Poisson, Poisson-gamma and zero-inflated regression models of motor vehicle crashes: balancing statistical fit and theory

There has been considerable research conducted over the last 20 years focused on predicting motor vehicle crashes on transportation facilities. The range of statistical models commonly applied includes binomial, Poisson, Poisson-gamma (or negative binomial), zero-inflated Poisson and negative binomial models (ZIP and ZINB), and multinomial probability models. Given the range of possible modeling approaches and the host of assumptions with each modeling approach, making an intelligent choice for modeling motor vehicle crash data is difficult. There is little discussion in the literature comparing different statistical modeling approaches, identifying which statistical models are most appropriate for modeling crash data, and providing a strong justification from basic crash principles. In the recent literature, it has been suggested that the motor vehicle crash process can successfully be modeled by assuming a dual-state data-generating process, which implies that entities (e.g., intersections, road segments, pedestrian crossings, etc.) exist in one of two states—perfectly safe and unsafe. As a result, the ZIP and ZINB are two models that have been applied to account for the preponderance of “excess” zeros frequently observed in crash count data. The objective of this study is to provide defensible guidance on how to appropriate model crash data. We first examine the motor vehicle crash process using theoretical principles and a basic understanding of the crash process. It is shown that the fundamental crash process follows a Bernoulli trial with unequal probability of independent events, also known as Poisson trials. We examine the evolution of statistical models as they apply to the motor vehicle crash process, and indicate how well they statistically approximate the crash process. We also present the theory behind dual-state process count models, and note why they have become popular for modeling crash data. A simulation experiment is then conducted to demonstrate how crash data give rise to “excess” zeros frequently observed in crash data. It is shown that the Poisson and other mixed probabilistic structures are approximations assumed for modeling the motor vehicle crash process. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that under certain (fairly common) circumstances excess zeros are observed—and that these circumstances arise from low exposure and/or inappropriate selection of time/space scales and not an underlying dual state process. In conclusion, carefully selecting the time/space scales for analysis, including an improved set of explanatory variables and/or unobserved heterogeneity effects in count regression models, or applying small-area statistical methods (observations with low exposure) represent the most defensible modeling approaches for datasets with a preponderance of zeros

Bayesian multinomial logit: Theory and route choice example

Statisticians along with other scientists have made significant computational advances that enable the estimation of formerly complex statistical models. The Bayesian inference framework combined with Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation methods such as the Gibbs sampler enable the estimation of discrete choice models such as the multinomial logit (MNL) model. MNL models are frequently applied in transportation research to model choice outcomes such as mode, destination, or route choices or to model categorical outcomes such as crash outcomes. Recent developments allow for the modification of the potentially limiting assumptions of MNL such as the independence from irrelevant alternatives (IIA) property. However, relatively little transportation-related research has focused on Bayesian MNL models, the tractability of which is of great value to researchers and practitioners alike. This paper addresses MNL model specification issues in the Bayesian framework, such as the value of including prior information on parameters, allowing for nonlinear covariate effects, and extensions to random parameter models, so changing the usual limiting IIA assumption. This paper also provides an example that demonstrates, using route-choice data, the considerable potential of the Bayesian MNL approach with many transportation applications. This paper then concludes with a discussion of the pros and cons of this Bayesian approach and identifies when its application is worthwhile

Political theory and theoretical physics

This paper argues, somewhat along a Simmelian line, that political theory may produce practical and universal theories like those developed in theoretical physics. The reasoning behind this paper is to show that the theory of ‘basic democracy’ may be true by way of comparing it to Einstein’s Special Relativity – specifically concerning the parameters of symmetry, unification, simplicity, and utility. These parameters are what make a theory in physics as meeting them not only fits with current knowledge, but also produces paths towards testing (application). As the theory of ‘basic democracy’ may meet these same parameters, it could settle the debate concerning the definition of democracy. This will be argued firstly by discussing what the theory of ‘basic democracy’ is and why it differs from previous work; secondly by explaining the parameters chosen (as in why these and not others confirm or scuttle theories); and thirdly by comparing how Special Relativity and the theory of ‘basic democracy’ may match the parameters.

Rayleigh theory of ultrasound scattering applied to liquid-filled contrast nanoparticles

We present a novel modified theory based upon Rayleigh scattering of ultrasound from composite nanoparticles with a liquid core and solid shell. We derive closed form solutions to the scattering cross-section and have applied this model to an ultrasound contrast agent consisting of a liquid-filled core (perfluorooctyl bromide, PFOB) encapsulated by a polymer shell (poly-caprolactone, PCL). Sensitivity analysis was performed to predict the dependence of the scattering cross-section upon material and dimensional parameters. A rapid increase in the scattering cross-section was achieved by increasing the compressibility of the core, validating the incorporation of high compressibility PFOB; the compressibility of the shell had little impact on the overall scattering cross-section although a more compressible shell is desirable. Changes in the density of the shell and the core result in predicted local minima in the scattering cross-section, approximately corresponding to the PFOB-PCL contrast agent considered; hence, incorporation of a lower shell density could potentially significantly improve the scattering cross-section. A 50% reduction in shell thickness relative to external radius increased the predicted scattering cross-section by 50%. Although it has often been considered that the shell has a negative effect on the echogeneity due to its low compressibility, we have shown that it can potentially play an important role in the echogeneity of the contrast agent. The challenge for the future is to identify suitable shell and core materials that meet the predicted characteristics in order to achieve optimal echogenity.

Kidlit from a graduate student's perspective : a problem in theory?

Plenary Session: "New Voices in Children's Literature"

A three year outcome evaluation of a theory based drink driving education program

This study reports on the impact of a "drink driving education program" taught to grade ten high school students. The program which involves twelve lessons uses strategies based on the Ajzen and Madden theory of planned behavior. Students were trained to use alternatives to drink driving and passenger behaviors. One thousand seven hundred and seventy-four students who had been taught the program in randomly assigned control and intervention schools were followed up three years later. There had been a major reduction in drink driving behaviors in both intervention and control students. In addition to this cohort change there was a trend toward reduced drink driving in the intervention group and a significant reduction in passenger behavior in this group. Readiness to use alternatives suggested that the major impact of the program was on students who were experimenting with the behavior at the time the program was taught. The program seems to have optimized concurrent social attitude and behavior change.

Sex, drugs, and deterrence : applying Stafford and Warr’s reconceptualization of deterrence theory to drug driving across the genders

A consistent finding in the literature is that males report greater usage of drugs and subsequently greater amounts of drug driving. Research also suggests that vicarious influences may be more pertinent to males than to females. Utilising Stafford and Warr’s (1993) reconceptualization of deterrence theory, this study sought to determine if the relative deterrent impact of zero-tolerance drug driving laws is disparate between genders. A sample of motorists’ (N = 899) completed a self-report questionnaire assessing participants frequency of drug driving and personal and vicarious experiences with punishment and punishment avoidance. Results show that males were significantly more likely to report future intentions of drug driving. Additionally, vicarious experiences of punishment avoidance was a more influential predictor of future drug driving instances for males with personal experiences of punishment avoidance a more influential predictor for females. These findings can inform gender sensitive media campaigns and interventions for convicted drug drivers.

The applicability of Bowen's family theory to the Malay population

The changes of economic status in Malaysia have lead to many psychosocial problems especially among the young people. Counselling and psychotherapy have been seen as one of the solutions that are practiced in Western Culture. Most counselling theorists believe that their theory is universal however there is limited research to prove it. This paper will describe an ongoing study conducted in Malaysia about the applicability of one Western counselling Theory, Bowen’s family theory the Differentiation of self levels in the family allow a person to both leave the family’s boundaries in search of uniqueness and continually return to the family in order to further establish a sense of belonging. In addition Bowen believed that this comprised of four measures: Differentiation of Self (DSI), Family Inventory of Live Event (ILE), Depression Anxiety and Stress Scale (DASS) and Connor-Davidson Resilience Scale (CD-RISC). Preliminary findings are discussed and the implication in enhancing the quality of teaching family counselling in universities explored.

Years 2 to 6 students' ability to generalise : models, representations and theory for teaching and learning

Over the last three years, in our Early Algebra Thinking Project, we have been studying Years 3 to 5 students’ ability to generalise in a variety of situations, namely, compensation principles in computation, the balance principle in equivalence and equations, change and inverse change rules with function machines, and pattern rules with growing patterns. In these studies, we have attempted to involve a variety of models and representations and to build students’ abilities to switch between them (in line with the theories of Dreyfus, 1991, and Duval, 1999). The results have shown the negative effect of closure on generalisation in symbolic representations, the predominance of single variance generalisation over covariant generalisation in tabular representations, and the reduced ability to readily identify commonalities and relationships in enactive and iconic representations. This chapter uses the results to explore the interrelation between generalisation and verbal and visual comprehension of context. The studies evidence the importance of understanding and communicating aspects of representational forms which allowed commonalities to be seen across or between representations. Finally the chapter explores the implications of the studies for a theory that describes a growth in integration of models and representations that leads to generalisation.

aa-cell in practice : an approach to musical live coding

Live coding performances provide a context with particular demands and limitations for music making. In this paper we discuss how as the live coding duo aa-cell we have responded to these challenges, and what this experience has revealed about the computational representation of music and approaches to interactive computer music performance. In particular we have identified several effective and efficient processes that underpin our practice including probability, linearity, periodicity, set theory, and recursion and describe how these are applied and combined to build sophisticated musical structures. In addition, we outline aspects of our performance practice that respond to the improvisational, collaborative and communicative requirements of musical live coding.

Predicting the consumption of foods low in saturated fats among people diagnosed with Type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease. The role of planning in the theory of planned behaviour

The present study tested the utility of an extended version of the theory of planned behaviour that included a measure of planning, in the prediction of eating foods low in saturated fats among adults diagnosed with Type 2 diabetes and/or cardiovascular disease. Participants (N = 184) completed questionnaires assessing standard theory of planned behaviour measures (attitude, subjective norm, and perceived behavioural control) and the additional volitional variable of planning in relation to eating foods low in saturated fats. Self-report consumption of foods low insaturated fats was assessed 1 month later. In partial support of the theory of planned behaviour, results indicated that attitude and subjective norm predicted intentions to eat foods low in saturated fats and intentions and perceived behavioural control predicted the consumption of foods low in saturated fats. As an additional variable, planning predicted the consumption of foods low in saturated fats directly and also mediated the intention–behaviour and perceived behavioural control–behaviour relationships, suggesting an important role for planning as a post-intentional construct determining healthy eating choices. Suggestions are offered for interventions designed to improve adherence to healthy eating recommendations for people diagnosed with these chronic conditions with a specific emphasis on the steps and activities that are required to promote a healthier lifestyle.

Tendering theory revisited

This paper discusses the content, origin and development of Tendering Theory as a theory of price determination. It demonstrates how tendering theory determines market prices and how it is different from game and decision theories, and that in the tendering process, with non-cooperative, simultaneous, single sealed bids with individual private valuations, extensive public information, a large number of bidders and a long sequence of tendering occasions, there develops a competitive equilibrium. The development of a competitive equilibrium means that the concept of the tender as the sum of a valuation and a strategy, which is at the core of tendering theory, cannot be supported and that there are serious empirical, theoretical and methodological inconsistencies in the theory.

Empirical basis for adopting a theory-driven approach to preventing alcohol and other drug impairment (AOD) in the workplace

Background: A State-based industry in Australia is in the process of developing a programme to prevent AOD impairment in the workplace. The objective of this study was to determine whether the Theory of Planned Behaviour can help explain the mechanisms by which behaviour change occurs with regard to AOD impairment in the workplace. ---------- Method: A survey of 1165 employees of a State-based industry in Australia was conducted, and a response rate of 98% was achieved. The survey included questions relevant to the Theory of Planned Behaviour: behaviour; behavioural intentions; attitude; perceptions of social pressure; and perceived behavioural control with regard to workplace AOD impairment. ---------- Findings: Less than 3% of participants reported coming to work impaired by AODs. Fewer than 2% of participants reported that they intended to come to work impaired by AODs. The majority of participants (over 80%) reported unfavourable attitudes toward AOD impairment at work. Logistic regression analyses suggest that, consistent with the theory of planned behaviour: attitudes, perceptions of social pressure, and perceived behavioural control with regard to workplace AOD impairment, all predict behavioural intentions (P < .001); and behavioural intentions predict (self-reported) behaviour regarding workplace AOD impairment (P < .001). ---------- Conclusions: The Theory of Planned Behaviour appears to assist with understanding the mechanisms by which behaviour change occurs with regard to AOD impairment in the workplace. An occupational AOD programme which targets those mechanisms for change may improve its impact in preventing workplace AOD impairment.

Optimization problems for controlled mechanical systems : bridging the gap between theory and application

Mechanical control systems have become a part of our everyday life. Systems such as automobiles, robot manipulators, mobile robots, satellites, buildings with active vibration controllers and air conditioning systems, make life easier and safer, as well as help us explore the world we live in and exploit it’s available resources. In this chapter, we examine a specific example of a mechanical control system; the Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV). Our contribution to the advancement of AUV research is in the area of guidance and control. We present innovative techniques to design and implement control strategies that consider the optimization of time and/or energy consumption. Recent advances in robotics, control theory, portable energy sources and automation increase our ability to create more intelligent robots, and allows us to conduct more explorations by use of autonomous vehicles. This facilitates access to higher risk areas, longer time underwater, and more efficient exploration as compared to human occupied vehicles. The use of underwater vehicles is expanding in every area of ocean science. Such vehicles are used by oceanographers, archaeologists, geologists, ocean engineers, and many others. These vehicles are designed to be agile, versatile and robust, and thus, their usage has gone from novelty to necessity for any ocean expedition.

A first extension of geometric control theory to underwater vehicles

This paper serves as a first study on the implementation of control strategies developed using a kinematic reduction onto test bed autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs). The equations of motion are presented in the framework of differential geometry, including external dissipative forces, as a forced affine connection control system. We show that the hydrodynamic drag forces can be included in the affine connection, resulting in an affine connection control system. The definitions of kinematic reduction and decoupling vector field are thus extended from the ideal fluid scenario. Control strategies are computed using this new extension and are reformulated for implementation onto a test-bed AUV. We compare these geometrically computed controls to time and energy optimal controls for the same trajectory which are computed using a previously developed algorithm. Through this comparison we are able to validate our theoretical results based on the experiments conducted using the time and energy efficient strategies.