DNA human identification for the family rights: one year of agreement between UNESP/laboratory of paternity and public defender service in São Paulo State

The universities have realized the importance of extending their knowledge to the population through the provision of services. Thus, this paper presents the data obtained in an agreement between UNESP/Laboratory of Paternity and Public Defender Service in São Paulo State to make DNA paternity tests.

Métodos de previsão auto-regressivo aplicado a uma série de volume de produção de caminhões

The national truck fleet has expanded strongly in recent decades. However, due to fluctuations in the demand that the market is exposed, it needed up making more effective strategic decisions of automakers. These decisions are made after an evaluation of guaranteed sales forecasts. This work aims to generate an annual forecast of truck production by Box and Jenkins methodology. They used annual data for referring forecast modeling from the year 1957 to 2014, which were obtained by the National Association of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (Anfavea). The model used was Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and can choose the best model for the series under study, and the ARIMA (2,1,3) as representative for conducting truck production forecast

Model complexity affects transient population dynamics following a dispersal event: A case study with pea aphids

Stage-structured population models predict transient population dynamics if the population deviates from the stable stage distribution. Ecologists’ interest in transient dynamics is growing because populations regularly deviate from the stable stage distribution, which can lead to transient dynamics that differ significantly from the stable stage dynamics. Because the structure of a population matrix (i.e., the number of life-history stages) can influence the predicted scale of the deviation, we explored the effect of matrix size on predicted transient dynamics and the resulting amplification of population size. First, we experimentally measured the transition rates between the different life-history stages and the adult fecundity and survival of the aphid, Acythosiphon pisum. Second, we used these data to parameterize models with different numbers of stages. Third, we compared model predictions with empirically measured transient population growth following the introduction of a single adult aphid. We find that the models with the largest number of life-history stages predicted the largest transient population growth rates, but in all models there was a considerable discrepancy between predicted and empirically measured transient peaks and a dramatic underestimation of final population sizes. For instance, the mean population size after 20 days was 2394 aphids compared to the highest predicted population size of 531 aphids; the predicted asymptotic growth rate (λmax) was consistent with the experiments. Possible explanations for this discrepancy are discussed. Includes 4 supplemental files.

Métodos de previsão auto-regressivo aplicado a uma série de volume de produção de caminhões

The national truck fleet has expanded strongly in recent decades. However, due to fluctuations in the demand that the market is exposed, it needed up making more effective strategic decisions of automakers. These decisions are made after an evaluation of guaranteed sales forecasts. This work aims to generate an annual forecast of truck production by Box and Jenkins methodology. They used annual data for referring forecast modeling from the year 1957 to 2014, which were obtained by the National Association of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (Anfavea). The model used was Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and can choose the best model for the series under study, and the ARIMA (2,1,3) as representative for conducting truck production forecast

Population structure and sexual maturity of the calico box crab Hepatus epheliticus Linnaeus (Brachyura, Hepatidae) from Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico

The calico box crab Hepatus epheliticus is an abundant species from shallow and continental shelf waters of the Atlantic coast of USA and Mexico. Information about population structure and sexual maturity is absent, even though this crab is caught to be used as bait for the octopus fishery in the Campeche Bank, Mexico. In order to achieve such information, a total of 768 individuals were collected from January to March 2010 through baited traps installed in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico. Our results showed that sex ratio is biased towards more males than females (1:0.55), contradicting to that reported in other brachyuran crabs. The absence of ovigerous females suggests that they did not enter into the traps during embryogenesis. Males reached a larger maximum size than females (64.0 +/- 6.15 and 58.4 +/- 5.60 mm carapace width, respectively). The general scheme of growth being positive allometric throughout ontogeny of both sexes. Males presented a transition phase from juveniles to adult corresponding to the puberty moult. The estimation of the onset of functional sexual maturity revealed a steady situation for the population, with 21.5 and 13.8% of males and females, respectively, morphologically immature at the time of catch. This study constitutes the first report on population structure and sexual maturity in a population of the calico box crab H. epheliticus.

The Provision and Use of Mental Health Services in Nursing Homes: Results from the National Medical Expenditure Survey

Data from the Institutional Population Component of the National Medical Expenditure Survey were used to provide national estimates of annual mental health service provision and use in nursing homes. In addition, the relationship between service provision and setting characteristics such as ownership, size, Medicaid certification, and chain status was examined. Although more than three quarters of residents with a mental disorder resided at a nursing home that provided counseling services, fewer than one fifth actually received any mental health services within the year.

Entornos de ayuda a la vida independiente de personas mayores sobre servicios de redes de próxima generación

El progresivo envejecimiento de la población está produciendo una elevada demanda de servicios socio‐asistenciales por parte de las personas mayores para mantener su vida independiente y el consiguiente “envejecimiento activo”. La iniciativa Ambient Assisted Living (AAL) promueve el “envejecimiento activo” a través de las Tecnologías de la Información y las Comunicaciones (TIC) y es en ella donde se centrará el trabajo de esta tesis doctoral. Una característica fundamental de los servicios AAL es su adaptación y personalización a las características y preferencias del usuario y su contexto. Así, el paradigma “context awareness” presenta una gran relevancia en la provisión de servicios AAL y en el soporte a la vida independiente de las personas mayores. Concretamente, la utilización de ontologías permite crear modelos de usuarios y contexto que pueden ser utilizadas para los mecanismos de razonamiento incluidos en los servicios context‐aware. Por otra parte, los usuarios actualmente precisan acceder a un conjunto de servicios desde cualquier red de acceso y desde cualquier dispositivo. Las redes de próxima generación (Next Generation Networks‐NGN) lo hacen posible pues ofrecen una convergencia dispositivo‐red‐servicio. La tecnología IMS (IP Multimedia Subsystem) es una arquitectura que implementa el paradigma NGN y ofrece una serie de servicios de red genéricos llamados servicios habilitadores o enablers que pueden ser reutilizados en cualquier aplicación, soportando mecanismos de interoperabilidad entre aplicaciones y permitiendo un desarrollo robusto, rápido y sencillo. Además, los servicios enablers permiten mecanismos de gestión de la información de usuario para realizar una provisión adaptada del servicio en función de la información del estado del usuario. El objetivo de esta tesis doctoral se centra en establecer un marco de convergencia entre estos dos campos diseñando y desarrollando un conjunto de servicios enablers soportados en una arquitectura IMS implementada para soportar la provisión de aplicaciones AAL bajo el paradigma context‐awareness y la triple convergencia reddispositivo‐ servicio cubriendo así las necesidades y requisitos de las personas mayores. Entre las aportaciones de la presente tesis se destaca la realización de un modelo de plataforma servicios AAL, denominado Residencia Virtual Asistiva, para su provisión en el domicilio de la persona mayor, así como la propuesta de implementación de sus servicios a través de servicios enablers. Por otra parte se define una ontología destinada a modelar servicios AAL así como sus usuarios (personas mayores) para lograr una provisión personalizada y adaptada de servicios AAL. Esta ontología se ha implementado a través del servicio de presencia de la arquitectura IMS para poder crear perfiles de usuario y así poder realizar dicha provisión personalizada. Además, se desarrolla una aplicación de teleconsulta, como ejemplo de servicio AAL, que utiliza una serie de servicios enablers desarrollados para ofrecer funcionalidades avanzadas a la aplicación. Bajo el paradigma contex‐awareness se ha desarrollado y evaluado técnicamente un servicio enabler para ofrecer soporte a la movilidad y a la independencia de las personas mayores con deterioro cognitivo que sufren episodios de desorientación espacial. ABSTRACT The progressive ageing of the population is making elderly people demand sociohealthcare services to maintain an independent living and therefore an “active ageing”. The initiative Ambient Assisted Living (AAL), on which the current PhD thesis is focused, promotes the “active ageing” by means of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT). Essential features of AAL services are the adaptation and personalization to the user’s characteristics and preferences as well as user’s context. Thus, the “context‐awareness” paradigm implies a great importance in the AAL service provision and the elderly independent living support. In particular, the usage of ontologies allows creating user and contexts models to be employed in the reasoning mechanism of context‐aware services. On the other hand, users currently require accessing to a set of services from anywhere and any device. Next‐Generation Networks (NGN) support this need by offering a service‐network‐device convergence. The IP Multimedia Subsystem (IMS) technology is an architecture that implements the NGN paradigm and offers a generic network services know as service enabler which can be reused by any application supporting application interoperability mechanism as well as allowing a simple, fast and robust application development. Furthermore, the service enablers offer user’s information management procedures to achieve and adapt service provision considering the user’s status. The objective of this PhD thesis is focused on establishing a convergence framework between these two previous fields by designing and developing a group of service enablers that will be deployed in an IMS architecture. The enablers developed will support the AAL applications provision from the context‐awareness paradigm and service‐network‐device convergence in order to cover the elderly people’s requirements and needs. Among the contributions achieved in this PhD thesis, the definition of an AAL platform service model, named as “Assited Virtual Nursing Home”, for being deployed in the older adult home is emphasised. In addition, a proposal of service enablers to support the AAL service defined in the model is made. Otherwise, an ontology is defined to model AAL services as well as their users with the aim at achieve a personalized and adapted AAL service. This ontology has been implemented by means of the IMS service presence in order to create users profiles to be used in the personalized AAL services. As an example of AAL service, a teleconsulting application has been developed to employ a group of service enablers developed using a set of advanced functionalities. Considering the context‐paradigm, a service enabler has been developed and technologically evaluated to support the mobility and independence of elderly people with mild cognitive impairment who suffers spatial disorientation episodes.

Propuesta de un sistema para detección precoz de trastornos del lenguaje en niños de 0 a 6 años

Las Tecnologías de la Información y las Comunicaciones han propiciado avances en el contexto de la salud tanto en la gestión efectiva de información socio‐sanitaria de forma electrónica, como en la provisión de servicios de e‐salud y telemedicina. Los antecedentes de investigación publicados en esta área corroboran este hecho presentando las mejoras experimentadas en la atención de la población y en la provisión de servicios sanitarios. La atención temprana, cuyos principios científicos se fundamentan en los campos de la pediatría, neurología, psicología, psiquiatría, pedagogía, fisiatría y lingüística, entre otros, tiene como finalidad ofrecer a los niños con déficit o con riesgo de padecerlos un conjunto de acciones optimizadoras y compensadoras, que faciliten su adecuada maduración en todos los ámbitos y que les permita alcanzar el máximo nivel de desarrollo personal y de integración social. La detección de posibles alteraciones en el desarrollo infantil es un aspecto clave de la atención temprana en la medida en que puede posibilitar la puesta en marcha de diversos mecanismos de actuación disponibles en las entidades implicadas, valiosos para la calidad de vida de la persona. Cuanto antes se realice la detección, existen mayores garantías de prevenir patologías añadidas, lograr mejoras funcionales y posibilitar un ajuste más adaptativo entre el niño y su entorno. El objetivo de la investigación presentada en esta tesis doctoral es analizar, diseñar, verificar y validar un sistema de información abierto, basado en conocimiento, que facilite efectivamente a los profesionales que trabajan con la población infantil entre 0 y 6 años la detección precoz de posibles trastornos del lenguaje. Desde el punto de vista metodológico, la Ingeniería del Conocimiento ofrece un marco conceptual sólido que permite desarrollar y validar Sistemas de Ayuda a la Toma de Decisiones distribuidos y escalables, capaces de ayudar al pediatra de Atención Primaria y al educador infantil en la detección precoz de posibles trastornos del lenguaje en niños. La evaluación del sistema se ha realizado de forma incremental mediante el diseño y validación de pruebas de campo experimentales consistentes en la evaluación de niños en dos escenarios distintos: la escuela infantil y el centro de atención temprana. Los experimentos realizados en poblaciones distintas con alrededor de 344 niños durante 2 años, han permitido contrastar la buena adecuación del sistema propuesto a las necesidades de detección de los profesionales que trabajan con niños entre 0 y 6 años. La tesis resultante ha permitido caracterizar el uso del sistema en entornos reales, conocer la aceptación entre los usuarios y su impacto en la provisión de un servicio de atención temprana como el descrito para el correcto seguimiento del desarrollo del lenguaje en los niños, además de proponer un nuevo modelo de atención y evaluación cooperativa que permita incrementar el conocimiento experimental existente al respecto. ABSTRACT The Information and Communication Technology have led to advances in the context of health both in the effective management of socio‐health information electronically, and in the provision of e‐health and telemedicine. The history of research published in this area confirm this fact by presenting the improvements in the care of the population and the provision of health services. Early attention, whose scientific principles are based on the fields of pediatrics, neurology, psychology, psychiatry, pedagogy, physical medicine and linguistics, among others, aims to provide children with deficits or risk of suffering a set of enhancer actions, which facilitate adequate maturation in all areas and allow them to achieve the highest level of personal development and social integration. The detection of possible changes in child development is a key aspect of early intervention to the extent that it can enable the implementation of different mechanisms of action available to the entities involved, valuable to the quality of life of the person. The earlier the detection is made, there are more guarantees added to prevent diseases, achieving functional improvements and enable a more adaptive fit between the child and his environment. The aim of the research presented is to analyze, design, verify and validate an open information system, based on knowledge, which effectively provide professionals working with the child population between 0 and 6 years, in processes of early detection of language disorders. From the methodological point of view, Knowledge Engineering provides a solid conceptual framework to develop and validate a distributed and scalable decision support systems aim to assist pediatricians and language therapists at early identification and referral of language disorder in childhood. The system evaluation was performed incrementally with the design and validation of consistent experimental field tests in the assessment of children in two different scenarios: the nursery and early intervention center. Experiments in different populations with about 344 children over 2 years, allowed to testing the adequacy of the proposed good detection needs of professionals working with children between 0 and 6 years old system. The resulting thesis has allowed to formalizing the system at real environments and to identifying the acceptance by users as well as its impact on the provision of an early intervention service, such as the one described for the proper monitoring of language development in children. In addition, it proposes a new model of care and cooperative evaluation that lets to increase the existing experimental knowledge about it.

Population of Peru; estimates and projections: 1962-2002,

"Prepared under a participating agency service agreement with the Office of Population, Agency for International Development."

Fixing the system? The experience of service users of the quasi-market in disability services in Australia

A qualitative study involving semi-structured interviews with 31 people with disabilities and 32 carers in the state of Queensland, Australia, found that their experience of supportive service delivery had not improved despite reforms of the service delivery system driven by a version of the quasi-market model. Instead of delivering increased consumer choice and improved efficiency in service delivery, service users experienced inadequate service supply, service cutbacks, and an increased emphasis on cost subsidisation and assessment processes. Additionally, few consumers felt that individualised funding arrangements had personally delivered the benefits which the quasi-market model and associated policy paradigm had indicated that they should receive. For many consumers, the notion of consumer 'choice' around service provision was fictitious and they felt that any efficiency gains were at the agency level, largely at the consumers' cost. It is concluded that there appears to be no particular benefit to service users of quasi-market reforms, particularly in policy contexts where service delivery systems are historically under-funded.

Customised birthweight: Coefficients for an Australian population and validation of the model

Background: Published birthweight references in Australia do not fully take into account constitutional factors that influence birthweight and therefore may not provide an accurate reference to identify the infant with abnormal growth. Furthermore, studies in other regions that have derived adjusted (customised) birthweight references have applied untested assumptions in the statistical modelling. Aims: To validate the customised birthweight model and to produce a reference set of coefficients for estimating a customised birthweight that may be useful for maternity care in Australia and for future research. Methods: De-identified data were extracted from the clinical database for all births at the Mater Mother's Hospital, Brisbane, Australia, between January 1997 and June 2005. Births with missing data for the variables under study were excluded. In addition the following were excluded: multiple pregnancies, births less than 37 completed week's gestation, stillbirths, and major congenital abnormalities. Multivariate analysis was undertaken. A double cross-validation procedure was used to validate the model. Results: The study of 42 206 births demonstrated that, for statistical purposes, birthweight is normally distributed. Coefficients for the derivation of customised birthweight in an Australian population were developed and the statistical model is demonstrably robust. Conclusions: This study provides empirical data as to the robustness of the model to determine customised birthweight. Further research is required to define where normal physiology ends and pathology begins, and which segments of the population should be included in the construction of a customised birthweight standard.

The effects of attribute quality information and sources of information on consumers' perceptions and behavior: A model of Pre-purchase Information Utilization in Service Physical Environments

The search-experience-credence framework from economics of information, the human-environment relations models from environmental psychology, and the consumer evaluation process from services marketing provide a conceptual basis for testing the model of "Pre-purchase Information Utilization in Service Physical Environments." The model addresses the effects of informational signs, as a dimension of the service physical environment, on consumers' perceptions (perceived veracity and perceived performance risk), emotions (pleasure) and behavior (willingness to buy). The informational signs provide attribute quality information (search and experience) through non-personal sources of information (simulated word-of-mouth and non-personal advocate sources).^ This dissertation examines: (1) the hypothesized relationships addressed in the model of "Pre-purchase Information Utilization in Service Physical Environments" among informational signs, perceived veracity, perceived performance risk, pleasure, and willingness to buy, and (2) the effects of attribute quality information and sources of information on consumers' perceived veracity and perceived performance risk.^ This research is the first in-depth study about the role and effects of information in service physical environments. Using a 2 x 2 between subjects experimental research procedure, undergraduate students were exposed to the informational signs in a simulated service physical environment. The service physical environments were simulated through color photographic slides.^ The results of the study suggest that: (1) the relationship between informational signs and willingness to buy is mediated by perceived veracity, perceived performance risk and pleasure, (2) experience attribute information shows higher perceived veracity and lower perceived performance risk when compared to search attribute information, and (3) information provided through simulated word-of-mouth shows higher perceived veracity and lower perceived performance risk when compared to information provided through non-personal advocate sources. ^

Regional growth, structural change, and natural disaster

Hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, and other serious natural hazards have been attributed with causing changes in regional economic growth, income, employment, and wealth. Natural disasters are said to cause; (1) an acceleration of existing economic trends; (2) an expansion of employment and income, due to recovery operations (the so-called silver lining); and (3) an alteration in the structure of regional economic activity due to changes in "intra" and "inter" regional trading patterns, and technological change.^ Theoretical and stylized disaster simulations (Cochrane 1975; Haas, Cochrane, and Kates 1977; Petak et al. 1982; Ellson et al. 1983, 1984; Boisvert 1992; Brookshire and McKee 1992) point towards a wide scope of possible negative and long lasting impacts upon economic activity and structure. This work examines the consequences of Hurricane Andrew on Dade County's economy. Following the work of Ellson et al. (1984), Guimaraes et al. (1993), and West and Lenze (1993; 1994), a regional econometric forecasting model (DCEFM) using a framework of "with" and "without" the hurricane is constructed and utilized to assess Hurricane Andrew's impact on the structure and level of economic activity in Dade County, Florida.^ The results of the simulation exercises show that the direct economic impact associated with Hurricane Andrew on Dade County is of short duration, and of isolated sectoral impact, with impact generally limited to construction, TCP (transportation, communications, and public utilities), and agricultural sectors. Regional growth, and changes in income and employment reacted directly to, and within the range and direction set by national economic activity. The simulations also lead to the conclusion that areal extent, infrastructure, and sector specific damages or impacts, as opposed to monetary losses, are the primary determinants of a disaster's effects upon employment, income, growth, and economic structure. ^

Correlates of voluntary HIV testing and counseling among middle aged and older Latinas

This study identifies and describes HIV Voluntary Counseling and Testing (VCT) of middle aged and older Latinas. The rate of new cases of HIV in people age 45 and older is rapidly increasing, with a 40.6% increase in the numbers of older Latinas infected with HIV between 1998 and 2002. Despite this increase, there is paucity of research on this population. This research seeks to address the gap through a secondary data analysis of Latina women. The aim of this study is twofold: (1) Develop and empirically test a multivariate model of VCT utilization for middle aged and older Latinas; (2) To test how the three individual components of the Andersen Behavioral Model impact VCT for middle aged and older Latinas. The study is organized around the three major domains of the Andersen Behavioral Model of service use that include: (a) predisposing factors; (b) enabling characteristics and (c) need. Logistic regression using structural equation modeling techniques were used to test multivariate relationships of variables on VCT for a sample of 135 middle age and older Latinas residing in Miami-Dade County, Florida. Over 60% of participants had been tested for HIV. Provider endorsement was found to he the strongest predictor of VCT (odds ration [OR] 6.38), followed by having a clinic as a regular source of healthcare (OR=3.88). Significant negative associations with VCT included self rated health status (OR=.592); Age (OR=.927); Spanish proficiency (OR=.927); number of sexual partners (OR=.613) and consumption of alcohol during sexual activity (.549). As this line of inquiry provides a critical glimpse into the VCT of older Latinas, recommendations for enhanced service provision and research will he offered.