Physicochemical parameters of water sample the four coastal lagoons at the Peninsula of Yucatan

Study sites. Samples of surface water were taken from 4 coastal lagoons on the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico: Celestun (20° 45' N - 90° 22' W), Chelem (21° 15' N - 89° 45' W), Rosada Lagoon (21º 19' N - 89º 19' W), and Sabancuy Estuary (18° 58' N - 91° 12' W). The sampling was performed from august to October of 2011 (Chelem 08/24; Laguna Rosada 09/06; Celestún 09/28; Sabancuy 10/25). The sampling was random without replacement and 10 samples of surface water were collected along a transect parallel to the coastal axis. Samples were deposited in sterile plastic bottles and conserved in refrigeration at 4°C. All samples were processed within 24 hours after sampling. According to the Mexican laws and regulations no permissions are required to obtain water and sediment samples from open public areas. Analysis of environmental and physicochemical parameters. Determinations of the environmental parameters were performed with a Hach 5465000 model 156 multi-parameter measuring instrument. The Lorenzen method was used to determine chlorophyll-a (21) with 90% acetone and the concentration was calculated according to the formula: Chla= 27.63 (OD665o - OD665a)(VA)/VM x L Where, OD665o: absorbance at 665 nm before acidification; OD665a: absorbance at 665 nm after acidification; VA: volume (ml) of acetone for extraction; VM: volume (ml) of filtered water; L: length (cm) of the photometric cell. Determinations of the physicochemical parameters (silicates, phosphates, nitrates, nitrites and ammonia) were performed using the spectrophotometric techniques described and modified by Strickland and Parsons (1972).

A fitting algorithm for random modeling the PLC channel

The characteristics of the power-line communication (PLC) channel are difficult to model due to the heterogeneity of the networks and the lack of common wiring practices. To obtain the full variability of the PLC channel, random channel generators are of great importance for the design and testing of communication algorithms. In this respect, we propose a random channel generator that is based on the top-down approach. Basically, we describe the multipath propagation and the coupling effects with an analytical model. We introduce the variability into a restricted set of parameters and, finally, we fit the model to a set of measured channels. The proposed model enables a closed-form description of both the mean path-loss profile and the statistical correlation function of the channel frequency response. As an example of application, we apply the procedure to a set of in-home measured channels in the band 2-100 MHz whose statistics are available in the literature. The measured channels are divided into nine classes according to their channel capacity. We provide the parameters for the random generation of channels for all nine classes, and we show that the results are consistent with the experimental ones. Finally, we merge the classes to capture the entire heterogeneity of in-home PLC channels. In detail, we introduce the class occurrence probability, and we present a random channel generator that targets the ensemble of all nine classes. The statistics of the composite set of channels are also studied, and they are compared to the results of experimental measurement campaigns in the literature.

Reliability analysis based on non-dimensional parameters

A reliability analysis method is proposed that starts with the identification of all variables involved. These are divided in three groups: (a) variables fixed by codes, as loads and strength project values, and their corresponding partial safety coefficients, (b) geometric variables defining the dimension of the main elements involved, (c) the cost variables, including the possible damages caused by failure, (d) the random variables as loads, strength, etc., and (e)the variables defining the statistical model, as the family of distribution and its corresponding parameters. Once the variables are known, the II-theorem is used to obtain a minimum equivalent set of non-dimensional variables, which is used to define the limit states. This allows a reduction in the number of variables involved and a better understanding of their coupling effects. Two minimum cost criteria are used for selecting the project dimensions. One is based on a bounded-probability of failure, and the other on a total cost, including the damages of the possible failure. Finally, the method is illustrated by means of an application.

Computer simulation of random parckings for self-similar particle size distributions in soil and granular materials: porosity and pore size distribution

A 2D computer simulation method of random packings is applied to sets of particles generated by a self-similar uniparametric model for particle size distributions (PSDs) in granular media. The parameter p which controls the model is the proportion of mass of particles corresponding to the left half of the normalized size interval [0,1]. First the influence on the total porosity of the parameter p is analyzed and interpreted. It is shown that such parameter, and the fractal exponent of the associated power scaling, are efficient packing parameters, but this last one is not in the way predicted in a former published work addressing an analogous research in artificial granular materials. The total porosity reaches the minimum value for p = 0.6. Limited information on the pore size distribution is obtained from the packing simulations and by means of morphological analysis methods. Results show that the range of pore sizes increases for decreasing values of p showing also different shape in the volume pore size distribution. Further research including simulations with a greater number of particles and image resolution are required to obtain finer results on the hierarchical structure of pore space.

Pseudo-random single photon counting for space-borne atmospheric sensing applications

The ability to accurately observe the Earth's carbon cycles from space gives scientists an important tool to analyze climate change. Current space-borne Integrated-Path Differential Absorption (IPDA) Iidar concepts have the potential to meet this need. They are mainly based on the pulsed time-offlight principle, in which two high energy pulses of different wavelengths interrogate the atmosphere for its transmission properties and are backscattered by the ground. In this paper, feasibility study results of a Pseudo-Random Single Photon Counting (PRSPC) IPDA lidar are reported. The proposed approach replaces the high energy pulsed source (e.g. a solidstate laser), with a semiconductor laser in CW operation with a similar average power of a few Watts, benefiting from better efficiency and reliability. The auto-correlation property of Pseudo-Random Binary Sequence (PRBS) and temporal shifting of the codes can be utilized to transmit both wavelengths simultaneously, avoiding the beam misalignment problem experienced by pulsed techniques. The envelope signal to noise ratio has been analyzed, and various system parameters have been selected. By restricting the telescopes field-of-view, the dominant noise source of ambient light can be suppressed, and in addition with a low noise single photon counting detector, a retrieval precision of 1.5 ppm over 50 km along-track averaging could be attained. We also describe preliminary experimental results involving a negative feedback Indium Gallium Arsenide (InGaAs) single photon avalanche photodiode and a low power Distributed Feedback laser diode modulated with PRBS driven acoustic optical modulator. The results demonstrate that higher detector saturation count rates will be needed for use in future spacebourne missions but measurement linearity and precision should meet the stringent requirements set out by future Earthobserving missions.

The estimation of statistical parameters for local alignment score distributions

The distribution of optimal local alignment scores of random sequences plays a vital role in evaluating the statistical significance of sequence alignments. These scores can be well described by an extreme-value distribution. The distribution’s parameters depend upon the scoring system employed and the random letter frequencies; in general they cannot be derived analytically, but must be estimated by curve fitting. For obtaining accurate parameter estimates, a form of the recently described ‘island’ method has several advantages. We describe this method in detail, and use it to investigate the functional dependence of these parameters on finite-length edge effects.

Thermodynamic parameters for the helix-coil transition of oligopeptides: molecular dynamics simulation with the peptide growth method.

The helix-coil transition equilibrium of polypeptides in aqueous solution was studied by molecular dynamics simulation. The peptide growth simulation method was introduced to generate dynamic models of polypeptide chains in a statistical (random) coil or an alpha-helical conformation. The key element of this method is to build up a polypeptide chain during the course of a molecular transformation simulation, successively adding whole amino acid residues to the chain in a predefined conformation state (e.g., alpha-helical or statistical coil). Thus, oligopeptides of the same length and composition, but having different conformations, can be incrementally grown from a common precursor, and their relative conformational free energies can be calculated as the difference between the free energies for growing the individual peptides. This affords a straightforward calculation of the Zimm-Bragg sigma and s parameters for helix initiation and helix growth. The calculated sigma and s parameters for the polyalanine alpha-helix are in reasonable agreement with the experimental measurements. The peptide growth simulation method is an effective way to study quantitatively the thermodynamics of local protein folding.

Analysis of Melanoma Onset: Assessing Familial Aggregation by Using Estimating Equations and Fitting Variance Components via Bayesian Random Effects Models

We investigate whether relative contributions of genetic and shared environmental factors are associated with an increased risk in melanoma. Data from the Queensland Familial Melanoma Project comprising 15,907 subjects arising from 1912 families were analyzed to estimate the additive genetic, common and unique environmental contributions to variation in the age at onset of melanoma. Two complementary approaches for analyzing correlated time-to-onset family data were considered: the generalized estimating equations (GEE) method in which one can estimate relationship-specific dependence simultaneously with regression coefficients that describe the average population response to changing covariates; and a subject-specific Bayesian mixed model in which heterogeneity in regression parameters is explicitly modeled and the different components of variation may be estimated directly. The proportional hazards and Weibull models were utilized, as both produce natural frameworks for estimating relative risks while adjusting for simultaneous effects of other covariates. A simple Markov Chain Monte Carlo method for covariate imputation of missing data was used and the actual implementation of the Bayesian model was based on Gibbs sampling using the free ware package BUGS. In addition, we also used a Bayesian model to investigate the relative contribution of genetic and environmental effects on the expression of naevi and freckles, which are known risk factors for melanoma.

Estimation of pharmacokinetic parameters from non-compartmental variables using Microsoft Excel((R))

This study was conducted to develop a method, termed 'back analysis (BA)', for converting non-compartmental variables to compartment model dependent pharmacokinetic parameters for both one- and two-compartment models. A Microsoft Excel((R)) spreadsheet was implemented with the use of Solver((R)) and visual basic functions. The performance of the BA method in estimating pharmacokinetic parameter values was evaluated by comparing the parameter values obtained to a standard modelling software program, NONMEM, using simulated data. The results show that the BA method was reasonably precise and provided low bias in estimating fixed and random effect parameters for both one- and two-compartment models. The pharmacokinetic parameters estimated from the BA method were similar to those of NONMEM estimation.

Emulation of random output simulators

Computer models, or simulators, are widely used in a range of scientific fields to aid understanding of the processes involved and make predictions. Such simulators are often computationally demanding and are thus not amenable to statistical analysis. Emulators provide a statistical approximation, or surrogate, for the simulators accounting for the additional approximation uncertainty. This thesis develops a novel sequential screening method to reduce the set of simulator variables considered during emulation. This screening method is shown to require fewer simulator evaluations than existing approaches. Utilising the lower dimensional active variable set simplifies subsequent emulation analysis. For random output, or stochastic, simulators the output dispersion, and thus variance, is typically a function of the inputs. This work extends the emulator framework to account for such heteroscedasticity by constructing two new heteroscedastic Gaussian process representations and proposes an experimental design technique to optimally learn the model parameters. The design criterion is an extension of Fisher information to heteroscedastic variance models. Replicated observations are efficiently handled in both the design and model inference stages. Through a series of simulation experiments on both synthetic and real world simulators, the emulators inferred on optimal designs with replicated observations are shown to outperform equivalent models inferred on space-filling replicate-free designs in terms of both model parameter uncertainty and predictive variance.

Solvable model for distribution networks on random graphs

We propose a simple model that captures the salient properties of distribution networks, and study the possible occurrence of blackouts, i.e., sudden failings of large portions of such networks. The model is defined on a random graph of finite connectivity. The nodes of the graph represent hubs of the network, while the edges of the graph represent the links of the distribution network. Both, the nodes and the edges carry dynamical two state variables representing the functioning or dysfunctional state of the node or link in question. We describe a dynamical process in which the breakdown of a link or node is triggered when the level of maintenance it receives falls below a given threshold. This form of dynamics can lead to situations of catastrophic breakdown, if levels of maintenance are themselves dependent on the functioning of the net, once maintenance levels locally fall below a critical threshold due to fluctuations. We formulate conditions under which such systems can be analyzed in terms of thermodynamic equilibrium techniques, and under these conditions derive a phase diagram characterizing the collective behavior of the system, given its model parameters. The phase diagram is confirmed qualitatively and quantitatively by simulations on explicit realizations of the graph, thus confirming the validity of our approach. © 2007 The American Physical Society.

NLSE-based model of a random distributed feedback fiber laser

In this work we propose a NLSE-based model of power and spectral properties of the random distributed feedback (DFB) fiber laser. The model is based on coupled set of non-linear Schrödinger equations for pump and Stokes waves with the distributed feedback due to Rayleigh scattering. The model considers random backscattering via its average strength, i.e. we assume that the feedback is incoherent. In addition, this allows us to speed up simulations sufficiently (up to several orders of magnitude). We found that the model of the incoherent feedback predicts the smooth and narrow (comparing with the gain spectral profile) generation spectrum in the random DFB fiber laser. The model allows one to optimize the random laser generation spectrum width varying the dispersion and nonlinearity values: we found, that the high dispersion and low nonlinearity results in narrower spectrum that could be interpreted as four-wave mixing between different spectral components in the quasi-mode-less spectrum of the random laser under study could play an important role in the spectrum formation. Note that the physical mechanism of the random DFB fiber laser formation and broadening is not identified yet. We investigate temporal and statistical properties of the random DFB fiber laser dynamics. Interestingly, we found that the intensity statistics is not Gaussian. The intensity auto-correlation function also reveals that correlations do exist. The possibility to optimize the system parameters to enhance the observed intrinsic spectral correlations to further potentially achieved pulsed (mode-locked) operation of the mode-less random distributed feedback fiber laser is discussed.

Study of the longitudinal distribution of power generated in a random distributed feedback Raman fibre laser with unidirectional pumping

The longitudinal distribution of the Stokes-component power in a Raman fibre laser with a random distributed feedback and unidirectional pumping is measured. The fibre parameters (linear loss and Rayleigh backscattering coefficient) are calculated based on the distributions obtained. A numerical model is developed to describe the lasing power distribution. The simulation results are in good agreement with the experimental data. © 2012 Kvantovaya Elektronika and Turpion Ltd.

Parameterized Link Functions in Generalized Linear Random Effect Models: a Case Study on Breast Cancer Treatment

In non-linear random effects some attention has been very recently devoted to the analysis ofsuitable transformation of the response variables separately (Taylor 1996) or not (Oberg and Davidian 2000) from the transformations of the covariates and, as far as we know, no investigation has been carried out on the choice of link function in such models. In our study we consider the use of a random effect model when a parameterized family of links (Aranda-Ordaz 1981, Prentice 1996, Pregibon 1980, Stukel 1988 and Czado 1997) is introduced. We point out the advantages and the drawbacks associated with the choice of this data-driven kind of modeling. Difficulties in the interpretation of regression parameters, and therefore in understanding the influence of covariates, as well as problems related to loss of efficiency of estimates and overfitting, are discussed. A case study on radiotherapy usage in breast cancer treatment is discussed.

Implementation of the EM Algorithm for Maximum Likelihood Estimation of a Random Effects Model for One Longitudinal Ordinal Outcome

2010 Mathematics Subject Classification: 62J99.