898 resultados para Residual-Based Panel Cointegration Test
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Diese Dissertation basiert auf einem theoretischen Artikel und zwei empirischen Studien.rnrnDer theoretische Artikel: Es wird ein theoretisches Rahmenmodell postuliert, welches die Kumulierung von Arbeitsunterbrechung und deren Effekte untersucht. Die meisten bisherigen Studien haben Unterbrechungen als isoliertes Phänomen betrachtet und dabei unberücksichtigt gelassen, dass während eines typischen Arbeitstages mehrere Unterbrechungen gleichzeitig (oder aufeinanderfolgend) auftreten. In der vorliegenden Dissertation wird diese Lücke gefüllt, indem der Prozess der kumulierenden Unterbrechungen untersucht wird. Es wird beschrieben,rninwieweit die Kumulation von Unterbrechungen zu einer neuen Qualität vonrn(negativen) Effekten führt. Das Zusammenspiel und die gegenseitige Verstärkung einzelner Effekte werden dargestellt und moderierende und mediierende Faktoren aufgezeigt. Auf diese Weise ist es möglich, eine Verbindung zwischen kurzfristigen Effekten einzelner Unterbrechungen und Gesundheitsbeeinträchtigungen durch die Arbeitsbedingung ‚Unterbrechungen‘rnherzustellen.rnrnStudie 1: In dieser Studie wurde untersucht, inwieweit Unterbrechungen Leistung und Wohlbefinden einer Person innerhalb eines Arbeitstages beeinflussen. Es wurde postuliert, dass das Auftreten von Unterbrechungen die Zufriedenheit mit der eigenen Leistung vermindert und das Vergessen von Intentionen und das Irritationserleben verstärkt. Geistige Anforderung und Zeitdruck galten hierbei als Mediatoren. Um dies zu testen, wurden 133 Pflegekräften über 5 Tage hinweg mittels Smartphones befragt. Mehrebenenanalysen konnten die Haupteffekte bestätigen. Die vermuteten Mediationseffekte wurden für Irritation und (teilweise) für Zufriedenheit mit der Leistung bestätigt, nicht jedoch für Vergessen von Intentionen. Unterbrechungen führen demzufolge (u.a.) zu negativen Effekten, da sie kognitiv anspruchsvoll sind und Zeit beanspruchen.rnrnStudie 2: In dieser Studie wurden Zusammenhänge zwischen kognitiven Stressorenrn(Arbeitsunterbrechungen und Multitasking) und Beanspruchungsfolgen (Stimmung und Irritation) innerhalb eines Arbeitstages gemessen. Es wurde angenommen, dass diese Zusammenhänge durch chronologisches Alter und Indikatoren funktionalen Alters (Arbeitsgedächtniskapazität und Aufmerksamkeit) moderiert wird. Ältere mit schlechteren Aufmerksamkeitsund Arbeitsgedächtnisleistungen sollten am stärksten durch die untersuchten Stressoren beeinträchtigt werden. Es wurde eine Tagebuchstudie (siehe Studie 1) und computergestützternkognitive Leistungstests durchgeführt. Mehrebenenanalysen konnten die Haupteffekte für die abhängigen Variablen Stimmung (Valenz und Wachheit) und Irritation bestätigen, nicht jedoch für Erregung (Stimmung). Dreifachinteraktionen wurden nicht in der postulierten Richtung gefunden. Jüngere, nicht Ältere profitierten von einem hohen basalen kognitivenrnLeistungsvermögen. Ältere scheinen Copingstrategien zu besitzen, die mögliche kognitive Verluste ausgleichen. rnrnIm Allgemeinen konnten die (getesteten) Annahmen des theoretischen Rahmenmodellsrnbestätigt werden. Prinzipiell scheint es möglich, Ergebnisse der Laborforschung auf die Feldforschung zu übertragen, jedoch ist es notwendig die Besonderheiten des Feldes zu berücksichtigen. Die postulieren Mediationseffekte (Studie 1) wurden (teilweise) bestätigt. Die Ergebnisse weisen jedoch darauf hin, dass der volle Arbeitstag untersucht werden muss und dass sehr spezifische abhängige Variablen auch spezifischere Mediatoren benötigen. Des Weiteren konnte in Studie 2 bestätigt werden, dass die kognitive Kapazität eine bedeutsamernRessource im Umgang mit Unterbrechungen ist, im Arbeitskontext jedoch auch andere Ressourcen wirken.
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The current study integrates system justification theory with research on mental illness stigma. Stereotypes of both low- and high-status groups in society can be a means of satisfying the system justification motive, or the motive to view societal inequalities as justified (as reviewed in Jost, Banaji, & Nosek, 2004). Corrigan, Watson, and Ottati (2003) proposed that system justification theory may be able to explain the origins of particular stereotypes of people with mental illness, such as dangerousness and incompetence. The primary goal of the present study was to investigate whether the stigmatization of people with mental illness – a specific form of stigmatization of a lowstatus group – can be at least partially attributed to a broader motive to justify societal inequalities. To test this, the current study included both an experimental manipulation of the perceived legitimacy of the social system and a measure of system-justifying beliefs. Stigmatization of individuals with mental illness was measured with both explicit selfreport measures (semantic differentials and the Attribution Questionnaire) and an implicit measure (a computer-based Implicit Association Test). The relationships between participant characteristics, such as personal experience with mental illness, and stigma were also investigated. Consistent with past research demonstrating only modest correlations between explicit and implicit stigma, greater self-reported fear toward a person with a chronic mental illness was weakly associated with increased implicit bias against mental illness in favor of physical disability. There was little support for the involvement of system justification in explicit stigma. Participants with personal experience with mental illness were less likely to self-report fear and avoidance of a person with a chronic mental illness. These findings have implications for stigmareduction efforts.
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The reliable quantification of gene copy number variations is a precondition for future investigations regarding their functional relevance. To date, there is no generally accepted gold standard method for copy number quantification, and methods in current use have given inconsistent results in selected cohorts. In this study, we compare two methods for copy number quantification. beta-defensin gene copy numbers were determined in parallel in 80 genomic DNA samples by real-time PCR and multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification (MLPA). The pyrosequencing-based paralog ratio test (PPRT) was used as a standard of comparison in 79 out of 80 samples. Realtime PCR and MPLA results confirmed concordant DEFB4, DEFB103A, and DEFB104A copy numbers within samples. These two methods showed identical results in 32 out of 80 samples; 29 of these 32 samples comprised four or fewer copies. The coefficient of variation of MLPA is lower compared with PCR. In addition, the consistency between MLPA and PPRT is higher than either PCR/MLPA or PCR/PPRT consistency. In summary, these results suggest that MLPA is superior to real-time PCR in beta-defensin copy number quantification.
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The article describes the results of fatigue tests with sideflexing polymer chains conducted on a dynamic testing machine and in testing conveyors. A new approach is suggested, that allows a calculatory estimation of the fatigue life of these chains. Finally, a calculation-software is presented, that has been developed based on the test results and the new equations.
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Objective: Impaired cognition is an important dimension in psychosis and its at-risk states. Research on the value of impaired cognition for psychosis prediction in at-risk samples, however, mainly relies on study-specific sample means of neurocognitive tests, which unlike widely available general test norms are difficult to translate into clinical practice. The aim of this study was to explore the combined predictive value of at-risk criteria and neurocognitive deficits according to test norms with a risk stratification approach. Method: Potential predictors of psychosis (neurocognitive deficits and at-risk criteria) over 24 months were investigated in 97 at-risk patients. Results: The final prediction model included (1) at-risk criteria (attenuated psychotic symptoms plus subjective cognitive disturbances) and (2) a processing speed deficit (digit symbol test). The model was stratified into 4 risk classes with hazard rates between 0.0 (both predictors absent) and 1.29 (both predictors present). Conclusions: The combination of a processing speed deficit and at-risk criteria provides an optimized stratified risk assessment. Based on neurocognitive test norms, the validity of our proposed 3 risk classes could easily be examined in independent at-risk samples and, pending positive validation results, our approach could easily be applied in clinical practice in the future.
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Despite current enthusiasm for investigation of gene-gene interactions and gene-environment interactions, the essential issue of how to define and detect gene-environment interactions remains unresolved. In this report, we define gene-environment interactions as a stochastic dependence in the context of the effects of the genetic and environmental risk factors on the cause of phenotypic variation among individuals. We use mutual information that is widely used in communication and complex system analysis to measure gene-environment interactions. We investigate how gene-environment interactions generate the large difference in the information measure of gene-environment interactions between the general population and a diseased population, which motives us to develop mutual information-based statistics for testing gene-environment interactions. We validated the null distribution and calculated the type 1 error rates for the mutual information-based statistics to test gene-environment interactions using extensive simulation studies. We found that the new test statistics were more powerful than the traditional logistic regression under several disease models. Finally, in order to further evaluate the performance of our new method, we applied the mutual information-based statistics to three real examples. Our results showed that P-values for the mutual information-based statistics were much smaller than that obtained by other approaches including logistic regression models.
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Aviation security strongly depends on screeners' performance in the detection of threat objects in x-ray images of passenger bags. We examined for the first time the effects of stress and stress-induced cortisol increases on detection performance of hidden weapons in an x-ray baggage screening task. We randomly assigned 48 participants either to a stress or a nonstress group. The stress group was exposed to a standardized psychosocial stress test (TSST). Before and after stress/nonstress, participants had to detect threat objects in a computer-based object recognition test (X-ray ORT). We repeatedly measured salivary cortisol and X-ray ORT performance before and after stress/nonstress. Cortisol increases in reaction to psychosocial stress induction but not to nonstress independently impaired x-ray detection performance. Our results suggest that stress-induced cortisol increases at peak reactivity impair x-ray screening performance.
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BACKGROUND Potentially avoidable risk factors continue to cause unnecessary disability and premature death in older people. Health risk assessment (HRA), a method successfully used in working-age populations, is a promising method for cost-effective health promotion and preventive care in older individuals, but the long-term effects of this approach are unknown. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of an innovative approach to HRA and counselling in older individuals for health behaviours, preventive care, and long-term survival. METHODS AND FINDINGS This study was a pragmatic, single-centre randomised controlled clinical trial in community-dwelling individuals aged 65 y or older registered with one of 19 primary care physician (PCP) practices in a mixed rural and urban area in Switzerland. From November 2000 to January 2002, 874 participants were randomly allocated to the intervention and 1,410 to usual care. The intervention consisted of HRA based on self-administered questionnaires and individualised computer-generated feedback reports, combined with nurse and PCP counselling over a 2-y period. Primary outcomes were health behaviours and preventive care use at 2 y and all-cause mortality at 8 y. At baseline, participants in the intervention group had a mean ± standard deviation of 6.9 ± 3.7 risk factors (including unfavourable health behaviours, health and functional impairments, and social risk factors) and 4.3 ± 1.8 deficits in recommended preventive care. At 2 y, favourable health behaviours and use of preventive care were more frequent in the intervention than in the control group (based on z-statistics from generalised estimating equation models). For example, 70% compared to 62% were physically active (odds ratio 1.43, 95% CI 1.16-1.77, p = 0.001), and 66% compared to 59% had influenza vaccinations in the past year (odds ratio 1.35, 95% CI 1.09-1.66, p = 0.005). At 8 y, based on an intention-to-treat analysis, the estimated proportion alive was 77.9% in the intervention and 72.8% in the control group, for an absolute mortality difference of 4.9% (95% CI 1.3%-8.5%, p = 0.009; based on z-test for risk difference). The hazard ratio of death comparing intervention with control was 0.79 (95% CI 0.66-0.94, p = 0.009; based on Wald test from Cox regression model), and the number needed to receive the intervention to prevent one death was 21 (95% CI 12-79). The main limitations of the study include the single-site study design, the use of a brief self-administered questionnaire for 2-y outcome data collection, the unavailability of other long-term outcome data (e.g., functional status, nursing home admissions), and the availability of long-term follow-up data on mortality for analysis only in 2014. CONCLUSIONS This is the first trial to our knowledge demonstrating that a collaborative care model of HRA in community-dwelling older people not only results in better health behaviours and increased use of recommended preventive care interventions, but also improves survival. The intervention tested in our study may serve as a model of how to implement a relatively low-cost but effective programme of disease prevention and health promotion in older individuals. TRIAL REGISTRATION International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number: ISRCTN 28458424.
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This paper presents a parallel surrogate-based global optimization method for computationally expensive objective functions that is more effective for larger numbers of processors. To reach this goal, we integrated concepts from multi-objective optimization and tabu search into, single objective, surrogate optimization. Our proposed derivative-free algorithm, called SOP, uses non-dominated sorting of points for which the expensive function has been previously evaluated. The two objectives are the expensive function value of the point and the minimum distance of the point to previously evaluated points. Based on the results of non-dominated sorting, P points from the sorted fronts are selected as centers from which many candidate points are generated by random perturbations. Based on surrogate approximation, the best candidate point is subsequently selected for expensive evaluation for each of the P centers, with simultaneous computation on P processors. Centers that previously did not generate good solutions are tabu with a given tenure. We show almost sure convergence of this algorithm under some conditions. The performance of SOP is compared with two RBF based methods. The test results show that SOP is an efficient method that can reduce time required to find a good near optimal solution. In a number of cases the efficiency of SOP is so good that SOP with 8 processors found an accurate answer in less wall-clock time than the other algorithms did with 32 processors.
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This paper examines whether or not the export insurance subsidy provided by the British government has promoted Britain.s export supply. Unlike previous studies on the effectiveness of export subsidy in export supply, the current study examines the stationarity nature of the concerned variables. The unit root tests show that all concerned variables are integrated of order one. According to Johansen cointegration test, the concerned variables are not cointegrated. The empirical evidences using the first differenced data show that the export subsidy in terms of provision of export insurances by the government is not statistically significant in increasing export supply.
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ACCURACY OF THE BRCAPRO RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL IN MALES PRESENTING TO MD ANDERSON FOR BRCA TESTING Publication No. _______ Carolyn A. Garby, B.S. Supervisory Professor: Banu Arun, M.D. Hereditary Breast and Ovarian Cancer (HBOC) syndrome is due to mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2 genes. Women with HBOC have high risks to develop breast and ovarian cancers. Males with HBOC are commonly overlooked because male breast cancer is rare and other male cancer risks such as prostate and pancreatic cancers are relatively low. BRCA genetic testing is indicated for men as it is currently estimated that 4-40% of male breast cancers result from a BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation (Ottini, 2010) and management recommendations can be made based on genetic test results. Risk assessment models are available to provide the individualized likelihood to have a BRCA mutation. Only one study has been conducted to date to evaluate the accuracy of BRCAPro in males and was based on a cohort of Italian males and utilized an older version of BRCAPro. The objective of this study is to determine if BRCAPro5.1 is a valid risk assessment model for males who present to MD Anderson Cancer Center for BRCA genetic testing. BRCAPro has been previously validated for determining the probability of carrying a BRCA mutation, however has not been further examined particularly in males. The total cohort consisted of 152 males who had undergone BRCA genetic testing. The cohort was stratified by indication for genetic counseling. Indications included having a known familial BRCA mutation, having a personal diagnosis of a BRCA-related cancer, or having a family history suggestive of HBOC. Overall there were 22 (14.47%) BRCA1+ males and 25 (16.45%) BRCA2+ males. Receiver operating characteristic curves were constructed for the cohort overall, for each particular indication, as well as for each cancer subtype. Our findings revealed that the BRCAPro5.1 model had perfect discriminating ability at a threshold of 56.2 for males with breast cancer, however only 2 (4.35%) of 46 were found to have BRCA2 mutations. These results are significantly lower than the high approximation (40%) reported in previous literature. BRCAPro does perform well in certain situations for men. Future investigation of male breast cancer and men at risk for BRCA mutations is necessary to provide a more accurate risk assessment.
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Observations of carbonate preservation in marine sediments have long been used to infer changes in ocean circulation or biogenic production. When combined with measures of organic carbon rain and calcite accumulation rates, quantitative estimates of changes in preservation can reveal variation in biogenic fluxes, the org. C to calcite flux ratio and saturation state of bottom waters. Here we develop quantitative dissolution proxies for mid to higher latitudes based on foraminiferal test fragmentation. Examining surface sediments, we find that fragmentation in G. bulloides and G. truncatulinoides is linear with increasing seabed dissolution rate and can be used to quantify changes in carbonate preservation. G. truncatulinoides shows a constant relationship of fragmentation to dissolution. However, we observe that, although linear to dissolution rate, the fragmentation in G. bulloides depends on which morphotype is present. Other species, such as G. inflata, have complex responses to increasing dissolution and are less direct preservation indicators.
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Predicted future CO2 levels can affect reproduction, growth, and behaviour of many marine organisms. However, the capacity of species to adapt to predicted changes in ocean chemistry is largely unknown. We used a unique field-based experiment to test for differential survival associated with variation in CO2 tolerance in a wild population of coral-reef fishes. Juvenile damselfish exhibited variation in their response to elevated (700 µatm) CO2 when tested in the laboratory and this influenced their behaviour and risk of mortality in the wild. Individuals that were sensitive to elevated CO2 were more active and move further from shelter in natural coral reef habitat and, as a result, mortality from predation was significantly higher compared with individuals from the same treatment that were tolerant of elevated CO2. If individual variation in CO2 tolerance is heritable, this selection of phenotypes tolerant to elevated CO2 could potentially help mitigate the effects of ocean acidification.
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This paper empirically analyzes India’s money demand function during the period of 1980 to 2007 using monthly data and the period of 1976 to 2007 using annual data. Cointegration test results indicated that when money supply is represented by M1 and M2, a cointegrating vector is detected among real money balances, interest rates, and output. In contrast, it was found that when money supply is represented by M3, there is no long-run equilibrium relationship in the money demand function. Moreover, when the money demand function was estimated using dynamic OLS, the sign onditions of the coefficients of output and interest rates were found to be consistent with theoretical rationale, and statistical significance was confirmed when money supply was represented by either M1 or M2. Consequently, though India’s central bank presently uses M3 as an indicator of future price movements, it is thought appropriate to focus on M1 or M2, rather than M3, in managing monetary policy.
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An experimental and numerical study of ballistic impacts on steel plates at various temperatures (700ºC, 400ºC and room temperature) has been carried out. The motivation for this work is the blade‐off event that may occur inside a jet engine turbine. However, as a first attempt to understand this complex loading process, a somewhat simpler approach is carried out in the present work. The material used in this study is the FV535 martensitic stainless steel, which is one of the most commonly used materials for turbine casings. Based on material test data, a Modified Johnson‐Cook (MJC) model was calibrated for numerical simulations using the LS‐DYNA explicit finite element code (see Figure 1). To check the mesh size sensitivity, 2D axisymmetric finite element models with three different mesh sizes and configurations were used for the various temperatures. Two fixed meshes with 64 and 128 elements over the 2mm thick plate and one mesh with 32 elements over the thickness with adaptive remeshing were used in the simulations. The formation of adiabatic shear bands in the perforation process has been found critical in order to achieve good results. Adiabatic shear bands are formed by the temperature rise due to the accumulation of plastic strain during impact (see Figure 2). The influence of the thermal softening in the plastic model has hence been analyzed for the room temperature impact tests, where the temperature gradient is highest