Crescimento econômico e restrição externa: evidências empíricas na economia brasileira (1991-2010)

This study aims to investigate the influence of the balance of payments constrained on economic growth in Brazil from 1991 to 2010. With this order, are shown some of the Keynesian balance of payments constrained growth models, inspired by Thirlwall (1979) and Kaldor (1970), which are supported by important points in common, such as adherence to the principle of effective demand. Given that within this theoretical perspective, there is no consensus about the best model to explain the growth rate allowed by the balance of payments constraint, the results are presented by the representative of the empirical literature that addresses the topic, which are necessary for understand the Brazilian case. From the estimation of the income elasticity of imports (0.85) via autoregressive vectors with error correction (VEC), it was calculated five growth rates of income, as predicted by the models of Thirlwall (1979), Thirlwall and Hussain (1982), Moreno-Brid (1998, 2003) and Lourenço et al. (2011) and compared with the actual growth rate. The empirical analysis has shown that: it can not reject the presence of external constraint in the Brazilian economy, there is a strong similarity in growth rates provided by different modeling suggest that growth with external constraint. In addition, when using data in quarterly for the period after 1990 there are no factors that could cause instability in the parameters of the import function (income elasticity and price elasticity of imports) within the period, which indicates that the structural break widely associated with the year 1994 was not confirmed by this study

Modelagem e estimação de parâmetros genéticos e fenotípicos para pesos do nascimento à seleção (378 dias) de machos Nelore

Genetic parameters for weights (17, 942 records), obtained in intervals of 60 days, from the birth to selection (378 days of age), of 2,582 males of the Nellore breed was estimated in univariate analyses by the Maximum Restricted Likelihood method. The models of analysis models included the fixed effects of contemporary groups, month of birth, mother age and age when the weights were collected as covariate. Three models differing in random effects were tested: the model 1 (M1) was adjusted for the direct and maternal addictive genetic effects and maternal permanent environment; in model 2 (M2) the maternal genetic effect was excluded; and the model 3 (M3) was only adjusted for the direct addictive genetic effect. The test of likelihood (LRT) detected significant differences, for all the ages, of M2 and M1 in relation to the simple model (M3), evidencing the importance of the maternal effects. Except for the birth weight (0.40), low values (0.05 to 0.12) of h(2) were found for M1 and M2 until 8 months of age and, after this period, reasonable increase could be observed, reaching 0.28 until 13 months of age. The estimates of the total variance fraction, due to the effect of maternal permanent environment, were high and practically became unaffected between the models 1 and 2. Maternal effects, not necessarily decomposed (in genetic addictive and permanent environment), affected the Nellore males growth. Models that contemplate maternal effects, besides the genetic addictive direct effects, are more realistic to describe the trajectory of the variances in the initial phases of growth of Nelore male calves.

Gelation of siloxane-poly(oxypropylene) composites

The viscoelastic properties of siloxane-poly(oxypropylene) (PPO) nanocomposites prepared by the sol-gel process has been analyzed during gelation by dynamic rheological measurements. The changes of storage and loss moduli, complex viscosity and phase angle has been measured as a function of time showing the newtonian viscosity of the sol in the initial step of gelation, and its progressive transformation to a viscoelastic gel. The rheologic properties have been correlated to mass fractal, nearly linear growth models and percolation theory. This study, completed by quasi-elastic light scattering and Si-29 solid state nuclear magnetic resonance measurements, shows that the mechanisms of gelation of siloxane-PPO hybrids depend on the molecular weight of the polymer and on the pH of the hybrid sol. For hybrids prepared in acid medium, a polymerization involving silicon reactive species located at the extremity of the polymer chains and presenting a functionality f = 2 occurs, forming a fractal structure during the first stage of sol-gel transition. For samples prepared under neutral pH, the fractal growth is only observed for hybrids containing short polymer chains (M-w similar to 130 gmol(-1)). The fractal dimensionality determined from the change in the rheological properties, indicates that the fractal growth mechanism changes from reaction-limited to diffusion-limited aggregation when the molecular weight of the PPO increases from 130 to 4000 gmol(-1) and as catalyst conditions change from acidic to neutral. Near the gel point, these hybrid gels have the typical scaling behavior expected from percolation theory. (C) 2002 Elsevier B.V. B.V. All rights reserved.

Rheological study of the thermoreversible sol-gel transition of sulfate modified zirconyl chloride aqueous sol

The sols prepared by mixing a ZrOCl2 acidified solution to a hot H2SO4 aqueous solutions were studied in order to clarify the mechanism of thermoreversible sol-gel transition observed in this system. The viscoelastic properties of these suspensions were analyzed during the sol-gel transition by dynamic rheological measurements and quasi-elastic light scattering. The rheological properties were correlated to mass fractal and nearly linear growth models, and percolation theory. The results evidence that the thermoreversible sol-gel transition in this system is due to the formation of a network of physically linked aggregates having fractal structure. The decrease of the SO42- contents in the initial solution leads to the decrease of the fractal dimensionality from 2.3 to 1.8, indicating a change of the kinetic mechanism of aggregate growth. Near the gel point these samples have the typical scaling expected from percolation theory. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sol-gel transition in SnO2 colloidal suspensions: viscoelastic properties

This paper describes particle aggregation process during gelation of SnO2 hydrosols. The effect of the concentration of SnO2 colloidal particles on the kinetics of gelation of hydrosols containing PVA (poly(vinyl alcohol)) was analysed by dynamic rheological measurements. The complex viscosity and the storage and loss moduli have been measured during the sol-gel transition and the results correlated to mass fractal growth, nearly linear growth models, and scalar percolation theory. The analysis of the experimental results shows that a linear aggregation occurs in the initial step of the gelation followed by a fractal growth to form a three-dimensional network. Near the gel point this physical gel exhibits the typical scaling expected from an electrical percolation analogy. (C) 1999 Elsevier B.V. B.V. All rights reserved.

Structural change and domestic technological capabilities

Includes bibliography

Dinâmica e desenvolvimento da agricultura familiar: o caso da Vila Amélia, Breves/Pará

Analisa-se, a partir do diagnóstico sócio-ambiental da comunidade de Vila Amélia, no rio Mapuá município de Breves/PA, as redes de relações estabelecidas historicamente entre trabalhadores agroextrativistas e patrões (comerciantes e empresários/proprietários de terra) e as conseqüências desse modelo de interação social para a atual configuração do cenário sócio-político-ambiental nessa comunidade. Parte-se do pressuposto de que a compreensão dessas relações é uma condição sine qua non para se pensar outros modelos de desenvolvimento menos predatórios, menos autoritários e mais socialmente responsáveis. Enfatiza-se aqui algumas questões relacionadas à conservação e à sustentabilidade dos meios produtivos e às desiguais relações de trabalho e controle da terra, focalizando a lógica predominantemente familiar das atividades como um elemento de importância capital no funcionamento dos sistemas agroextrativistas. Partindo da dinâmica de ocupação da região e das características dos núcleos familiares, a pesquisa aponta indicativos para se compreender a ambígua relação de dependência manifestada pelos trabalhadores agroextrativistas e sua resistência à discussão da proposta de desenvolvimento sustentável apresentada pela empresa Ecomapuá. Discute, ainda, possibilidades de superação dessa relação pela organização sócio-política, fator essencial para a construção de toda e qualquer proposição de desenvolvimento que pretenda envolver, de fato, as populações locais como sujeito de seu próprio processo histórico, com objetivos, desejos, aspirações e sonhos que é preciso considerar.

Biologia reprodutiva e dinâmica populacional de Hypancistrus zebra Isbrücker & Nijssen, 1991 (Siluriformes, Loricariidae), no rio Xingu, Amazônia brasileira

Hypancistrus zebra é uma espécie ornamental, endêmica e rara da região do Médio – Baixo Rio Xingu, a qual apresenta forte demanda do mercado de peixes ornamentais internacional, que criou uma forte pressão de exploração associada a esta espécie. Atualmente, H.zebra encontra-se na lista brasileira de fauna ameaçada de extinção e sua captura está proibida. Sabe-se que mesmo proibida, a mesma continua sendo capturada e exportada ilegalmente, aliada a isso a construção da Hidrelétrica de Belo Monte em seu trecho de distribuição, que ameaça a sua área de distribuição geográfica e a falta de informações sobre sua biologia e ecologia dificultam ações de ordenamento para esta espécie. De modo que, se objetivou neste trabalho estudar aspectos da biologia reprodutiva e dinâmica populacional para contribuir com medidas de conservação para esta espécie. Exemplares de H. zebra foram capturados mensalmente de março de 2009 a fevereiro de 2010, através de mergulho com compressor, no Rio Xingu, entre a localidade de Gorgulho da Rita e a Vila de Belo Monte. Os indivíduos capturados foram pesados e medidos (peso e comprimento total). As gônadas foram retiradas e imediatamente fixadas em Solução Bouin. Seguiram-se as técnicas histológicas de rotina. Os estágios de maturação gonadal foram descritos com base na presença de células germinativas em diferentes estádios de desenvolvimento. Através dos dados de freqüência dos comprimentos foram feitas estimativas dos parâmetros populacionais tais como: modelos de crescimento, recrutamento, mortalidade, rendimento por recruta e tamanho de primeira maturidade gonadal. A espécie apresentou uma desova sazonal com dois picos entre as estações de transição entre seca e cheia (e vice-versa) do rio, e dois períodos de recrutamento, com taxas de crescimento diferenciadas. Estimou-se que a espécie possui uma longevidade de cinco anos, e que está no limite do rendimento máximo sustentável, o que se caracteriza como uma situação perigosa para a espécie, pois qualquer aumento do esforço irá comprometer o estoque e ainda não se sabe que impactos ocorrerão em decorrência das modificações provocadas em seu habitat pela construção da hidrelétrica.

Generalized Metropolis dynamics with a generalized master equation: An approach for time-independent and time-dependent Monte Carlo simulations of generalized spin systems

The extension of Boltzmann-Gibbs thermostatistics, proposed by Tsallis, introduces an additional parameter q to the inverse temperature beta. Here, we show that a previously introduced generalized Metropolis dynamics to evolve spin models is not local and does not obey the detailed energy balance. In this dynamics, locality is only retrieved for q = 1, which corresponds to the standard Metropolis algorithm. Nonlocality implies very time-consuming computer calculations, since the energy of the whole system must be reevaluated when a single spin is flipped. To circumvent this costly calculation, we propose a generalized master equation, which gives rise to a local generalized Metropolis dynamics that obeys the detailed energy balance. To compare the different critical values obtained with other generalized dynamics, we perform Monte Carlo simulations in equilibrium for the Ising model. By using short-time nonequilibrium numerical simulations, we also calculate for this model the critical temperature and the static and dynamical critical exponents as functions of q. Even for q not equal 1, we show that suitable time-evolving power laws can be found for each initial condition. Our numerical experiments corroborate the literature results when we use nonlocal dynamics, showing that short-time parameter determination works also in this case. However, the dynamics governed by the new master equation leads to different results for critical temperatures and also the critical exponents affecting universality classes. We further propose a simple algorithm to optimize modeling the time evolution with a power law, considering in a log-log plot two successive refinements.

Preparation and characterisation of refractory whiskers and selected alumina composites

A whisker is a common name of single crystalline inorganic fibre of small dimensions, typically 0.5-1 μm in diameter and 20-50 μm in length. Whiskers are mainly used as reinforcement of ceramics. This work describes the synthesis and characterisation of new whisker types. Ti0.33Ta0.33Nb0.33CxN1-x, TiB2, B4C, and LaxCe1-xB6 have been prepared by carbothermal vapour–liquid–solid (CTR-VLS) growth mechanisms in the temperature range 900-1800°C, in argon or nitrogen. Generally, carbon and different suitable oxides were used as whisker precursors. The oxides reacted via a carbothermal reduction process. A halogenide salt was added to form gaseous metal halogenides or oxohalogenides and small amount of a transition metal was added to catalyse the whisker growth. In this mechanism, the whisker constituents are dissolved into the catalyst, in liquid phase, which becomes supersaturated. Then a whisker could nucleate and grow out under continuous feed of constituents. The syntheses of TiC, TiB2, and B4C were followed at ordinary synthesis conditions by means of mass spectrometry (MS), thermogravimetry (TG), differential thermal analysis (DTA) and quenching. The main reaction starting temperatures and reaction time for the different mixtures was revealed, and it was found that the temperature inside the crucible during the reactions was up to 100°C below the furnace set-point, due to endothermic nature of the reactions. Quench experiments showed that whiskers were formed already when reaching the temperature plateau, but the yield increased fast with the holding time and reached a maximum after about 20-30 minutes. Growth models for whisker formation have been proposed. Alumina based composites reinforced by (2-5 vol.%) TiCnano and TiNnano and 25 vol.% of carbide, and boride phases (whiskers and particulates of TiC, TiN, TaC, NbC, (Ti,Ta)C, (Ti,Ta,Nb)C, SiC, TiB2 and B4C) have been prepared by a developed aqueous colloidal processing route followed by hot pressing for 90 min at 1700°C, 28 MPa or SPS sintering for 5 minutes at 1200-1600°C and 75 MPa. Vickers indentation measurements showed that the lowest possible sintering temperature is to prefer from mechanical properties point of view. In the TiNnano composites the fracture mode was typically intergranular, while it was transgranular in the SiCnano composites. The whisker and particulate composites have been compared in terms of e.g. microstructure and mechanical properties. Generally, additions of whiskers yielded higher fracture toughness compared to particulates. Composites of commercially available SiC whiskers showed best mechanical properties with a low spread but all the other whisker phases, especially TiB2, exhibited a great potential as reinforcement materials.

Informationsgehalt von ERS-1/-2 SAR-Daten zur Erfassung der Arteninventare und des Zustandes landwirtschaftlich genutzter Böden und Vegetation

Auf einer drei Anbauperioden umfassenden Ground Truth Datenbasis wird der Informationsgehalt multitemporaler ERS-1/-2 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) Daten zur Erfassung der Arteninventare und des Zustandes landwirtschaftlich genutzter Böden und Vegetation in Agrarregionen Bayerns evaluiert.Dazu wird ein für Radardaten angepaßtes, multitemporales, auf landwirtschaftlichen Schlägen beruhendes Klassifizierungsverfahren ausgearbeitet, das auf bildstatistischen Parametern der ERS-Zeitreihen beruht. Als überwachte Klassifizierungsverfahren wird vergleichend der Maximum-Likelihood-Klassifikator und ein Neuronales-Backpropagation-Netz eingesetzt. Die auf Radarbildkanälen beruhenden Gesamtgenauigkeiten variieren zwischen 75 und 85%. Darüber hinaus wird gezeigt, daß die interferometrische Kohärenz und die Kombination mit Bildkanälen optischer Sensoren (Landsat-TM, SPOT-PAN und IRS-1C-PAN) zur Verbesserung der Klassifizierung beitragen. Gleichermaßen können die Klassifizierungsergebnisse durch eine vorgeschaltete Grobsegmentierung des Untersuchungsgebietes in naturräumlich homogene Raumeinheiten verbessert werden. Über die Landnutzungsklassifizierung hinaus, werden weitere bio- und bodenphysikalische Parameter aus den SAR-Daten anhand von Regressionsmodellen abgeleitet. Im Mittelpunkt stehen die Paramter oberflächennahen Bodenfeuchte vegetationsfreier/-armer Flächen sowie die Biomasse landwirtschaftlicher Kulturen. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, daß mit ERS-1/-2 SAR-Daten eine Messung der Bodenfeuchte möglich ist, wenn Informationen zur Bodenrauhigkeit vorliegen. Hinsichtlich der biophysikalischen Parameter sind signifikante Zusammenhänge zwischen der Frisch- bzw. Trockenmasse des Vegetationsbestandes verschiedener Getreide und dem Radarsignal nachweisbar. Die Biomasse-Informationen können zur Korrektur von Wachstumsmodellen genutzt werden und dazu beitragen, die Genauigkeit von Ertragsschätzungen zu steigern.

Untersuchung magnetischer Nanostrukturen mittels Rastertunnelspektroskopie und Kerr-Magnetometrie am Beispiel von Fe, Co, Co-Fe und Fe-Mn Nanostrukturen

Nach einer kurzen Einführung in die Entwicklung der magnetischen Anwendungen, werden in Kapitel 2 und 3 die physikalischen Grundlagen der Messmethoden, insbesondere die Rastertunnelspektroskopie und Kerr-Magnetometrie, sowie der experimentelle Aufbau erläutert. Kapitel 4 beschäftigt sich mit den magnetischen Eigenschaften von quasi ein-dimensionalen ferromagnetischen Nanostreifen und Monolagen, die durch Selbstorganisation auf einem Wolfram(110)-Einkristall mit vizinaler und glatter Oberfläche präpariert werden. Hierbei wird die Temperaturabhängigkeit der magnetischen Größen, wie Remanenz, Sättigungsmagnetisierung und Suszeptibilität, sowie die Auswirkung einer Abdeckung des Systems auf die Domänenwandenergie und Anisotropie untersucht. Zusätzlich wird die Kopplung von parallelen Nanostreifen in Abhängigkeit des Streifenabstandes betrachtet. In Kapitel 5 werden das Wachstum und die Morphologie von Co-Monolagen auf W(110) untersucht. Der Übergang von pseudomorphem zu dicht gepacktem Wachstum in der Monolage wird mit Hilfe der Rastertunnelspektroskopie sichtbar gemacht, ebenso wie unterschiedliche Stapelfolgen in Tripellagen Co-Systemen. Atomar aufgelöste Rastertunnelmikroskopie erlaubt die genauen Atompositionen der Oberfläche zu bestimmen und mit theoretischen Wachstumsmodellen zu vergleichen. Auf die Untersuchung zwei-dimensionaler binärer Co-Fe und Fe-Mn Legierungen auf W(110) wird in Kapitel 6 eingegangen. Mit einer Präparationstemperatur von T=520 K ist es möglich, atomar geordnete Co-Fe Legierungsmonolagen wachsen zu lassen. Ein direkter Zusammenhang zwischen der Magnetisierung und der lokalen Zustandsdichte in Abhängigkeit der Legierungszusammensetzung wird gezeigt.

Politiche Antitrust e crescita economica

Negli ultimi anni le istituzioni e la regolamentazione hanno svolto un ruolo sempre più importante nell’analisi della crescita economica. Tuttavia, non è facile interpretare le istituzioni e gli effetti dei regolamenti sulla crescita attraverso indicatori che tendono a “misurare” le istituzioni. Lo scopo di questa ricerca è analizzare la relazione di lungo periodo tra la crescita economica e la regolamentazione e il ruolo della regolamentazione antitrust sulla crescita economica. La stima econometrica dei modelli di crescita con la concorrenza e gli indicatori di potere di mercato si base su un dataset appositamente costruito che copre 211 Paesi, su un arco temporale massimo di 50 anni (da 1960 a 2009). In particolare, cerchiamo di identificare un quadro analitico volto a integrare l’analisi istituzionale ed economica al fine di valutare il ruolo della regolamentazione e, più in generale, il ruolo delle istituzioni nella crescita economica. Dopo una revisione della letteratura teorica ed empirica sulla crescita e le istituzioni, vi presentiamo l’analisi dell'impatto normativo (RIA) in materia di concorrenza, e analizziamo le principali misure di regolamentazione, la governance e le misure antitrust. Per rispondere alla nostra domanda di ricerca si stimano modelli di crescita prendendo in considerazione tre diverse misure di regolamentazione: la Regulation Impact (RI), la Governance (GOV), e la libertà economica (LIB). Nel modello a effetti fissi, RI, gli effetti della legislazione antitrust sulla crescita economica sono significativi e positivi, e gli effetti di durata antitrust sono significativi, ma negativi. Nel pannel dinamico, GOV, gli effetti dell’indicatore di governance sulla crescita sono notevoli, ma negativo. Nel pannel dinamico, LIB, gli effetti della LIB sono significativi e negativi.

Multidimensional analysis of complex networks

Complex Networks analysis turn out to be a very promising field of research, testified by many research projects and works that span different fields. Those analysis have been usually focused on characterize a single aspect of the system and a study that considers many informative axes along with a network evolve is lacking. We propose a new multidimensional analysis that is able to inspect networks in the two most important dimensions, space and time. To achieve this goal, we studied them singularly and investigated how the variation of the constituting parameters drives changes to the network as a whole. By focusing on space dimension, we characterized spatial alteration in terms of abstraction levels. We proposed a novel algorithm that, by applying a fuzziness function, can reconstruct networks under different level of details. We verified that statistical indicators depend strongly on the granularity with which a system is described and on the class of networks. We keep fixed the space axes and we isolated the dynamics behind networks evolution process. We detected new instincts that trigger social networks utilization and spread the adoption of novel communities. We formalized this enhanced social network evolution by adopting special nodes (called sirens) that, thanks to their ability to attract new links, were able to construct efficient connection patterns. We simulated the dynamics of the system by considering three well-known growth models. Applying this framework to real and synthetic networks, we showed that the sirens, even when used for a limited time span, effectively shrink the time needed to get a network in mature state. In order to provide a concrete context of our findings, we formalized the cost of setting up such enhancement and provided the best combinations of system's parameters, such as number of sirens, time span of utilization and attractiveness.

Existence and Uniqueness of Equilibrium in Nonoptimal Unbounded Infinite Horizon Economies

In applied work in macroeconomics and finance, nonoptimal infinite horizon economies are often studied in the the state space is unbounded. Important examples of such economies are single vector growth models with production externalities, valued fiat money, monopolistic competition, and/or distortionary government taxation. Although sufficient conditions for existence and uniqueness of Markovian equilibrium are well known for the compact state space case, no similar sufficient conditions exist for unbounded growth. This paper provides such a set of sufficient conditions, and also present a computational algorithm that will prove asymptotically consistent when computing Markovian equilibrium.