Temperature and precipitation effects on wheat yield across a European transect: a crop model ensemble analysis using impact response surfaces

This study explored the utility of the impact response surface (IRS) approach for investigating model ensemble crop yield responses under a large range of changes in climate. IRSs of spring and winter wheat Triticum aestivum yields were constructed from a 26-member ensemble of process-based crop simulation models for sites in Finland, Germany and Spain across a latitudinal transect. The sensitivity of modelled yield to systematic increments of changes in temperature (-2 to +9°C) and precipitation (-50 to +50%) was tested by modifying values of baseline (1981 to 2010) daily weather, with CO2 concentration fixed at 360 ppm. The IRS approach offers an effective method of portraying model behaviour under changing climate as well as advantages for analysing, comparing and presenting results from multi-model ensemble simulations. Though individual model behaviour occasionally departed markedly from the average, ensemble median responses across sites and crop varieties indicated that yields decline with higher temperatures and decreased precipitation and increase with higher precipitation. Across the uncertainty ranges defined for the IRSs, yields were more sensitive to temperature than precipitation changes at the Finnish site while sensitivities were mixed at the German and Spanish sites. Precipitation effects diminished under higher temperature changes. While the bivariate and multi-model characteristics of the analysis impose some limits to interpretation, the IRS approach nonetheless provides additional insights into sensitivities to inter-model and inter-annual variability. Taken together, these sensitivities may help to pinpoint processes such as heat stress, vernalisation or drought effects requiring refinement in future model development.

Servicescape symbolism

In order to drive sustainable financial profitability, service firms make significant investments in creating service environments that consumers will prefer over the environments of their competitors. To date, servicescape research is over-focused on understanding consumers’ emotional and physiological responses to servicescape attributes, rather than taking a holistic view of how consumers cognitively interpret servicescapes. This thesis argues that consumers will cognitively ascribe symbolic meanings to servicescapes and then evaluate if those meanings are congruent with their sense of Self in order to form a preference for a servicescape. Consequently, this thesis takes a Self Theory approach to servicescape symbolism to address the following broad research question: How do ascribed symbolic meanings influence servicescape preference? Using a three-study, mixed-method approach, this thesis investigates the symbolic meanings consumers ascribe to servicescapes and empirically tests whether the joint effects of congruence between consumer Self and the symbolic meanings ascribed to servicescapes influence consumers’ servicescape preference. First, Study One identifies the symbolic meanings ascribed to salient servicescape attributes using a combination of repertory tests and laddering techniques within 19 semi-structured individual depth interviews. Study Two modifies an existing scale to create a symbolic servicescape meaning scale in order to measure the symbolic meanings ascribed to servicescapes. Finally, Study Three utilises the Self-Congruity Model to empirically examine the joint effects of consumer Self and servicescape on consumers’ preference for servicescapes. Using polynomial regression with response surface analysis, 14 joint effect models demonstrate that both Self-Servicescape incongruity and congruity influence consumers’ preference for servicescapes. Combined, the findings of three studies suggest that the symbolic meanings ascribed to servicescapes and their (in)congruities with consumers’ sense of self can be used to predict consumers’ preferences for servicescapes. These findings have several key theoretical and practical contributions to services marketing.

Assessing eco-environmental performance of agricultural production in OECD countries : combination of soil surface, soil system and farm gate methods of nutrient auditing

Nitrogen balance is increasingly used as an indicator of the environmental performance of agricultural sector in national, international, and global contexts. There are three main methods of accounting the national nitrogen balance: farm gate, soil surface, and soil system. OECD (2008) recently reported the nitrogen and phosphorus balances for member countries for the 1985 - 2004 period using the soil surface method. The farm gate and soil system methods were also used in some international projects. Some studies have provided the comparison among these methods and the conclusion is mixed. The motivation of this present paper was to combine these three methods to provide a more detailed auditing of the nitrogen balance and flows for national agricultural production. In addition, the present paper also provided a new strategy of using reliable international and national data sources to calculate nitrogen balance using the farm gate method. The empirical study focused on the nitrogen balance of OECD countries for the period from 1985 to 2003. The N surplus sent to the total environment of OECD surged dramatically in early 1980s, gradually decreased during 1990s but exhibited an increasing trends in early 2000s. The overall N efficiency however fluctuated without a clear increasing trend. The eco-environmental ranking shows that Australia and Ireland were the worst while Korea and Greece were the best.

Agility in consumer retail: sense-response alignment through the eyes of customers

In hyper competition, firms that are agile: sensing and responding better to customer requirements tend to be more successful and achieve supernormal profits. In spite of the widely accepted importance of customer agility, research is limited on this construct. The limited research also has predominantly focussed on the firm’s perspective of agility. However, we propose that the customers are better positioned to determine how well a firm is responding to their requirements (aka a firm’s customer agility). Taking the customers’ stand point, we address the issue of sense and respond alignment in two perspectives-matching and mediating. Based on data collected from customers in a field study, we tested hypothesis pertaining to the two methods of alignment using polynomial regression and response surface methodology. The results provide a good explanation for the role of both forms of alignment on customer satisfaction. Implication for research and practice are discussed.

Process variability-aware statistical hybrid modeling of dynamic power dissipation in 65 nm CMOS designs

A generalized technique is proposed for modeling the effects of process variations on dynamic power by directly relating the variations in process parameters to variations in dynamic power of a digital circuit. The dynamic power of a 2-input NAND gate is characterized by mixed-mode simulations, to be used as a library element for 65mn gate length technology. The proposed methodology is demonstrated with a multiplier circuit built using the NAND gate library, by characterizing its dynamic power through Monte Carlo analysis. The statistical technique of Response. Surface Methodology (RSM) using Design of Experiments (DOE) and Least Squares Method (LSM), are employed to generate a "hybrid model" for gate power to account for simultaneous variations in multiple process parameters. We demonstrate that our hybrid model based statistical design approach results in considerable savings in the power budget of low power CMOS designs with an error of less than 1%, with significant reductions in uncertainty by atleast 6X on a normalized basis, against worst case design.

Reliability Analysis of Earth Dams

In the present study, results of reliability analyses of four selected rehabilitated earth dam sections, i.e., Chang, Tapar, Rudramata, and Kaswati, under pseudostatic loading conditions, are presented. Using the response surface methodology, in combination with first order reliability method and numerical analysis, the reliability index (beta) values are obtained and results are interpreted in conjunction with conventional factor of safety values. The influence of considering variability in the input soil shear strength parameters, horizontal seismic coefficient (alpha(h)), and location of reservoir full level on the stability assessment of the earth dam sections is discussed in the probabilistic framework. A comparison of results with those obtained from other method of reliability analysis, viz., Monte Carlo simulations combined with limit equilibrium approach, provided a basis for discussing the stability of earth dams in probabilistic terms, and the results of the analysis suggest that the considered earth dam sections are reliable and are expected to perform satisfactorily.

Aitosuklaa jäätelöpuikon kuorrutteena

Tutkimuksen kirjallisuuskatsauksessa keskityttiin jäätelöpuikkoihin, erilaisiin suklaakuorrutteisiin ja elintarvikkeiden kuorruttamiseen suklaalla. Lisäksi kirjallisuuskatsauksessa perehdyttiin suklaan koostumukseen, nestemäisen suklaan virtausominaisuuksiin ja koostumuksen ja virtausominaisuuksien välisiin vuorovaikutuksiin. Kokeellisessa osassa tavoitteena oli selvittää, miten maitosuklaakuorrutteen rasvapitoisuuden, emulgointiainepitoisuuden ja kuorrutteen lämpötilanvaihtelut vaikuttavat kuorrutteen viskositeettiin, myötöjännitykseen, jähmettymisaikaan ja jäätelöpuikon päälle jäävän kuorrutteen määrään. Erityisesti pyrittiin selvittämään, miten jäätelöpuikon päälle jäävän kuorrutteen määrää saadaan säädeltyä kuorrutteen rasvapitoisuutta, emulgointiainepitoisuutta ja lämpötilaa muuttamalla. Tutkimuksen koeasetelma tehtiin Box-Behnken-mallilla. Selittäviksi muuttujiksi tutkimukseen valittiin kuorrutteen rasvan määrä, emulgointiaineen määrä ja kuorrutteen lämpötila jäätelöpuikkoja kuorrutettaessa. Vastemuuttujina oli kuorrutteen jähmettymisaika, viskositeetti, myötöjännitys ja jäätelöpuikon päälle jäävän kuorrutteen määrä. Tulokset käsiteltiin regressioanalyysin avulla. Muuttujien välisiä vuorovaikutuksia tutkittiin vastepintamallilla. Vastemuuttujien välisiä korrelaatioita tutkittaessa käytettiin Pearsonin korrelaatiokerrointa. Kuorrutteen rasvan määrän lisääntyminen vähensi tilastollisesti merkitsevästi jäätelöpuikon päälle jäävän kuorrutteen määrää, kuorrutteen jähmettymisaikaa, viskositeettia ja myötöjännitystä. Emulgointiaineen määrän lisääminen kuorrutteessa pienensi kuorrutteen määrää jäätelöpuikon päällä, kuorrutteen jähmettymisaikaa ja kuorrutteen myötöjännitystä. Kuorrutteen lämpötilan lisääminen jäätelöpuikkoja kuorrutettaessa pienensi kuorrutteen määrää ja viskositeettia. Kuorrutteen jähmettymisaika sen sijaan piteni lämpötilaa lisättäessä. Tutkimuksen perusteella voidaan sanoa, että jäätelöpuikkoja kastettaessa suklaakuorrutteen lämpötila, rasvan määrä ja lesitiinin määrä vaikuttivat jäätelöpuikon päälle jäävän kuorrutteen määrään. Vastepintamallinnuksen käyttö soveltui hyvin suklaakuorrutteen määrän tutkimiseen. Sen avulla saatiin selvitettyä, miten jäätelöpuikon päälle jäävän kuorrutteen määrää saadaan säädeltyä muuttamalla kuorrutteen emulgointiainepitoisuutta, rasvapitoisuutta ja lämpötilaa.

Seismic response of a long span cable

The dynamic response of a single span cable due to a travelling seismic excitation is studied in this paper. The influence of propagation time between the supports is investigated in detail. The importance of considering both vertical and longitudinal equations of motion in the analysis is highlighted. The results indicate the considerable influence of the time-lagged support motions on the cable dynamic tension. A modal combination rule based on the response spectrum method is developed to arrive at the peak estimates of the cable response. Some significant aspects of cable behaviour, especially under horizontal support motion, are discussed.

Amplitude Frequency Response Measurement: A Simple Technique

A simple method is described to combine a modern function generator and a digital oscilloscope to configure a setup that can directly measure the amplitude frequency response of a system. This is achieved by synchronously triggering both instruments, with the function generator operated in the ``Linear-Sweep'' frequency mode, while the oscilloscope is operated in the ``Envelope'' acquisition mode. Under these conditions, the acquired envelopes directly correspond to the (input and output signal) spectra, whose ratio yields the amplitude frequency response. The method is easy to configure, automatic, time-efficient, and does not require any external control or interface or programming. This method is ideally suited to impart hands-on experience in sweep frequency response measurements, demonstrate resonance phenomenon in transformer windings, explain the working principle of an impedance analyzer, practically exhibit properties of network functions, and so on. The proposed method is an inexpensive alternative to existing commercial equipment meant for this job and is also an effective teaching aid. Details of its implementation, along with some practical measurements on an actual transformer, are presented.

Methodology for Pavement Design Reliability and Back Analysis Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation

Given the increasing cost of designing and building new highway pavements, reliability analysis has become vital to ensure that a given pavement performs as expected in the field. Recognizing the importance of failure analysis to safety, reliability, performance, and economy, back analysis has been employed in various engineering applications to evaluate the inherent uncertainties of the design and analysis. The probabilistic back analysis method formulated on Bayes' theorem and solved using the Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation method with a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm has proved to be highly efficient to address this issue. It is also quite flexible and is applicable to any type of prior information. In this paper, this method has been used to back-analyze the parameters that influence the pavement life and to consider the uncertainty of the mechanistic-empirical pavement design model. The load-induced pavement structural responses (e.g., stresses, strains, and deflections) used to predict the pavement life are estimated using the response surface methodology model developed based on the results of linear elastic analysis. The failure criteria adopted for the analysis were based on the factor of safety (FOS), and the study was carried out for different sample sizes and jumping distributions to estimate the most robust posterior statistics. From the posterior statistics of the case considered, it was observed that after approximately 150 million standard axle load repetitions, the mean values of the pavement properties decrease as expected, with a significant decrease in the values of the elastic moduli of the expected layers. An analysis of the posterior statistics indicated that the parameters that contribute significantly to the pavement failure were the moduli of the base and surface layer, which is consistent with the findings from other studies. After the back analysis, the base modulus parameters show a significant decrease of 15.8% and the surface layer modulus a decrease of 3.12% in the mean value. The usefulness of the back analysis methodology is further highlighted by estimating the design parameters for specified values of the factor of safety. The analysis revealed that for the pavement section considered, a reliability of 89% and 94% can be achieved by adopting FOS values of 1.5 and 2, respectively. The methodology proposed can therefore be effectively used to identify the parameters that are critical to pavement failure in the design of pavements for specified levels of reliability. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)TE.1943-5436.0000455. (C) 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Identificação de danos estruturais a partir do modelo de superfície de resposta

A identificação de danos estruturais é uma questão de fundamental importância na engenharia, visto que uma estrutura está sujeita a processos de deterioração e a ocorrência de danos durante a sua vida útil. A presença de danos compromete o desempenho e a integridade estrutural, podendo colocar vidas humanas em risco e resultam em perdas econômicas consideráveis. Técnicas de identificação de danos estruturais e monitoramento de estruturas fundamentadas no ajuste de um Modelo de Elementos Finitos (MEF) são constantes na literatura especializada. No entanto, a obtenção de um problema geralmente mal posto e o elevado custo computacional, inerente a essas técnicas, limitam ou até mesmo inviabilizam a sua aplicabilidade em estruturas que demandam um modelo de ordem elevada. Para contornar essas dificuldades, na formulação do problema de identificação de danos, pode-se utilizar o Modelo de Superfície de Reposta (MSR) em substituição a um MEF da estrutura. No presente trabalho, a identificação de danos estruturais considera o ajuste de um MSR da estrutura, objetivando-se a minimização de uma função de erro definida a partir das frequências naturais experimentais e das correspondentes frequências previstas pelo MSR. Estuda-se o problema de identificação de danos estruturais em uma viga de Euler-Bernoulli simplesmente apoiada, considerando as frequências naturais na formulação do problema inverso. O comportamento de uma viga de Euler-Bernoulli simplesmente apoiada na presença de danos é analisado, com intuito de se verificar as regiões onde a identificação dos mesmos pode apresentar maior dificuldade. No processo de identificação de danos, do presente trabalho, são avaliados os tipos de superfícies de resposta, após uma escolha apropriada do tipo de superfície de resposta a ser utilizado, determina-se a superfície de resposta considerando os dados experimentais selecionados a partir do projeto ótimo de experimentos. A utilização do método Evolução Diferencial (ED) no problema inverso de identificação de danos é considerado inerente aos resultados numéricos obtidos, a estratégia adotada mostrou-se capaz de localizar e quantificar os danos com elevada acurácia, mostrando a potencialidade do modelo de identificação de danos proposto.

Biology and distribution of grouper (Epinephelus coioides) in province waters (Abadan Bhrakan)

This survay has been done from Januray 2000 till May 2002 in Khouzestan costal waters. Four species of grouper were identified from which orange spotted grouper (Epinephelus coioides) was the dominant species. For studing environmental parameters and reproductive biology, age, growth parameters and mortality rate samples were collected by fishing ship. Samples were taken montly in 4 days by fishing traps and trawls. In addition, some samples were obtained from Khozestan fish landing centres. Environmental factors such as PH, 02, salinity, water temperature and depth of traping areas, were measured. To identify species, morphometric characteries of 452 individal fishes were measured. Stomach contents of 394 fish were has survaid, from which stomach of 226 fish, and 168 fish had empty stomachs. Percentage of empty stomachs (cv) in males was more than females. Food items found in 73 percent of stomach were crab (11%), shrimps (8.8%) , squids (3.9%), gastropods (17%) and bivalves (0.4%). Feeding intensity in year classes did not obay logic trends The importance relatively indicator (I.R.I) were 81, 9.9, 4, 1.5 and 0.3 percent for fish, crab, shrimp, squid, gastropod and bivalve respectively. For age determination, sagita otoliths of 450 fish were taken and countable sections were obtained from 425 specimens. Relative frequency distribution of opaque and transparent rings showed that each opaque growth ring generates once a year from November to September. It seemed that generation of opaque rings is affected by temperature and photoperiod changes. Correlation between length and age was calculated using Von Bertalanffy's least square method. Following equasion was obtaind: L(t) : 122.27 (1 e 0.146 (t+0.482)) Growth parameters were determined through by Ford Walford equasion and Response Surface and Shepherd subcommands in Elefan program and L00 and K amounts were have determined. Correlation between length and age of 635 fish was determined by gender . Length and age correlation was calculated by exponential model and between total length and standard length by straghit line model. Correlation between age and weight of sagita was calculated by total length and age. The most Correlation was between sagita weight and fish age (r=0.876). Total mortality rate (z) was estimated by Length Converthed Method , Jones and Vanzaling and Powel Wetherall. Total mortality rate was z=0.39. Natural mortality rate, using Pauly method was calculated M=0.32. Fishing mortality (F) was 0.08. Gonads of 425 fishes were surveid within 18 month, from which 363 were female, 46 were male and 16 were sex reversing individuals .Total length of females varied from 26 to 95.5 centimeters while males length varied from 56.5 to 107 centimeters. Sex reversing individuals had a length of 47.5 centimeters, when two years old and 62.5 centimeters at age of 3 years. From the mentioned 425 fish, 401 individuals were matured, containing 339 females and 62 males, 5.47 females against each male. Montly changes of Gonadosomatic Index (GSI) by total body weight and standard length and total body length showed that this index increases from march to May and maximum increase was in May . This experiment was adapted in spawning season. Potential, relative, and absoulate fecundity was estimated by counting eggs in three samples. Total amount of traped fish using special traps was 16182.18 kg from which Epinephelus coioides provided catching 15353.43 kg of it (91.27 %) and By catch was 141.18 kg (8.24 %). Total average CPUE for whole catch was 123.33 kg/day/vessel. Total amount of catch was estimated 232.04 tons, considering CPUE of total catch and total Khuzestan trap ships effort.

Extraction of intrinsic response from S-parameters of laser diodes

We describe a new method for extracting the intrinsic response of a laser diode from S-parameters measured using a calibrated vector network analyzer. The experimental results obtained using the new method are compared with those obtained using the optical modulation method and the frequency response subtraction method. Good agreement has been obtained, confirming the new method validity and accuracy. The new method has the advantages of obtaining the intrinsic characteristics of a laser diode with conventional measurements using a network analyzer.

Production and characterization of biodiesel from tung oil

The feasibility of biodiesel production from tung oil was investigated. The esterification reaction of the free fatty acids of tung oil was performed using Amberlyst-15. Optimal molar ratio of methanol to oil was determined to be 7.5:1, and Amberlyst-15 was 20.8wt% of oil by response surface methodology. Under these reaction conditions, the acid value of tung oil was reduced to 0.72mg KOH/g. In the range of the molar equivalents of methanol to oil under 5, the esterification was strongly affected by the amount of methanol but not the catalyst. When the molar ratio of methanol to oil was 4.1:1 and Amberlyst-15 was 29.8wt% of the oil, the acid value decreased to 0.85mg KOH/g. After the transesterification reaction of pretreated tung oil, the purity of tung biodiesel was 90.2wt%. The high viscosity of crude tung oil decreased to 9.8mm(2)/s at 40 degrees C. Because of the presence of eleostearic acid, which is a main component of tung oil, the oxidation stability as determined by the Rancimat method was very low, 0.5h, but the cold filter plugging point, -11 degrees C, was good. The distillation process did not improve the fatty acid methyl ester content and the viscosity.

Substrate induction and statistical optimization for the production of chitosanase from Microbacterium sp OU01

The chitosanase production was markedly enhanced by substrate induction, statistical optimization of medium composition and culture conditions by Microbacteritan sp. OU01 in shake-flask. A significant influence of (NH4)(2)SO4, MgSO4 center dot 7H(2)O and initial pH on chitosanase production was noted with Plackett-Burman design. It was then revealed with the method of steepest ascent and response surface methodology (RSM) that 19.0 g/L (NH4)(2)SO4, 1.3 g/L MgSO4 and an initial pH of 2.0 were optimum for the production of chitosanase; colloidal chitosan appeared to be the best inducer for chitosanase production by Microbacterium sp. OU01. This optimization strategy led to the enhancement of chitosanase from 3.6 U/mL to 118 U/mL. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.