Time-Series Panel Analysis (TSPA): Multivariate Modeling of Temporal Associations in Psychotherapy Process.

Objective: Processes occurring in the course of psychotherapy are characterized by the simple fact that they unfold in time and that the multiple factors engaged in change processes vary highly between individuals (idiographic phenomena). Previous research, however, has neglected the temporal perspective by its traditional focus on static phenomena, which were mainly assessed at the group level (nomothetic phenomena). To support a temporal approach, the authors introduce time-series panel analysis (TSPA), a statistical methodology explicitly focusing on the quantification of temporal, session-to-session aspects of change in psychotherapy. TSPA-models are initially built at the level of individuals and are subsequently aggregated at the group level, thus allowing the exploration of prototypical models. Method: TSPA is based on vector auto-regression (VAR), an extension of univariate auto-regression models to multivariate time-series data. The application of TSPA is demonstrated in a sample of 87 outpatient psychotherapy patients who were monitored by postsession questionnaires. Prototypical mechanisms of change were derived from the aggregation of individual multivariate models of psychotherapy process. In a 2nd step, the associations between mechanisms of change (TSPA) and pre- to postsymptom change were explored. Results: TSPA allowed a prototypical process pattern to be identified, where patient's alliance and self-efficacy were linked by a temporal feedback-loop. Furthermore, therapist's stability over time in both mastery and clarification interventions was positively associated with better outcomes. Conclusions: TSPA is a statistical tool that sheds new light on temporal mechanisms of change. Through this approach, clinicians may gain insight into prototypical patterns of change in psychotherapy.

Institutions as key drivers of collective action in WUAs [Water User Associations] of Uzbekistan

This paper presents a multifactor approach for performance assessment of Water Users Associations (WUAs) in Uzbekistan in order to identify the drivers for improved and effi cient performance of WUAs. The study was carried out in the Fergana Valley where the WUAs were created along the South Fergana Main Canal during the last 10 years. The farmers and the employees of 20 WUAs were questioned about the WUAs’ activities and the quantitative and qualitative data were obtained. This became a base for the calculation of 36 indicators divided into 6 groups: Water supply, technical conditions, economic conditions, social and cultural conditions, organizational conditions and information conditions. All the indicators assessed with a differentiated point system adjusted for subjectivity of several of them give the total maximal result for the associations of 250 point. The WUAs of the Fergana Valley showed the score between 145 and 219 points, what refl ects a highly diverse level of the WUAs performance in the region. The analysis of the indicators revealed that the key points of the WUA’s success are the organizational and institutional conditions including the participatory factors and awareness of both the farmers and employees about the work of WUA. The research showed that the low performance of the WUAs is always explained by the low technical and economic conditions along with weak organization and information dissemination conditions. It is clear that it is complicated to improve technical and economic conditions immediately because they are cost-based and cost-induced. However, it is possible to improve the organizational conditions and to strengthen the institutional basis via formal and information institutions which will gradually lead to improvement of economic and technical conditions of WUAs. Farmers should be involved into the WUA Governance and into the process of making common decisions and solving common problems together via proper institutions. Their awareness can also be improved by leading additional trainings for increasing farmers’ agronomic and irrigation knowledge, teaching them water saving technologies and acquainting them with the use of water measuring equipment so it can bring reliable water supply, transparent budgeting and adequate as well as equitable water allocation to the water users.

Associations between the decrease in bovine clinical mastitis and changes in dairy farmers' attitude, knowledge, and behavior in the Netherlands.

The aim of this study was to associate changes in dairy farmers' self-reported attitude, knowledge, and behavior with the decrease in incidence rate of clinical mastitis (IRCM). Farmer-diagnosed clinical mastitis cases were obtained from two surveys conducted before (July 2004-June 2005) and at the end (2009) of a mastitis control program in the Netherlands. Information on farmers' attitude, knowledge, and behavior was also obtained by sending the farmers the same questionnaire during both surveys. Multivariable linear regression models identified that the herd level 2004 IRCM explained 28% of the variation in the decrease of IRCM. Changes in farmers' attitude and knowledge, and changes in farmers' behavior additionally explained 24% and 5%, respectively. These results suggest that the way management measures are executed may be at least as important as the fact that they are executed. No control group was available for this study because the intervention was applied at the national level. We therefore do not claim any causal relationships.

Conservation of the Cinereous Vulture Aegypius monachus in Spain (1966–2011): a bibliometric review of threats, research and adaptive management

Detecting and quantifying threats and researching and implementing management actions are key to improving the conservation status of endangered species. Bibliometric analysis can constitute a useful tool for the evaluation of such questions from a long-term perspective. Taking as a case study the Cinereous Vulture Aegypius monachus in Spain, we tested relationships between population dynamics, research efforts, existing threats and conservation milestones. The population growth of the species (from 206 pairs in 1976 to 2,068 in 2011) was parallelled by the increase in the total number of publications, the number of articles in SCI journals and the number of published works dealing with aspects of conservation, threats and management. These results are discussed in terms of cause-effect relationships taking into account that the influence of other non-mutually exclusive factors could also probably explain such associations. Similarly, we analysed the trend of the Cinereous Vulture breeding population with respect to different threats and indices of food availability, obtaining a positive correlation with the increase in big-game hunting bags in Spain. With respect to conservation milestones, we concluded that the current situation is positive in terms of the protection of the species and its habitat, with the situation in relation to food availability being unclear. Finally, we reviewed the main conservation actions that have been taken for the species in Spain and how these have been progressively modified based on new scientific and technical evidence, as an example of adaptive management applied to conservation.

Associations between mood, anxiety or substance use disorders and inflammatory markers after adjustment for multiple covariates in a population-based study.

Inflammation is one possible mechanism underlying the associations between mental disorders and cardiovascular diseases (CVD). However, studies on mental disorders and inflammation have yielded inconsistent results and the majority did not adjust for potential confounding factors. We examined the associations of several pro-inflammatory cytokines (IL-1β, IL-6 and TNF-α) and high sensitive C-reactive protein (hsCRP) with lifetime and current mood, anxiety and substance use disorders (SUD), while adjusting for multiple covariates. The sample included 3719 subjects, randomly selected from the general population, who underwent thorough somatic and psychiatric evaluations. Psychiatric diagnoses were made with a semi-structured interview. Major depressive disorder was subtyped into "atypical", "melancholic", "combined atypical-melancholic" and "unspecified". Associations between inflammatory markers and psychiatric diagnoses were assessed using multiple linear and logistic regression models. Lifetime bipolar disorders and atypical depression were associated with increased levels of hsCRP, but not after multivariate adjustment. After multivariate adjustment, SUD remained associated with increased hsCRP levels in men (β = 0.13 (95% CI: 0.03,0.23)) but not in women. After multivariate adjustment, lifetime combined and unspecified depression were associated with decreased levels of IL-6 (β = -0.27 (-0.51,-0.02); β = -0.19 (-0.34,-0.05), respectively) and TNF-α (β = -0.16 (-0.30,-0.01); β = -0.10 (-0.19,-0.02), respectively), whereas current combined and unspecified depression were associated with decreased levels of hsCRP (β = -0.20 (-0.39,-0.02); β = -0.12 (-0.24,-0.01), respectively). Our data suggest that the significant associations between increased hsCRP levels and mood disorders are mainly attributable to the effects of comorbid disorders, medication as well as behavioral and physical CVRFs.

Collaborative Research in Childhood Cancer Survivorship: The Current Landscape.

Survivors of childhood cancer carry a substantial burden of morbidity and are at increased risk for premature death. Furthermore, clear associations exist between specific therapeutic exposures and the risk for a variety of long-term complications. The entire landscape of health issues encountered for decades after successful completion of treatment is currently being explored in various collaborative research settings. These settings include large population-based or multi-institutional cohorts and single-institution studies. The ascertainment of outcomes has depended on self-reporting, linkage to registries, or clinical assessments. Survivorship research in the cooperative group setting, such as the Children's Oncology Group, has leveraged the clinical trials infrastructure to explore the molecular underpinnings of treatment-related adverse events, and to understand specific complications in the setting of randomized risk-reduction strategies. This review highlights the salient findings from these large collaborative initiatives, emphasizing the need for life-long follow-up of survivors of childhood cancer, and describing the development of several guidelines and efforts toward harmonization. Finally, the review reinforces the need to identify populations at highest risk, facilitating the development of risk prediction models that would allow for targeted interventions across the entire trajectory of survivorship.

Associations Between Cardiovascular Risk Factors, Inflammation, and Progression of Carotid Atherosclerosis Among Smokers

INTRODUCTION The high risk of cardiovascular events in smokers requires adequate control of other cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs) to curtail atherosclerosis progression. However, it is unclear which CVRFs have the most influence on atherosclerosis progression in smokers. METHODS In 260 smokers aged 40-70 included in a smoking cessation trial, we analyzed the association between traditional CVRFs, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), smoking cessation and 3-year progression of carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT, assessed by repeated ultrasound measurements) in a longitudinal multivariate model. RESULTS Participants (mean age 52 years, 47% women) had a mean smoking duration of 32 years with a median daily consumption of 20 cigarettes. Baseline CIMT was 1185 μm (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1082-1287) and increased by 93 μm (95% CI: 25-161) and 108 μm (95% CI: 33-183) after 1 and 3 years, respectively. Age, male sex, daily cigarette consumption, systolic blood pressure (SBP), but neither low-density lipoprotein cholesterol nor hs-CRP, were independently associated with baseline CIMT (all P ≤ .05). Baseline SBP, but neither low-density lipoprotein cholesterol nor hs-CRP, was associated with 3-year atherosclerosis progression (P = .01 at 3 years). The higher the SBP at baseline, the steeper was the CIMT increase over 3-year follow-up. We found an increase of 26 μm per each 10-mmHg raise in SBP at 1 year and an increase of 39 μm per each 10 mmHg raise in SBP at 3 years. Due to insufficient statistical power, we could not exclude an effect of smoking abstinence on CIMT progression. CONCLUSION Control of blood pressure may be an important factor to limit atherosclerosis progression in smokers, besides support for smoking cessation. IMPLICATIONS Among 260 smokers aged 40-70 years with a mean smoking duration of 32 years, baseline SBP was associated with atherosclerosis progression over 3 years, as measured by CIMT (P = .01 at 3 years), independently of smoking variables and other CVRFs. The higher the SBP at baseline, the steeper was the CIMT increase over 3-year follow-up. Our findings emphasize the importance of focusing not only on smoking cessation among smokers, but to simultaneously control other CVRFs, particularly blood pressure, in order to prevent future cardiovascular disease.

Statistical testing against baseline was common in dental research

OBJECTIVES To assess the presence of within-group comparisons with baseline in a subset of leading dental journals and to explore possible associations with a range of study characteristics including journal and study design. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING Thirty consecutive issues of five leading dental journals were electronically searched. The conduct and reporting of statistical analysis in respect of comparisons against baseline or otherwise along with the manner of interpretation of the results were assessed. Descriptive statistics were obtained, and chi-square test and Fisher's exact were undertaken to test the association between trial characteristics and overall study interpretation. RESULTS A total of 184 studies were included with the highest proportion published in Journal of Endodontics (n = 84, 46%) and most involving a single center (n = 157, 85%). Overall, 43 studies (23%) presented interpretation of their outcomes based solely on comparisons against baseline. Inappropriate use of baseline testing was found to be less likely in interventional studies (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION Use of comparisons with baseline appears to be common among both observational and interventional research studies in dentistry. Enhanced conduct and reporting of statistical tests are required to ensure that inferences from research studies are appropriate and informative.

Adherence to a lifestyle physical activity program: Trends over time and associations with processes of change and physical activity

Research on lifestyle physical activity interventions suggests that they help individuals meet the new recommendations for physical activity made by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the American College of Sports Medicine (ACSM). The purpose of this research was to describe the rates of adherence to two lifestyle physical activity intervention arms and to examine the association between adherence and outcome variables, using data from Project PRIME, a lifestyle physical activity intervention based on the transtheoretical model and conducted by the Cooper Institute of Aerobics Research, Dallas, Texas. Participants were 250 sedentary healthy adults, aged 35 to 70 years, primarily non-Hispanic White, and in the contemplation and preparation stages of readiness to change. They were randomized to a group (PRIME G) or a mail- and telephone-delivered condition (PRIME C). Adherence measures included attending class (PRIME G), completing a monthly telephone call with a health educator (PRIME C), and completing homework assignments and self-monitoring minutes of moderate- to vigorous physical activity (both groups). In the first results paper, adherence over time and between conditions was examined: Attendance in group, completing the monthly telephone call, and homework completion decreased over time, and participants in PRIME G were more likely to complete homework than those in PRIME C. Paper 2 aimed to determine whether the adherence measures predicted achievement of the CDC/ACSM physical activity guideline. In separate models for the two conditions, a latent variable measuring adherence was found to predict achievement of the guideline. Paper 3 examined the association between adherence measures and the transtheoretical model's processes of change within each condition. For both, participants who completed at least two thirds of the homework assignments improved their use of the processes of change more than those who completed less than that amount. These results suggest that encouraging adherence to a lifestyle physical activity intervention, at least among already motivated volunteers, may increase the likelihood of beneficial changes in the outcomes. ^

Community Trails in Community Context: GIS Analysis of Associations between Trail and Neighborhood Characteristics

This research examines the site and situation characteristics of community trails as landscapes promoting physical activity. Trail segment and neighborhood characteristics for six trails in urban, suburban, and exurban towns in northeastern Massachusetts were assessed from primary Global Positioning System (GPS) data and from secondary Census and land use data integrated in a geographic information system (GIS). Correlations between neighborhood street and housing density, land use mix, and sociodemographic characteristics and trail segment characteristics and amenities measure the degree to which trail segment attributes are associated with the surrounding neighborhood characteristics.

Family Court Judges' Training, Background, and Child Development Knowledge: Associations with Child Custody Decision Making

Family court judges are often asked to make inferences about - or directly interview children to ascertain - children's custody preferences and their maturity to express such preferences. These estimates of children's developmental maturity are important to the judges' considerations of children's "best interests" in custody cases. The research literature describing family court judges' background, education, training, and knowledge about child development is scant. With appropriate child development knowledge, judges should be better able to identify the developmental stages at which children have the cognitive and social capabilities to communicate directly their placement wishes or concerns. The current study is the first to examine judges' estimates of - and actual tests of - their child development knowledge, their training/education, and their application of this knowledge to their decisions to involve children as participants in contested custody cases.

Determining appropriate measurement methods for etiological research of computing-related musculoskeletal symptoms and disorders

Two studies among college students were conducted to evaluate appropriate measurement methods for etiological research on computing-related upper extremity musculoskeletal disorders (UEMSDs). ^ A cross-sectional study among 100 graduate students evaluated the utility of symptoms surveys (a VAS scale and 5-point Likert scale) compared with two UEMSD clinical classification systems (Gerr and Moore protocols). The two symptom measures were highly concordant (Lin's rho = 0.54; Spearman's r = 0.72); the two clinical protocols were moderately concordant (Cohen's kappa = 0.50). Sensitivity and specificity, endorsed by Youden's J statistic, did not reveal much agreement between the symptoms surveys and clinical examinations. It cannot be concluded self-report symptoms surveys can be used as surrogate for clinical examinations. ^ A pilot repeated measures study conducted among 30 undergraduate students evaluated computing exposure measurement methods. Key findings are: temporal variations in symptoms, the odds of experiencing symptoms increased with every hour of computer use (adjOR = 1.1, p < .10) and every stretch break taken (adjOR = 1.3, p < .10). When measuring posture using the Computer Use Checklist, a positive association with symptoms was observed (adjOR = 1.3, p < 0.10), while measuring posture using a modified Rapid Upper Limb Assessment produced unexpected and inconsistent associations. The findings were inconclusive in identifying an appropriate posture assessment or superior conceptualization of computer use exposure. ^ A cross-sectional study of 166 graduate students evaluated the comparability of graduate students to College Computing & Health surveys administered to undergraduate students. Fifty-five percent reported computing-related pain and functional limitations. Years of computer use in graduate school and number of years in school where weekly computer use was ≥ 10 hours were associated with pain within an hour of computing in logistic regression analyses. The findings are consistent with current literature on both undergraduate and graduate students. ^

Cross-cultural equivalence and associations among food insecurity and parental influences of children's fruit and vegetable consumption

Over the past several decades, the prevalence of obesity has dramatically increased. Cause for concern has increased because overweight and obesity are major contributors to morbidity and mortality. Intervention research aimed at reducing the prevalence of obesity has identified the family, specifically the parent, as a key component of the home environment. However, findings from dietary behavior change interventions have been disheartening because few studies have reported meaningful change, suggesting methodological and/or measurement issues within the intervention process. A lack of appropriate mediators and cross-cultural equivalence may partially explain the reason for little change.^ The study aims were to (1) evaluate the psychometric properties and assess the cross cultural equivalence of the Food Insecurity Scale (paper 1) and the modified Parent Feeding Practices Questionnaire (paper 2) and to assess the overall relationships among food insecurity, parent mediators, and parent behaviors towards children's dietary behavior (paper 3) through structural equation modeling and tests of invariance. The study aims were accomplished through conducting secondary analyses using baseline data from English- and Spanish-speaking Hispanic women who participated in the Healthy Families: Step by Step (BHF) study.^ Results indicated that although the FIS and the mPFPQ exhibited sound psychometric properties, the instruments exhibited a lack of invariance across language spoken groups. The lack of invariance was more pronounced in the FIS. Results also supported the theoretical framework identifying parent's perceived barriers and self-efficacy as mediators of parent's behaviors toward improving children's health eating. Results did not suggest that the relationships were moderated by food insecurity.^ In conclusion, the identification of differential item functioning in food insecurity and parent feeding practices may be beneficial in enhancing tailored interventions through the incorporation of cultural differences into the change mechanisms. However, future research needs to be conducted to determine if the lack of invariance demonstrates the existence of item bias or if it is a reflection of true difference among the language spoken groups. Additionally, obesity intervention studies targeting parent/family barriers and parent self-efficacy to provide/encourage healthy diets may result in an increase in parent behaviors which promote healthy eating behaviors among children. Future research should also examine a more complete causal pathway to determine whether parental changes in the mediators ultimately lead to an increase in healthy dietary behavior among children.^