Farmers’ attitudes to disease risk management in England: a comparative analysis of sheep and pig farmers

The UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) identified practices to reduce the risk of animal disease outbreaks. We report on the response of sheep and pig farmers in England to promotion of these practices. A conceptual framework was established from research on factors influencing adoption of animal health practices, linking knowledge, attitudes, social influences and perceived constraints to the implementation of specific practices. Qualitative data were collected from nine sheep and six pig enterprises in 2011. Thematic analysis explored attitudes and responses to the proposed practices, and factors influencing the likelihood of implementation. Most feel they are doing all they can reasonably do to minimise disease risk and that practices not being implemented are either not relevant or ineffective. There is little awareness and concern about risk from unseen threats. Pig farmers place more emphasis than sheep farmers on controlling wildlife, staff and visitor management and staff training. The main factors that influence livestock farmers’ decision on whether or not to implement a specific disease risk measure are: attitudes to, and perceptions of, disease risk; attitudes towards the specific measure and its efficacy; characteristics of the enterprise which they perceive as making a measure impractical; previous experience of a disease or of the measure; and the credibility of information and advice. Great importance is placed on access to authoritative information with most seeing vets as the prime source to interpret generic advice from national bodies in the local context. Uptake of disease risk measures could be increased by: improved risk communication through the farming press and vets to encourage farmers to recognise hidden threats; dissemination of credible early warning information to sharpen farmers’ assessment of risk; and targeted information through training events, farming press, vets and other advisers, and farmer groups, tailored to the different categories of livestock farmer.

The European Flood Alert System and the communication, perception, and use of ensemble predictions for operational flood risk management

Although ensemble prediction systems (EPS) are increasingly promoted as the scientific state-of-the-art for operational flood forecasting, the communication, perception, and use of the resulting alerts have received much less attention. Using a variety of qualitative research methods, including direct user feedback at training workshops, participant observation during site visits to 25 forecasting centres across Europe, and in-depth interviews with 69 forecasters, civil protection officials, and policy makers involved in operational flood risk management in 17 European countries, this article discusses the perception, communication, and use of European Flood Alert System (EFAS) alerts in operational flood management. In particular, this article describes how the design of EFAS alerts has evolved in response to user feedback and desires for a hydrographic-like way of visualizing EFAS outputs. It also documents a variety of forecaster perceptions about the value and skill of EFAS forecasts and the best way of using them to inform operational decision making. EFAS flood alerts were generally welcomed by flood forecasters as a sort of ‘pre-alert’ to spur greater internal vigilance. In most cases, however, they did not lead, by themselves, to further preparatory action or to earlier warnings to the public or emergency services. Their hesitancy to act in response to medium-term, probabilistic alerts highlights some wider institutional obstacles to the hopes in the research community that EPS will be readily embraced by operational forecasters and lead to immediate improvements in flood incident management. The EFAS experience offers lessons for other hydrological services seeking to implement EPS operationally for flood forecasting and warning. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Flood Risk Management In Small Urban River Using A Sustainable Urban Drainage System: Wortley Beck, Leeds, Uk

In the UK, urban river basins are particularly vulnerable to flash floods due to short and intense rainfall. This paper presents potential flood resilience approaches for the highly urbanised Wortley Beck river basin, south west of the Leeds city centre. The reach of Wortley Beck is approximately 6km long with contributing catchment area of 30km2 that drain into the River Aire. Lower Wortley has experienced regular flooding over the last few years from a range of sources, including Wortley Beck and surface and ground water, that affects properties both upstream and downstream of Farnley Lake as well as Wortley Ring Road. This has serious implications for society, the environment and economy activity in the City of Leeds. The first stage of the study involves systematically incorporating Wortley Beck’s land scape features on an Arc-GIS platform to identify existing green features in the region. This process also enables the exploration of potential blue green features: green spaces, green roofs, water retention ponds and swales at appropriate locations and connect them with existing green corridors to maximize their productivity. The next stage is involved in developing a detailed 2D urban flood inundation model for the Wortley Beck region using the CityCat model. CityCat is capable to model the effects of permeable/impermeable ground surfaces and buildings/roofs to generate flood depth and velocity maps at 1m caused by design storm events. The final stage of the study is involved in simulation of range of rainfall and flood event scenarios through CityCat model with different blue green features. Installation of other hard engineering individual property protection measures through water butts and flood walls are also incorporated in the CityCat model. This enables an integrated sustainable flood resilience strategy for this region.

Enterprise-wide risk management : um modelo de gestão integrada de riscos

Existem diversos tipos de riscos que uma organização pode correr. Normalmente eles são gerenciados isoladamente em casa unidade ou divisão. Diante do cenário mais volátil da nova economia, é proposto um modelo de gerenciamento de risco que busca integrar todos os diferentes tipos de risco, chamado de Enterprise-Wide Risk Management (EWRM). O modelo organiza a gestão de riscos, sob a ótica de portfolio, interferindo na estratégia da empresa e criando valor ao acionista. O trabalho mostra a evolução dos modelos de gerenciamento de risco até o EWRM, propondo uma metodologia para sua implementação assim como os fatores chave para seu sucesso

Essays in corporate risk management

This research investigates the factors that lead Latin American non-financial firms to manage risks using derivatives. The main focus is on currency risk management. With this purpose, this thesis is divided into an introduction and two main chapters, which have been written as stand-alone papers. The first paper describes the results of a survey on derivatives usage and risk management responded by the CFOs of 74 Brazilian non-financial firms listed at the São Paulo Stock Exchange (BOVESPA), and the main evidence found is: i) larger firms are more likely to use financial derivatives; ii) foreign exchange risk is the most managed with derivatives; iii) Brazilian managers are more concerned with legal and institutional aspects in using derivatives, such as the taxation and accounting treatment of these instruments, than with issues related to implementing and maintaining a risk management program using derivatives. The second paper studies the determinants of risk management with derivatives in four Latin American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico). I investigate not only the decision of whether to use financial derivatives or not, but also the magnitude of risk management, measured by the notional value of outstanding derivatives contracts. This is the first study, to the best of my knowledge, to use derivatives holdings information in emerging markets. The use of a multi-country setting allows the analysis of institutional and economic factors, such as foreign currency indebtedness, the high volatility of exchange rates, the instability of political and institutional framework and the development of financial markets, which are issues of second-order importance in developed markets. The main contribution of the second paper is on the understanding of the relationship among currency derivatives usage, foreign debt and the sensitivity of operational earnings to currency fluctuations in Latin American countries. Unlikely previous findings for US firms, my evidence shows that derivatives held by Latin American firms are capable of producing cash flows comparable to financial expenses and investments, showing that derivatives are key instruments in their risk management strategies. It is also the first work to show strong and robust evidence that firms that benefit from local currency devaluation (e.g. exporters) have a natural currency hedge for foreign debt that allows them to bear higher levels of debt in foreign currency. This implies that firms under this revenue-cost structure require lower levels of hedging with derivatives. The findings also provide evidence that large firms are more likely to use derivatives, but the magnitude of derivatives holdings seems to be unrelated to the size of the firm, consistent with findings for US firms.

PRiMA : project risk management approach

Esta tese propõe uma abordagem sistemática para gerenciar riscos em projetos de software, por meio da adaptação de processos. O objetivo da abordagem é permitir a elaboração de um processo específico para um dado projeto, visando minimizar a exposição do projeto aos riscos, identificados de acordo com o contexto do projeto. As atividades, possíveis de serem executadas em processos de projetos de uma organização, são estruturadas em um framework de processo (PRiMA-F), que inclui também os padrões de processo e organizacionais usados para descrever ações preventivas e corretivas aos riscos. A estruturação do framework básico, construído pela organização, poderá permitir distintas instanciações, como por exemplo, processos de acordo com o paradigma ágil ou planejado, ou em conformidade com normas de qualidade, como CMM e outras; além dos padrões organizacionais e de processo para gestão de riscos de projeto. PRiMA-F define o escopo maior do processo de software da organização e este é adaptado de acordo com os riscos identificados para o projeto e suas necessidades específicas, dando origem ao processo a ser usado no projeto. adaptação. Os guias descrevem como adaptar elementos de processo de acordo com o tamanho e o formalismo do projeto. Configurações de processo são modelos prédefinidos, visando atender projetos típicos ou modelos de qualidade. Prima-F pode ser estendida para novos riscos, padrões e processos, de acordo com as necessidades da organização. Utilizando o paradigma Goal/Question/Metric, no framework de processo (PRiMAF), são definidas métricas do processo de software, associadas aos riscos, para serem usadas para acompanhar o progresso dos fatores de risco, possibilitando ao gerente de projeto tomar ações corretivas, quando necessário e no momento adequado. As ações corretivas são descritas usando padrões organizacionais e de processo. Uma ferramenta de apoio à sistemática proposta (PRiMA-Tool) foi desenvolvida. Estudos de caso foram elaborados para validar a sistemática proposta

A risk management approach to emerging market's sovereign debt sustainability with an application to Brazilian data

In this paper we study the question of debt sustainability from a risk management perspective. The debt accumulation equation for any country involves variables that are stochastic and closely intertwined. When these aspects are taken into consideration the notion of debt sustainability is expanded to studying the stochastic properties of the debt dynamics. We illustrate the methodology by studying the Brazilian case. We find that even though the debt could be sustainable in the absence of risk, there are paths in which it is clearly unsustainable. Furthermore, we show that properties of the debt dynamics are closely related to the spreads on sovereign dollar denominated debt.

Global supply chain risk management: a multicase study in the mango exportation chain

The purpose of this study is to understand how different members manage risk in the global supply chain. Through a multi-case study of the Brazilian mango exportation chain to the United States, four actors of this chain were investigated: supplier, exporter, importer and logistics operator. A research protocol was developed based on previous research conducted by Christopher, et al. (2011). Main results show that risk management is heterogeneous among members of the mango chain, the exporter is the most penalized by the results of the risk chain and collaboration is the main mitigation strategy observed

Corporate risk management and exchange rate volatility in Latin America

Includes bibliography

Supply chain risk management: An exploratory research in Brazilian aerospace industry

This paper aimed to analyse supply chain risk factors in aerospace industry. It was conducted an exploratory research at an important Brazilian aerospace company. This company has a major role at the global aerospace industry. Senior managers assessed risk factors such as quality, productivity, supply chain, business strategy, organisation, environmental and natural political, indicators, product management, and information system. Analytic hierarchy process was applied to prioritise these factors. The most relevant were quality and productivity. Copyright © 2011 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

Corporate risk management and exchange rate volatility in Latin America

Includes bibliography

Futures markets as a risk management tool for Latin American commodity exports: some pending issues

Includes bibliography

Risk management in software projects through Knowledge Management techniques: Cases in Brazilian Incubated Technology-Based Firms

In businesses such as the software industry, which uses knowledge as a resource, activities are knowledge intensive, requiring constant adoption of new technologies and practices. Another feature of this environment is that the industry is particularly susceptible to failure; with this in mind, the objective of this research is to analyze the integration of Knowledge Management techniques into the activity of risk management as it applies to software development projects of micro and small Brazilian incubated technology-based firms. Research methods chosen were the Multiple Case Study. The main risk factor for managers and developers is that scope or goals are often unclear or misinterpreted. For risk management, firms have found that Knowledge Management techniques of conversion combination would be the most applicable for use; however, those most commonly used refer to the conversion mode as internalization.. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. APM and IPMA.

Knowledge-based risk management: Survey on Brazilian software development enterprises

A risks management, carried on in an effective way, leads the software development to success and may influence on the organization. The knowledge takes part of such a process as a way to help taking decisions. This research aimed to analyze the use of Knowledge Management techniques to the Risk Management in software projects development and the possible influence on the enterprise revenue. It had, as its main studying subject, Brazilian incubated and graduated software developing enterprises. The chosen research method was the Survey type. Multivariate statistical methods were used for the treatment and analysis of the obtained results, this way identifying the most significant factors, that is, enterprise's achievement constraining factors and those outcome achievement ones. Among the latter we highlight the knowledge methodology, the time of existence of the enterprise, the amount of employees and the knowledge externalization. The results encourage contributing actions to the increasing of financial revenue. © 2013 Springer-Verlag.

Information on disaster risk management: case study of five countries. Main technical report = Información para la gestión del riesgo de desastres: estudios de caso de cinco países. Informe técnico principal

Incluye Bibliografía