Mainstreaming of Nature-Based Solutions for the mitigation of hydro-meteorological hazard: governance analysis of a socio- technical change

The Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) concept and approach were developed to simultaneously face challenges such as risk mitigation and biodiversity conservation and restoration. NBSs have been endorsed by major International Organizations such as the EU, the FAO and World Bank that are pushing to enable a mainstreaming process. However, a shift from traditional engineering “grey” solutions to wider and standard adoption of NBS encounters technical, social, cultural, and normative barriers that have been identified with a qualitative content analysis of policy documents, reports and expert interviews. The case of the region Emilia-Romagna was studied by developing an analytical framework that brought together the social-ecological context, the governance system and the characteristics of specific NBSs.

Derivation and external validation of a simple prediction model for the diagnosis of type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in the Brazilian urban population

A risk score model was developed based in a population of 1,224 individuals from the general population without known diabetes aging 35 years or more from an urban Brazilian population sample in order to select individuals who should be screened in subsequent testing and improve the efficacy of public health assurance. External validation was performed in a second, independent, population from a different city ascertained through a similar epidemiological protocol. The risk score was developed by multiple logistic regression and model performance and cutoff values were derived from a receiver operating characteristic curve. Model`s capacity of predicting fasting blood glucose levels was tested analyzing data from a 5-year follow-up protocol conducted in the general population. Items independently and significantly associated with diabetes were age, BMI and known hypertension. Sensitivity, specificity and proportion of further testing necessary for the best cutoff value were 75.9, 66.9 and 37.2%, respectively. External validation confirmed the model`s adequacy (AUC equal to 0.72). Finally, model score was also capable of predicting fasting blood glucose progression in non-diabetic individuals in a 5-year follow-up period. In conclusion, this simple diabetes risk score was able to identify individuals with an increased likelihood of having diabetes and it can be used to stratify subpopulations in which performing of subsequent tests is necessary and probably cost-effective.

Risk Aversion in a Mixed-Integer Nonlinear Approach to Support Decision-Making for a Hydro Power Producer

In this paper, a mixed-integer nonlinear approach is proposed to support decision-making for a hydro power producer, considering a head-dependent hydro chain. The aim is to maximize the profit of the hydro power producer from selling energy into the electric market. As a new contribution to earlier studies, a risk aversion criterion is taken into account, as well as head-dependency. The volatility of the expected profit is limited through the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR). The proposed approach has been applied successfully to solve a case study based on one of the main Portuguese cascaded hydro systems.

Necessidades de formação em educação para a saúde em contexto escolar: contributos para os currículos de enfermagem

Tese de Doutoramento, Educação (Desenvolvimento Curricular), 9 de Dezembro de 2013, Universidade dos Açores.

Resiliência em idosos viúvos

Dissertação de Mestrado em Gerontologia Social

Implementation contexts of a Tuberculosis Control Program in Brazilian prisons

OBJECTIVE To analyze the influence from context characteristics in the control of tuberculosis in prisons, and the influence from the program implementation degrees in observed effects.METHODS A multiple case study, with a qualitative approach, conducted in the prison systems of two Brazilian states in 2011 and 2012. Two prisons were analyzed in each state, and a prison hospital was analyzed in one of them. The data were submitted to a content analysis, which was based on external, political-organizational, implementation, and effect dimensions. Contextual factors and the ones in the program organization were correlated. The independent variable was the program implementation degree and the dependent one, the effects from the Tuberculosis Control Program in prisons.RESULTS The context with the highest sociodemographic vulnerability, the highest incidence rate of tuberculosis, and the smallest amount of available resources were associated with the low implementation degree of the program. The results from tuberculosis treatment in the prison system were better where the program had already been partially implemented than in the case with low implementation degree in both cases.CONCLUSIONS The implementation degree and its contexts – external and political-organizational dimensions – simultaneously contribute to the effects that are observed in the control of tuberculosis in analyzed prisons.

Groundwater quality, vulnerability and potential assessment in Kobo Valley development project, Ethiopia

This study deals with investigating the groundwater quality for irrigation purpose, the vulnerability of the aquifer system to pollution and also the aquifer potential for sustainable water resources development in Kobo Valley development project. The groundwater quality is evaluated up on predicting the best possible distribution of hydrogeochemicals using geostatistical method and comparing them with the water quality guidelines given for the purpose of irrigation. The hydro geochemical parameters considered are SAR, EC, TDS, Cl-, Na+, Ca++, SO4 2- and HCO3 -. The spatial variability map reveals that these parameters falls under safe, moderate and severe or increasing problems. In order to present it clearly, the aggregated Water Quality Index (WQI) map is constructed using Weighted Arithmetic Mean method. It is found that Kobo-Gerbi sub basin is suffered from bad water quality for the irrigation purpose. Waja Golesha sub-basin has moderate and Hormat Golena is the better sub basin in terms of water quality. The groundwater vulnerability assessment of the study area is made using the GOD rating system. It is found that the whole area is experiencing moderate to high risk of vulnerability and it is a good warning for proper management of the resource. The high risks of vulnerability are noticed in Hormat Golena and Waja Golesha sub basins. The aquifer potential of the study area is obtained using weighted overlay analysis and 73.3% of the total area is a good site for future water well development. The rest 26.7% of the area is not considered as a good site for spotting groundwater wells. Most of this area fall under Kobo-Gerbi sub basin.

Enterprise risk management adoption: An empirical investigation of its effects on firm performance

Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) is gaining relevance among financial and non-financial companies but its benefits still are uncertain. This paper aims at investigating the relationship between ERM adoption and firm performance based on a sample of 1130 non-financial companies belonging to the STOXX® index. A content analysis of individual accounts is performed to distinguish adopters, and a regression analysis explores the effect of ERM adoption on firm performance, proxied by Tobin’s Q. The findings suggest that there is a statistical significant positive effect of ERM adoption on firm performance, meaning that firms are benefiting from the implementation of this process.

Analytical approach for the flexural analysis of RC beams strengthened with prestressed CFRP

The objective of this paper is to propose a simplified analytical approach to predict the flexural behavior of simply supported reinforced-concrete (RC) beams flexurally strengthened with prestressed carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) reinforcements using either externally bonded reinforcing (EBR) or near surface mounted (NSM) techniques. This design methodology also considers the ultimate flexural capacity of NSM CFRP strengthened beams when concrete cover delamination is the governing failure mode. A moment–curvature (M–χ) relationship formed by three linear branches corresponding to the precracking, postcracking, and postyielding stages is established by considering the four critical M–χ points that characterize the flexural behavior of CFRP strengthened beams. Two additional M–χ points, namely, concrete decompression and steel decompression, are also defined to assess the initial effects of the prestress force applied by the FRP reinforcement. The mid-span deflection of the beams is predicted based on the curvature approach, assuming a linear curvature variation between the critical points along the beam length. The good predictive performance of the analytical model is appraised by simulating the force–deflection response registered in experimental programs composed of RC beams strengthened with prestressed NSM CFRP reinforcements.

Avaliação de desempenho docente: Contributos para as práticas de avaliação na escola

Tese de Doutoramento em Ciências da Educação (Especialidade em Desenvolvimento Curricular)

Divulgação de informação sobre o governo das sociedades em Portugal: Extensão e determinantes

Tese de Doutoramento em Contabilidade

Analysis of the Association Between Apolipoprotein E Polymorphism and Cardiovascular Risk Factors in an Elderly Population with Longevity

OBJECTIVE: To establish the allelic and genotypic frequencies related to apolipoprotein E (ApoE) polymorphism and association of the genotypes with risk factors and cardiovascular morbidity in an elderly population with longevity. METHODS: We analyzed 70 elderly patients aged 80 years or more who were part of the Projeto Veranópolis. We used the gene amplification technique through the polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP) and cleavage with the restriction enzyme Hha I to identify the ApoE genotypes. The most frequent genotypes were compared considering biological variables and cardiovascular risks and morbidity. RESULTS: The frequencies of the E2, E3, and E4 alleles were 0.05, 0.84, and 0.11, respectively, and of the genotypes were as follows: E3E3 (0.70), E3E4 (0.22), E2E3 (0.06), and E2E2 (0.02). Individuals with the E3E4 had a mean age greater than those with the E3E3. No association was observed between the genotypes and the variables analyzed, except for obesity, which was associated with the E3E3 genotype. Individuals with the E3E4 genotype had high levels of LDL-cholesterol and fibrinogen as compared with those with the E3E3 genotype. CONCLUSION: The results suggest that the E4E4 genotype may be associated with early mortality. A balance between the protective or neutral factors and the cardiovascular risk factors may occur among the individuals with different genotypes, attenuating the negative effects of the E4 allele.

Meta-analysis of genome-wide association data identifies a risk locus for major mood disorders on 3p21.1.

The major mood disorders, which include bipolar disorder and major depressive disorder (MDD), are considered heritable traits, although previous genetic association studies have had limited success in robustly identifying risk loci. We performed a meta-analysis of five case-control cohorts for major mood disorder, including over 13,600 individuals genotyped on high-density SNP arrays. We identified SNPs at 3p21.1 associated with major mood disorders (rs2251219, P = 3.63 x 10(-8); odds ratio = 0.87; 95% confidence interval, 0.83-0.92), with supportive evidence for association observed in two out of three independent replication cohorts. These results provide an example of a shared genetic susceptibility locus for bipolar disorder and MDD.

Atrial fibrillation and minimally invasive coronary artery bypass grafting: risk factor analysis.

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a frequent arrhythmia after conventional coronary artery bypass grafting. With the advent of minimally invasive technique for left internal mammary artery-left anterior descending coronary artery (LIMA-LAD) grafting, we analyzed the incidence and the risk factors of postoperative AF in this patient population. This prospective study involves all patients undergoing isolated LIMA-LAD grafting with minimally invasive technique between January 1994 and June 2000. Twenty-four possible risk factors for postoperative AF were entered into univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. Postoperative AF occurred in 21 of the 90 patients (23.3%) analyzed. Double- or triple-vessel disease was present in 12/90 patients (13.3%). On univariate analysis, right coronary artery disease (p <0.01), age (p = 0.01), and diabetes (p = 0.04) were found to be risk factors for AF. On multivariate analysis, right coronary artery disease was identified as the sole significant risk factor (p = 0.02). In this patient population, the incidence of AF after minimally invasive coronary artery bypass is in the range of that reported for conventional coronary artery bypass grafting. Right coronary artery disease was found to be an independent predictor, and this may be related to the fact that in this patient population the diseased right coronary artery was not revascularized at the time of the surgical procedure. For the same reason, this risk factor may find a broader application to noncardiac thoracic surgery.

Predictors of local malaria outbreaks: an approach to the development of an early warning system in Colombia

Risk factor surveillance is a complementary tool of morbidity and mortality surveillance that improves the likelihood that public health interventions are implemented in a timely fashion. The aim of this study was to identify population predictors of malaria outbreaks in endemic municipalities of Colombia with the goal of developing an early warning system for malaria outbreaks. We conducted a multiple-group, exploratory, ecological study at the municipal level. Each of the 290 municipalities with endemic malaria that we studied was classified according to the presence or absence of outbreaks. The measurement of variables was based on historic registries and logistic regression was performed to analyse the data. Altitude above sea level [odds ratio (OR) 3.65, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.34-9.98], variability in rainfall (OR 1.85, 95% CI 1.40-2.44) and the proportion of inhabitants over 45 years of age (OR 0.17, 95% CI 0.08-0.38) were factors associated with malaria outbreaks in Colombian municipalities. The results suggest that environmental and demographic factors could have a significant ability to predict malaria outbreaks on the municipal level in Colombia. To advance the development of an early warning system, it will be necessary to adjust and standardise the collection of required data and to evaluate the accuracy of the forecast models.