Multi-agent negotiation for coalition formation and management in electricity markets

Negotiation is a fundamental tool for reaching understandings that allow each involved party to gain an advantage for themselves by the end of the process. In recent years, with the increasing of compe-titiveness in most sectors, negotiation procedures become present in practically all of them. One particular environment in which the competitiveness has been increasing exponentially is the electricity markets sector. This work is directed to the study of electricity markets’ partici-pating entities interaction, namely in what concerns the formation, management and operation of aggregating entities – Virtual Power Players (VPPs). VPPs are responsible for managing coalitions of market players with small market negotiating influence, which take strategic advantage in entering such aggregations, to increase their negotiating power. This chapter presents a negotiation methodology for the creation and management of coalitions in Electricity Markets. This approach is tested using MASCEM, taking advantage of its ability to provide the means to model and simulate VPPs. VPPs are represented as coalitions of agents, with the capability of negotiating both in the market, and internally, with their members, in order to combine and manage their individual specific characteristics and goals, with the strategy and objectives of the VPP itself.

Virtual power producers simulation - negotiating renewable distributed generation in competitive electricity markets

Sustainable development concerns made renewable energy sources to be increasingly used for electricity distributed generation. However, this is mainly due to incentives or mandatory targets determined by energy policies as in European Union. Assuring a sustainable future requires distributed generation to be able to participate in competitive electricity markets. To get more negotiation power in the market and to get advantages of scale economy, distributed generators can be aggregated giving place to a new concept: the Virtual Power Producer (VPP). VPPs are multi-technology and multisite heterogeneous entities that should adopt organization and management methodologies so that they can make distributed generation a really profitable activity, able to participate in the market. This paper presents ViProd, a simulation tool that allows simulating VPPs operation, in the context of MASCEM, a multi-agent based eletricity market simulator.

Transmission tariffs in competitive electricity markets

In context of electricity market, the transmission price is an important tool to an efficient development of the electricity system. The electricity market is influenced by several factors; however the transmission network management is one of the most important aspects, because the network is a natural monopoly. The transmission tariffs can help to regulate the market, for that reason evaluate tariff must have strict criterions. This paper explains several methodologies to tariff the use of transmission network by transmission network users. The methods presented are: Post-Stamp Method; MW-Mile Method; Distribution Factors Methods; Tracing Methodology; Bialek’s Tracing Method and Locational Marginal Price.

Nodal price simulation in competitive electricity markets

Locational Marginal Prices (LMP) are important pricing signals for the participants of competitive electricity markets, as the effects of transmission losses and binding constraints are embedded in LMPs [1],[2]. This paper presents a software tool that evaluates the nodal marginal prices considering losses and congestion. The initial dispatch is based on all the electricity transactions negotiated in the pool and in bilateral contracts. It must be checked if the proposed initial dispatch leads to congestion problems; if a congestion situation is detected, it must be solved. An AC power flow is used to verify if there are congestion situations in the initial dispatch. Whenever congestion situations are detected, they are solved and a feasible dispatch (re-dispatch) is obtained. After solving the congestion problems, the simulator evaluates LMP. The paper presents a case study based on the the 118 IEEE bus test network.

Dgenco market balancing - cost repartition under light regulation markets

In this paper we present a new methodology, based in game theory, to obtain the market balancing between Distribution Generation Companies (DGENCO), in liberalized electricity markets. The new contribution of this methodology is the verification of the participation rate of each agent based in Nucléolo Balancing and in Shapley Value. To validate the results we use the Zaragoza Distribution Network with 42 Bus and 5 DGENCO.

A long-term swarm intelligence hedging tool applied to electricity markets

This paper proposes a swarm intelligence long-term hedging tool to support electricity producers in competitive electricity markets. This tool investigates the long-term hedging opportunities available to electric power producers through the use of contracts with physical (spot and forward) and financial (options) settlement. To find the optimal portfolio the producer risk preference is stated by a utility function (U) expressing the trade-off between the expectation and the variance of the return. Variance estimation and the expected return are based on a forecasted scenario interval determined by a long-term price range forecast model, developed by the authors, whose explanation is outside the scope of this paper. The proposed tool makes use of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and its performance has been evaluated by comparing it with a Genetic Algorithm (GA) based approach. To validate the risk management tool a case study, using real price historical data for mainland Spanish market, is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

Electricity markets: transmission prices methods

In the context of electricity markets, transmission pricing is an important tool to achieve an efficient operation of the electricity system. The electricity market is influenced by several factors; however the transmission network management is one of the most important aspects, because the network is a natural monopoly. The transmission tariffs can help to regulate the market, for this reason transmission tariffs must follow strict criteria. This paper presents the following methods to tariff the use of transmission networks by electricity market players: Post-Stamp Method; MW-Mile Method Distribution Factors Methods; Tracing Methodology; Bialek’s Tracing Method and Locational Marginal Price. A nine bus transmission network is used to illustrate the application of the tariff methods.

A long-term risk management tool for electricity markets using swarm intelligence

This paper addresses the optimal involvement in derivatives electricity markets of a power producer to hedge against the pool price volatility. To achieve this aim, a swarm intelligence meta-heuristic optimization technique for long-term risk management tool is proposed. This tool investigates the long-term opportunities for risk hedging available for electric power producers through the use of contracts with physical (spot and forward contracts) and financial (options contracts) settlement. The producer risk preference is formulated as a utility function (U) expressing the trade-off between the expectation and the variance of the return. Variance of return and the expectation are based on a forecasted scenario interval determined by a long-term price range forecasting model. This model also makes use of particle swarm optimization (PSO) to find the best parameters allow to achieve better forecasting results. On the other hand, the price estimation depends on load forecasting. This work also presents a regressive long-term load forecast model that make use of PSO to find the best parameters as well as in price estimation. The PSO technique performance has been evaluated by comparison with a Genetic Algorithm (GA) based approach. A case study is presented and the results are discussed taking into account the real price and load historical data from mainland Spanish electricity market demonstrating the effectiveness of the methodology handling this type of problems. Finally, conclusions are dully drawn.

AI in power systems and energy markets

In a world increasingly conscientious about environmental effects, power and energy systems are undergoing huge transformations. Electric energy produced from power plants is transmitted and distributed to end users through a power grid. The power industry performs the engineering design, installation, operation, and maintenance tasks to provide a high-quality, secure energy supply while accounting for its systems’ abilities to withstand uncertain events, such as weather-related outages. Competitive, deregulated electricity markets and new renewable energy sources, however, have further complicated this already complex infrastructure.Sustainable development has also been a challenge for power systems. Recently, there has been a signifi cant increase in the installation of distributed generations, mainly based on renewable resources such as wind and solar. Integrating these new generation systems leads to more complexity. Indeed, the number of generation sources greatly increases as the grid embraces numerous smaller and distributed resources. In addition, the inherent uncertainties of wind and solar energy lead to technical challenges such as forecasting, scheduling, operation, control, and risk management. In this special issue introductory article, we analyze the key areas in this field that can benefi t most from AI and intelligent systems now and in the future.We also identify new opportunities for cross-fertilization between power systems and energy markets and intelligent systems researchers.

Arrow Plot: a new graphical tool for selecting up and down regulated genes and genes differentially expressed on samples subgroups

Background: A common task in analyzing microarray data is to determine which genes are differentially expressed across two (or more) kind of tissue samples or samples submitted under experimental conditions. Several statistical methods have been proposed to accomplish this goal, generally based on measures of distance between classes. It is well known that biological samples are heterogeneous because of factors such as molecular subtypes or genetic background that are often unknown to the experimenter. For instance, in experiments which involve molecular classification of tumors it is important to identify significant subtypes of cancer. Bimodal or multimodal distributions often reflect the presence of subsamples mixtures. Consequently, there can be genes differentially expressed on sample subgroups which are missed if usual statistical approaches are used. In this paper we propose a new graphical tool which not only identifies genes with up and down regulations, but also genes with differential expression in different subclasses, that are usually missed if current statistical methods are used. This tool is based on two measures of distance between samples, namely the overlapping coefficient (OVL) between two densities and the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The methodology proposed here was implemented in the open-source R software. Results: This method was applied to a publicly available dataset, as well as to a simulated dataset. We compared our results with the ones obtained using some of the standard methods for detecting differentially expressed genes, namely Welch t-statistic, fold change (FC), rank products (RP), average difference (AD), weighted average difference (WAD), moderated t-statistic (modT), intensity-based moderated t-statistic (ibmT), significance analysis of microarrays (samT) and area under the ROC curve (AUC). On both datasets all differentially expressed genes with bimodal or multimodal distributions were not selected by all standard selection procedures. We also compared our results with (i) area between ROC curve and rising area (ABCR) and (ii) the test for not proper ROC curves (TNRC). We found our methodology more comprehensive, because it detects both bimodal and multimodal distributions and different variances can be considered on both samples. Another advantage of our method is that we can analyze graphically the behavior of different kinds of differentially expressed genes. Conclusion: Our results indicate that the arrow plot represents a new flexible and useful tool for the analysis of gene expression profiles from microarrays.

Commercial agents portfolio optimization in electricity markets

As it is well known, competitive electricity markets require new computing tools for power companies that operate in retail markets in order to enhance the management of its energy resources. During the last years there has been an increase of the renewable penetration into the micro-generation which begins to co-exist with the other existing power generation, giving rise to a new type of consumers. This paper develops a methodology to be applied to the management of the all the aggregators. The aggregator establishes bilateral contracts with its clients where the energy purchased and selling conditions are negotiated not only in terms of prices but also for other conditions that allow more flexibility in the way generation and consumption is addressed. The aggregator agent needs a tool to support the decision making in order to compose and select its customers' portfolio in an optimal way, for a given level of profitability and risk.

OsRMC, a negative regulator of salt stress response in rice, is regulated by two AP2/ERF transcription factors

High salinity causes remarkable losses in rice productivity worldwide mainly because it inhibits growth and reduces grain yield. To cope with environmental changes, plants evolved several adaptive mechanisms, which involve the regulation of many stress-responsive genes. Among these, we have chosen OsRMC to study its transcriptional regulation in rice seedlings subjected to high salinity. Its transcription was highly induced by salt treatment and showed a stress-dose-dependent pattern. OsRMC encodes a receptor-like kinase described as a negative regulator of salt stress responses in rice. To investigate how OsRMC is regulated in response to high salinity, a salt-induced rice cDNA expression library was constructed and subsequently screened using the yeast one-hybrid system and the OsRMC promoter as bait. Thereby, two transcription factors (TFs), OsEREBP1 and OsEREBP2, belonging to the AP2/ERF family were identified. Both TFs were shown to bind to the same GCC-like DNA motif in OsRMC promoter and to negatively regulate its gene expression. The identified TFs were characterized regarding their gene expression under different abiotic stress conditions. This study revealed that OsEREBP1 transcript level is not significantly affected by salt, ABA or severe cold (5 °C) and is only slightly regulated by drought and moderate cold. On the other hand, the OsEREBP2 transcript level increased after cold, ABA, drought and high salinity treatments, indicating that OsEREBP2 may play a central role mediating the response to different abiotic stresses. Gene expression analysis in rice varieties with contrasting salt tolerance further suggests that OsEREBP2 is involved in salt stress response in rice.

A contabilidade até à harmonização contabilística: as grandes mudanças do SNC e seus impactos

Mestrado em Contabilidade

Adaptive learning in agents behaviour: a framework for electricity markets simulation

Electricity markets are complex environments with very particular characteristics. A critical issue regarding these specific characteristics concerns the constant changes they are subject to. This is a result of the electricity markets’ restructuring, which was performed so that the competitiveness could be increased, but it also had exponential implications in the increase of the complexity and unpredictability in those markets scope. The constant growth in markets unpredictability resulted in an amplified need for market intervenient entities in foreseeing market behaviour. The need for understanding the market mechanisms and how the involved players’ interaction affects the outcomes of the markets, contributed to the growth of usage of simulation tools. Multi-agent based software is particularly well fitted to analyze dynamic and adaptive systems with complex interactions among its constituents, such as electricity markets. This dissertation presents ALBidS – Adaptive Learning strategic Bidding System, a multiagent system created to provide decision support to market negotiating players. This system is integrated with the MASCEM electricity market simulator, so that its advantage in supporting a market player can be tested using cases based on real markets’ data. ALBidS considers several different methodologies based on very distinct approaches, to provide alternative suggestions of which are the best actions for the supported player to perform. The approach chosen as the players’ actual action is selected by the employment of reinforcement learning algorithms, which for each different situation, simulation circumstances and context, decides which proposed action is the one with higher possibility of achieving the most success. Some of the considered approaches are supported by a mechanism that creates profiles of competitor players. These profiles are built accordingly to their observed past actions and reactions when faced with specific situations, such as success and failure. The system’s context awareness and simulation circumstances analysis, both in terms of results performance and execution time adaptation, are complementary mechanisms, which endow ALBidS with further adaptation and learning capabilities.

Rate regulated activities: a problemática do relato financeiro e da sua auditoria: o caso da navegação aérea no contexto europeu

A navegação aérea, enquanto atividade regulada, está sujeita a legislação específica, dependendo o seu exercício de autorização própria atribuída por uma entidade supervisora, que também verifica as tarifas a aplicar. O regulamento (CE) N.º 550/2004 identifica os requisitos comuns para a prestação de serviços de navegação aérea na Europa, dando particular importância à transparência do relato financeiro ao exigir a sua elaboração segundo as normas internacionais de contabilidade e a verificação por uma auditoria independente. Adicionalmente, o Regulamento (EU) N.º 1191/2010, que alterou o Regulamento (CE) N.º 1794/2006, estabelece o regime comum de tarifação de tais serviços, nomeadamente a recuperabilidade de desvios relativos ao volume de tráfego e aos gastos controláveis e não controláveis. Ao nível do enquadramento contabilístico, as atividades reguladas não têm uma norma específica. Existem dois projetos do IASB – um de 2009, que foi suspenso, e um de 2013, relativo à implementação de uma norma transitória que incentive a adoção das normas internacionais por entidades que exerçam atividades reguladas. Existe, ainda, uma norma do FASB não aplicável no espaço europeu. Os R&C de várias entidades evidenciam a existência de diferentes referenciais contabilísticos e que a generalidade dos relatórios de auditoria não tem reservas ou ênfases. Enquanto algumas entidades apenas divulgam os montantes dos desvios, outras entidades consideram que tais montantes se qualificam, reconhecendo-os. Tal facto decorre da inexistência de uma norma internacional que põe em causa a comparabilidade da informação financeira e dificulta o julgamento do auditor quanto à adequação ou não dos procedimentos adotados pela entidade.