Specialization and rent-seeking in moral enforcement: The case of confession

Moral codes are produced and enforced by more or less specialized means and are subject to standard economic forces. This paper argues that the intermediary role played by the Catholic Church between God and Christians, a key difference from Protestantism, faces the standard trade-off of specialization benefits and agency costs. It applies this trade-off hypothesis to confession of sins to priests, an institution that epitomizes such intermediation, showing that this hypothesis fits cognitive, historical and econometric evidence better than a simpler rent-seeking story. In particular, Catholics who confess more often are observed to comply more with the moral code; however, no relationship is observed between mass attendance and moral compliance. The data also links the current decline in confession to the rise in education, which makes moral self-enforcement less costly, and to the productivity gap suffered by confession services, given its necessarily interpersonal nature.

Betting on Hitler: The value of political connections in Nazi Germany

This paper examines the value of connections between German industry andthe Nazi movement in early 1933. Drawing on previously unused contemporarysources about management and supervisory board composition and stock returns,we find that one out of seven firms, and a large proportion of the biggest companies,had substantive links with the National Socialist German Workers Party. Firmssupporting the Nazi movement experienced unusually high returns, outperformingunconnected ones by 5% to 8% between January and March 1933. These resultsare not driven by sectoral composition and are robust to alternative estimatorsand definitions of affiliation.

Inflationary expectations during Germany's great slump

Was the German slump inevitable? This paper argues that -despite thespeed and depth of Germany's deflation in the early 1930s - fear ofinflation is evident in the bond, foreign exchange, and commodity marketsat certain critical junctures of the Great Depression. Therefore, policyoptions were more limited than many subsequent critics of Brüning'spolicies have been prepared to admit. Using a rational expectationsframework, we find strong evidence from the bondmarket to suggest fearof inflation. Futures prices also reveal that market participants werebetting on price increases. These findings are discussed in the contextof reparations and related to the need for a regime shift to overcomethe crisis.

Correlates of frailty, prediction of functional decline and preventative approaches - selected results from the lausanne cohort 65+ (lc65+) study (Switzerland) (Lausanne) and the longitudinal urban cohort ageing study (Lucas) (Germany)

Overall introduction.- Longitudinal studies have been designed to investigate prospectively, from their beginning, the pathway leading from health to frailty and to disability. Knowledge about determinants of healthy ageing and health behaviour (resources) as well as risks of functional decline is required to propose appropriate preventative interventions. The functional status in older people is important considering clinical outcome in general, healthcare need and mortality. Part I.- Results and interventions from lucas (longitudinal urban cohort ageing study). Authors.- J. Anders, U. Dapp, L. Neumann, F. Pröfener, C. Minder, S. Golgert, A. Daubmann, K. Wegscheider,. W. von Renteln-Kruse Methods.- The LUCAS core project is a longitudinal cohort of urban community-dwelling people 60 years and older, recruited in 2000/2001. Further LUCAS projects are cross-sectional comparative and interventional studies (RCT). Results.- The emphasis will be on geriatric medical care in a population-based approach, discussing different forms of access, too. (Dapp et al. BMC Geriatrics 2012, 12:35; http://www.biomedcentral.com/1471-2318/12/35): - longitudinal data from the LUCAS urban cohort (n = 3.326) will be presented covering 10 years of observation, including the prediction of functional decline, need of nursing care, and mortality by using a self-filling screening tool; - interventions to prevent functional decline do focus on first (pre-clinical) signs of pre-frailty before entering the frailty-cascade ("Active Health Promotion in Old Age", "geriatric mobility centre") or disability ("home visits"). Conclusions.- The LUCAS research consortium was established to study particular aspects of functional competence, its changes with ageing, to detect pre-clinical signs of functional decline, and to address questions on how to maintain functional competence and to prevent adverse outcome in different settings. The multidimensional data base allows the exploration of several further questions. Gait performance was exmined by GAITRite®-System. Supported by the Federal Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF Funding No. 01ET1002A). Part II.- Selected results from the lausanne cohort 65+ (Lc65 + ) Study (Switzerland). Authors.- Prof Santos-Eggimann Brigitte, Dr Seematter-Bagnoud Laurence, Prof Büla Christophe, Dr Rochat Stéphane. Methods.- The Lc65+ cohort was launched in 2004 with the random selection of 3054 eligible individuals aged 65 to 70 (birth year 1934-1938) in the non-institutionalized population of Lausanne (Switzerland). Results.- Information is collected about life course social and health-related events, socio-economics, medical and psychosocial dimensions, lifestyle habits, limitations in activities of daily living, mobility impairments, and falls. Gait performance are objectively measured using body-fixed sensors. Frailty is assessed using Fried's frailty phenotype. Follow-up consists in annual self-completed questionnaires, as well as physical examination and physical and mental performance tests every three years. - Lausanne cohort 65+ (Lc65 + ): design and longitudinal outcomes. The baseline data collection was completed among 1422 participants in 2004-2005 through self-completed questionnaires, face-to-face interviews, physical examination and tests of mental and physical performances. Information about institutionalization, self-reported health services utilization, and death is also assessed. An additional random sample (n = 1525) of 65-70 years old subjects was recruited in 2009 (birth year 1939-1943). - lecture no 4: alcohol intake and gait parameters: prevalent and longitudinal association in the Lc65+ study. The association between alcohol intake and gait performance was investigated.

Against the mainstream: Nazi privatization in 1930s Germany

The Great Depression spurred State ownership in Western capitalist countries. Germany was no exception; the last governments of the Weimar Republic took over firms in diverse sectors. Later, the Nazi regime transferred public ownership and public services to the private sector. In doing so, they went against the mainstream trends in the Western capitalist countries, none of which systematically reprivatized firms during the 1930s. Privatization in Nazi Germany was also unique in transferring to private hands the delivery f public services previously provided by government. The firms and the services transferred to private ownership belonged to diverse sectors. Privatization was part of an intentional policy with multiple objectives and was not ideologically driven. As in many recent privatizations, particularly within the European Union, strong financial restrictions were a central motivation. In addition, privatization was used as a political tool to enhance support for the government and for the Nazi Party.

Stochastic Population Projection for Germany - based on the Quadratic Spline approach to modelling age specific fertility rates

This contribution builds upon a former paper by the authors (Lipps and Betz 2004), in which a stochastic population projection for East- and West Germany is performed. Aim was to forecast relevant population parameters and their distribution in a consistent way. We now present some modifications, which have been modelled since. First, population parameters for the entire German population are modelled. In order to overcome the modelling problem of the structural break in the East during reunification, we show that the adaptation process of the relevant figures by the East can be considered to be completed by now. As a consequence, German parameters can be modelled just by using the West German historic patterns, with the start-off population of entire Germany. Second, a new model to simulate age specific fertility rates is presented, based on a quadratic spline approach. This offers a higher flexibility to model various age specific fertility curves. The simulation results are compared with the scenario based official forecasts for Germany in 2050. Exemplary for some population parameters (e.g. dependency ratio), it can be shown that the range spanned by the medium and extreme variants correspond to the s-intervals in the stochastic framework. It seems therefore more appropriate to treat this range as a s-interval covering about two thirds of the true distribution.