Estimation of age- and stage-specific Catalan breast cancer survival functions using US and Catalan survival data

During the last part of the 1990s the chance of surviving breast cancer increased. Changes in survival functions reflect a mixture of effects. Both, the introduction of adjuvant treatments and early screening with mammography played a role in the decline in mortality. Evaluating the contribution of these interventions using mathematical models requires survival functions before and after their introduction. Furthermore, required survival functions may be different by age groups and are related to disease stage at diagnosis. Sometimes detailed information is not available, as was the case for the region of Catalonia (Spain). Then one may derive the functions using information from other geographical areas. This work presents the methodology used to estimate age- and stage-specific Catalan breast cancer survival functions from scarce Catalan survival data by adapting the age- and stage-specific US functions. Methods: Cubic splines were used to smooth data and obtain continuous hazard rate functions. After, we fitted a Poisson model to derive hazard ratios. The model included time as a covariate. Then the hazard ratios were applied to US survival functions detailed by age and stage to obtain Catalan estimations. Results: We started estimating the hazard ratios for Catalonia versus the USA before and after the introduction of screening. The hazard ratios were then multiplied by the age- and stage-specific breast cancer hazard rates from the USA to obtain the Catalan hazard rates. We also compared breast cancer survival in Catalonia and the USA in two time periods, before cancer control interventions (USA 1975–79, Catalonia 1980–89) and after (USA and Catalonia 1990–2001). Survival in Catalonia in the 1980–89 period was worse than in the USA during 1975–79, but the differences disappeared in 1990–2001. Conclusion: Our results suggest that access to better treatments and quality of care contributed to large improvements in survival in Catalonia. On the other hand, we obtained detailed breast cancer survival functions that will be used for modeling the effect of screening and adjuvant treatments in Catalonia

Survival analysis of female dogs with mammary tumors after mastectomy: epidemiological, clinical and morphological aspects

Abstract: Mammary gland tumors are the most common type of tumors in bitches but research on survival time after diagnosis is scarce. The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between survival time after mastectomy and a number of clinical and morphological variables. Data was collected retrospectively on bitches with mammary tumors seen at the Small Animal Surgery Clinic Service at the University of Brasília. All subjects had undergone mastectomy. Survival analysis was conducted using Cox's proportional hazard method. Of the 139 subjects analyzed, 68 died and 71 survived until the end of the study (64 months). Mean age was 11.76 years (SD=2.71), 53.84% were small dogs. 76.92% of the tumors were malignant, and 65.73% had both thoracic and inguinal glands affected. Survival time in months was associated with age (hazard rate ratios [HRR] =1.23, p-value =1.4x10-4), animal size (HRR between giant and small animals =2.61, p-value =0.02), nodule size (HRR =1.09, p-value =0.03), histological type (HRR between solid carcinoma and carcinoma in a mixed tumor =2.40, p-value =0.02), time between diagnosis and surgery (TDS, with HRR =1.21, p-value =2.7x10-15), and the interaction TDS*follow-up time (HRR =0.98, p-value =1.6x10-11). The present study is one of the few on the subject matter. Several important covariates were evaluated and age, animal size, nodule size, histological type, TDS and TDS*follow up time were identified as significantly associated to survival time.

Eradication of Helicobacter pylori infection in patients with duodenal ulcer and non-ulcer dyspepsia and analysis of one-year reinfection rates

Helicobacter pylori (HP) infection is endemic worldwide. The proposed treatment is expensive and there are few reports regarding reinfection rates in Brazil. The aim of this study was to compare the eradication rates obtained with two therapeutic options and to evaluate reinfection one year after treatment. This was a prospective randomized trial with 55 patients. Thirty-nine patients had active duodenal ulcer (DU) and 16 non-ulcer dyspepsia (NUD), and all tested positive for HP. Diagnosis was based on at least two positive tests: ultrarapid urease test, histology and/or culture. Patients were randomized to two groups: group OMC treated with 40 mg omeprazole (once a day), 500 mg metronidazole and 250 mg clarithromycin (twice daily) for 7 days, or group NA treated with 300 mg nizatidine (once a day) and 1000 mg amoxicillin (twice daily) for 14 days. Those patients in whom HP was eradicated were followed up for one year to evaluate reinfection. Twenty-five patients were randomized for OMC and 30 for NA. HP eradication occurred in 20/25 patients (80%) treated with OMC and 13/30 (43%) treated with NA (P = 0.01). After reallocation because of initial treatment failure, the overall eradication rate was 44/51 patients (86%). After an average follow-up of one year, we evaluated 34 patients (23 with DU and 11 with NUD). Reinfection occurred in 3/34 patients (7.6%). We conclude that OMC is effective for HP eradication, and that NA should not be used. Reinfection occurs in 7.6% of the patients in the first year after eradication.

Prognostic effect of high-flux hemodialysis in patients with chronic kidney disease

We investigated the prognostic effects of high-flux hemodialysis (HFHD) and low-flux hemodialysis (LFHD) in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Both an electronic and a manual search were performed based on our rigorous inclusion and exclusion criteria to retrieve high-quality, relevant clinical studies from various scientific literature databases. Comprehensive meta-analysis 2.0 (CMA 2.0) was used for the quantitative analysis. We initially retrieved 227 studies from the database search. Following a multi-step screening process, eight high-quality studies were selected for our meta-analysis. These eight studies included 4967 patients with CKD (2416 patients in the HFHD group, 2551 patients in the LFHD group). The results of our meta-analysis showed that the all-cause death rate in the HFHD group was significantly lower than that in the LFHD group (OR=0.704, 95%CI=0.533-0.929, P=0.013). Additionally, the cardiovascular death rate in the HFHD group was significantly lower than that in the LFHD group (OR=0.731, 95%CI=0.616-0.866, P<0.001). The results of this meta-analysis clearly showed that HFHD decreases all-cause death and cardiovascular death rates in patients with CKD and that HFHD can therefore be implemented as one of the first therapy choices for CKD.

Determinants of bankruptcy protection duration for Canadian firms

The present thesis examines the determinants of the bankruptcy protection duration for Canadian firms. Using a sample of Canadian firms that filed for bankruptcy protection between the calendar years 1992 and 2009, we fmd that the firm age, the industry adjusted operating margin, the default spread, the industrial production growth rate or the interest rate are influential factors on determining the length of the protection period. Older firms tend to stay longer under protection from creditors. As older firms have more complicated structures and issues to settle, the risk of exiting soon the protection (the hazard rate) is small. We also find that firms that perform better than their benchmark as measured by the industry they belong to, tend to leave quickly the bankruptcy protection state. We conclude that the fate of relatively successful companies is determined faster. Moreover, we report that it takes less time to achieve a final solution to firms under bankrupt~y when the default spread is low or when the appetite for risk is high. Conversely, during periods of high default spreads and flight for quality, it takes longer time to resolve the bankruptcy issue. This last finding may suggest that troubled firms should place themselves under protection when spreads are low. However, this ignores the endogeneity issue: high default spread may cause and incidentally reflect higher bankruptcy rates in the economy. Indeed, we find that bankruptcy protection is longer during economic downturns. We explain this relation by the natural increase in default rate among firms (and individuals) during economically troubled times. Default spreads are usually larger during these harsh periods as investors become more risk averse since their wealth shrinks. Using a Log-logistic hazard model, we also fmd that firms that file under the Companies' Creditors Arrangement Act (CCAA) protection spend longer time restructuring than firms that filed under the Bankruptcy and Insolvency Act (BIA). As BIA is more statutory and less flexible, solutions can be reached faster by court orders.

Some Properties of Weighted Distributions for Truncated Random Variables

The present study gave emphasis on characterizing continuous probability distributions and its weighted versions in univariate set up. Therefore a possible work in this direction is to study the properties of weighted distributions for truncated random variables in discrete set up. The problem of extending the measures into higher dimensions as well as its weighted versions is yet to be examined. As the present study focused attention to length-biased models, the problem of studying the properties of weighted models with various other weight functions and their functional relationships is yet to be examined.

Characterizations of Bivariate Models Using Some Dynamic Conditional Information Divergence Measures

In this article, we study some relevant information divergence measures viz. Renyi divergence and Kerridge’s inaccuracy measures. These measures are extended to conditionally specifiedmodels and they are used to characterize some bivariate distributions using the concepts of weighted and proportional hazard rate models. Moreover, some bounds are obtained for these measures using the likelihood ratio order

Estimation of age- and stage-specific Catalan breast cancer survival functions using US and Catalan survival data

During the last part of the 1990s the chance of surviving breast cancer increased. Changes in survival functions reflect a mixture of effects. Both, the introduction of adjuvant treatments and early screening with mammography played a role in the decline in mortality. Evaluating the contribution of these interventions using mathematical models requires survival functions before and after their introduction. Furthermore, required survival functions may be different by age groups and are related to disease stage at diagnosis. Sometimes detailed information is not available, as was the case for the region of Catalonia (Spain). Then one may derive the functions using information from other geographical areas. This work presents the methodology used to estimate age- and stage-specific Catalan breast cancer survival functions from scarce Catalan survival data by adapting the age- and stage-specific US functions. Methods: Cubic splines were used to smooth data and obtain continuous hazard rate functions. After, we fitted a Poisson model to derive hazard ratios. The model included time as a covariate. Then the hazard ratios were applied to US survival functions detailed by age and stage to obtain Catalan estimations. Results: We started estimating the hazard ratios for Catalonia versus the USA before and after the introduction of screening. The hazard ratios were then multiplied by the age- and stage-specific breast cancer hazard rates from the USA to obtain the Catalan hazard rates. We also compared breast cancer survival in Catalonia and the USA in two time periods, before cancer control interventions (USA 1975–79, Catalonia 1980–89) and after (USA and Catalonia 1990–2001). Survival in Catalonia in the 1980–89 period was worse than in the USA during 1975–79, but the differences disappeared in 1990–2001. Conclusion: Our results suggest that access to better treatments and quality of care contributed to large improvements in survival in Catalonia. On the other hand, we obtained detailed breast cancer survival functions that will be used for modeling the effect of screening and adjuvant treatments in Catalonia

Understanding and production of prosody in children with Williams syndrome: A developmental trajectory approach

This study investigated the development of three aspects of linguistic prosody in a group of children with Williams syndrome compared to typically developing children. The prosodic abilities investigated were: (1) the ability to understand and use prosody to make specific words or syllables stand out in an utterance (focus); (2) the ability to understand and use prosody to disambiguate complex noun phrases (chunking); (3) the ability to understand and use prosody to regulate conversational behaviour (turn-end). The data were analysed using a cross-sectional developmental trajectory approach. The results showed that, relative to chronological age, there was a delayed onset in the development of the ability of children with WS to use prosody to signal the most important word in an utterance (the focus function). Delayed rate of development was found for all the other aspects of expressive and receptive prosody under investigation. However, when non-verbal mental age was taken into consideration, there were no differences between the children with WS and the controls neither with the onset nor with the rate of development for any of the prosodic skills under investigation apart from the ability to use prosody in order to regulate conversational behaviour. We conclude that prosody is not a ‘preserved’ cognitive skill in WS. The genetic factors, development in other cognitive domains and environmental influences affect developmental pathways and as a result, development proceeds along an atypical trajectory.

Nonparametric specification tests for conditional duration models

This paper deals with the testing of autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) models by gauging the distance between the parametric density and hazard rate functions implied by the duration process and their non-parametric estimates. We derive the asymptotic justification using the functional delta method for fixed and gamma kernels, and then investigate the finite-sample properties through Monte Carlo simulations. Although our tests display some size distortion, bootstrapping suffices to correct the size without compromising their excellent power. We show the practical usefulness of such testing procedures for the estimation of intraday volatility patterns.

Os determinantes da duração do desemprego em São Paulo

This paper examines the determinants of unemployment duration in the metropolitan region of São Paulo in 1997. The descriptive statistics show that around 52% of the unemployment lived with their parents, that their average age was 27 and that 80% had between 4 and 11 years of schooling. Moreover, 85% of the 1997 unemployed left this status in the following three months, although on1y half of them effectively found a new job. The econometric results show that unemployment duration if lower for heads and for those that worked before. Moreover, duration is higher for the more educated, for those that lost their previous job, for the older and for those with longer tenure in the previous work. Finally, the hazard rate is increasing with the duration of unemployment up to the sixth month, dec1ining afterwards.

Early echocardiographic predictors of increased left ventricular end-diastolic pressure three months after myocardial infarction in rats

Background: The objective of this study was to determine the early echocardiographic predictors of elevated left ventricular end-diastolic pressure (LVEDP) after a long follow-up period in the infarcted rat model.Material/Methods: Five days and three months after surgery, sham and infarcted animals were subjected to transthoracic echocardiography. Regression analysis and receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve were performed for predicting increased LVEDP 3 months after MI.Results: Among all of the variables, assessed 5 days after myocardial infarction, infarct size (OR: 0.760; CI 95% 0.563-0.900; p=0.005), end-systolic area (ESA) (OR: 0.761; Cl 95% 0.564-0.900; p=0.008), fractional area change (FAC) (OR: 0.771; CI 95% 0.574-0.907; p=0.003), and posterior wall-shortening velocity (PWSV) (OR: 0.703; CI 95% 0.502-0.860; p=0.048) were predictors of increased LVEDP. The LVEDP was 3.6 +/- 1.8 mmHg in the control group and 9.4 +/- 7.8 mmHg among the infarcted animals (p=0.007). Considering the critical value of predictor variables in inducing cardiac dysfunction, the cut-off value was 35% for infarct size, 0.33 cm(2) for ESA, 40% for FAC, and 26 mm/s for PWSV.Conclusions: Infarct size, FAC, ESA, and PWSV, assessed five days after myocardial infarction, can be used to estimate an increased LVEDP three months following the coronary occlusion.

Obstrução nasolacrimal congênita: fatores relacionados com a melhora após sondagem terapêutica

OBJETIVO: Avaliar em crianças portadoras de obstrução nasolacrimal congênita (ONLC) os índices de cura com a sondagem das vias lacrimais e os fatores relacionados com o insucesso do procedimento. MÉTODO: Estudo retrospectivo observacional, incluindo 80 crianças portadoras de obstrução nasolacrimal congênita, submetidas à sondagem terapêutica da via lacrimal. As crianças foram avaliadas quanto ao sexo, faixa etária e resultado da sondagem. Os dados obtidos foram avaliados por estatística descritiva, teste de Goodman e pelo teste não paramétrico de Mann-Whitney, com nível de significância de 5%. RESULTADOS: A cura ocorreu igualmente em ambos os sexos. A média de idade das crianças que se beneficiaram da sondagem foi de 19,95±11,4 meses e a das crianças que não se curaram foi de 23,37±15,2 meses. A possibilidade de cura ocorreu igualmente nas faixas etárias acima dos 6 meses. Observou-se nas crianças que não se curaram com a sondagem a existência de alterações nasais como rinite, hipertrofia de adenóide ou de cornetos, desvio de septo e sinusopatia. CONCLUSÃO: A possibilidade de cura com a sondagem não varia significativamente mesmo nas idades acima dos 12 meses. Entre as causas de insucesso com o procedimento devem ser incluídas as alterações da cavidade nasal.

Extinction of a conditioned response in rainbow trout selected for high or low responsiveness to stress

Two lines of rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) that exhibit divergent endocrine responsiveness to stressors also display disparate behavioral traits. To investigate whether the high-responding (HR) and low-responding (LR) fish also differ in cognitive function, the rate of extinction of a conditioned response was compared between the two lines. Groups of HR and LR fish were exposed to a paired conditioned stimulus (CS- water off) and unconditioned stimulus (US; confinement stressor). After exposure to 18 CS-US pairings, at least 70% of individuals of both lines acquired a conditioned response (CR) manifested as an elevation of blood cortisol levels on presentation of the CS only. Post-conditioning, the fish were tested by presentation of the CS at weekly intervals, for 4 weeks, with no further reinforcement, and the extinction of the CR in the two lines was compared. The decline in mean plasma cortisol levels after exposure to the CS over successive tests suggested that the CR was retained for a shorter period among the HR (<14 days) than LR fish (<21 days). The frequency of individuals within each line whose plasma cortisol levels indicated a stress response when exposed to the CS was significantly greater among the LR than HR fish at 14 and 21 days with no HR fish falling into this category at 21 days. At 28 days post-conditioning, there were no HR fish and only three LR fish were categorized as stressed. These results suggest that there are differences in cognitive function between the two lines. Possible mechanisms underlying these differences are discussed. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.