Optimal online prediction in adversarial environments

In many prediction problems, including those that arise in computer security and computational finance, the process generating the data is best modelled as an adversary with whom the predictor competes. Even decision problems that are not inherently adversarial can be usefully modeled in this way, since the assumptions are sufficiently weak that effective prediction strategies for adversarial settings are very widely applicable.

Optimal online prediction in adversarial environments

In many prediction problems, including those that arise in computer security and computational finance, the process generating the data is best modelled as an adversary with whom the predictor competes. Even decision problems that are not inherently adversarial can be usefully modeled in this way, since the assumptions are sufficiently weak that effective prediction strategies for adversarial settings are very widely applicable.

Prediction of cis/trans isomerization in proteins using PSI-BLAST profiles and secondary structure information

Background The majority of peptide bonds in proteins are found to occur in the trans conformation. However, for proline residues, a considerable fraction of Prolyl peptide bonds adopt the cis form. Proline cis/trans isomerization is known to play a critical role in protein folding, splicing, cell signaling and transmembrane active transport. Accurate prediction of proline cis/trans isomerization in proteins would have many important applications towards the understanding of protein structure and function. Results In this paper, we propose a new approach to predict the proline cis/trans isomerization in proteins using support vector machine (SVM). The preliminary results indicated that using Radial Basis Function (RBF) kernels could lead to better prediction performance than that of polynomial and linear kernel functions. We used single sequence information of different local window sizes, amino acid compositions of different local sequences, multiple sequence alignment obtained from PSI-BLAST and the secondary structure information predicted by PSIPRED. We explored these different sequence encoding schemes in order to investigate their effects on the prediction performance. The training and testing of this approach was performed on a newly enlarged dataset of 2424 non-homologous proteins determined by X-Ray diffraction method using 5-fold cross-validation. Selecting the window size 11 provided the best performance for determining the proline cis/trans isomerization based on the single amino acid sequence. It was found that using multiple sequence alignments in the form of PSI-BLAST profiles could significantly improve the prediction performance, the prediction accuracy increased from 62.8% with single sequence to 69.8% and Matthews Correlation Coefficient (MCC) improved from 0.26 with single local sequence to 0.40. Furthermore, if coupled with the predicted secondary structure information by PSIPRED, our method yielded a prediction accuracy of 71.5% and MCC of 0.43, 9% and 0.17 higher than the accuracy achieved based on the singe sequence information, respectively. Conclusion A new method has been developed to predict the proline cis/trans isomerization in proteins based on support vector machine, which used the single amino acid sequence with different local window sizes, the amino acid compositions of local sequence flanking centered proline residues, the position-specific scoring matrices (PSSMs) extracted by PSI-BLAST and the predicted secondary structures generated by PSIPRED. The successful application of SVM approach in this study reinforced that SVM is a powerful tool in predicting proline cis/trans isomerization in proteins and biological sequence analysis.

A comparison of alternative bankruptcy prediction models

Early models of bankruptcy prediction employed financial ratios drawn from pre-bankruptcy financial statements and performed well both in-sample and out-of-sample. Since then there has been an ongoing effort in the literature to develop models with even greater predictive performance. A significant innovation in the literature was the introduction into bankruptcy prediction models of capital market data such as excess stock returns and stock return volatility, along with the application of the Black–Scholes–Merton option-pricing model. In this note, we test five key bankruptcy models from the literature using an upto- date data set and find that they each contain unique information regarding the probability of bankruptcy but that their performance varies over time. We build a new model comprising key variables from each of the five models and add a new variable that proxies for the degree of diversification within the firm. The degree of diversification is shown to be negatively associated with the risk of bankruptcy. This more general model outperforms the existing models in a variety of in-sample and out-of-sample tests.

Rating counselor - client behavior in online counseling: Development and preliminary psychometric properties of the Counseling Progress and Depth Rating Instrument

Although there are widely accepted and utilized models and frameworks for nondirective counseling (NDC), there is little in the way of tools or instruments designed to assist in determining whether or not a specific episode of counseling is consistent with the stated model or framework. The Counseling Progress and Depth Rating Instrument (CPDRI) was developed to evaluate counselor integrity in the use of Egan's skilled helper model in online counseling. The instrument was found to have sound internal consistency, good interrater reliability, and good face and convergent validity. The CPDRI is, therefore, proposed as a useful tool to facilitate investigation of the degree to which counselors adhere to and apply a widely used approach to NDC

Prediction of structural integrity, robustness and service life using advanced finite element methods

Corrosion is a common phenomenon and critical aspects of steel structural application. It affects the daily design, inspection and maintenance in structural engineering, especially for the heavy and complex industrial applications, where the steel structures are subjected to hash corrosive environments in combination of high working stress condition and often in open field and/or under high temperature production environments. In the paper, it presents the actual engineering application of advanced finite element methods in the predication of the structural integrity and robustness at a designed service life for the furnaces of alumina production, which was operated in the high temperature, corrosive environments and rotating with high working stress condition.

The validation of the rating for subdivision neighbourhood sustainability design (RSNSD) In Bangkok Metropolitan Region (BMR), Thailand

In recent years, the problems resulting from unsustainable subdivision development have become significant problems in the Bangkok Metropolitan Region (BMR), Thailand. Numbers of government departments and agencies have tried to eliminate the problems by introducing the rating tools to encourage the higher sustainability levels of subdivision development in BMR, such as the Environmental Impact Assessment Monitoring Award (EIA-MA) and the Thai’s Rating for Energy and Environmental Sustainability of New construction and major renovation (TREES-NC). However, the EIA-MA has included the neighbourhood designs in the assessment criteria, but this requirement applies to large projects only. Meanwhile, TREES-NC has focused only on large scale buildings such as condominiums, office buildings, and is not specific for subdivision neighbourhood designs. Recently, the new rating tool named “Rating for Subdivision Neighbourhood Sustainability Design (RSNSD)” has been developed. Therefore, the validation process of RSNSD is still required. This paper aims to validate the new rating tool for subdivision neighbourhood design in BMR. The RSNSD has been validated by applying the rating tool to eight case study subdivisions. The result of RSNSD by data generated through surveying subdivisions will be compared to the existing results from the EIA-MA. The selected cases include of one “Excellent Award”, two “Very Good Award”, and five non-rated subdivision developments. This paper expects to prove the credibility of RSNSD before introducing to the real subdivision development practises. The RSNSD could be useful to encourage higher sustainability subdivision design level, and then protect the problems from further subdivision development in BMR.