Divergences in the Long Run Trends in the Price of Energy and of Energy Services

32 p.

Building up a frequency stabilisation based on a wavemeter for a diode laser and characterisation for a digital mirror device for artificial potentials

It has built and characterised a laser and It has learned what each of the components does. It has been able to run the laser in single-mode and stabilised it around a desired setpoint thanks to a PID controller that It has programmed. It has established a communication between the PID controller programmed in LabVIEW and Arduino Due, the DAC that It has chosen after comparing it with another candidate. It has learned some basics of how the LightCrafter 4500 DMD works. The projected light is the composition of the lights of three LED’s, each of which has a certain on-time. The mirrors chose to be in on- or off-stages depending to the amount of intensity that we want for each colour.

How to run successful e-internships: a case for organizational learning.

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to outline unique learning experience that virtual/e-internships can offer small and medium-sized enterprises and start-up organizations. Design/methodology/approach – We interviewed 18 experts on e-internships (interns and managers of internships) across several countries to learn more about the learning experiences for both organizations and interns. The information from these interviews was also used to formulate a number of recommendations. Findings – The interviews provided insights into how e-internships can provide development opportunities for interns, managers and staff within these organizations. One important benefit pertains to the skill development of both interns and managers. The interns get unique working experiences that also benefit the organizations in terms of their creativity, input and feedback. In return, managers get a unique learning experience that helps them expand their project management skills, interpersonal skills and mentoring. Practical implications – We outline a number of recommendations that consider skill development, the benefit of diversity in numerous forms as well as mutual benefits for enterprises and start-ups. Originality/value – The discussion of the various benefits and conditions under which virtual internships will succeed in organizations provide practitioners an insight into the organizational opportunities available to them given the right investment into e-interns and internship schemes.

Is China's fifth-largest inland lake to dry-up? Incorporated hydrological and satellite-based methods for forecasting Hulun Lake water levels

Hulun Lake, China’s fifth-largest inland lake, experienced severe declines in water level in the period of 2000-2010. This has prompted concerns whether the lake is drying up gradually. A multi-million US dollar engineering project to construct a water channel to transfer part of the river flow from a nearby river to maintain the water level was completed in August 2010. This study aimed to advance the understanding of the key processes controlling the lake water level variation over the last five decades, as well as investigate the impact of the river transfer engineering project on the water level. A water balance model was developed to investigate the lake water level variations over the last five decades, using hydrological and climatic data as well as satellite-based measurements and results from land surface modelling. The investigation reveals that the severe reduction of river discharge (- 364±64 mm/yr, ~70% of the five-decade average) into the lake was the key factor behind the decline of the lake water level between 2000 and 2010. The decline of river discharge was due to the reduction of total runoff from the lake watershed. This was a result of the reduction of soil moisture due to the decrease of precipitation (-49±45 mm/yr) over this period. The water budget calculation suggests that the groundwater component from the surrounding lake area as well as surface run off from the un-gauged area surrounding the lake contributed ~ net 210 Mm3/yr (equivalent to ~ 100 mm/yr) water inflows into the lake. The results also show that the water diversion project did prevent a further water level decline of over 0.5 m by the end of 2012. Overall, the monthly water balance model gave an excellent prediction of the lake water level fluctuation over the last five decades and can be a useful tool to manage lake water resources in the future.

The demand for labor: An analysis using matched employer-employee data from the German LIAB. Will the high unskilled worker own-wage elasticity please stand up?

This paper uses matched employee-employer LIAB data to provide panel estimates of the structure of labor demand in western Germany, 1993-2002, distinguishing between highly skilled, skilled, and unskilled labor and between the manufacturing and service sectors. Reflecting current preoccupations, our demand analysis seeks also to accommodate the impact of technology and trade in addition to wages. The bottom-line interests are to provide elasticities of the demand for unskilled (and other) labor that should assist in short-run policy design and to identify the extent of skill biases or otherwise in trade and technology.

Is China's fifth-largest inland lake to dry-up? Incorporated hydrological and satellite-based methods for forecasting Hulun Lake water levels

Hulun Lake, China's fifth-largest inland lake, experienced severe declines in water level in the period of 2000-2010. This has prompted concerns whether the lake is drying up gradually. A multi-million US dollar engineering project to construct a water channel to transfer part of the river flow from a nearby river to maintain the water level was completed in August 2010. This study aimed to advance the understanding of the key processes controlling the lake water level variation over the last five decades, as well as investigate the impact of the river transfer engineering project on the water level. A water balance model was developed to investigate the lake water level variations over the last five decades, using hydrological and climatic data as well as satellite-based measurements and results from land surface modelling. The investigation reveals that the severe reduction of river discharge (-364±64 mm/yr, ∼70% of the five-decade average) into the lake was the key factor behind the decline of the lake water level between 2000 and 2010. The decline of river discharge was due to the reduction of total runoff from the lake watershed. This was a result of the reduction of soil moisture due to the decrease of precipitation (-49±45 mm/yr) over this period. The water budget calculation suggests that the groundwater component from the surrounding lake area as well as surface run off from the un-gauged area surrounding the lake contributed ∼ net 210 Mm3/yr (equivalent to ∼ 100 mm/yr) water inflows into the lake. The results also show that the water diversion project did prevent a further water level decline of over 0.5 m by the end of 2012. Overall, the monthly water balance model gave an excellent prediction of the lake water level fluctuation over the last five decades and can be a useful tool to manage lake water resources in the future.

Energy saving innovations, non-exhaustible sources of energy and long-run: what would happen if we run out of oil?

We formulate and solve a model of factor saving technological improvement considering three factors of production: labor, capital and energy. The productive activities have three main characteristics: first, in order to use capital goods firms need energy; second, there are two sources of energy: non-exhaustible and exhaustible; third, capital goods can be of different qualities and the quality of these goods can be changed along two dimensions -reducing the need of energy or changing the source of energy used in the production process. The economy goes through three stages of development after industrialization. In the first, firms make use of exhaustible energy and the e¢ ciency in the use of energy is constant. In the second stage, as the price of energy grows the e¢ ciency in its use is increased. In the third stage, the price of exhaustible sources is so high that firms have incentives to use non-exhaustible sources of energy. During this stage the price of energy is constant. In this set up, the end of the oil age has level effects on consumption and output but it does not cause the collapse of the economic system.

The case for REITs in the mixed-asset portfolio in the short and long run

The poor performance of the Stock Market in the US up to the middle of 2003 has meant that REITs are increasingly been seen as an attractive addition to the mixed-asset portfolio. However, there is little evidence to indicate the consistency of the role REITs should play a role in the mixed-asset portfolio over different investment horizons. The results highlight that REITs do play a significant role over both different time horizons and holding periods. The findings show that REITs attractiveness as a diversification asset increase as the holding period increases. In addition, their diversification qualities span the entire efficient frontier, providing return enhancement properties at the lower end, switching to risk reduction qualities at the top end of the frontier.

The Schenberg data acquisition and analysis: results from its first commissioning run

The Mario Schenberg gravitational wave detector has started its commissioning phase at the Physics Institute of the University of Sao Paulo. We have collected almost 200 h of data from the instrument in order to check out its behavior and performance. We have also been developing a data acquisition system for it under a VXI System. Such a system is composed of an analog-to-digital converter and a GPS receiver for time synchronization. We have been building the software that controls and sets up the data acquisition. Here we present an overview of the Mario Schenberg detector and its data acquisition system, some results from the first commissioning run and solutions for some problems we have identified.

Weighing it up : thinking about the implications of school based obesity prevention initiatives

In this paper we explore the tensions that exist between two health promotion discourses prevalent in school based Health Education. We use one example from a widely used curriculum resource and one classroom episode to explore discourses related to obesity prevention, often described as an obesity epidemic by media and health professionals alike. Our argument is that these discourses work to produce the 'unhealthy other' that everyone is then in danger of becoming and in the process produce moral judgements and reinforce stereotypes about overweight and obese people. In so doing they run counter to health education and other discourses that seek to promote self-esteem and body acceptance in students no matter what their shape and size.

Feature reduction to speed up malware classification

In statistical classification work, one method of speeding up the process is to use only a small percentage of the total parameter set available. In this paper, we apply this technique both to the classification of malware and the identification of malware from a set combined with cleanware. In order to demonstrate the usefulness of our method, we use the same sets of malware and cleanware as in an earlier paper. Using the statistical technique Information Gain (IG), we reduce the set of features used in the experiment from 7,605 to just over 1,000. The best accuracy obtained in the former paper using 7,605 features is 97.3% for malware versus cleanware detection and 97.4% for malware family classification; on the reduced feature set, we obtain a (best) accuracy of 94.6% on the malware versus cleanware test and 94.5% on the malware classification test. An interesting feature of the new tests presented here is the reduction in false negative rates by a factor of about 1/3 when compared with the results of the earlier paper. In addition, the speed with which our tests run is reduced by a factor of approximately 3/5 from the times posted for the original paper. The small loss in accuracy and improved false negative rate along with significant improvement in speed indicate that feature reduction should be further pursued as a tool to prevent algorithms from becoming intractable due to too much data.

Three year follow-up of an early childhood intervention : is movement skill sustained?

Background
Movement skill competence (e.g. the ability to throw, run and kick) is a potentially important physical activity determinant. However, little is known about the long-term impact of interventions to improve movement skills in early childhood. This study aimed to determine whether intervention preschool children were still more skill proficient than controls three years after a 10 month movement skill focused intervention: ‘Tooty Fruity Vegie in Preschools’.

Methods
Children from 18 intervention and 13 control preschools in NSW, Australia were assessed at ages four (Time1), five (T2) and eight years (T3) for locomotor (run, gallop, hop, leap, horizontal jump, slide) and object control proficiency (strike, bounce, catch, kick, overhand throw, underhand roll) using the Test of Gross Motor Development-2. Multi-level object control and locomotor regression models were fitted with variables time, intervention (yes/no) and a time*intervention interaction. Both models added sex of child and retained if significant, in which case interactions of sex of child with other variables were modelled and retained. SPSS (Version 17.0) was used.

Results
Overall follow-up rate was 29% (163/560). Of the 137 students used in the regression models, 53% were female (n = 73). Intervention girls maintained their object control skill advantage in comparison to controls at T3 (p = .002), but intervention boys did not (p = .591). At T3, there were no longer intervention/control differences in locomotor skill (p = .801).

Conclusion
Early childhood settings should implement movement skill interventions and more intensively target girls and object control skills.

The market strategies alternatives of an e-business start-up in Brazil

The e-business market is one of the fastest growing markets in Brazil, with e-business sales accounting for BRL 14.8 billion in 2010 and a growth of 40% per year (+1000% over the past 7 years). Sales-event clubs and collective bargaining websites are one of the most dynamic segments of the e-business market: the number of new players is increasing rapidly, with over 1200 collective bargaining websites currently operating in Brazil. In that context, growth and differentiation seem to be two key success factors for Coquelux. According to webshopper (23rd Edition, e-bit), growth can be achieved by targeting middle and low-income consumers from class C, who represent 50% of the total e-commerce sales. But Coquelux, which is specialized in desire and luxury brands, has built its reputation and competitive advantage through its “exclusivity”, by targeting wealthier consumers from classes A and B who are attracted by its fashionable and high-end positioning. The evolution (growth?) of this market and the development of its competition naturally raise a strategic question for Coquelux’s managers: can Coquelux grow and still maintain its competitive advantage? Should it grow by expanding its consumer base to class C? If so, how? Consumers from classes A, B or C must be targeted through the same online communication channels. Recent studies from the ABEP/ABIPEME emphasized the importance of social networks as a tool for converting new clients and gaining their loyalty, regardless of their social class. However, high-income and low-income e-consumers do not have the same consumption habits, do not respond to the same type of marketing strategies, and most importantly, do not share the same values. Thus, it seems difficult to expand Coquelux’s consumer base to class C without changing its marketing strategies and altering its image Three options were identified for Coquelux: reinforcing its leadership on the luxury segment and focusing on a small niche market (1), which would threaten its survival in the long run; completely changing its strategy and competing for a mass market through commercial brands (2), which requires major financial investments that managers don’t have access to; or finding an intermediary solution (3). This thesis’ recommendation for the third option consists in focusing on premium brands (rather than luxury) in order to increase sales volume (Coquelux’s most profitable sales happened with local desire brands) with products that appeal to class B but also attract the emerging class C which is looking for brand recognition. It could thus implement a slow entry strategy towards the mass market without damaging its main competitive advantage.

Forecasting Multivariate Time Series under Present-Value-Model Short- and Long-run Co-movement Restrictions

This paper has two original contributions. First, we show that the present value model (PVM hereafter), which has a wide application in macroeconomics and fi nance, entails common cyclical feature restrictions in the dynamics of the vector error-correction representation (Vahid and Engle, 1993); something that has been already investigated in that VECM context by Johansen and Swensen (1999, 2011) but has not been discussed before with this new emphasis. We also provide the present value reduced rank constraints to be tested within the log-linear model. Our second contribution relates to forecasting time series that are subject to those long and short-run reduced rank restrictions. The reason why appropriate common cyclical feature restrictions might improve forecasting is because it finds natural exclusion restrictions preventing the estimation of useless parameters, which would otherwise contribute to the increase of forecast variance with no expected reduction in bias. We applied the techniques discussed in this paper to data known to be subject to present value restrictions, i.e. the online series maintained and up-dated by Shiller. We focus on three different data sets. The fi rst includes the levels of interest rates with long and short maturities, the second includes the level of real price and dividend for the S&P composite index, and the third includes the logarithmic transformation of prices and dividends. Our exhaustive investigation of several different multivariate models reveals that better forecasts can be achieved when restrictions are applied to them. Moreover, imposing short-run restrictions produce forecast winners 70% of the time for target variables of PVMs and 63.33% of the time when all variables in the system are considered.

Morphological and luminescent studies on nanosized Er, Yb-Yttrium oxide up-converter prepared from different precursors

In this paper, we report luminescent and morphological studies with yttrium oxide samples doped with ytterbium and erbium. The samples were prepared by the combustion method and also from different precursors: oxalate, basic carbonate and polymeric resin. All powders were identified Lis being an yttrium oxide with a C-form structure, independent of the employed precursor. From mean crystallite size measurements, it was verified that oxides prepared through the polymeric precursor and combustion methods lead to the smallest crystallite size. Particle shape and size were investigated by SEM and TEM, and showed that both the oxalate precursor and the combustion methods do not provide oxide materials of suitable shape or size, on the other hand. The basic carbonate and polymeric precursors resulted in spherically shaped particles with an average diameter of 90 and 15 run. respectively, Upon 980 run diode laser excitation, green and red emission lines were detected for all samples and were assigned to the H-2(11/2) S-4(3/2) -> I-4(15/2) and (4)Fg(9/2) -> 4I(15/12) transitions, respectively. Such transitions are characteristic for Er3+ and result from energy transfer from Yb3+ energy levels, F-2(7/2) -> F-2(5/2). A relationship between the decrease in the mean crystallite size and the enhancement in red emission was also established as well as the influence of the presence of a high percentage of Yb-3 Both factors promote ET from Yb3+ (F-2(5/2)) to Er3+ (I-4(11/2)). (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.