[11C]Choline PET/CT for targeted salvage lymph node dissection in patients with biochemical recurrence after primary curative therapy for prostate cancer. Preliminary results of a prospective study

INTRODUCTION: In this prospective study we set out to investigate the diagnostic value of [(11)C]choline-PET/CT in patients with suspected lymph node metastases before salvage lymph node dissection. PATIENTS AND METHODS: 15 consecutive patients with rising PSA underwent [(11)C]choline-PET/CT and consecutive open salvage pelvic/retroperitoneal extended lymph node dissection due to uptake of [(11)C]choline in at least 1 lymph node. Mean age was 62.1 (range 53-73). RESULTS: [(11)C]choline-PET/CT results were compared with the histopathology reports and clinical follow-up (mean 13.7 months, range 6-24). Mean time to progression was 23.6 months (range 4-81). [(11)C]choline uptake was observed in nodes along the external and internal and common iliac arteries and in the paraaortic region. A positive histology was reported in 8/15 patients. Only one patient had a PSA nadir of <0.1 ng/ml after salvage surgery. Another patient had stable disease with a PSA of 0.5 ng/ml. Three patients developed bone metastases during follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: This interim analysis indicates that [(11)C]choline-PET/CT may be a useful technique in detection of lymph node metastases when rising PSA occurs after definite prostate cancer therapy. The presented cohort is limited in size, but there is still strong evidence that the patients benefit from [(11)C]choline-PET/CT and consecutive salvage lymph node dissection is rather small.

Solitary small- to medium-sized pleomorphic T-cell nodules of undetermined significance: clinical, histopathological, immunohistochemical and molecular analysis of 26 cases

BACKGROUND: Solitary skin nodules composed of pleomorphic T lymphocytes are often the source of diagnostic problems. OBJECTIVE: To characterize the clinicopathological features, prognosis and optimal treatment modalities of patients with solitary lymphoid nodules of small- to medium-sized pleomorphic T lymphocytes. METHODS: Twenty-six patients were analysed for clinical, histopathological, immunophenotypical, molecular and follow-up data. Results: Lesions were located mainly on the head and neck (n = 16; 61.5%) or trunk (n = 8; 30.8%). Histopathology showed non-epidermotropic nodular or diffuse infiltrates of small- to medium-sized pleomorphic T lymphocytes. Monoclonality was found by PCR in 54.2% of cases (n = 13/24). After a mean follow-up of 79.7 months, a local recurrence could be observed only in 1 patient. CONCLUSIONS: Our patients have a specific cutaneous lymphoproliferative disorder characterized by reproducible clinicopathological features. The incongruity between the indolent clinical course and the worrying histopathological features poses difficulties in classifying these cases unambiguously as benign or malignant. We suggest to describe these lesions as 'solitary small- to medium-sized pleomorphic T-cell nodules of undetermined significance'. Irrespective of the name given to these equivocal cutaneous lymphoid proliferations, follow-up data support a non-aggressive therapeutic strategy.

Perception of atrial fibrillation before and after radiofrequency catheter ablation: relevance of asymptomatic arrhythmia recurrence.

BACKGROUND The objective of this study was to assess the incidence and impact of asymptomatic arrhythmia in patients with highly symptomatic atrial fibrillation (AF) who qualified for radiofrequency (RF) catheter ablation. METHODS AND RESULTS In this prospective study, 114 patients with at least 3 documented AF episodes together with corresponding symptoms and an ineffective trial of at least 1 antiarrhythmic drug were selected for RF ablation. With the use of CARTO, circumferential lesions around the pulmonary veins and linear lesions at the roof of the left atrium and along the left atrial isthmus were placed. A continuous, 7-day, Holter session was recorded before ablation, right after ablation, and after 3, 6, and 12 months of follow-up. During each 7-day Holter monitoring, the patients recorded quality and duration of any complaints by using a detailed symptom log. More than 70,000 hours of ECG recording were analyzed. In the 7-day Holter records before ablation, 92 of 114 patients (81%) had documented AF episodes. All episodes were symptomatic in 35 patients (38%). In 52 patients (57%), both symptomatic and asymptomatic episodes were recorded, whereas in 5 patients (5%), all documented AF episodes were asymptomatic. After ablation, the percentage of patients with only asymptomatic AF recurrences increased to 37% (P<0.05) at the 6-month follow-up. An analysis of patient characteristics and arrhythmia patterns failed to identify a specific subset who were at high risk for the development of asymptomatic AF. CONCLUSIONS Even in patients presenting with highly symptomatic AF, asymptomatic episodes may occur and significantly increase after catheter ablation. A symptom-only-based follow-up would substantially overestimate the success rate. Objective measures such as long-term Holter monitoring are needed to identify asymptomatic AF recurrences after ablation.

Disease progression and recurrence in women treated for vulvovaginal intraepithelial neoplasia

OBJECTIVE The malignant potential of intraepithelial neoplasia of the vulva and vagina after treatment is not well defined. Our objective was to examine risk factors for recurrence and invasive disease. METHODS Four hundred sixty-four women with biopsy proven high-grade intraepithelial neoplasia of the vulva and vagina were identified in the electronic databases of four colposcopy clinics. Inclusion criteria were a follow-up of more than one year, no history of invasive cancer and no invasive cancer within the first year after initial treatment. We investigated the potential factors associated with recurrence and progression using a logistic regression analysis to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS Of the 411 eligible patients, 123 patients (29.9%) recurred later than one year after initial treatment and 24 patients (5.8%) progressed to invasive disease. According to multivariate analyses, the risk factors associated with recurrence were multifocality (OR, 3.33; 95% CI, 2.02 to 5.51), immunosuppression (OR, 2.51; 95% CI, 1.09 to 5.81), excision as initial treatment (vs. laser evaporation; OR, 1.79; 95% CI, 1.11 to 2.91) and smoking (OR, 1.61; 95% CI, 1.02 to 2.55). Risk factors for progression to invasive disease were immunosuppression (OR, 4.00; 95% CI, 1.30 to 12.25), multifocality (OR, 3.05; 95% CI, 1.25 to 7.43) and smoking (OR, 2.97; 95% CI, 1.16 to 7.60), but not treatment modality. CONCLUSION Laser evaporation combined with extensive biopsy is at least as efficacious as initial treatment of intraepithelial neoplasia with excision. Smoking is a risk factor for both recurrence and progression to invasive disease. Hence, smoking cessation should be advised and maintaining a long follow-up period due to late relapses is necessary.

Tumour genomic and microenvironmental heterogeneity for integrated prediction of 5-year biochemical recurrence of prostate cancer: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND Clinical prognostic groupings for localised prostate cancers are imprecise, with 30-50% of patients recurring after image-guided radiotherapy or radical prostatectomy. We aimed to test combined genomic and microenvironmental indices in prostate cancer to improve risk stratification and complement clinical prognostic factors. METHODS We used DNA-based indices alone or in combination with intra-prostatic hypoxia measurements to develop four prognostic indices in 126 low-risk to intermediate-risk patients (Toronto cohort) who will receive image-guided radiotherapy. We validated these indices in two independent cohorts of 154 (Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center cohort [MSKCC] cohort) and 117 (Cambridge cohort) radical prostatectomy specimens from low-risk to high-risk patients. We applied unsupervised and supervised machine learning techniques to the copy-number profiles of 126 pre-image-guided radiotherapy diagnostic biopsies to develop prognostic signatures. Our primary endpoint was the development of a set of prognostic measures capable of stratifying patients for risk of biochemical relapse 5 years after primary treatment. FINDINGS Biochemical relapse was associated with indices of tumour hypoxia, genomic instability, and genomic subtypes based on multivariate analyses. We identified four genomic subtypes for prostate cancer, which had different 5-year biochemical relapse-free survival. Genomic instability is prognostic for relapse in both image-guided radiotherapy (multivariate analysis hazard ratio [HR] 4·5 [95% CI 2·1-9·8]; p=0·00013; area under the receiver operator curve [AUC] 0·70 [95% CI 0·65-0·76]) and radical prostatectomy (4·0 [1·6-9·7]; p=0·0024; AUC 0·57 [0·52-0·61]) patients with prostate cancer, and its effect is magnified by intratumoral hypoxia (3·8 [1·2-12]; p=0·019; AUC 0·67 [0·61-0·73]). A novel 100-loci DNA signature accurately classified treatment outcome in the MSKCC low-risk to intermediate-risk cohort (multivariate analysis HR 6·1 [95% CI 2·0-19]; p=0·0015; AUC 0·74 [95% CI 0·65-0·83]). In the independent MSKCC and Cambridge cohorts, this signature identified low-risk to high-risk patients who were most likely to fail treatment within 18 months (combined cohorts multivariate analysis HR 2·9 [95% CI 1·4-6·0]; p=0·0039; AUC 0·68 [95% CI 0·63-0·73]), and was better at predicting biochemical relapse than 23 previously published RNA signatures. INTERPRETATION This is the first study of cancer outcome to integrate DNA-based and microenvironment-based failure indices to predict patient outcome. Patients exhibiting these aggressive features after biopsy should be entered into treatment intensification trials. FUNDING Movember Foundation, Prostate Cancer Canada, Ontario Institute for Cancer Research, Canadian Institute for Health Research, NIHR Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre, The University of Cambridge, Cancer Research UK, Cambridge Cancer Charity, Prostate Cancer UK, Hutchison Whampoa Limited, Terry Fox Research Institute, Princess Margaret Cancer Centre Foundation, PMH-Radiation Medicine Program Academic Enrichment Fund, Motorcycle Ride for Dad (Durham), Canadian Cancer Society.

Laparoscopic management of bowel endometriosis: resection margins as a predictor of recurrence.

OBJECTIVE To evaluate possible predictive factors for recurrence after laparoscopic segmental bowel resection for bowel endometriosis. DESIGN Cohort study. SETTING Academic tertiary referral center. METHODS 95 symptomatic women with bowel endometriosis who underwent laparoscopic segmental bowel resection at the Endometriosis clinic, University of Berne, between 2002 and 2012 were enrolled. Since 14 women were lost to follow-up, 81 formed the final cohort. Clinical and histological characteristics were examined as possible predictive factors for disease recurrence. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Recurrence, defined as a subsequent operation due to recurrent endometriosis-associated pain with a histologically confirmed endometriotic lesion. RESULTS Recurrence was observed in 13 (16%) patients. Variables that were significantly associated to recurrence by the Cox regression analysis were positive bowel resection margins (hazard ratio 6.5, 95% confidence interval 1.8-23.5, p = 0.005), age <31 years (hazard ratio 5.6, 95% confidence interval 1.7-18.6, p = 0.005) and body mass index ≥23 kg/m(2) (hazard ratio 11.0, 95% confidence interval 2.7-44.6, p = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS Positive bowel resection margins as well as age <31 years and body mass index ≥23 kg/m(2) appear to be independent predictors of disease recurrence.

Endoscopic and Open Release Similarly Safe for the Treatment of Carpal Tunnel Syndrome. A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND The Endoscopic Release of Carpal Tunnel Syndrome (ECTR) is a minimal invasive approach for the treatment of Carpal Tunnel Syndrome. There is scepticism regarding the safety of this technique, based on the assumption that this is a rather "blind" procedure and on the high number of severe complications that have been reported in the literature. PURPOSE To evaluate whether there is evidence supporting a higher risk after ECTR in comparison to the conventional open release. METHODS We searched MEDLINE (January 1966 to November 2013), EMBASE (January 1980 to November 2013), the Cochrane Neuromuscular Disease Group Specialized Register (November 2013) and CENTRAL (2013, issue 11 in The Cochrane Library). We hand-searched reference lists of included studies. We included all randomized or quasi-randomized controlled trials (e.g. study using alternation, date of birth, or case record number) that compare any ECTR with any OCTR technique. Safety was assessed by the incidence of major, minor and total number of complications, recurrences, and re-operations.The total time needed before return to work or to return to daily activities was also assessed. We synthesized data using a random-effects meta-analysis in STATA. We conducted a sensitivity analysis for rare events using binomial likelihood. We judged the conclusiveness of meta-analysis calculating the conditional power of meta-analysis. CONCLUSIONS ECTR is associated with less time off work or with daily activities. The assessment of major complications, reoperations and recurrence of symptoms does not favor either of the interventions. There is an uncertain advantage of ECTR with respect to total minor complications (more transient paresthesia but fewer skin-related complications). Future studies are unlikely to alter these findings because of the rarity of the outcome. The effect of a learning curve might be responsible for reduced recurrences and reoperations with ECTR in studies that are more recent, although formal statistical analysis failed to provide evidence for such an association. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE I.

Response to chemotherapy, recurrence and survival in advanced-stage ovarian, fallopian tube and primary peritoneal cancer patients with non-Ashkenazi Jewish BRCA mutations, compared to those without

Objectives. Previous studies have shown a survival advantage in ovarian cancer patients with Ashkenazi-Jewish (AJ) BRCA founder mutations, compared to sporadic ovarian cancer patients. The purpose of this study was to determine if this association exists in ovarian cancer patients with non-Ashkenazi Jewish BRCA mutations. In addition, we sought to account for possible "survival bias" by minimizing any lead time that may exist between diagnosis and genetic testing. ^ Methods. Patients with stage III/IV ovarian, fallopian tube, or primary peritoneal cancer and a non-Ashkenazi Jewish BRCA1 or 2 mutation, seen for genetic testing January 1996-July 2007, were identified from genetics and institutional databases. Medical records were reviewed for clinical factors, including response to initial chemotherapy. Patients with sporadic (non-hereditary) ovarian, fallopian tube, or primary peritoneal cancer, without family history of breast or ovarian cancer, were compared to similar cases, matched by age, stage, year of diagnosis, and vital status at time interval to BRCA testing. When possible, 2 sporadic patients were matched to each BRCA patient. An additional group of unmatched, sporadic ovarian, fallopian tube and primary peritoneal cancer patients was included for a separate analysis. Progression-free (PFS) & overall survival (OS) were calculated by the Kaplan-Meier method. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were calculated for variables of interest. Matched pairs were treated as clusters. Stratified log rank test was used to calculate survival data for matched pairs using paired event times. Fisher's exact test, chi-square, and univariate logistic regression were also used for analysis. ^ Results. Forty five advanced-stage ovarian, fallopian tube and primary peritoneal cancer patients with non-Ashkenazi Jewish (non-AJ) BRCA mutations, 86 sporadic-matched and 414 sporadic-unmatched patients were analyzed. Compared to the sporadic-matched and sporadic-unmatched ovarian cancer patients, non-AJ BRCA mutation carriers had longer PFS (17.9 & 13.8 mos. vs. 32.0 mos., HR 1.76 [95% CI 1.13–2.75] & 2.61 [95% CI 1.70–4.00]). In relation to the sporadic- unmatched patients, non-AJ BRCA patients had greater odds of complete response to initial chemotherapy (OR 2.25 [95% CI 1.17–5.41]) and improved OS (37.6 mos. vs. 101.4 mos., HR 2.64 [95% CI 1.49–4.67]). ^ Conclusions. This study demonstrates a significant survival advantage in advanced-stage ovarian cancer patients with non-AJ BRCA mutations, confirming the previous studies in the Jewish population. Our efforts to account for "survival bias," by matching, will continue with collaborative studies. ^

Improving the health and well-being of women at risk for neural tube defect recurrence

There is growing interest in providing women with internatal care, a package of healthcare and ancillary services that can improve their health during the period after the termination of one pregnancy but before the conception of the next pregnancy. Women who have had a pregnancy affected by a neural tube defect can especially benefit from internatal care because they are at increased risk for recurrence and improvements to their health during the inter-pregnancy period can prevent future negative birth outcomes. The dissertation provides three papers that inform the content of internatal care for women at risk for recurrence by examining descriptive epidemiology to develop an accurate risk profile of the population, assessing whether women at risk for recurrence would benefit from a psychosocial intervention, and determining how to improve health promotion efforts targeting folic acid use.^ Paper one identifies information relevant for developing risk profiles and conducting risk assessments. A number of investigations have found that the risk for neural tube defects differs between non-Hispanic Whites and Hispanics. To understand the risk difference, the descriptive epidemiology of spina bifida and anencephaly was examined for Hispanics and non-Hispanic Whites based on data from the Texas Birth Defects Registry for the years 1999 through 2004. Crude and adjusted birth prevalence ratios and corresponding 95% confidence intervals were calculated between descriptive epidemiologic characteristics and anencephaly and spina bifida for non-Hispanic Whites and for Hispanics. In both race/ethnic groups, anencephaly expressed an inverse relationship with maternal age and a positive linear relationship with parity. Both relationships were stronger in non-Hispanic Whites. Female infants had a higher risk for anencephaly in non-Hispanic Whites. Lower maternal education was associated with increased risk for spina bifida in Hispanics.^ Paper two assesses the need for a psychosocial intervention. For mothers who have children with spina bifida, the transition to motherhood can be stressful. This qualitative study explored the process of becoming a mother to a child with spina bifida focusing particularly on stress and coping in the immediate postnatal environment. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with six mothers who have children with spina bifida. Mothers were asked about their initial emotional and problem-based coping efforts, the quality and kind of support provided by health providers, and the characteristics of their meaning-based coping efforts; questions matched Transactional Model of Stress and Coping (TMSC) constructs. Analysis of the responses revealed a number of modifiable stress and coping transactions, the most salient being: health providers are in a position to address beliefs about self-causality and prevent mothers from experiencing the repercussions that stem from maintaining these beliefs. ^ Paper three identifies considerations when creating health promotion materials targeting folic acid use. A brochure was designed using concepts from the Precaution Adoption Process Model (PAPM). Three focus groups comprising 26 mothers of children with spina bifida evaluated the brochure. One focus group was conducted in Spanish-only, the other two focus groups were conducted in English and Spanish combined. Qualitative analysis of coded transcripts revealed that a brochure is a helpful adjunct. Questions about folic acid support the inclusion of an insert with basic information. There may be a need to develop different educational material for Hispanics so the importance of folic acid is provided in a situational context. Some participants blamed themselves for their pregnancy outcome which may affect their receptivity to messages in the brochure. The women's desire for photographs that affect their perception of threat and their identification with the second role model indicate they belong to PAPM Stage 2 and 3. Participants preferred colorful envelopes, high quality paper, intimidating photographs, simple words, conversational style sentences, and positive messages.^ These papers develop the content of risk assessment, psychosocial intervention, and health promotion components of internatal care as they apply to women at risk for recurrence. The findings provided evidence for considering parity and maternal age when assessing nutritional risk. The two dissimilarities between the two race/ethnic groups, infant sex and maternal education lent support to creating separate risk profiles. Interviews with mothers of children with spina bifida revealed the existence of unmet needs-suggesting that a psychosocial intervention provided as part of internatal care can strengthen and support women's well-being. Segmenting the audience according to race/ethnicity and PAPM stage can improve the relevance of print materials promoting folic acid use.^

Enlarged tracheoesophageal puncture: A systematic review and retrospective analysis

Background. An enlarged tracheoesophageal puncture (TEP) results in aspiration around the voice prosthesis (VP) and may lead to pneumonia. The aims of this research were: (1) to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis on enlarged TEP; (2) to analyze preoperative, perioperative, and postoperative risk factors for enlarged TEP; and (3) to evaluate control of leakage around the VP using conservative treatments and adverse events in patients with enlarged TEP.^ Methods. A systematic review was conducted (1978-2008). A summary risk estimate was calculated using a random-effects meta-analysis model. A retrospective cohort study was completed. Patients who underwent total laryngectomy and TEP at The University of Texas M. D. Anderson Cancer Center (MDACC) were included. Multiple logistic regression methods were used to assess risk factors for enlargement. Descriptive and bivariate statistics were calculated to evaluate outcomes and adverse events. Results: Twenty-seven manuscripts were included in the systematic review. The summary risk estimate of enlarged TEP/leakage around the VP was 7.2% (95% CI: 4.8%-9.6%). Temporary VP removal and TEP-site injections were the most commonly reported treatments. Neither prosthetic diameter (p=0.076) nor timing of TEP (p=0.297) significantly increased risk of enlargement per stratified analyses of published outcomes. The cumulative incidence of enlarged TEP was 18.6% (36/194, 95% CI: 13.0%-24.1%) in the MDACC cohort. Enlarged TEP occurred exclusively in irradiated patients. Adjusting for length of follow-up and timing of TEP, advanced nodal disease (ORadjusted: 4.3, 95% CI: 1.0-19.1), stricture (ORadjusted : 3.2, 95% CI: 1.2-8.6), and locoregional recurrence/distant metastasis after laryngectomy (ORadjusted: 6.2, 95% CI: 2.3-16.4) increased risk of enlarged TEP. At last follow-up, conservative methods controlled leakage around the VP in 81% (29/36) of patients. Unresolved leakage was associated with recurrent cancer (p=0.081) and TEP-site irregularity (p=0.003). Relative to those without enlargement, enlarged TEP patients had significantly higher risk of pneumonia (RR: 3.4, 95% CI: 1.9-6.2).^ Conclusions. These data establish that enlarged TEP poses serious health risks, and provide insight into medical and oncologic factors that may contribute to development of this complication. In addition, this research supports the use of conservative treatments to address leakage after enlarged TEP in lieu of complete TEP closure.^

Venous thromboembolism in patients with acute leukemia: Prevalence, incidence, recurrence of thrombosis, risk factors, and impact on survival

Venous thromboembolism (VTE), including deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and pulmonary embolism (PE), is the third most preventable cardiovascular disease and a growing public health problem in the United States. The incidence of VTE remains high with an annual estimate of more than 600,000 symptomatic events. DVT affects an estimated 2 million American each year with a death toll of 300,000 persons per year from DVT-related PE. Leukemia patients are at high risk for both hemorrhage and thrombosis; however, little is known about thrombosis among acute leukemia patients. The ultimate goal of this dissertation was to obtain deep understanding of thrombotic issue among acute leukemia patients. The dissertation was presented in a format of three papers. First paper mainly looked at distribution and risk factors associated with development of VTE among patients with acute leukemia prior to leukemia treatment. Second paper looked at incidence, risk factors, and impact of VTE on survival of patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia during treatment. Third paper looked at recurrence and risk factors for VTE recurrence among acute leukemia patients with an initial episode of VTE. Descriptive statistics, Chi-squared or Fisher's exact test, median test, Mann-Whitney test, logistic regression analysis, Nonparametric Estimation Kaplan-Meier with a log-rank test or Cox model were used when appropriate. Results from analyses indicated that acute leukemia patients had a high prevalence, incidence, and recurrent rate of VTE. Prior history of VTE, obesity, older age, low platelet account, presence of Philadelphia positive ALL, use of oral contraceptives or hormone replacement therapy, presence of malignancies, and co-morbidities may place leukemia patients at an increased risk for VTE development or recurrence. Interestingly, development of VTE was not associated with a higher risk of death among hospitalized acute leukemia patients.^

Termination and cost analysis: Complexity and precision issues

The research in this thesis is related to static cost and termination analysis. Cost analysis aims at estimating the amount of resources that a given program consumes during the execution, and termination analysis aims at proving that the execution of a given program will eventually terminate. These analyses are strongly related, indeed cost analysis techniques heavily rely on techniques developed for termination analysis. Precision, scalability, and applicability are essential in static analysis in general. Precision is related to the quality of the inferred results, scalability to the size of programs that can be analyzed, and applicability to the class of programs that can be handled by the analysis (independently from precision and scalability issues). This thesis addresses these aspects in the context of cost and termination analysis, from both practical and theoretical perspectives. For cost analysis, we concentrate on the problem of solving cost relations (a form of recurrence relations) into closed-form upper and lower bounds, which is the heart of most modern cost analyzers, and also where most of the precision and applicability limitations can be found. We develop tools, and their underlying theoretical foundations, for solving cost relations that overcome the limitations of existing approaches, and demonstrate superiority in both precision and applicability. A unique feature of our techniques is the ability to smoothly handle both lower and upper bounds, by reversing the corresponding notions in the underlying theory. For termination analysis, we study the hardness of the problem of deciding termination for a speci�c form of simple loops that arise in the context of cost analysis. This study gives a better understanding of the (theoretical) limits of scalability and applicability for both termination and cost analysis.

Uncertainty Analysis in New Seismic Hazard Study of Spain Aimed at the Revision of the Spanish Building Code.

In this paper we present a global overview of the recent study carried out in Spain for the new hazard map, which final goal is the revision of the Building Code in our country (NCSE-02). The study was carried our for a working group joining experts from The Instituto Geografico Nacional (IGN) and the Technical University of Madrid (UPM) , being the different phases of the work supervised by an expert Committee integrated by national experts from public institutions involved in subject of seismic hazard. The PSHA method (Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment) has been followed, quantifying the epistemic uncertainties through a logic tree and the aleatory ones linked to variability of parameters by means of probability density functions and Monte Carlo simulations. In a first phase, the inputs have been prepared, which essentially are: 1) a project catalogue update and homogenization at Mw 2) proposal of zoning models and source characterization 3) calibration of Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPE’s) with actual data and development of a local model with data collected in Spain for Mw < 5.5. In a second phase, a sensitivity analysis of the different input options on hazard results has been carried out in order to have criteria for defining the branches of the logic tree and their weights. Finally, the hazard estimation was done with the logic tree shown in figure 1, including nodes for quantifying uncertainties corresponding to: 1) method for estimation of hazard (zoning and zoneless); 2) zoning models, 3) GMPE combinations used and 4) regression method for estimation of source parameters. In addition, the aleatory uncertainties corresponding to the magnitude of the events, recurrence parameters and maximum magnitude for each zone have been also considered including probability density functions and Monte Carlo simulations The main conclusions of the study are presented here, together with the obtained results in terms of PGA and other spectral accelerations SA (T) for return periods of 475, 975 and 2475 years. The map of the coefficient of variation (COV) are also represented to give an idea of the zones where the dispersion among results are the highest and the zones where the results are robust.

Towards an abstract domain for resource analysis of logic programs using sized types

We present a novel general resource analysis for logic programs based on sized types.Sized types are representations that incorporate structural (shape) information and allow expressing both lower and upper bounds on the size of a set of terms and their subterms at any position and depth. They also allow relating the sizes of terms and subterms occurring at different argument positions in logic predicates. Using these sized types, the resource analysis can infer both lower and upper bounds on the resources used by all the procedures in a program as functions on input term (and subterm) sizes, overcoming limitations of existing analyses and enhancing their precision. Our new resource analysis has been developed within the abstract interpretation framework, as an extension of the sized types abstract domain, and has been integrated into the Ciao preprocessor, CiaoPP. The abstract domain operations are integrated with the setting up and solving of recurrence equations for both, inferring size and resource usage functions. We show that the analysis is an improvement over the previous resource analysis present in CiaoPP and compares well in power to state of the art systems.

Sized Type Analysis for Logic Programs (Technical Communication)

We present a novel analysis for relating the sizes of terms and subterms occurring at diferent argument positions in logic predicates. We extend and enrich the concept of sized type as a representation that incorporates structural (shape) information and allows expressing both lower and upper bounds on the size of a set of terms and their subterms at any position and depth. For example, expressing bounds on the length of lists of numbers, together with bounds on the values of all of their elements. The analysis is developed using abstract interpretation and the novel abstract operations are based on setting up and solving recurrence relations between sized types. It has been integrated, together with novel resource usage and cardinality analyses, in the abstract interpretation framework in the Ciao preprocessor, CiaoPP, in order to assess both the accuracy of the new size analysis and its usefulness in the resource usage estimation application. We show that the proposed sized types are a substantial improvement over the previous size analyses present in CiaoPP, and also benefit the resource analysis considerably, allowing the inference of equal or better bounds than comparable state of the art systems.