Precipitation predictability during summer crop production in the Pampas Region of Argentina

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El valor del agua a partir del mercado regional : el caso de la producción de arroz con riego en el litoral argentino

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Precipitation predictability during summer crop production in the Pampas Region of Argentina

p.9-20

Potential consequences of climate change for primary production and fish production in large marine ecosystems

Existing methods to predict the effects of climate change on the biomass and production of marine communities are predicated on modelling the interactions and dynamics of individual species, a very challenging approach when interactions and distributions are changing and little is known about the ecological mechanisms driving the responses of many species. An informative parallel approach is to develop size-based methods. These capture the properties of food webs that describe energy flux and production at a particular size, independent of species' ecology. We couple a physical-biogeochemical model with a dynamic, size-based food web model to predict the future effects of climate change on fish biomass and production in 11 large regional shelf seas, with and without fishing effects. Changes in potential fish production are shown to most strongly mirror changes in phytoplankton production. We project declines of 30-60% in potential fish production across some important areas of tropical shelf and upwelling seas, most notably in the eastern Indo-Pacific, the northern Humboldt and the North Canary Current. Conversely, in some areas of the high latitude shelf seas, the production of pelagic predators was projected to increase by 28-89%.

Impacts of climate change on marine ecosystem production in societies dependent on fisheries

Growing human populations and changing dietary preferences are increasing global demands for fish, adding pressure to concerns over fisheries sustainability. Here we develop and link models of physical, biological and human responses to climate change in 67 marine national exclusive economic zones, which yield approximately 60% of global fish catches, to project climate change yield impacts in countries with different dependencies on marine fisheries. Predicted changes in fish production indicate increased productivity at high latitudes and decreased productivity at low/mid latitudes, with considerable regional variations. With few exceptions, increases and decreases in fish production potential by 2050 are estimated to be <10% (mean C3.4%) from present yields. Among the nations showing a high dependency on fisheries, climate change is predicted to increase productive potential in West Africa and decrease it in South and Southeast Asia. Despite projected human population increases and assuming that per capita fish consumption rates will be maintained1, ongoing technological development in the aquaculture industry suggests that projected global fish demands in 2050 could be met, thus challenging existing predictions of inevitable shortfalls in fish supply by the mid-twenty-first century. This conclusion, however, is contingent on successful implementation of strategies for sustainable harvesting and effective distribution of wild fish products from nations and regions with a surplus to those with a deficit. Changes in management effectiveness2 and trade practices5 will remain the main influence on realized gains or losses in global fish production.

The influence of ocean acidification on nitrogen regeneration and nitrous oxide production in the North-West European shelf sea

The assimilation and regeneration of dissolved inorganic nitrogen, and the concentration of N2O, was investigated at stations located in the NW European shelf sea during June/July 2011. These observational measurements within the photic zone demonstrated the simultaneous regeneration and assimilation of NH4+, NO2− and NO3−. NH4+ was assimilated at 1.82–49.12 nmol N L−1 h−1 and regenerated at 3.46–14.60 nmol N L−1 h−1; NO2− was assimilated at 0–2.08 nmol N L−1 h−1 and regenerated at 0.01–1.85 nmol N L−1 h−1; NO3− was assimilated at 0.67–18.75 nmol N L−1 h−1 and regenerated at 0.05–28.97 nmol N L−1 h−1. Observations implied that these processes were closely coupled at the regional scale and nitrogen recycling played an important role in sustaining phytoplankton growth during the summer. The [N2O], measured in water column profiles, was 10.13 ± 1.11 nmol L−1 and did not strongly diverge from atmospheric equilibrium indicating that sampled marine regions where neither a strong source nor sink of N2O to the atmosphere. Multivariate analysis of data describing water column biogeochemistry and its links to N-cycling activity failed to explain the observed variance in rates of N-regeneration and N-assimilation, possibly due to the limited number of process rate observations. In the surface waters of 5 further stations, Ocean Acidification (OA) bioassay experiments were conducted to investigate the response of NH4+ oxidising and regenerating organisms to simulated OA conditions, including the implications for [N2O]. Multivariate analysis was undertaken which considered the complete bioassay dataset of measured variables describing changes in N-regeneration rate, [N2O] and the biogeochemical composition of seawater. While anticipating biogeochemical differences between locations, we aimed to test the hypothesis that the underlying mechanism through which pelagic N-regeneration responded to simulated OA conditions was independent of location and that a mechanistic understanding of how NH4+ oxidation, NH4+ regeneration and N2O production responded to OA could be developed. Results indicated that N-regeneration process responses to OA treatments were location specific; no mechanistic understanding of how N-regeneration processes respond to OA in the surface ocean of the NW European shelf sea could be developed.

The influence of ocean acidification on nitrogen regeneration and nitrous oxide production in the North-West European shelf sea

The assimilation and regeneration of dissolved inorganic nitrogen, and the concentration of N2O, was investigated at stations located in the NW European shelf sea during June/July 2011. These observational measurements within the photic zone demonstrated the simultaneous regeneration and assimilation of NH4+, NO2− and NO3−. NH4+ was assimilated at 1.82–49.12 nmol N L−1 h−1 and regenerated at 3.46–14.60 nmol N L−1 h−1; NO2− was assimilated at 0–2.08 nmol N L−1 h−1 and regenerated at 0.01–1.85 nmol N L−1 h−1; NO3− was assimilated at 0.67–18.75 nmol N L−1 h−1 and regenerated at 0.05–28.97 nmol N L−1 h−1. Observations implied that these processes were closely coupled at the regional scale and nitrogen recycling played an important role in sustaining phytoplankton growth during the summer. The [N2O], measured in water column profiles, was 10.13 ± 1.11 nmol L−1 and did not strongly diverge from atmospheric equilibrium indicating that sampled marine regions where neither a strong source nor sink of N2O to the atmosphere. Multivariate analysis of data describing water column biogeochemistry and its links to N-cycling activity failed to explain the observed variance in rates of N-regeneration and N-assimilation, possibly due to the limited number of process rate observations. In the surface waters of 5 further stations, Ocean Acidification (OA) bioassay experiments were conducted to investigate the response of NH4+ oxidising and regenerating organisms to simulated OA conditions, including the implications for [N2O]. Multivariate analysis was undertaken which considered the complete bioassay dataset of measured variables describing changes in N-regeneration rate, [N2O] and the biogeochemical composition of seawater. While anticipating biogeochemical differences between locations, we aimed to test the hypothesis that the underlying mechanism through which pelagic N-regeneration responded to simulated OA conditions was independent of location and that a mechanistic understanding of how NH4+ oxidation, NH4+ regeneration and N2O production responded to OA could be developed. Results indicated that N-regeneration process responses to OA treatments were location specific; no mechanistic understanding of how N-regeneration processes respond to OA in the surface ocean of the NW European shelf sea could be developed.

The influence of ocean acidification on nitrogen regeneration and nitrous oxide production in the northwest European shelf sea

The assimilation and regeneration of dissolved inorganic nitrogen, and the concentration of N₂O, was investigated at stations located in the NW European shelf sea during June/July 2011. These observational measurements within the photic zone demonstrated the simultaneous regeneration and assimilation of NH₄⁺, NO₂⁻ and NO₃⁻. NH₄⁺ was assimilated at 1.82–49.12 nmol N L⁻¹ h⁻¹ and regenerated at 3.46–14.60 nmol N L⁻¹ h⁻¹; NO₂^- was assimilated at 0–2.08 nmol N L⁻¹ h⁻¹ and regenerated at 0.01–1.85 nmol N L⁻¹ h⁻¹; NO₃⁻ was assimilated at 0.67–18.75 nmol N L⁻¹ h⁻¹ and regenerated at 0.05–28.97 nmol N L⁻¹ h⁻¹. Observations implied that these processes were closely coupled at the regional scale and that nitrogen recycling played an important role in sustaining phytoplankton growth during the summer. The [N₂O], measured in water column profiles, was 10.13 ± 1.11 nmol L⁻¹ and did not strongly diverge from atmospheric equilibrium indicating that sampled marine regions were neither a strong source nor sink of N₂O to the atmosphere. Multivariate analysis of data describing water column biogeochemistry and its links to N-cycling activity failed to explain the observed variance in rates of N-regeneration and N-assimilation, possibly due to the limited number of process rate observations. In the surface waters of five further stations, ocean acidification (OA) bioassay experiments were conducted to investigate the response of NH₄⁺ oxidising and regenerating organisms to simulated OA conditions, including the implications for [N₂O]. Multivariate analysis was undertaken which considered the complete bioassay data set of measured variables describing changes in N-regeneration rate, [N₂O] and the biogeochemical composition of seawater. While anticipating biogeochemical differences between locations, we aimed to test the hypothesis that the underlying mechanism through which pelagic N-regeneration responded to simulated OA conditions was independent of location. Our objective was to develop a mechanistic understanding of how NH₄⁺ regeneration, NH₄⁺ oxidation and N₂O production responded to OA. Results indicated that N-regeneration process responses to OA treatments were location specific; no mechanistic understanding of how N-regeneration processes respond to OA in the surface ocean of the NW European shelf sea could be developed.

The analysis of large-scale turbulence characteristics in the Indonesian seas derived from a regional model based on the Princeton Ocean Model

Turbulence characteristics in the Indonesian seas on the horizontal scale of order of 100 km were calculated with a regional model of the Indonesian seas circulation in the area based on the Princeton Ocean Model (POM). As is well known, the POM incorporates the Mellor–Yamada turbulence closure scheme. The calculated characteristics are: twice the turbulence kinetic energy per unit mass, <i>q</i>²; the turbulence master scale, &ell;; mixing coefficients of momentum, <i>K</i>_M; and temperature and salinity, <i>K</i>_H; etc. The analyzed turbulence has been generated essentially by the shear of large-scale ocean currents and by the large-scale wind turbulence. We focused on the analysis of turbulence around important topographic features, such as the Lifamatola Sill, the North Sangihe Ridge, the Dewakang Sill, and the North and South Halmahera Sea Sills. In general, the structure of turbulence characteristics in these regions turned out to be similar. For this reason, we have carried out a detailed analysis of the Lifamatola Sill region because dynamically this region is very important and some estimates of mixing coefficients in this area are available. <br><br> Briefly, the main results are as follows. The distribution of <i>q</i>² is quite adequately reproduced by the model. To the north of the Lifamatola Sill (in the Maluku Sea) and to the south of the Sill (in the Seram Sea), large values of <i>q</i>² occur in the deep layer extending several hundred meters above the bottom. The observed increase of <i>q</i>² near the very bottom is probably due to the increase of velocity shear and the corresponding shear production of <i>q</i>² very close to the bottom. The turbulence master scale, &ell;, was found to be constant in the main depth of the ocean, while &ell; rapidly decreases close to the bottom, as one would expect. However, in deep profiles away from the sill, the effect of topography results in the &ell; structure being unreasonably complicated as one moves towards the bottom. Values of 15 to 20 × 10^&minus;4 m² s^-1 were obtained for <i>K</i>_M and <i>K</i>_H in deep water in the vicinity of the Lifamatola Sill. These estimates agree well with basin-scale averaged values of 13.3 × 10^&minus;4 m² s^-1 found diagnostically for <i>K</i>_H in the deep Banda and Seram Seas (Gordon et al., 2003) and a value of 9.0 × 10^&minus;4 m² s^-1 found diagnostically for <i>K</i>_H for the deep Banda Sea system (van Aken et al., 1988). The somewhat higher simulated values can be explained by the presence of steep topography around the sill.

Determining the regional potential for a grass biomethane industry

Grass biogas/biomethane has been put forward as a renewable energy solution and it has been shown to perform well in terms of energy balance, greenhouse gas emissions and policy constraints. Biofuel and energy crop solutions are country-specific and grass biomethane has strong potential in countries with temperate climates and a high proportion of grassland, such as Ireland. For a grass biomethane industry to develop in a country, suitable regions (i.e. those with the highest potential) must be identified. In this paper, factors specifically related to the assessment of the potential of a grass biogas/biomethane industry are identified and analysed. The potential for grass biogas and grass biomethane is determined on a county-by-county basis using multi-criteria decision analysis. Values are assigned to each county and ratings and weightings applied to determine the overall county potential. The potential for grass biomethane with co-digestion of slaughter waste (belly grass) is also determined. The county with the highest potential (Limerick) is analysed in detail and is shown to have ready potential for production of gaseous biofuel to meet either 50% of the vehicle fleet or 130% of the domestic natural gas demand, through 25 facilities at a scale of ca. 30ktyr of feedstock. The assessment factors developed in this paper can be used in other resource studies into grass biomethane or other energy crops. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

Patterns of synchrony in natterjack toad breeding activity and reproductive success at local and regional scales

Empirical studies of the spatiotemporal dynamics of populations are required to better understand natural fluctuations in abundance and reproductive success, and to better target conservation and monitoring programmes. In particular, spatial synchrony in amphibian populations remains little studied. We used data from a comprehensive three year study of natterjack toad Bufo calamita populations breeding at 36 ponds to assess whether there was spatial synchrony in the toad breeding activity (start and length of breeding season, total number of egg strings) and reproductive success (premetamorphic survival and production of metamorphs). We defined a novel approach to assess the importance of short-term synchrony at both local and regional scales. The approach employs similarity indices and quantifies the interaction between the temporal and spatial components of populations using mixed effects models. There was no synchrony in the toad breeding activity and reproductive success at the local scale, suggesting that populations function as individual clusters independent of each other. Regional synchrony was apparent in the commencement and duration of the breeding season and in the number of egg strings laid (indicative of female population size). Regional synchrony in both rainfall and temperature are likely to explain the patterns observed (e.g. Moran effect). There was no evidence supporting regional synchrony in reproductive success, most likely due to spatial variability in the environmental conditions at the breeding ponds, and to differences in local population fitness (e.g. fecundity). The small scale asynchronous dynamics and regional synchronous dynamics in the number of breeding females indicate that it is best to monitor several populations within a subset of regions. Importantly, variations in the toad breeding activity and reproductive success are not synchronous, and it is thus important to consider them both when assessing the conservation status of pond-breeding amphibians. © 2012 The Authors. Ecography © 2012 Nordic Society Oikos.

Regional integration of biogas – developing an intersectoral research action plan for Northern Ireland

Bioenergy is a key component of the European Union long term energy strategy across all sectors, with a target contribution of up to 14% of the energy mix by 2020. It is estimated that there is the potential for 1TWh of primary energy from biogas per million persons in Europe, derived from agricultural by-products and waste. With an agricultural sector that accounts for 75% of land area and a large number of advanced engineering firms, Northern Ireland is a region with considerable potential for an integrated biogas industry. Northern Ireland is also heavily reliant on imported fossil fuels. Despite this, the industry is underdeveloped and there is a need for a collaborative approach from research, business and policy-makers across all sectors to optimise Northern Ireland’s abundant natural resources. ‘Developing Opportunities in Bio-Energy’ (i.e. Do Bioenergy) is a recently completed project that involved both academic and specialist industrial partners. The aim was to develop a biogas research action plan for 2020 to define priorities for intersectoral regional development, co-operation and knowledge transfer in the field of production and use of biogas. Consultations were held with regional stakeholders and working groups were established to compile supporting data, decide key objectives and implementation activities. Within the context of this study it was found that biogas from feedstocks including grass, agricultural slurry, household and industrial waste have the potential to contribute from 2.5% to 11% of Northern Ireland’s total energy consumption. The economics of on-farm production were assessed, along with potential markets and alternative uses for biogas in sectors such as transport, heat and electricity. Arising from this baseline data, a Do Bioenergy was developed. The plan sets out a strategic research agenda, and details priorities and targets for 2020. The challenge for Northern Ireland is how best to utilise the biogas – as electricity, heat or vehicle fuel and in what proportions. The research areas identified were: development of small scale solutions for biogas production and use; solutions for improved nutrient management; knowledge supporting and developing the integration of biogas into the rural economy; and future crops and bio-based products. The human resources and costs for the implementation were estimated as 80 person-years and £25 million respectively. It is also clear that the development of a robust bio-gas sector requires some reform of the regulatory regime, including a planning policy framework and a need to address social acceptance issues. The Action Plan was developed from a regional perspective but the results may be applicable to other regions in Europe and elsewhere. This paper presents the methodology, results and analysis, and discussion and key findings of the Do Bioenergy report for Northern Ireland.

Landslide susceptibility evaluation and validation at a regional scale

Tese de doutoramento, Geografia (Geografia Física), Universidade de Lisboa, Instituto de Geografia e Ordenamento do Território, 2014

Reforms, incentives, welfare and productivity growth in Chinese wheat production

Following the 1978 rural reform, a series of agricultural reforms were introduced in China with an aim to create incentives for the farmers to produce more. However, the nineties’ reforms towards liberalization eventually resulted in a huge drop in agricultural production, which apparently motivated the grain self-sufficiency program in 1998. For a dataset that covers wheat production during these reforms, we examine how and to what extent these reforms affected the Total Factor Productivity (TFP) and the welfare of wheat farmers in China, both at the national and at the regional level. We find that although the nineties' price reforms led to a relatively faster growth of the incentivized TFP of wheat production, they failed to improve profits vis a vis welfare for the farmers. A series of weather shocks in the early nineties resulted in a scarcity of cultivable land and a shortage of agricultural labour, which eventually led to a sharp increase in their relative prices. The introduction of grain self-sufficiency program stabilized these agricultural prices but destroyed the growth in TFP for most regions. However, this reform resulted in some improvement in farmers’ welfare. Wheat farmers in China therefore experienced a trade off between productivity and welfare; competition boosted their productivity and regulation improved their welfare. Not only these findings add a completely new set of results to the existing literature, they can also form a strong basis for future agricultural reforms in China.