Anticipating future risk in social-ecological systems using fuzzy cognitive mapping: the case of wildfire in the Chiquitania, Bolivia

Understanding complex social-ecological systems, and anticipating how they may respond to rapid change, requires an approach that incorporates environmental, social, economic, and policy factors, usually in a context of fragmented data availability. We employed fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) to integrate these factors in the assessment of future wildfire risk in the Chiquitania region, Bolivia. In this region, dealing with wildfires is becoming increasingly challenging because of reinforcing feedbacks between multiple drivers. We conducted semistructured interviews and constructed different FCMs in focus groups to understand the regional dynamics of wildfire from diverse perspectives. We used FCM modelling to evaluate possible adaptation scenarios in the context of future drier climatic conditions. Scenarios also considered possible failure to respond in time to the emergent risk. This approach proved of great potential to support decision making for risk management. It helped identify key forcing variables and generate insights into potential risks and trade-offs of different strategies. The “Hands-off” scenario resulted in amplified impacts driven by intensifying trends, affecting particularly the agricultural production under drought conditions. The “Fire management” scenario, which adopted a bottom-up approach to improve controlled burning, showed less trade-offs between wildfire risk reduction and production compared with the “Fire suppression” scenario. Findings highlighted the importance of considering strategies that involve all actors who use fire, and the need to nest these strategies for a more systemic approach to manage wildfire risk. The FCM model could be used as a decision-support tool and serve as a “boundary object” to facilitate collaboration and integration of different perceptions of fire in the region. This approach also has the potential to inform decisions in other dynamic frontier landscapes around the world that are facing increased risk of large wildfires.

Cities at risk: status of Italian planning system in reducing seismic and hydrological risks

Italy and its urban systems are under high seismic and hydrogeological risks. The awareness about the role of human activities in the genesis of disasters is achieved in the scientific debate, as well as the role of urban and regional planning in reducing risks. The paper reviews the state of Italian major cities referred to hydrogeological and seismic risk by: 1) extrapolating data and maps about seismic hazard and landslide risk concerning cities with more than 50.000 inhabitants and metropolitan contexts, and 2) outlining how risk reduction is framed in Italian planning system (at national and regional levels). The analyses of available data and the review of the normative framework highlight the existing gaps in addressing risk reduction: nevertheless a wide knowledge about natural risks afflicting Italian territory and an articulated regulatory framework, the available data about risks are not exhaustive, and risk reduction policies and multidisciplinary pro-active approaches are only partially fostered and applied.

Predictors of Adolescent Sexual Intentions and Behavior: Attitudes, Parenting, and Neighborhood Risk

The current study was a cross-sectional examination of data collected during an HIV risk reduction intervention in south Florida. The purpose of the study was to explore the relationships between neighborhood stress, parenting, attitudes, and adolescent sexual intentions and behavior. The Theory of Planned Behavior was used as a model to guide variable selection and propose an interaction pathway between predictors and outcomes. Potential predictor variables measured for adolescents ages 13-18 (n=196) included communication about sex, parent-family connectedness, parental presence, parent-adolescent activity participation, attitudes about sex and condom use, neighborhood disorder, and exposure to violence. Outcomes were behavioral intentions and sexual behavior for the previous eight months. Neighborhood data was supplemented with ZIP Code level data from regional sources and included median household income, percentage of minority and Hispanic residents, and number of foreclosures. Statistical tests included t-tests, Pearson’s correlations, and hierarchical linear regressions. Results showed that males and older adolescents reported less positive behavioral intentions than females and adolescents younger than 16. Intentions were associated with condom attitudes, sexual attitudes, and parental presence; unprotected sexual behavior was associated with parental presence. The best fit model for intentions included gender, sexual attitudes, condom attitudes, parental presence, and neighborhood disorder. The unsafe sexual behavior model included whether the participant lived with both natural parents in the previous year, and the percent of Hispanic residents in the neighborhood. Study findings indicate that more research on adolescent sexual behavior is warranted, specifically examining the differentials between variables that affect intentions and those that affect behavior. A focus on gender and age differences during intervention development may allow for better targeting and more efficacious interventions. Adding peer and media influences to the framework of attitudes, parenting, and neighborhood may offer more insight into patterns of adolescent sexual behavior risk.

Knowledge of HIV transmission risk behavior, and perceptions of risk among Haitian women living in Miami, Florida

This study was conducted to gain a more comprehensive understanding of HIV risk among Haitian women. The variables measured were: knowledge of HIV transmission, sexual risk behaviors, and perceptions of risk among Haitian women. The sociocultural aspect of the Haitian women's lives with regard to their risky behaviors was also examined. A total of 101 Haitian women (aged 25-53) who attended two comprehensive health clinics were interviewed. A combined questionnaire derived from both the ARM-Q and the RBA was used. In general, the women had good knowledge of the sexual transmission of HIV I AIDS and indicated that they were susceptible to HIV infection. However, knowledge and perceptions of risk were not translated into sexual risk-reduction behaviors with their partners. Multiplicity of partners and low incidence of condom use were the two major sexual risk factors isolated in this study. Results indicate Haitian women were more likely to use condoms if they possessed greater HIV knowledge and their sexual partners held more positive attitudes toward using condoms. Also, Haitian women may have failed to protect themselves because behavior changes could have involved threats to their social and economic survival, relationships and culturally sanctioned roles. This suggests the need to include male partners in HIV prevention interventions with Haitian women. Future research should focus on preventing high-risk behavior by improving knowledge, altering the male partners' attitudes toward condoms, and enhancing communication and negotiation skills. Nursing implications and recommendations for culturally sensitive and relevant AIDS prevention efforts are discussed.

Mecanismos de ação de compostos bioativos dos alimentos no contexto de processos inflamatórios relacionados à obesidade

É indiscutível o papel da dieta e dos alimentos na manutenção da saúde e na redução do risco de DCNT. Estudos epidemiológicos mostram que o aumento do consumo de alimentos de origem vegetal influencia positivamente a saúde, enquanto estudos in vitro e in vivo em modelo animal elucidam os mecanismos pelos quais compostos bioativos não nutrientes, presentes nos alimentos, atuam na manutenção da saúde e na redução do risco de doenças. A modulação da expressão de genes que codificam proteínas envolvidas em vias de sinalização celular ativadas em DCNT é um dos mecanismos de ação dos compostos bioativos, sugerindo que estes possam ser essenciais à manutenção da saúde. A biodisponibilidade dos compostos bioativos de alimentos, as suas rotas metabólicas e o modo de ação de seus metabólitos são importantes fatores no seu efeito nas DCNT. Todos esses aspectos são temas de investigações recentes, cujos resultados contribuem para a compreensão da ocorrência e desenvolvimento das DCNT e da sua relação com a dieta. Essa revisão visou discutir alguns dos mecanismos envolvidos na resposta inflamatória induzida pela obesidade, apresentar os compostos bioativos de alimentos que modulam essa resposta inflamatória e sua relação com o metabolismo desses compostos.

Vitaminas e minerais com propriedades antioxidantes e risco cardiometabólico: controvérsias e perspectivas

No processo celular de obtenção de energia, são gerados compostos chamados espécies reativas de oxigênio (ERO) que, em excesso, podem causar danos celulares. Estresse oxidativo resulta do desequilíbrio no estado de óxido-redução a favor da oxidação. Dos mecanismos de defesa antioxidante, participam enzimas endógenas e algumas vitaminas e minerais. A vitamina E encontra-se no plasma e na partícula de LDL, protegendo lipídeos da oxidação. Estudos observacionais relataram associação inversa entre ingestão de vitamina E e risco cardiometabólico (RCM). Entretanto, ensaios clínicos não comprovaram a eficácia de sua suplementação nos desfechos cardiometabólicos. A vitamina C participa do sistema de regeneração da vitamina E, mantendo o potencial antioxidante plasmático. Dados sobre os benefícios de sua suplementação na redução do risco cardiometabólico são inconclusivos. A atividade antioxidante dos carotenoides é responsável, em parte, por seu papel protetor contra doenças cardiovasculares e cânceres. A suplementação desse nutriente também não trouxe resultados consistentes no que se refere à redução do RCM. A participação do zinco e do selênio na defesa antioxidante vem sendo estudada mais recentemente, mas a sua suplementação em indivíduos com níveis séricos normais e ingestão adequada na dieta desses minerais não parece ser necessária. De um modo geral, há muita controvérsia sobre o papel desses micronutrientes no RCM. Estudos epidemiológicos sugerem que o consumo de substâncias antioxidantes provenientes da dieta ou dietas ricas em frutas e hortaliças diminui o RCM. Mais estudos são necessários antes de se recomendar o uso de antioxidantes isolados na forma de suplementos para tal finalidade.

Socioeconomic Differences in Preferences and Willingness-to-Pay for Insulin Delivery Systems in Type 1 and Type 2 Diabetes

Background: An evaluation of patients' preferences is necessary to understand the demand for different insulin delivery systems. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between socioeconomic status (SES) and patients' preferences and willingness to pay (WTP) for various attributes of insulin administration for diabetes management. Methods: We conducted a discrete choice experiment (DCE) to determine patients' preferences and their WTP for hypothetical insulin treatments. Both self-reported annual household income and education completed were used to explore differences in treatment preferences and WTP for different attributes of treatment across different levels of SES. Results: The DCE questionnaire was successfully completed by 274 patients. Overall, glucose control was the most valued attribute by all socioeconomic groups, while route of insulin delivery was not as important. Patients with higher incomes were willing to pay significantly more for better glucose control and to avoid adverse events compared to lower income groups. In addition, they were willing to pay more for an oral short-acting insulin ($Can 71.65 [95% confidence interval, $40.68, $102.62]) compared to the low income group ($Can 9.85 [95% confidence interval, 14.86, 34.56; P < 0.01]). Conversely, there were no differences in preferences when the sample was stratified by level of education. Conclusions: This study revealed that preferences and WTP for insulin therapy are influenced by income but not by level of education. Specifically, the higher the income, the greater desire for an oral insulin delivery system, whereas an inhaled route becomes less important for patients.

EFFECT OF n-3 POLYUNSATURATED FATTY ACIDS ON OXIDATIVE STRESS IN RATS SUPPLEMENTED WITH DIFFERENT DOSES OF FISH OIL

The diet and plasma lipid patterns associated with lipid oxidation susceptibility in rats fed different doses of polyunsaturated fatty acids (n-3 PUFA) from fish oil were evaluated. Wistar rats were assigned into three groups and received diets containing 8% soybean oil (SOY), 4% soybean oil + 4% fish oil (SOY-FISH) and 8% fish oil (FISH) for 21 days. Linoleic, oleic and alpha-linolenic acids in SOY diets were substituted by myristic, palmitic, palmitoleic, eicosapentaenoic (EPA) and docosahexaenoic (DHA) acids in SOY-FISH and FISH diets reducing the n-6/n-3 ratio and increasing the peroxidability index (PI). Increased dietary EPA and DHA were observed in SOY-FISH and FISH plasma at the expense of linoleic and arachidonic acid levels. Saturated fatty acids, which were significantly different between the three diets (P < 0.01), were found at the same concentration in the plasma (P = 0.23). No changes were observed in oxidative stress as measured by the concentration of thiobarbituric acid reactive substances (TBARS) expressed in brain homogenates. However, TBARS concentration in the plasma of the SOY-FISH group was higher than the other two groups (P = 0.02). The major differences between these three groups were the n-3 PUFA content (0.4, 1.8 and 3.2 g/100 g diet) and the saturates/polyunsaturates ratio (0.3, 0.5 and 0.8) for SOY, SOY-FISH, and FISH groups, respectively. Thus, n-3 PUFA intake from fish oil only when followed by a decrease in saturated/polyunsaturated fatty acids ratio increased oxidative susceptibility in rats measured by plasma TBARS concentration. PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS Because fish oil intake is associated with risk reduction for cardiovascular disease, individuals are taking supplements containing a high dose of fish oil. However, there is no scientific consensus if the intake of a high dose of fish oil could increase the oxidative stress. Thus, more studies are necessary to assure the safety of this kind of supplementation.

Effects of interventions in health care settings on physical activity or cardiorespiratory fitness

Introduction: This paper reviews studies of physical activity interventions in health care settings to determine effects on physical activity and/or fitness and characteristics of successful interventions. Methods: Studies testing interventions to promote physical activity in health care settings for primary prevention (patients without disease) and secondary prevention (patients with cardiovascular disease [CVD]) were identified by computerized search methods and reference lists of reviews and articles. Inclusion criteria included assignment to intervention and control groups, physical activity or cardiorespiratory fitness outcome measures, and, for the secondary prevention studies, measurement 12 or more months after randomization. The number of studies with statistically significant effects was determined overall as well as for studies testing interventions with various characteristics. Results: Twelve studies of primary prevention were identified, seven of which were randomized. Three of four randomized studies with short-term measurement (4 weeks to 3 months after randomization), and two of five randomized studies with long-term measurement (6 months after randomization) achieved significant effects on physical activity. Twenty-four randomized studies of CVD secondary prevention were identified; 13 achieved significant effects on activity and/or fitness at twelve or more months. Studies with measurement at two time points showed decaying effects over time, particularly if the intervention were discontinued. Successful interventions contained multiple contacts, behavioral approaches, supervised exercise, provision of equipment, and/or continuing intervention. Many studies had methodologic problems such as low follow-up rates. Conclusion: Interventions in health care settings can increase physical activity for both primary and secondary prevention. Long-term effects are more likely with continuing intervention and multiple intervention components such as supervised exercise, provision of equipment, and behavioral approaches. Recommendations for additional research are given.

Myocardial scintigraphy and clinical stratification as predictors of events in renal transplant candidates

Background: We tested the hypothesis that the universal application of myocardial scanning with single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) would result in better risk stratification in renal transplant candidates (RTC) compared with SPECT being restricted to patients who, in addition to renal disease, had other clinical risk factors. Methods: RTCs (n=363) underwent SPECT and clinical risk stratification according to the American Society of Transplantation (AST) algorithm and were followed up until a major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) or death. Results: Of the 363 patients, 79 patients (22%) had an abnormal SPECT scan and 270 (74%) were classified as high risk. Both methods correctly identified patients with increased probability of MACE. However, clinical stratification performed better (sensitivity and negative predictive value 99% and 99% vs. 25% and 87%, respectively). High-risk patients with an abnormal SPECT scan had a modest increased risk of events (log-rank = 0.03; hazard ratio [HR] = 1.37; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.02-1.82). Eighty-six patients underwent coronary angiography, and coronary artery disease (CAD) was found in 60%. High-risk patients with CAD had an increased incidence of events (log-rank = 0.008; HR=3.85; 95% CI, 1.46-13.22), but in those with an abnormal SPECT scan, the incidence of events was not influenced by CAD (log-rank = 0.23). Forty-six patients died. Clinical stratification, but not SPECT, correlated with the probability of death (log-rank = 0.02; HR=3.25; 95% CI, 1.31-10.82). Conclusion: SPECT should be restricted to high-risk patients. Moreover, in contrast to SPECT, the AST algorithm was also useful for predicting death by any cause in RTCs and for selecting patients for invasive coronary testing.

Long-Term Effect of Early Postoperative Pelvic Floor Biofeedback on Continence in Men Undergoing Radical Prostatectomy: A Prospective, Randomized, Controlled Trial

Purpose: The impact of pelvic floor muscle training on the recovery of urinary continence after radical prostatectomy is still controversial. We tested the effectiveness of biofeedback-pelvic floor muscle training in improving urinary incontinence in the 12 months following radical prostatectomy. Materials and Methods: A total of 73 patients who underwent radical prostatectomy were randomized to a treatment group (36) receiving biofeedback-pelvic floor muscle training once a week for 3 months as well as home exercises or a control group (37). Patients were evaluated 1, 3, 6 and 12 months postoperatively. Continence was defined as the use of 1 pad or less daily and incontinence severity was measured by the 24-hour pad test. Incontinence symptoms and quality of life were assessed with the International Continence Society male Short Form questionnaire and the Incontinence Impact Questionnaire. Pelvic floor muscle strength was evaluated with the Oxford score. Results: A total of 54 patients (26 pelvic floor muscle training and 28 controls) completed the trial. Duration of incontinence was shorter in the treatment group. At postoperative month 12, 25 (96.15%) patients in the treatment group and 21 (75.0%) in the control group were continent (p = 0.028). The absolute risk reduction was 21.2% (95% CI 3.45-38.81) and the relative risk of recovering continence was 1.28 (95% CI 1.02-1.69). The number needed to treat was 5 (95% CI 2.6-28.6). Overall there were significant changes in both groups in terms of incontinence symptoms, lower urinary tract symptoms, quality of life and pelvic floor muscle strength (p <0.0001). Conclusions: Early biofeedback-pelvic floor muscle training not only hastens the recovery of urinary continence after radical prostatectomy but allows for significant improvements in the severity of incontinence, voiding symptoms and pelvic floor muscle strength 12 months postoperatively.

Preexposure Chemoprophylaxis for HIV Prevention in Men Who Have Sex with Men.

Background: Antiretroviral chemoprophylaxis before exposure is a promising approach for the prevention of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) acquisition. Methods: We randomly assigned 2499 HIV-seronegative men or transgender women who have sex with men to receive a combination of two oral antiretroviral drugs, emtricitabine and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (FTC-TDF), or placebo once daily. All subjects received HIV testing, risk-reduction counseling, condoms, and management of sexually transmitted infections. Results: The study subjects were followed for 3324 person-years (median, 1.2 years; maximum, 2.8 years). Of these subjects, 10 were found to have been infected with HIV at enrollment, and 100 became infected during follow-up (36 in the FTC-TDF group and 64 in the placebo group), indicating a 44% reduction in the incidence of HIV (95% confidence interval, 15 to 63; P=0.005). In the FTC-TDF group, the study drug was detected in 22 of 43 of seronegative subjects (51%) and in 3 of 34 HIV-infected subjects (9%) (P<0.001). Nausea was reported more frequently during the first 4 weeks in the FTC-TDF group than in the placebo group (P<0.001). The two groups had similar rates of serious adverse events (P=0.57). Conclusions: Oral FTC-TDF provided protection against the acquisition of HIV infection among the subjects. Detectable blood levels strongly correlated with the prophylactic effect. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00458393.) N Engl J Med 2010;363:2587-99.

Rationale and design of a randomized placebo-controlled trial assessing the effects of etiologic treatment in Chagas` cardiomyopathy: The BENznidazole Evaluation For Interrupting Trypanosomiasis (BENEFIT)

Background Benznidazole is effective for treating acute and chronic (recently acquired) Tryponosoma cruzi infection (Chagas` disease). Recent data indicate that parasite persistence plays a pivotal role in the pathogenesis of chronic Chagas` cardiomyopathy. However, the efficacy of trypanocidal therapy in preventing clinical complications in patients with preexisting cardiac disease is unknown. Study Design BENEFIT is a multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial of 3,000 patients with Chagas` cardiomyopathy in Latin America. Patients are randomized to receive benznidazole (5 mg/kg per day) or matched placebo, for 60 days. The primary outcome is the composite of death; resuscitated cardiac arrest; sustained ventricular tachycardia; insertion of pacemaker or cardiac defibrillator; cardiac transplantation; and development of new heart failure, stroke, or systemic or pulmonary thromboembolic events. The average follow-up time will be 5 years, and the trial has a 90% power to detect a 25% relative risk reduction. The BENEFIT program also comprises a substudy evaluating the effects of benznidazole on parasite clearance and an echo substudy exploring the impact of etiologic treatment on left ventricular function. Recruitment started in November 2004, and >1,000 patients have been enrolled in 35 centers from Argentina, Brazil, and Colombia to date. Conclusion This is the largest trial yet conducted in Chagas` disease. BENEFIT will clarify the role of trypanocidal therapy in preventing cardiac disease progression and death.

Opportunities for the control of coronary heart disease in Australia

Objective: To estimate the number of coronary events that could be prevented in Australia each year by the use of preventive and therapeutic strategies targeted to subgroups of the population based on their levels of risk and need. Methods: Estimates of risk reduction from the published literature, prevalence estimates of elevated risk factor levels from the 1995 National Health Survey and treatment levels from the Australian collaborating centres in the World Health Organization's MONICA Project were used to calculate numbers of coronary events preventable among men and women aged 35-79 years in Australia. Results: Approximately 14,000 coronary events could be avoided each year if the mean level of cholesterol in the population was reduced by 0.5 mmol/L, smoking prevalence was halved and prevalence of physical inactivity was reduced to 25%. This represents a reduction in coronary events of about 40%. Even with less optimistic targets, a reduction of 20% could be attained, while the achievement of some internationally recommended targets could lead to almost 50% reduction. In the short term, aggressive medical treatment of people with elevated levels of risk factors and established coronary disease offers the greatest opportunity for reducing coronary events. Conclusion: A comprehensive approach to reduce levels of behavioural and biological risk factors and improve the use of effective treatment could lead to a large reduction in coronary event rates. In the long term, primary prevention - especially to reduce smoking, lower cholesterol levels and increase exercise - has the potential to reduce the population levels of risk and hence contain the national cost of coronary disease.

Class benefits of AT1 antagonists in Type 2 diabetes with nephropathy

Diabetes mellitus has reached epidemic proportions in many countries and is the most common cause of end stage renal disease (ESRD). The angiotensin II receptor-1 (AT1) antagonists losartan and irbesartan have recently been evaluated as renoprotective agents in large clinical trials of patients with Type 2 diabetes and nephropathy. In the Reduction of End points in Non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus with the Angiotensin II Antagonist (RENAAL) study, losartan decreased the number of patients reaching the primary end point of a composite of measures of neuropathy. The relative risk reduction was ~ 15% with losartan and this was due to a reduction in both the doubling of creatinine concentration (25%) and of ESRD (28%) but not in death. In the Irbesartan Diabetic Nephropathy Trial (IDNT), the beneficial effect of irbesartan was mainly against the doubling of the baseline creatinine concentration (37% risk reduction) but there was also a 20% reduction in the onset of ESRD. Irbesartan had no effect on mortality. Beneficial effects occurred in addition to blood pressure being controlled by agents other than the AT1 antagonists. These clinical trials suggest that there may be a class renoprotective action with AT1 antagonists, although the mechanism is not clear. Patients with Type 2 diabetes and nephropathy should receive either an AT1 antagonist or the angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor ramipril to ensure renoprotection.