Migrant networks and migrant intentions to return

Social ties are potentially an important determinant of migrants’ intention to return to their home country, and yet this topic has not been addressed in the existing economics literature on international migration. This study examines the absolute and relative importance of migrant social networks both at destination and at origin. We base our research on experimental data from Batista and Narciso (2013)1. By defining networks according to different characteristics of their members and migrant return intentions with respect to three different time horizons, we are able to dissect the network effect into its components. After controlling for unobserved heterogeneity and reverse causality biases we find that network at home seems to be the most important determinant of the migrant’s intention to return home within five and ten years.

Fatores de sucesso e dificuldades das spin-offs empresariais: o caso das agências de mediação de seguros

Dissertação de mestrado em Marketing e Estratégia

Risk factors for atherosclerosis in an elderly out patient population in the City of São Paulo

OBJECTIVE: To analyze in out clinic elderly patients of both sexes for the prevalence of risk factors for atherosclerosis and study their association with the complications of atherosclerosis. METHODS: Five hundred and sixteen outpatients, 152 men and 364 women, 60 years or older, were studied. The prevalences of hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes mellitus, cigarette smoking and obesity were determined in both sexes and compared using the chi-square test. The association between these factors and the presence of atherosclerotic complications was analyzed by logistic regression. RESULTS: The comparative analysis of the factors in both sexes showed that hypertension, total cholesterol > or = 240mg/dL, LDL-cholesterol > or = 160mg/dL, and body mass index >27.5 were more frequent among women, but HDL-cholesterol <35mg/dL and cigarette smoking were more frequent among men, and no difference occurred between sexes in relation to the frequency of triglycerides > or = 250mg/dL and diabetes mellitus. After adjustment of the variables in the regression model, we observed that in the total of elderly patients, risk factors for complications of atherosclerosis were: triglycerides > or = 250mg/dL, hypertension, and male sex. Among men, the risk factors were: LDL-cholesterol > or = 160mg/dL, diabetes mellitus, HDL-cholesterol <35mg/dL and hypertension. Among women, the risk factors were: tryglicerides > or = 250mg/dL and hypertension. CONCLUSION: The results showed that, in the elderly, the risk factors for atherosclerosis persist, but with different behaviors between men and women. The study suggests that the relative importance of the risk factors can change with the aging process.

Cephalopoda as prey of juvenile Southern elephant seals at Isla 25 de Mayo/King George, South Shetland Islands

The aim of the present study was to enhance the knowledge of the feeding habits of the juvenile component of the population of Southern elephant seals [Mirounga leonina (Linnaeus, 1758)] from Isla 25 de Mayo, South Shetland Islands, age class whose diet information is scarce. A total of 60 individuals were stomach lavaged in the spring - summer seasons of three consecutive years (2003, 2004 and 2005) of which 53.3 % (n = 32) presented food remnants. The Antarctic glacial squid Psychroteuthis glacialis Thiele, 1921 was the dominant prey taxon in terms of frequency of occurrence (68.7%), numerical abundance (60.1%) and biomass (51.5%), contributing 84.1% to the total relative importance index. Other squid prey species of importance were Slosarczykovia circumantartica Lipinski, 2001 in terms of occurrence (37.5%) and numerical abundance (14%) and Moroteuthis knipovitchi Filippova, 1972 in terms of biomass (16%). All identified cephalopod prey taxa are distributed south of the Antarctic Polar Front, except for the squid Martialia hyadesi Rochebrune & Mabille, 1889 which has a circumpolar distribution associated to the Polar Frontal Zone. No significant differences in the sizes of P. glacialis preyed upon by elephant seals were found between sexes and years. However, significant interannual differences were found in the taxonomical composition of their diet. This would be associated with temporal changes in food availability at the foraging areas of seals, which in turn may have been influenced by changes in oceanographic conditions as a result of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon that occurred during part of the study period. Furthermore, a differential response of males and females to this temporal variation was observed, with the former being also associated to a predation on octopods. This would suggest a sexual segregation in foraging habits of this species from the early stages of its life cycle.

A Rembrandt is a Rembrandt

As paintings are assets, we propose to model a painting's price dynamics as a diffusion process, i.e., as the financial literature models share prices, but correcting by size. We show that the influence of size on the artwork price diminishes as the paintings gets older because 1) prices incorporate progressively more noise and 2) for high quality artists, the relative importance of size on price decreases as the artist consolidates and authorship gains importance as explanatory variable. Our theoretical results are consistent with data from a sample of 19th- and 20th-century Catalan painters of similar quality. These findings suggest that an artist's quality and antiquity should be taken into account in order to obtain more efficient estimates of parameters in hedonic art market models.

In vivo and in vitro effects of somatostatin and insulin on glucagon release in a human glucagonoma.

Inhibition of pancreatic glucagon secretion has been reported to be mediated by glucose, insulin and somatostatin. As no human pancreatic alpha-cell lines are available to study in vitro the relative importance of insulin and glucose in the control of pancreatic glucagon release, we investigated a patient presenting with a malignant glucagonoma who underwent surgical resection of the tumour. Functional somatostatin receptors were present as octreotide administration decreased basal glucagon and insulin secretion by 52 and 74%, respectively. The removed tumour was immunohistochemically positive for glucagon, chromogranin A and pancreatic polypeptide but negative for insulin, gastrin and somatostatin. The glucagonoma cells were also isolated and cultured in vitro. Incubation experiments revealed that change from high (10 mM) to low (1 mM) glucose concentration was unable to stimulate glucagon secretion. A dose-dependent inhibition of glucagon release by insulin was however, observed at low glucose concentration. These findings demonstrate that insulin could inhibit glucagon secretion in vitro in the absence of elevated glucose concentrations. These data suggest, as observed in vivo and in vitro in several animal studies, that glucopenia-induced glucagon secretion in humans is not mediated by a direct effect of low glucose on alpha-cells but possibly by a reduction of insulin-mediated alpha-cell suppression and/or an indirect neuronal stimulation of glucagon release.

Benchmarking therapeutic drug monitoring software: A review of available computer tools

Therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) aims to optimize treatments by individualizing dosage regimens based on the measurement of blood concentrations. Dosage individualization to maintain concentrations within a target range requires pharmacokinetic and clinical capabilities. Bayesian calculations currently represent the gold standard TDM approach but require computation assistance. In recent decades computer programs have been developed to assist clinicians in this assignment. The aim of this survey was to assess and compare computer tools designed to support TDM clinical activities. The literature and the Internet were searched to identify software. All programs were tested on personal computers. Each program was scored against a standardized grid covering pharmacokinetic relevance, user friendliness, computing aspects, interfacing and storage. A weighting factor was applied to each criterion of the grid to account for its relative importance. To assess the robustness of the software, six representative clinical vignettes were processed through each of them. Altogether, 12 software tools were identified, tested and ranked, representing a comprehensive review of the available software. Numbers of drugs handled by the software vary widely (from two to 180), and eight programs offer users the possibility of adding new drug models based on population pharmacokinetic analyses. Bayesian computation to predict dosage adaptation from blood concentration (a posteriori adjustment) is performed by ten tools, while nine are also able to propose a priori dosage regimens, based only on individual patient covariates such as age, sex and bodyweight. Among those applying Bayesian calculation, MM-USC*PACK© uses the non-parametric approach. The top two programs emerging from this benchmark were MwPharm© and TCIWorks. Most other programs evaluated had good potential while being less sophisticated or less user friendly. Programs vary in complexity and might not fit all healthcare settings. Each software tool must therefore be regarded with respect to the individual needs of hospitals or clinicians. Programs should be easy and fast for routine activities, including for non-experienced users. Computer-assisted TDM is gaining growing interest and should further improve, especially in terms of information system interfacing, user friendliness, data storage capability and report generation.

Discordances between phylogenetic and morphological patterns in alpine leaf beetles attest to an intricate biogeographic history of lineages in postglacial Europe.

Pleistocene glacial and interglacial periods have moulded the evolutionary history of European cold-adapted organisms. The role of the different mountain massifs has, however, not been accurately investigated in the case of high-altitude insect species. Here, we focus on three closely related species of non-flying leaf beetles of the genus Oreina (Coleoptera, Chrysomelidae), which are often found in sympatry within the mountain ranges of Europe. After showing that the species concept as currently applied does not match barcoding results, we show, based on more than 700 sequences from one nuclear and three mitochondrial genes, the role of biogeography in shaping the phylogenetic hypothesis. Dating the phylogeny using an insect molecular clock, we show that the earliest lineages diverged more than 1 Mya and that the main shift in diversification rate occurred between 0.36 and 0.18 Mya. By using a probabilistic approach on the parsimony-based dispersal/vicariance framework (MP-DIVA) as well as a direct likelihood method of state change optimization, we show that the Alps acted as a cross-roads with multiple events of dispersal to and reinvasion from neighbouring mountains. However, the relative importance of vicariance vs. dispersal events on the process of rapid diversification remains difficult to evaluate because of a bias towards overestimation of vicariance in the DIVA algorithm. Parallels are drawn with recent studies of cold-adapted species, although our study reveals novel patterns in diversity and genetic links between European mountains, and highlights the importance of neglected regions, such as the Jura and the Balkanic range.

The origins of C4 grasslands: integrating evolutionary and ecosystem science.

The evolution of grasses using C4 photosynthesis and their sudden rise to ecological dominance 3 to 8 million years ago is among the most dramatic examples of biome assembly in the geological record. A growing body of work suggests that the patterns and drivers of C4 grassland expansion were considerably more complex than originally assumed. Previous research has benefited substantially from dialog between geologists and ecologists, but current research must now integrate fully with phylogenetics. A synthesis of grass evolutionary biology with grassland ecosystem science will further our knowledge of the evolution of traits that promote dominance in grassland systems and will provide a new context in which to evaluate the relative importance of C4 photosynthesis in transforming ecosystems across large regions of Earth.

IInflation and Globalisation: A Dynamic Factor Model with Stochastic Volatility

National inflation rates reflect domestic and international (regional and global) influences. The relative importance of these components remains a controversial empirical issue. We extend the literature on inflation co-movement by utilising a dynamic factor model with stochastic volatility to account for shifts in the variance of inflation and endogenously determined regional groupings. We find that most of inflation variability is explained by the country specific disturbance term. Nevertheless, the contribution of the global component in explaining industrialised countries’ inflation rates has increased over time.

Optimal contracting with private information on cost expectation and variability

We study the screening problem that arises in a framework where, initially, the agent is privately informed about both the expected production cost and the cost variability and, at a later stage, he learns privately the cost realization. The speci c set of relevant incentive constraints, and so the characteristics of the optimal mechanism, depend nely upon the curvature of the principal s marginal surplus function as well as the relative importance of the two initial information problems. Pooling of production levels is optimally induced with respect to the cost variability when the principal's knowledge imperfection about the latter is sufficiently less important than that about the expected cost.

How much does industry matter in an emerging market economy?

Theories of firm profitability make different predictions about the relative importance of firm, industry and time specific factors. We assess, empirically, the relevance of these effects over a sixteen year period in India, as a regime of control and regulation, pre 1985, gave way to partial liberalisation between 1985 and 1991 and to more decisive liberalisation after 1991. We find that firm effects are important throughout, when rent seeking opportunities proliferated, as well as when competitive forces were enhanced by institutional change. In contrast, industry effects significantly increased after liberalisation, suggesting that industry structure matters more within competitive markets. These findings help understand the relevance of different models over different stages of liberalisation, and have important implications for both theory and policy.

The Distribution Dynamics of Output Multipliers in Scotland 1998–2007

In an input-output context the impact of any particular industrial sector is commonly measured in terms of the output multiplier for that industry. Although such measures are routinely calculated and often used to guide regional industrial policy the behaviour of such measures over time is an area that has attracted little academic study. The output multipliers derived from any one table will have a distribution; for some industries the multiplier will be relatively high, for some it will be relatively low. The recentpublication of consistent input-output tables for the Scottish economy makes it possible to examine trends in this mdistribution over the ten year period 1998-2007. This is done by comparing the means and other summary measures of the distributions, the histograms and the cumulative densities. The results indicate a tendency for the multipliers to increase over the period. A Markov chain modelling approach suggests that this drift is a slow but long term phenomenon which appears not to tend to an equilibrium state. The prime reason for the increase in the output multipliers is traced to a decline in the relative importance of imported (both from the rest of the UK and the rest of the world) intermediate inputs used by Scottish industries. This suggests that models calibrated on the set of tables might have to be interpreted with caution.

The Commons and anti-commons problems in the tourism economy

Countries specialised in tourism tend to face two problems with contradictory effects: the commons and the anti-commons, which lead to tourism over- and under-production, respectively. This paper develops a two-period model to analyse the joint effects of both problems on a small and remote tourism economy. Congestion and the complementariness between foreign transport and local tourism services are key features in this type of markets. As a result, direct selling and the presence of foreign tour-operators emerge as possible market arrangements with different implications in terms of welfare and public intervention. Four main results are obtained. First, in the direct selling situation the optimal policy depends on the relative importance of the problems. Second, the existence of tour-operators always leads to tourism over-production. Third, the presence of a single tour-operator does not solve the congestion problem. Lastly, the switch from several tour-operators to a single one is welfare reducing.

How are temporal and social comparisons related to appraisals of self-rated health during very old age?

This study investigated the direction of effects of temporal and downward social comparisons on self-rated health in very old age. Self-rated health can either reinforce or hinder comparison processes. In the framework of the Swiss Interdisciplinary Longitudinal Study on the Oldest Old, individuals aged 80 to 84 at baseline were interviewed and followed longitudinally for 5 years. Multilevel analyses were used to test the relative importance of temporal and social comparisons on self-rated health evaluations synchronically and diachronically (with a time lag of 12 to 18 months) as well as the direction of these relative influences. Results indicate that (a) at the synchronic level, continuity temporal comparisons have more impact than downward social comparisons on self-rated health; (b) both types of comparison had an independent and positive effect on self-rated health at the diachronic level; (c) self-rated health has an independent synchronic effect on both types of comparison and an independent diachronic effect in temporal comparison.