947 resultados para SEASONAL VARIABILITY
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Eddy covariance measurements of the turbulent sensible heat, latent heat and carbon dioxide fluxes for 12 months (2011–2012) are reported for the first time for a suburban area in the UK. The results from Swindon are comparable to suburban studies of similar surface cover elsewhere but reveal large seasonal variability. Energy partitioning favours turbulent sensible heat during summer (midday Bowen ratio 1.4–1.6) and latent heat in winter (0.05–0.7). A significant proportion of energy is stored (and released) by the urban fabric and the estimated anthropogenic heat flux is small but non-negligible (0.5–0.9 MJ m−2 day−1). The sensible heat flux is negative at night and for much of winter daytimes, reflecting the suburban nature of the site (44% vegetation) and relatively low built fraction (16%). Latent heat fluxes appear to be water limited during a dry spring in both 2011 and 2012, when the response of the surface to moisture availability can be seen on a daily timescale. Energy and other factors are more relevant controls at other times; at night the wind speed is important. On average, surface conductance follows a smooth, asymmetrical diurnal course peaking at around 6–9 mm s−1, but values are larger and highly variable in wet conditions. The combination of natural (vegetative) and anthropogenic (emission) processes is most evident in the temporal variation of the carbon flux: significant photosynthetic uptake is seen during summer, whilst traffic and building emissions explain peak release in winter (9.5 g C m−2 day−1). The area is a net source of CO2 annually. Analysis by wind direction highlights the role of urban vegetation in promoting evapotranspiration and offsetting CO2 emissions, especially when contrasted against peak traffic emissions from sectors with more roads. Given the extent of suburban land use, these results have important implications for understanding urban energy, water and carbon dynamics.
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With a rapidly increasing fraction of electricity generation being sourced from wind, extreme wind power generation events such as prolonged periods of low (or high) generation and ramps in generation, are a growing concern for the efficient and secure operation of national power systems. As extreme events occur infrequently, long and reliable meteorological records are required to accurately estimate their characteristics. Recent publications have begun to investigate the use of global meteorological “reanalysis” data sets for power system applications, many of which focus on long-term average statistics such as monthly-mean generation. Here we demonstrate that reanalysis data can also be used to estimate the frequency of relatively short-lived extreme events (including ramping on sub-daily time scales). Verification against 328 surface observation stations across the United Kingdom suggests that near-surface wind variability over spatiotemporal scales greater than around 300 km and 6 h can be faithfully reproduced using reanalysis, with no need for costly dynamical downscaling. A case study is presented in which a state-of-the-art, 33 year reanalysis data set (MERRA, from NASA-GMAO), is used to construct an hourly time series of nationally-aggregated wind power generation in Great Britain (GB), assuming a fixed, modern distribution of wind farms. The resultant generation estimates are highly correlated with recorded data from National Grid in the recent period, both for instantaneous hourly values and for variability over time intervals greater than around 6 h. This 33 year time series is then used to quantify the frequency with which different extreme GB-wide wind power generation events occur, as well as their seasonal and inter-annual variability. Several novel insights into the nature of extreme wind power generation events are described, including (i) that the number of prolonged low or high generation events is well approximated by a Poission-like random process, and (ii) whilst in general there is large seasonal variability, the magnitude of the most extreme ramps is similar in both summer and winter. An up-to-date version of the GB case study data as well as the underlying model are freely available for download from our website: http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~energymet/data/Cannon2014/.
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Tropical Applications of Meteorology Using Satellite and Ground-Based Observations (TAMSAT) rainfall estimates are used extensively across Africa for operational rainfall monitoring and food security applications; thus, regional evaluations of TAMSAT are essential to ensure its reliability. This study assesses the performance of TAMSAT rainfall estimates, along with the African Rainfall Climatology (ARC), version 2; the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 product; and the Climate Prediction Center morphing technique (CMORPH), against a dense rain gauge network over a mountainous region of Ethiopia. Overall, TAMSAT exhibits good skill in detecting rainy events but underestimates rainfall amount, while ARC underestimates both rainfall amount and rainy event frequency. Meanwhile, TRMM consistently performs best in detecting rainy events and capturing the mean rainfall and seasonal variability, while CMORPH tends to overdetect rainy events. Moreover, the mean difference in daily rainfall between the products and rain gauges shows increasing underestimation with increasing elevation. However, the distribution in satellite–gauge differences demon- strates that although 75% of retrievals underestimate rainfall, up to 25% overestimate rainfall over all eleva- tions. Case studies using high-resolution simulations suggest underestimation in the satellite algorithms is likely due to shallow convection with warm cloud-top temperatures in addition to beam-filling effects in microwave- based retrievals from localized convective cells. The overestimation by IR-based algorithms is attributed to nonraining cirrus with cold cloud-top temperatures. These results stress the importance of understanding re- gional precipitation systems causing uncertainties in satellite rainfall estimates with a view toward using this knowledge to improve rainfall algorithms.
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The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the chief source of tropical intra-seasonal variability, but is simulated poorly by most state-of-the-art GCMs. Common errors include a lack of eastward propagation at the correct frequency and zonal extent, and too small a ratio of eastward- to westward-propagating variability. Here it is shown that HiGEM, a high-resolution GCM, simulates a very realistic MJO with approximately the correct spatial and temporal scale. Many MJO studies in GCMs are limited to diagnostics which average over a latitude band around the equator, allowing an analysis of the MJO’s structure in time and longitude only. In this study a wider range of diagnostics is applied. It is argued that such an approach is necessary for a comprehensive analysis of a model’s MJO. The standard analysis of Wheeler and Hendon (Mon Wea Rev 132(8):1917–1932, 2004; WH04) is applied to produce composites, which show a realistic spatial structure in the MJO envelopes but for the timing of the peak precipitation in the inter-tropical convergence zone, which bifurcates the MJO signal. Further diagnostics are developed to analyse the MJO’s episodic nature and the “MJO inertia” (the tendency to remain in the same WH04 phase from one day to the next). HiGEM favours phases 2, 3, 6 and 7; has too much MJO inertia; and dies out too frequently in phase 3. Recent research has shown that a key feature of the MJO is its interaction with the diurnal cycle over the Maritime Continent. This interaction is present in HiGEM but is unrealistically weak.
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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A comparison of the thermal regime and oxygen distribution patterns of some Brazilian reservoirs was made. A strong latitudinal dependence of surface temperature, annual mean and annual range was found. Except for Tucurui Reservoir, a reservoir of the Equatorial zone, the lowest surface temperature of the year in the other compared reservoirs was observed from June to August while the highest extended from October to February. The decreasing trend of annual mean temperatures and thermal ranges was due to the increasing seasonal variability of insolation with the latitude. A positive relationship between the increase on thermal surface-bottom differences and the depth of water column was found for reservoirs of similar latitudes. A long thermal stratification (around four months) was evidenced in the lacustrine zone of reservoirs with a residence time higher than 40 days. Low fluctuation (<2%) of the annual variability of heat contents was observed for the Tucurui Reservoir, while in das Garcas Reservoir a manmade lake located in the frontier between tropical and temperate regions, the annual coefficient of variation attained 13%. Concerning the heat budgets, the value for the Tucurui Reservoir was two times higher than in das Garcas Reservoir. Both the morphometric and climatological factors affected the heat contents of the two compared reservoirs. In deep eutrophic reservoirs, a significant reduction on the oxygen concentrations in the hypolimnetic zone was frequently observed. In some oligotrophic stratified reservoirs, a decrease on oxygen with depth occurred when the temperature of the hypolimnion was higher than 20 degrees C and caused a biochemical oxygen demand. In das Garcas Reservoir, the actual oxygen deficits ranged from 0.40 to 1.52 mg.O-2.cm(-2) and appear to be linked to oxygen consumption after the senescence of Microcystis aeruginosa populations in the spring. But, other factors such as the allochthonous loads of organic matter also had an important role on the oxygen balance of das Garcas Reservoir.
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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Seasonal variability in the major soluble ion composition of atmospheric particulate matter in the principal sugar cane growing region of central São Paulo State indicates that pre-harvest burning of sugar cane plants is an important influence on the regional scale aerosol chemistry. Samples of particulate matter were collected between April 1999 and February 2001 in coarse (> 3.5 mum) and fine (< 3.5 mum) fractions, and analysed for HCOO-, CH3COO-, C2C42-, SO42- . Results indicated that the principal sources of the aerosols investigated NO3-, Cl-, Na+, K+, NH4+, Mg2+ and Ca2+ were local or regional in nature (scale of tens to a few hundreds of km), and that differences between air masses of varying origins were small. Fine particles were typically acidic, containing secondary nitrates, sulphates and organic species. Coarse fraction concentrations were mainly influenced by physical parameters (wind speed, movement of vehicles and surface condition) affecting rates of re-suspension, although secondary nitrate and sulphate were also present in the larger particles.Concentrations of all measured species except sodium and chloride were higher during the burning season. Although concentrations were lower than often found in polluted urban environments, the massive increases during much of the year, due to a single anthropogenic activity (sugar cane burning) are indicative of a very large perturbation of the lower troposphere in the region relative to the natural condition. These aerosols are suspected of promoting respiratory disease. They also represent an important mechanism for the tropospheric transport of species relevant to surface acidification (sulphates, nitrates, ammonium and organic acids) and soil nutrient status (potassium, nitrogen, ammonium, calcium), so their impact on fragile natural ecosystems (following deposition) needs to be considered. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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The absence of natural enemies often allows exotic pests to reach densities that are much higher than normally occur in their native habitats. When Solenopsis fire ants were introduced into the United States, their numerous natural enemies were left behind in South America. To compare intercontinental fire ant densities, we selected 13 areas in South America and another 12 areas in North America. Sample areas were paired with weather stations and distributed across a broad range of climatic conditions. In each area, we measured fire ant densities at 5 preselected roadside sites that were at least 5 km apart. At each site, we also measured foraging activity, checked for polygyne colonies, and recorded various kinds of environmental data. In most areas, we also measured fire ant densities in lawns and grazing land. Fire ant populations along roadsides in North America were 4-7 times higher than fire ant populations in South America. Similar intercontinental differences were found in lawns and on grazing lands. These intercontinental differences in fire ant abundance were not associated with sampling conditions, seasonal variability, habitat differences, or the frequency of polygyny. Although several correlations were found with long-term weather conditions, careful inspection of the data suggests that these correlations were probably more coincidental than causal. Cultural differences in roadside maintenance may explain some of the intercontinental differences in fire ant abundance, but they did not account for equivalent intercontinental differences in grazing land and mowed lawns. Bait tests showed that competition with other ants was much more important in South America; however, we were not able to determine whether this was a major cause of intercontinental differences or largely a consequence of other factors such as the numerous pathogens and parasites that are found in South America. Because this study was correlational, we were unable to determine the cause(s) of the large intercontinental difference in fire ant abundance that we observed. However, we were able to largely exclude a number of possible explanations for the differences, including sampling, season, polygyny, climate, and aspects of habitat. By a process of elimination, escape from natural enemies remains among the most likely explanations for the unusually high densities of fire ants found in North America.
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In the autumn the vas deferens of the Italian variety of domestic quail appeared as a single, thin, and straight duct along its total extension. Thus, transversal histologic sections of this duct showed a circular tubular shape. The pseudoestratified columnar epithelium that lined the vas deferens presented longitudinal folds which invaded the lumen frequently empty of spermatozoa. Although in the winter, spring and summer the usual morphological appearance of the quail's vas deferens was seen as a highly coiling duct. So, each transversal histologic section of the vas deferens, in all the segments, showed parallel cut sections of the duct being irregular in shape and variable in number and interconnected by the adventitial loose connective tissue. In these observations, the tubular lumen was totally performed by spermatozoa and seminal fluid. Consequently, with previous base on the testis kinetics of the Italian quail variety, it was concluded that the spermatozoa production, followed by emission, storage and ejaculation of spermatozoa through the vas deferens did not stop during the winter, spring and summer, but ceased in the autumn the quiescent phase of the circannual reproductive cycle in this bird.
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Forecast of biological consequences of climate changes depend on both long-term observations and the establishment of carbon budgets within pelagic ecosystems, including the assessment of biomasses and activities of all players in the global carbon cycle. Approximately 25% of oceanic primary happen over continental shelves, so these are important sites for studies of global carbon dynamics. The Brazilian Continental Shelf (BCS) has sparse and non-systematic in situ information on phytoplankton biomass, making products derived from ocean color remote sensing extremely valuable. This work analyzes chlorophyll concentration (Chl) estimated from four ocean color sensors (CZCS, OCTS, SeaWiFS and MODIS) over the BCS, to compare Chl and annual cycles meridionally. Also, useful complementary ocean color variables are presented. Chl gradients increased from the central region towards north and south, limited by estuarine plumes of Amazon and La Plata rivers, and clear annual Chl cycles appear in most areas. In southern and central areas, annual cycles show strong seasonal variability while interannual and long-term variability are equally important in the remaining areas. This is the first comparative evaluation of the Chl over the BCS and will aid the understanding of its long-term variability; essential initial step for discussions of climate changes.
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Pós-graduação em Geografia - IGCE
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Estuários são ambientes ricos em nutrientes, favorecendo a reprodução e desenvolvimento de diversas espécies. Nestes, o fitoplâncton representa uma considerável parcela da produção primária e, em conjunto com outros fatores, regula os níveis de produtividade biológica. Este estudo teve o objetivo de conhecer a dinâmica do microfitoplâncton e sua correlação com os fatores ambientais no estuário do rio Guajará-mirim, na cidade de Vigia- PA, que é um importante pólo pesqueiro do estado do Pará. Foram realizadas coletas bimestrais de fitoplâncton e parâmetros físico-químicos em quatro estações de coleta ao longo do estuário, durante os períodos de maré vazante e enchente. Foram determinadas a composição específica e densidade do microfitoplâncton (org.L-1) e realizadas análises de frequência de ocorrência, diversidade e equitabilidade, agrupamento e componentes principais (ACP). Sazonalmente, nota-se, principalmente durante a maré vazante, uma considerável variação dos parâmetros físico-químicos que está fortemente relacionada ao ciclo hidrológico da região. Foram registrados 78 táxons pertencentes às Divisões Bacillariophyta (65), Chlorophyta (6), Cyanophyta (3), Dinophyta (3), e Ochrophyta (1). A divisão Bacillariophyta foi predominante em numero de espécies, frequência de ocorrência e densidade (99,89%). A densidade média mensal do microfitoplâncton variou de 9.999 (julho) a 535.411 org. L-1 (janeiro). Durante o mês de janeiro ocorreu uma floração de Skeletonema costatum (máx = 1.996.613 org. L-1). A comunidade microfitoplanctônica caracterizou-se como de diversidade média (média geral anual = 2,40). A variação sazonal dos parâmetros físico-químicos e da densidade das espécies foi o fator preponderante no agrupamento de amostras, tendo se formado dois grandes grupos, o primeiro composto por amostras do período chuvoso e o segundo grupo composto por amostras do período de estiagem. A análise de componentes principais mostrou que, apesar de os parâmetros físico-químicos apresentarem baixa variabilidade espacial e sazonal, a variação do índice de pluviosidade, do teor de sólidos totais dissolvidos e da salinidade foi determinante na variação da densidade de grande parte das espécies e também favoreceu um leve aumento da diversidade no período de estiagem.
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No presente trabalho foram estudadas as variações da condutância estomática (gs) para o período chuvoso (março) e seco (agosto) do ano de 2003, e suas relações de dependência com algumas variáveis meteorológicas medidas em um ecossistema de manguezal amazônico. As informações utilizadas foram do projeto ECOBIOMA, parte integrante do Experimento de Grande Escala da Biosfera-Atmosfera da Amazônia (LBA). A gs acompanha a tendência de variação do balanço de radiação, atingindo valores máximos durante o dia e mínimos durante a noite. A condutância apresentou maiores flutuações no período chuvoso, com valor médio de gs = 0,015 m s-1, porém com magnitudes inferiores as do período seco. Durante a época seca apresentou um valor médio de gs = 0,027 m s-1, com menor amplitude, variando de 0,010 < gs < 0,042 m s-1. As variáveis meteorológicas utilizadas para o estabelecimento de relações de dependência com a variabilidade diária de gs foram déficit de umidade específica (δq), déficit de pressão de vapor (DPV), saldo de radiação (Rn) e velocidade do vento (Vv). O DPV apresentou as melhores correlações com a gs sendo o R2 = 0,99 em ambos os períodos. Apesar de também ser importante nas trocas gasosas entre a vegetação e a atmosfera, a Vv apresentou a menor influência na variação média da gs, com um R2 = 0,44 para época chuvosa e R2 =0,51 para o período seco.