An analysis of holding cost impact on housing affordability in relation to midsized Greenfield residential property developments in South East Queensland

The position of housing demand and supply is not consistent. The Australian situation counters the experience demonstrated in many other parts of the world in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis, with residential housing prices proving particularly resilient. A seemingly inexorable housing demand remains a critical issue affecting the socio-economic landscape. Underpinned by high levels of population growth fuelled by immigration, and further buoyed by sustained historically low interest rates, increasing income levels, and increased government assistance for first home buyers, this strong housing demand level ensures problems related to housing affordability continue almost unabated. A significant, but less visible factor impacting housing affordability relates to holding costs. Although only one contributor in the housing affordability matrix, the nature and extent of holding cost impact requires elucidation: for example, the computation and methodology behind the calculation of holding costs varies widely - and in some instances completely ignored. In addition, ambiguity exists in terms of the inclusion of various elements that comprise holding costs, thereby affecting the assessment of their relative contribution. Such anomalies may be explained by considering that assessment is conducted over time in an ever-changing environment. A strong relationship with opportunity cost - in turn dependant inter alia upon prevailing inflation and / or interest rates - adds further complexity. By extending research in the general area of housing affordability, this thesis seeks to provide a detailed investigation of those elements related to holding costs specifically in the context of midsized (i.e. between 15-200 lots) greenfield residential property developments in South East Queensland. With the dimensions of holding costs and their influence over housing affordability determined, the null hypothesis H0 that holding costs are not passed on can be addressed. Arriving at these conclusions involves the development of robust economic and econometric models which seek to clarify the componentry impacts of holding cost elements. An explanatory sequential design research methodology has been adopted, whereby the compilation and analysis of quantitative data and the development of an economic model is informed by the subsequent collection and analysis of primarily qualitative data derived from surveying development related organisations. Ultimately, there are significant policy implications in relation to the framework used in Australian jurisdictions that promote, retain, or otherwise maximise, the opportunities for affordable housing.

HMM triangle relative entropy concepts in sequential change detection applied to vision-based dim target manoeuvre detection

The quick detection of abrupt (unknown) parameter changes in an observed hidden Markov model (HMM) is important in several applications. Motivated by the recent application of relative entropy concepts in the robust sequential change detection problem (and the related model selection problem), this paper proposes a sequential unknown change detection algorithm based on a relative entropy based HMM parameter estimator. Our proposed approach is able to overcome the lack of knowledge of post-change parameters, and is illustrated to have similar performance to the popular cumulative sum (CUSUM) algorithm (which requires knowledge of the post-change parameter values) when examined, on both simulated and real data, in a vision-based aircraft manoeuvre detection problem.

Relative entropy rate based model selection for linear hybrid system filters of uncertain nonlinear systems

Hybrid system representations have been exploited in a number of challenging modelling situations, including situations where the original nonlinear dynamics are too complex (or too imprecisely known) to be directly filtered. Unfortunately, the question of how to best design suitable hybrid system models has not yet been fully addressed, particularly in the situations involving model uncertainty. This paper proposes a novel joint state-measurement relative entropy rate based approach for design of hybrid system filters in the presence of (parameterised) model uncertainty. We also present a design approach suitable for suboptimal hybrid system filters. The benefits of our proposed approaches are illustrated through design examples and simulation studies.

The relative risk of second primary cancers in Queensland, Australia: A retrospective cohort study

Background Cancer survivors face an increased likelihood of being subsequently diagnosed with another cancer. The aim of this study was to quantify the relative risk of survivors developing a second primary cancer in Queensland, Australia. Methods Standardised incidence rates stratified by type of first primary cancer, type of second primary cancer, sex, age at first diagnosis, period of first diagnosis and follow-up interval were calculated for residents of Queensland, Australia, who were diagnosed with a first primary invasive cancer between 1982 and 2001 and survived for a minimum of 2 months. Results A total of 23,580 second invasive primary cancers were observed over 1,370,247 years of follow-up among 204,962 cancer patients. Both males (SIR = 1.22; 95% CI = 1.20-1.24) and females (SIR = 1.36; 95% CI = 1.33-1.39) within the study cohort were found to have a significant excess risk of developing a second cancer relative to the incidence of cancer in the general population. The observed number of second primary cancers was also higher than expected within each age group, across all time periods and during each follow-up interval. Conclusions The excess risk of developing a second malignancy among cancer survivors can likely be attributed to factors including similar aetiologies, genetics and the effects of treatment, underlining the need for ongoing monitoring of cancer patients to detect subsequent tumours at an early stage. Education campaigns developed specifically for survivors may be required to lessen the prevalence of known cancer risk factors.

Measuring reef complexity and rugosity from monocular video bathymetric reconstruction

Topographic structural complexity of a reef is highly correlated to coral growth rates, coral cover and overall levels of biodiversity, and is therefore integral in determining ecological processes. Modeling these processes commonly includes measures of rugosity obtained from a wide range of different survey techniques that often fail to capture rugosity at different spatial scales. Here we show that accurate estimates of rugosity can be obtained from video footage captured using underwater video cameras (i.e., monocular video). To demonstrate the accuracy of our method, we compared the results to in situ measurements of a 2m x 20m area of forereef from Glovers Reef atoll in Belize. Sequential pairs of images were used to compute fine scale bathymetric reconstructions of the reef substrate from which precise measurements of rugosity and reef topographic structural complexity can be derived across multiple spatial scales. To achieve accurate bathymetric reconstructions from uncalibrated monocular video, the position of the camera for each image in the video sequence and the intrinsic parameters (e.g., focal length) must be computed simultaneously. We show that these parameters can be often determined when the data exhibits parallax-type motion, and that rugosity and reef complexity can be accurately computed from existing video sequences taken from any type of underwater camera from any reef habitat or location. This technique provides an infinite array of possibilities for future coral reef research by providing a cost-effective and automated method of determining structural complexity and rugosity in both new and historical video surveys of coral reefs.

Eliciting Expert Knowledge in Conservation Science

Expert knowledge is used widely in the science and practice of conservation because of the complexity of problems, relative lack of data, and the imminent nature of many conservation decisions. Expert knowledge is substantive information on a particular topic that is not widely known by others. An expert is someone who holds this knowledge and who is often deferred to in its interpretation. We refer to predictions by experts of what may happen in a particular context as expert judgments. In general, an expert-elicitation approach consists of five steps: deciding how information will be used, determining what to elicit, designing the elicitation process, performing the elicitation, and translating the elicited information into quantitative statements that can be used in a model or directly to make decisions. This last step is known as encoding. Some of the considerations in eliciting expert knowledge include determining how to work with multiple experts and how to combine multiple judgments, minimizing bias in the elicited information, and verifying the accuracy of expert information. We highlight structured elicitation techniques that, if adopted, will improve the accuracy and information content of expert judgment and ensure uncertainty is captured accurately. We suggest four aspects of an expert elicitation exercise be examined to determine its comprehensiveness and effectiveness: study design and context, elicitation design, elicitation method, and elicitation output. Just as the reliability of empirical data depends on the rigor with which it was acquired so too does that of expert knowledge.

Political selection and the relative age effect

In this paper we present substantial evidence for the existence of a bias in the distribution of births of leading US politicians in favor of those that have been the oldest in their cohort at school. This “relative age effect” has been proven to influence performance at school and in sports,but evidence on its impact on people’s vocational success has been rare. We find a marked break in the density of birthdate of politicians using a maximum likelihood test and McCrary’s (2008) nonparametric test. We conjecture that being relatively old in a peer group may create long term advantages which can create a significant role in the ability to succeed in a highly competitive environment like the race for top political offices in the USA. The magnitude of the effect we estimate is larger than what most other studies on the relative age effect for a broader (adult) population find, but is in general in line with studies that look at populations in high-competition environments.

Cross-cultural language learning and web design complexity

Accepting the fact that culture and language are interrelated in second language learning (SLL), the web sites should be designed to integrate with the cultural aspects. Yet many SLL web sites fail to integrate with the cultural aspects and/or focus on language acquisition only. This study identified three issues: (1) anthropologists’ cultural models mostly adopted in cross-cultural web user interface have been superficially used; (2) web designers deal with culture as a fixed one which needs to be modeled into interface design elements, so (3) there is a need for a communication framework between educators and design practitioners, which can be utilized in web design processes. This paper discusses what anthropology can contribute to language learning, mediated through web design processes and suggests a cultural user experience framework for web-based SLL by presenting an exemplary matrix. To evaluate the effectiveness of the framework, the key stakeholders (learners, teachers, and designers) participated in a case scenario-based evaluation. The result shows a high possibility that the framework can enhance the effective communication and collaboration for the cultural integration.

Engaging complexity through collaborative brand design

In this research we used inductive reasoning through design to understand how stakeholders in the Waterfall Way (New South Wales, Australia) perceive the relationships between themselves and the place they live in. This paper describes a collaborative design methodology used to release information about local identities, which guided the regional brand exercise. The methodology is explicit about the uncertainties and complexities of the design process and of its reception system. As such, it aims to engage with local stakeholders and experts in order to help elicit tacit knowledge and identify system patterns and trends that would possibly not be visible if a top-down expert-based process was used. Through collective design, local people were drawn together in search for a symbol to represent the meaning attached to their places/region in relation to sustainable tourism activity.

Investigating the complexity of judgement practice

Underlying all assessments are human judgements regarding the quality of students’ understandings. Despite their ubiquity, those judgements are conceptually elusive. The articles selected for inclusion in this issue explore the complexity of judgement practice raising critical questions that challenge existing views and accepted policy and practice.