959 resultados para Riphahn-Ensemble
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Référence bibliographique : Rol, 58727
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Collection : Archives de la linguistique française ; 310
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De nos jours, près de 90% des enfants atteints d'une maladie chronique survivent au-delà de l'âge de vingt ans et doivent passer de la pédiatrie aux soins adultes et de l'enfance à l'adolescence et à l'âge adulte. Selon la Society for Adolescent Medicine and Health (SAHM), les objectifs d'une transition organisée et coordonnée aux soins adultes pour les jeunes malades chroniques devraient permettre d'optimiser leur santé et de faciliter la réalisation de leur potentiel maximal.1 En conséquence, bien que le but principal de la transition soit la continuité des soins, elle n'est pas limitée au transfert (le passage de l'information et du patient de la pédiatrie aux soins adultes) mais est beaucoup plus large et inclut la préparation à la vie adulte. Ainsi donc, la transition devrait commencer tôt pendant l'adolescence, finir quand le patient devient un jeune adulte et englober trois parties : une phase de préparation en pédiatrie, une de transfert de la pédiatrie aux soins adultes et une dernière d'engagement aux soins adultes. Nowadays nearly 90% of children with a chronic condition survive to adulthood and must make the transition from pediatric to adult care. This transition must include not only the continuity of care but also the preparation for adult life so that these young people can develop their full potential. Divided into three phases (preparation, transfer and engagement), the transition process should be adapted to adolescents and ensure access to quality care.
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PURPOSE: According to estimations around 230 people die as a result of radon exposure in Switzerland. This public health concern makes reliable indoor radon prediction and mapping methods necessary in order to improve risk communication to the public. The aim of this study was to develop an automated method to classify lithological units according to their radon characteristics and to develop mapping and predictive tools in order to improve local radon prediction. METHOD: About 240 000 indoor radon concentration (IRC) measurements in about 150 000 buildings were available for our analysis. The automated classification of lithological units was based on k-medoids clustering via pair-wise Kolmogorov distances between IRC distributions of lithological units. For IRC mapping and prediction we used random forests and Bayesian additive regression trees (BART). RESULTS: The automated classification groups lithological units well in terms of their IRC characteristics. Especially the IRC differences in metamorphic rocks like gneiss are well revealed by this method. The maps produced by random forests soundly represent the regional difference of IRCs in Switzerland and improve the spatial detail compared to existing approaches. We could explain 33% of the variations in IRC data with random forests. Additionally, the influence of a variable evaluated by random forests shows that building characteristics are less important predictors for IRCs than spatial/geological influences. BART could explain 29% of IRC variability and produced maps that indicate the prediction uncertainty. CONCLUSION: Ensemble regression trees are a powerful tool to model and understand the multidimensional influences on IRCs. Automatic clustering of lithological units complements this method by facilitating the interpretation of radon properties of rock types. This study provides an important element for radon risk communication. Future approaches should consider taking into account further variables like soil gas radon measurements as well as more detailed geological information.
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The Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) and four dimensional assimilation variational method (4D-VAR) are both advanced data assimilation methods. The EKF is impractical in large scale problems and 4D-VAR needs much effort in building the adjoint model. In this work we have formulated a data assimilation method that will tackle the above difficulties. The method will be later called the Variational Ensemble Kalman Filter (VEnKF). The method has been tested with the Lorenz95 model. Data has been simulated from the solution of the Lorenz95 equation with normally distributed noise. Two experiments have been conducted, first with full observations and the other one with partial observations. In each experiment we assimilate data with three-hour and six-hour time windows. Different ensemble sizes have been tested to examine the method. There is no strong difference between the results shown by the two time windows in either experiment. Experiment I gave similar results for all ensemble sizes tested while in experiment II, higher ensembles produce better results. In experiment I, a small ensemble size was enough to produce nice results while in experiment II the size had to be larger. Computational speed is not as good as we would want. The use of the Limited memory BFGS method instead of the current BFGS method might improve this. The method has proven succesful. Even if, it is unable to match the quality of analyses of EKF, it attains significant skill in forecasts ensuing from the analysis it has produced. It has two advantages over EKF; VEnKF does not require an adjoint model and it can be easily parallelized.
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Soitinnus: trumpetti, orkesteri.
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The current thesis manuscript studies the suitability of a recent data assimilation method, the Variational Ensemble Kalman Filter (VEnKF), to real-life fluid dynamic problems in hydrology. VEnKF combines a variational formulation of the data assimilation problem based on minimizing an energy functional with an Ensemble Kalman filter approximation to the Hessian matrix that also serves as an approximation to the inverse of the error covariance matrix. One of the significant features of VEnKF is the very frequent re-sampling of the ensemble: resampling is done at every observation step. This unusual feature is further exacerbated by observation interpolation that is seen beneficial for numerical stability. In this case the ensemble is resampled every time step of the numerical model. VEnKF is implemented in several configurations to data from a real laboratory-scale dam break problem modelled with the shallow water equations. It is also tried in a two-layer Quasi- Geostrophic atmospheric flow problem. In both cases VEnKF proves to be an efficient and accurate data assimilation method that renders the analysis more realistic than the numerical model alone. It also proves to be robust against filter instability by its adaptive nature.
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Référence bibliographique : Rol, 58538
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Référence bibliographique : Rol, 58539