Climate change impact on biodiversity in Switzerland: a review. Journal for Nature Conservation

A noticeable increase in mean temperature has already been observed in Switzerland and summer temperatures up to 4.8 K warmer are expected by 2090. This article reviews the observed impacts of climate change on biodiversity and consider some perspectives for the future at the national level. The following impacts are already evident for all considered taxonomic groups: elevation shifts of distribution toward mountain summits, spread of thermophilous species, colonisation by new species from warmer areas and phenological shifts. Additionally, in the driest areas, increasing droughts are affecting tree survival and fish species are suffering from warm temperatures in lowland regions. These observations are coherent with model projections, and future changes will probably follow the current trends. These changes will likely cause extinctions for alpine species (competition, loss of habitat) and lowland species (temperature or drought stress). In the very urbanised Swiss landscape, the high fragmentation of the natural ecosystems will hinder the dispersal of many species towards mountains. Moreover, disruptions in species interactions caused by individual migration rates or phenological shifts are likely to have consequences for biodiversity. Conversely, the inertia of the ecosystems (species longevity, restricted dispersal) and the local persistence of populations will probably result in lower extinction rates than expected with some models, at least in 21st century. It is thus very difficult to estimate the impact of climate change in terms of species extinctions. A greater recognition by society of the intrinsic value of biodiversity and of its importance for our existence will be essential to put in place effective mitigation measures and to safeguard a maximum number of native species.

Symmetry-breaking in cumulative measures of shapes of polymer models.

Using numerical simulations we investigate shapes of random equilateral open and closed chains, one of the simplest models of freely fluctuating polymers in a solution. We are interested in the 3D density distribution of the modeled polymers where the polymers have been aligned with respect to their three principal axes of inertia. This type of approach was pioneered by Theodorou and Suter in 1985. While individual configurations of the modeled polymers are almost always nonsymmetric, the approach of Theodorou and Suter results in cumulative shapes that are highly symmetric. By taking advantage of asymmetries within the individual configurations, we modify the procedure of aligning independent configurations in a way that shows their asymmetry. This approach reveals, for example, that the 3D density distribution for linear polymers has a bean shape predicted theoretically by Kuhn. The symmetry-breaking approach reveals complementary information to the traditional, symmetrical, 3D density distributions originally introduced by Theodorou and Suter.

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The chapter provides an account of the changing role played by active labour market policies (ALMPs) in Europe since the post-war years. Focusing on six countries (Sweden, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom), it shows that the role of ALMPs is related to the broad economic situation. At times of rapid expansion and labour shortage, like the 1950s and 1960s, their key objective was to upskill the workforce. After the oil shocks of the 1970s, the raison d'être of ALMPs shifted from economic to social policy, and since the mid-1990s, we see the development of a new function, well captured by the notion of activation, which refers to the strengthening of work incentives and the removal of obstacles to employment, mostly for low-skilled people. The adequacy between economic context and policy is not always optimal, though. Like other ones, this policy domain suffers from inertia, with the result that the countries that have led the way in one period have more difficulty adapting to the economic conditions prevailing in the following one.

A unified approach for representing rows and columns in contingency tables

By using suitable parameters, we present a uni¯ed aproach for describing four methods for representing categorical data in a contingency table. These methods include:correspondence analysis (CA), the alternative approach using Hellinger distance (HD),the log-ratio (LR) alternative, which is appropriate for compositional data, and theso-called non-symmetrical correspondence analysis (NSCA). We then make an appropriate comparison among these four methods and some illustrative examples are given.Some approaches based on cumulative frequencies are also linked and studied usingmatrices.Key words: Correspondence analysis, Hellinger distance, Non-symmetrical correspondence analysis, log-ratio analysis, Taguchi inertia

The Persistence of Inflation in OECDCountries: a Fractionally Integrated Approach

The statistical properties of inflation and, in particular, its degree of persistence and stability over time is a subject of intense debate and no consensus has been achieved yet. The goal of this paper is to analyze this controversy using a general approach, with the aim of providing a plausible explanation for the existing contradictory results. We consider the inflation rates of 21 OECD countries which are modelled as fractionally integrated (FI) processes. First, we show analytically that FI can appear in inflation rates after aggregating individual prices from firms that face different costs of adjusting their prices. Then, we provide robust empirical evidence supporting the FI hypothesis using both classical and Bayesian techniques. Next, we estimate impulse response functions and other scalar measures of persistence, achieving an accurate picture of this property and its variation across countries. It is shown that the application of some popular tools for measuring persistence, such as the sum of the AR coefficients, could lead to erroneous conclusions if fractional integration is present. Finally, we explore the existence of changes in inflation inertia using a novel approach. We conclude that the persistence of inflation is very high (although non-permanent) in most post-industrial countries and that it has remained basically unchanged over the last four decades.

Real wage rigidities and the new Keynesian model

Most central banks perceive a trade-off between stabilizing inflation and stabilizing the gap between output and desired output. However, the standard new Keynesian framework implies no such trade-off. In that framework, stabilizing inflation is equivalent to stabilizing the welfare-relevant output gap. In this paper, we argue that this property of the new Keynesian framework, which we call the divine coincidence, is due to a special feature of the model: the absence of non trivial real imperfections.We focus on one such real imperfection, namely, real wage rigidities. When the baseline new Keynesian model is extended to allow for real wage rigidities, the divine coincidence disappears, and central banks indeed face a trade-off between stabilizing inflation and stabilizing the welfare-relevant output gap. We show that not only does the extended model have more realistic normative implications, but it also has appealing positive properties. In particular, it provides a natural interpretation for the dynamic inflation-unemployment relation found in the data.

A dynamic choice model of hybrid behavior in the attribute-space

This paper presents a dynamic choice model in the attributespace considering rational consumers that discount the future. In lightof the evidence of several state-dependence patterns, the model isfurther extended by considering a utility function that allows for thedifferent types of behavior described in the literature: pure inertia,pure variety seeking and hybrid. The model presents a stationaryconsumption pattern that can be inertial, where the consumer only buysone product, or a variety-seeking one, where the consumer buys severalproducts simultane-ously. Under the inverted-U marginal utilityassumption, the consumer behaves inertial among the existing brands forseveral periods, and eventually, once the stationary levels areapproached, the consumer turns to a variety-seeking behavior. An empiricalanalysis is run using a scanner database for fabric softener andsignificant evidence of hybrid behavior for most attributes is found,which supports the functional form considered in the theory.

The persistence of inflation in OECD countries: A fractionally integrated approach

The statistical properties of inflation and, in particular, its degree of persistence and stability over time is a subject of intense debate and no consensus has been achieved yet. The goal of this paper is to analyze this controversy using a general approach, with the aim of providing a plausible explanation for the existing contradictory results. We consider the inflation rates of 21 OECD countries which are modelled as fractionally integrated (FI) processes. First, we show analytically that FI can appear in inflation rates after aggregating individual prices from firms that face different costs of adjusting their prices. Then, we provide robust empirical evidence supporting the FI hypothesis using both classical and Bayesian techniques. Next, we estimate impulse response functions and other scalar measures of persistence, achieving an accurate picture of this property and its variation across countries. It is shown that the application of some popular tools for measuring persistence, such as the sum of the AR coefficients, could lead to erroneous conclusions if fractional integration is present. Finally, we explore the existence of changes in inflation inertia using a novel approach. We conclude that the persistence of inflation is very high (although non-permanent) in most post-industrial countries and that it has remained basically unchanged over the last four decades.

Hybrid consumption paths in the attribute space: A model and application with scanner data

This paper presents and estimates a dynamic choice model in the attribute space considering rational consumers. In light of the evidence of several state-dependence patterns, the standard attribute-based model is extended by considering a general utility function where pure inertia and pure variety-seeking behaviors can be explained in the model as particular linear cases. The dynamics of the model are fully characterized by standard dynamic programming techniques. The model presents a stationary consumption pattern that can be inertial, where the consumer only buys one product, or a variety-seeking one, where the consumer shifts among varied products.We run some simulations to analyze the consumption paths out of the steady state. Underthe hybrid utility assumption, the consumer behaves inertially among the unfamiliar brandsfor several periods, eventually switching to a variety-seeking behavior when the stationary levels are approached. An empirical analysis is run using scanner databases for three different product categories: fabric softener, saltine cracker, and catsup. Non-linear specifications provide the best fit of the data, as hybrid functional forms are found in all the product categories for most attributes and segments. These results reveal the statistical superiority of the non-linear structure and confirm the gradual trend to seek variety as the level of familiarity with the purchased items increases.

Computation of multiple correspondence analysis, with code in R

The generalization of simple correspondence analysis, for two categorical variables, to multiple correspondence analysis where they may be three or more variables, is not straighforward, both from a mathematical and computational point of view. In this paper we detail the exact computational steps involved in performing a multiple correspondence analysis, including the special aspects of adjusting the principal inertias to correct the percentages of inertia, supplementary points and subset analysis. Furthermore, we give the algorithm for joint correspondence analysis where the cross-tabulations of all unique pairs of variables are analysed jointly. The code in the R language for every step of the computations is given, as well as the results of each computation.

Congruences between modular forms and lowering the level mod l^n

In this article we study the behavior of inertia groups for modularGalois mod l^n representations and in some cases we give a generalizationof Ribet s lowering the level result (cf. [Rib90]).

Estandarización de la captura por unidad de esfuerzo (CPUE) de la flota industrial de cerco del stock norte-centro de la anchoveta peruana (Engraulis ringens Jenyns)

Se trabajó utilizando una metodología basada en Modelos Lineales Generalizados (MLG). La CPUE fue expresada en toneladas por duración de viaje. Las variables explicativas utilizadas fueron el año, mes, capacidad de bodega, latitud, inercia espacial y distancia a la costa. El modelo tuvo un coeficiente de determinación de 0,485, explicando casi la mitad de la variabilidad de la CPUE observada. La variable con mayor influencia en el modelo fue la capacidad de bodega (49% de la varianza explicada), debido posiblemente a que la flota anchovetera posee una capacidad elevada de captura y que los recursos pelágicos tienden a hiper-agregarse, incluso cuando están siendo fuertemente explotados. La correlación entre la CPUE estandarizada y biomasa estimada por un modelo de captura a la edad (r=0,74) indica que el método basado en MLG es recomendable para la estandarización de la CPUE. Se propone a esta CPUE como una alternativa para monitorear la biomasa de la anchoveta.

Geographical and temporal body size variation in a reptile: roles of sex, ecology, phylogeny and ecology structured in phylogeny.

Geographical body size variation has long interested evolutionary biologists, and a range of mechanisms have been proposed to explain the observed patterns. It is considered to be more puzzling in ectotherms than in endotherms, and integrative approaches are necessary for testing non-exclusive alternative mechanisms. Using lacertid lizards as a model, we adopted an integrative approach, testing different hypotheses for both sexes while incorporating temporal, spatial, and phylogenetic autocorrelation at the individual level. We used data on the Spanish Sand Racer species group from a field survey to disentangle different sources of body size variation through environmental and individual genetic data, while accounting for temporal and spatial autocorrelation. A variation partitioning method was applied to separate independent and shared components of ecology and phylogeny, and estimated their significance. Then, we fed-back our models by controlling for relevant independent components. The pattern was consistent with the geographical Bergmann's cline and the experimental temperature-size rule: adults were larger at lower temperatures (and/or higher elevations). This result was confirmed with additional multi-year independent data-set derived from the literature. Variation partitioning showed no sex differences in phylogenetic inertia but showed sex differences in the independent component of ecology; primarily due to growth differences. Interestingly, only after controlling for independent components did primary productivity also emerge as an important predictor explaining size variation in both sexes. This study highlights the importance of integrating individual-based genetic information, relevant ecological parameters, and temporal and spatial autocorrelation in sex-specific models to detect potentially important hidden effects. Our individual-based approach devoted to extract and control for independent components was useful to reveal hidden effects linked with alternative non-exclusive hypothesis, such as those of primary productivity. Also, including measurement date allowed disentangling and controlling for short-term temporal autocorrelation reflecting sex-specific growth plasticity.

Tying up the loose ends in simple correspondence analysis

Although correspondence analysis is now widely available in statistical software packages and applied in a variety of contexts, notably the social and environmental sciences, there are still some misconceptions about this method as well as unresolved issues which remain controversial to this day. In this paper we hope to settle these matters, namely (i) the way CA measures variance in a two-way table and how to compare variances between tables of different sizes, (ii) the influence, or rather lack of influence, of outliers in the usual CA maps, (iii) the scaling issue and the biplot interpretation of maps,(iv) whether or not to rotate a solution, and (v) statistical significance of results.

Effects of prior repeated-sprints with different recovery duration on oxygen uptake kinetics during subsequent heavy-exercise

Introduction: Prior repeated-sprints (6) has become an interesting method to resolve the debate surrounding the principal factors that limits the oxygen uptake (V'O2) kinetics at the onset of exercise [i.e., muscle O2 delivery (5) or metabolic inertia (3)]. The aim of this study was to compare the effects of two repeated-sprints sets of 6x6s separated by different recovery duration between the sprints on V'O2 and muscular de-oxygenation [HHb] kinetics during a subsequent heavy-intensity exercise. Methods: 10 male subjects performed a 6-min constant-load cycling test (T50) at intensity corresponding to half of the difference between V'O2max and the ventilatory threshold. Then, they performed two repeated-sprints sets of 6x6s all-out separated by different recovery duration between the sprints (S1:30s and S2:3min) followed, after 7-min-recovery, by the T50 (S1T50 and S2T50, respectively). V'O2, [HHb] of the vastus lateralis (VL) and surface electromyography activity [i.e., root-mean-square (RMS) and the median frequency of the power density spectrum (MDF)] from VL and vastus medialis (VM) were recorded throughout T50. Models using a bi-exponential function for the overall T50 and a mono-exponential for the first 90s of T50 were used to define V'O2 and [HHb] kinetics respectively. Results: V'O2 mean value was higher in S1 (2.9±0.3l.min-1) than in S2 (1.2±0.3l.min-1); (p<0.001). The peripheral blood flow was increased after sprints as attested by a higher basal heart rate (HRbaseline) (S1T50: +22%; S2T50: +17%; p≤0.008). Time delay [HHb] was shorter for S1T50 and S2T50 than for T50 (-22% for both; p≤0.007) whereas the mean response time of V'O2 was accelerated only after S1 (S1T50: 32.3±2.5s; S2T50: 34.4±2.6s; T50: 35.7±5.4s; p=0.031). There were no significant differences in RMS between the three conditions (p>0.05). MDF of VM was higher during the first 3-min in S1T50 than in T50 (+6%; p≤0.05). Conclusion: The study show that V'O2 kinetics was speeded by prior repeated-sprints with a short (30s) but not a long (3min) inter-sprints-recovery even though the [HHb] kinetics was accelerated and the peripheral blood flow was enhanced after both sprints. S1, inducing a greater PCr depletion (1) and change in the pattern of the fibres recruitment (increase in MDF) compared with S2, may decrease metabolic inertia (2), stimulate the oxidative phosphorylation activation (4) and accelerate V'O2 kinetics at the beginning of the subsequent high-intensity exercise.