Alive SMC^2: Bayesian model selection for low-count time series models with intractable likelihoods

In this paper we present a new method for performing Bayesian parameter inference and model choice for low count time series models with intractable likelihoods. The method involves incorporating an alive particle filter within a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm to create a novel pseudo-marginal algorithm, which we refer to as alive SMC^2. The advantages of this approach over competing approaches is that it is naturally adaptive, it does not involve between-model proposals required in reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo and does not rely on potentially rough approximations. The algorithm is demonstrated on Markov process and integer autoregressive moving average models applied to real biological datasets of hospital-acquired pathogen incidence, animal health time series and the cumulative number of poison disease cases in mule deer.

Transdimensional sequential Monte Carlo using variational Bayes — SMCVB

A new transdimensional Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm called SM- CVB is proposed. In an SMC approach, a weighted sample of particles is generated from a sequence of probability distributions which ‘converge’ to the target distribution of interest, in this case a Bayesian posterior distri- bution. The approach is based on the use of variational Bayes to propose new particles at each iteration of the SMCVB algorithm in order to target the posterior more efficiently. The variational-Bayes-generated proposals are not limited to a fixed dimension. This means that the weighted particle sets that arise can have varying dimensions thereby allowing us the option to also estimate an appropriate dimension for the model. This novel algorithm is outlined within the context of finite mixture model estimation. This pro- vides a less computationally demanding alternative to using reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo kernels within an SMC approach. We illustrate these ideas in a simulated data analysis and in applications.

High-Pressure Kinetics of Vinyl Polyperoxides

This is the first report on studies carried out in detail on high-pressure oxygen copolymerization (> 50 psi) of the vinyl monomers styrene and alpha-methylstyrene (AMS). The saturation pressure of oxygen for AMS oxidation, hitherto obscure, is found to be 300 psi. Whereas the ease of oxidation is more favorable for styrene, the rate and yield of polyperoxide formation are higher for AMS. This is explained on the basis of the reactivity of the corresponding alkyl and peroxy radicals. Below 50 degrees C, degradation of the poly(styrene peroxide) formed is about 2.5 times less than that observed above 50 degrees C, so much so that it gives a break in the rate curve, and thereafter the rate is lowered. Normal free radical kinetics is followed before the break point, after which the monomer and initiator exponents become unusually high. This is interpreted on the basis of chain transfer to the degradation products. The low molecular weight of polyperoxides has been attributed to the (i) low reactivity of RO(2)(.) toward the monomer, (ii) chain transfer to degradation products, (iii) facile cleavage of O-O bond, followed by unzipping to nonradical products, and (iv) higher stability of the reinitiating radicals. At lower temperatures, (i) predominates, whereas at higher temperatures, chiefly (ii)-(iv) are the case.

Metal chelates in vinyl polymerization: Bulk polymerization of acrylonitrile initiated by Cu(II)-imine complexes

This article deals with the kinetics and mechanism of acrylonitrile (AN) polymerization initiated by Cu(II)-4-anilino 3-pentene 2-one[Cu(II)ANIPO], Cu(II)-4-p-toluedeno 3-pentene 2-one [Cu(II)TPO], and Cu(II)-4-p-nitroanilino 3-pentene 2-one [Cu(II)NAPO] in bulk at 60°C. The polymerization is free radical in nature. The exponent of initiator(I) is 0.5. The initiation step is a complex formation between the chelate and monomer and subsequent decomposition of the intermediate complex giving rise to free radical and Cu(I). This is substantiated by ultraviolet (UV) and electron spin resonance (ESR) studies. The activation energies and kinetic and chain transfer constants have also been evaluated.

Metal Chelates in Vinyl Polymerization: Kinetics and Mechanism of Acrylonitrile Polymerization Initiated by Cu(I1) Imine Complexes

The free radical polymerization of acrylonitrile (AN) initiated by Cu(I1) 4-anilino 3-pentene 2-one [Cu(II) ANIPO] Cu(II), 4-p-toluedeno 3-pentene 2-one [Cu(II) TPO], and Cu(I1) 4-p-nitroanilino 3-pentene 2-one [Cu(II) NAPO] was studied in benzene at 50 and 60°C and in carbon tetrachloride (CCld), dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO), and methanol (MeOH) at 60°C. Although the polymerization proceeded in a heterogeneous phase, it followed the kinetics of a homogeneous process. The monomer exponents were 22 at two different temperatures and in different solvents. The square-root dependence of R, on initiator concentration and higher monomer exponents accounted for a 1:2 complex formation between the chelate and monomer. The complex formatign was shown by ultraviolet (UV) study. The activation energies, kinetics, and chain transfer constants were also evaluated.

Metal chelates in vinyl polymerization: Kinetics and mechanism of acrylonitrile polymerization initiated by Cu(II) imine complexes

The free radical polymerization of acrylonitrile (AN) initiated by Cu(II) 4-anilino 2-one [Cu(II) ANIPO] Cu(II), 4-p-toluedeno 3-pentene 2-one [Cu(II) TPO], and Cu(II) 4-p-nitroanilino 3-pentene 2-one [Cu(II) NAPO] was studied in benzene at 50 and 60°C and in carbon tetrachloride (CCl4), dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO), and methanol (MeOH) at 60°C. Although the polymerization proceeded in a heterogeneous phase, it followed the kinetics of a homogeneous process. The monomer exponents were 2 at two different temperatures and in different solvents. The square-root dependence of Rp on initiator concentration and higher monomer exponents accounted for a 1:2 complex formation between the chelate and monomer. The complex formation was shown by ultraviolet (UV) study. The activation energies, kinetics, and chain transfer constants were also evaluated.

Bayesian mixture model estimation of aerosol particle size distributions

In this paper, we examine approaches to estimate a Bayesian mixture model at both single and multiple time points for a sample of actual and simulated aerosol particle size distribution (PSD) data. For estimation of a mixture model at a single time point, we use Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) to estimate mixture model parameters including the number of components which is assumed to be unknown. We compare the results of this approach to a commonly used estimation method in the aerosol physics literature. As PSD data is often measured over time, often at small time intervals, we also examine the use of an informative prior for estimation of the mixture parameters which takes into account the correlated nature of the parameters. The Bayesian mixture model offers a promising approach, providing advantages both in estimation and inference.

Thermal decomposition of methylammonium perchlorate

The thermal decomposition of methylammonium perchlorate (MAP) has been studied under isothermal and non-isothermal conditions. Differential thermal analysis of MAP showed, in addition to the exotherm due to decomposition, another exotherm at 408° which was observed for the first time. Chemical analysis and the infrared spectrum of the residue left behind after the decomposition proved it to contain NH4ClO4. The results have been explained on the basis of a methyl group transfer in addition to proton transfer in the decomposition process.

Stabilization of thermal degradation of poly(methyl methacrylate) by polysulfide polymers

The thermal degradation of poly(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA) in the presence of polysulfide polymers, namely, poly( styrene disulfide) (PSD) and poly(styrene tetrasulfide) (PST) was studied using thermogravimetry (TG) and direct pyrolysis-mass spectrometric (DP-MS) analysis. Both PSD and PST were found to stabilizethe PMMA degradation, which was explained by both radical recombination and a chain-transfer mechanism. (C) 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Dynamics of crystal size distributions with size-dependent rates

The growth and dissolution dynamics of nonequilibrium crystal size distributions (CSDs) can be determined by solving the governing population balance equations (PBEs) representing reversible addition or dissociation. New PBEs are considered that intrinsically incorporate growth dispersion and yield complete CSDs. We present two approaches to solving the PBEs, a moment method and a numerical scheme. The results of the numerical scheme agree with the moment technique, which can be solved exactly when powers on mass-dependent growth and dissolution rate coefficients are either zero or one. The numerical scheme is more general and can be applied when the powers of the rate coefficients are non-integers or greater than unity. The influence of the size dependent rates on the time variation of the CSDs indicates that as equilibrium is approached, the CSDs become narrow when the exponent on the growth rate is less than the exponent on the dissolution rate. If the exponent on the growth rate is greater than the exponent on the dissolution rate, then the polydispersity continues to broaden. The computation method applies for crystals large enough that interfacial stability issues, such as ripening, can be neglected. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

High-pressure kinetics of oxidative copolymerization of styrene with alpha-methyl styrene

This is the first report on the study carried out on high-pressure free-radical initiated oxidated copolymerization of styrene (STY) with alpha-methylstyrene (AMS) at various temperatures (45-65degreesC) at constant pressure (100 psi) and then at various pressures (50-300 psi) keeping the temperature (50degreesC) constant. The compositions of the copolyperoxides obtained from the H-1 NMT spectra were utilized to determine the reactivity ratios of the monomers. The reactivity ratios indicate that STY forms an ideal copolyperoxide with AMS and the copolyperoxide is richer in AMS. The effect of temperature and oxygen pressure in the reactivity ratios of the monomers was studied. The rates of copolymerization (R-p) were used to determine the overall activation energies (E-a) and activation volume (DeltaV(#)) of copolymerization. The unusually higher values of the DeltaV(#) may be due to the pressurizing fluid oxygen which itself is a reactant in the copolymerization, the side reactions, and the chain-transfer reactions occuring during copolymerizations.

Bayesian inference for multidimensional NMR image reconstruction

Reconstruction of an image from a set of projections has been adapted to generate multidimensional nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectra, which have discrete features that are relatively sparsely distributed in space. For this reason, a reliable reconstruction can be made from a small number of projections. This new concept is called Projection Reconstruction NMR (PR-NMR). In this paper, multidimensional NMR spectra are reconstructed by Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC). This statistical method generates samples under the assumption that each peak consists of a small number of parameters: position of peak centres, peak amplitude, and peak width. In order to find the number of peaks and shape, RJMCMC has several moves: birth, death, merge, split, and invariant updating. The reconstruction schemes are tested on a set of six projections derived from the three-dimensional 700 MHz HNCO spectrum of a protein HasA.

Synthesis and characterisation of novel functional polyolefin containing sulfonic acid groups

The strong polar group, sulfonic acid, has successfully been introduced into ethylene/allylbenzene copolymers without degradation or crosslinking via chlorosulfonation reaction with chlorosulfonic acid as a chlorosulforiating agent in 1, 1,2,2-tetrachloroethane followed by hydrolysis. The degree of sulforiation (DS) can be easily controlled by changing the ratio of chlorosulfonic acid to the pendant phenyls of the copolymer. The microstructure of sulfonated copolymers were unambiguously revealed by H-1 NMR and H-1-H-1 COSY spectral analyses, which indicates that all the sulforiation reactions exclusively took place at the para-position of the aromatic rings.

Synthesis of novel functional polyolefin containing carboxylic acid via Friedel-Crafts acylation reaction

The strong polar group, carboxylic acid, has triumphantly been introduced into ethylene and allylbenzene copolymers without obvious degradation or crosslinking via Friedel-Crafts (F-C) acylation reaction with glutaric anhydride (GA), succinic anhydride (SA) and phthalic anhydride (PA) in the presence of anhydrous aluminum chloride in carbon disulfide. Some important reaction parameters were examined in order to optimize the acylation process. In the optimum reaction conditions, almost all of the phenyls can be acylated with any anhydride. The microstructure of acylated copolymer was characterized by Fr-IR, H-1 NMR and H-1-H-1 COSY. All the peaks of acylated copolymers can be accurately attributed, which indicates that all the acylation reactions occur only at the para-positions of the substituent of the aromatic rings. The thermal behavior was studied by differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), showing that the melting temperatures (T(m)s) of acylated copolymers with GA firstly decrease slowly and then increase significantly with the increase of the amount of carboxyl acid groups.