worn personnel tracking tag in a 120 m indoor office environment. © 2012 IEEE.