The 26 July 2005 heavy rainfall event over Mumbai: numerical modeling aspects

The performance of the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) in simulating an extreme rainfall event is evaluated, and subsequently the physical mechanisms leading to its initiation and sustenance are explored. As a case study, the heavy precipitation event that led to 65 cm of rainfall accumulation in a span of around 6 h (1430 LT-2030 LT) over Santacruz (Mumbai, India), on 26 July, 2005, is selected. Three sets of numerical experiments have been conducted. The first set of experiments (EXP1) consisted of a four-member ensemble, and was carried out in an idealized mode with a model grid spacing of 1 km. In spite of the idealized framework, signatures of heavy rainfall were seen in two of the ensemble members. The second set (EXP2) consisted of a five-member ensemble, with a four-level one-way nested integration and grid spacing of 54, 18, 6 and 1 km. The model was able to simulate a realistic spatial structure with the 54, 18, and 6 km grids; however, with the 1 km grid, the simulations were dominated by the prescribed boundary conditions. The third and final set of experiments (EXP3) consisted of a five-member ensemble, with a four-level one-way nesting and grid spacing of 54, 18, 6, and 2 km. The Scaled Lagged Average Forecasting (SLAF) methodology was employed to construct the ensemble members. The model simulations in this case were closer to observations, as compared to EXP2. Specifically, among all experiments, the timing of maximum rainfall, the abrupt increase in rainfall intensities, which was a major feature of this event, and the rainfall intensities simulated in EXP3 (at 6 km resolution) were closest to observations. Analysis of the physical mechanisms causing the initiation and sustenance of the event reveals some interesting aspects. Deep convection was found to be initiated by mid-tropospheric convergence that extended to lower levels during the later stage. In addition, there was a high negative vertical gradient of equivalent potential temperature suggesting strong atmospheric instability prior to and during the occurrence of the event. Finally, the presence of a conducive vertical wind shear in the lower and mid-troposphere is thought to be one of the major factors influencing the longevity of the event.

Coherent rainfall zones of the Indian region

We have delineated rainfall zones for the Indian region that are coherent with respect to the variations of the summer monsoon rainfall. Within each zone, the time series of the summer monsoon rainfall at every pair of stations are significantly positively correlated, and the mean interseries correlation for each zone is high. The interseries correlation data set is analysed in order to delineate the rainfall zones, using an objective method specifically developed for the purpose. Each of the zonal averages are shown to be representative of the zone as a whole. We suggest that this regionalization is appropriate for study of the variation of the summer monsoon rainfall over the Indian region on interannual and larger scales.

Prediction of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall using a state-of-the-art coupled ocean-atmosphere model

A state-of-the-art model of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system, the climate forecast system (CFS), from the National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), USA, has been ported onto the PARAM Padma parallel computing system at the Centre for Development of Advanced Computing (CDAC), Bangalore and retrospective predictions for the summer monsoon (June-September) season of 2009 have been generated, using five initial conditions for the atmosphere and one initial condition for the ocean for May 2009. Whereas a large deficit in the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR; June-September) was experienced over the Indian region (with the all-India rainfall deficit by 22% of the average), the ensemble average prediction was for above-average rainfall during the summer monsoon. The retrospective predictions of ISMR with CFS from NCEP for 1981-2008 have been analysed. The retrospective predictions from NCEP for the summer monsoon of 1994 and that from CDAC for 2009 have been compared with the simulations for each of the seasons with the stand-alone atmospheric component of the model, the global forecast system (GFS), and observations. It has been shown that the simulation with GFS for 2009 showed deficit rainfall as observed. The large error in the prediction for the monsoon of 2009 can be attributed to a positive Indian Ocean Dipole event seen in the prediction from July onwards, which was not present in the observations. This suggests that the error could be reduced with improvement of the ocean model over the equatorial Indian Ocean.

A Molecular Dynamics Study of Atomic Correlations in Glassy BzS3t

Glassy B&, the parent compound of the superionic conductor LiI-Li&B& has been studied by the molecular dynamics technique using a new potential model. The results suggest that the glass is made up of local units of four-membered B2S2 rings bridged by sulfur atoms, leading to a chainlike structure. Various pair correlation functions have been analyzed, and the B2Sz rings have been found to be planar. The calculated neutron structure factor shows a peak at 1.4 A-' which has been attributed to B-B correlations at 5.6 A. The glass transition temperature of the simulated system has been calculated to be around 800 K.

Correlations, quantum entanglement and interference in nanoscopic systems

Several of the most interesting quantum effects can or could be observed in nanoscopic systems. For example, the effect of strong correlations between electrons and of quantum interference can be measured in transport experiments through quantum dots, wires, individual molecules and rings formed by large molecules or arrays of quantum dots. In addition, quantum coherence and entanglement can be clearly observed in quantum corrals. In this paper we present calculations of transport properties through Aharonov-Bohm strongly correlated rings where the characteristic phenomenon of charge-spin separation is clearly observed. Additionally quantum interference effects show up in transport through pi-conjugated annulene molecules producing important effects on the conductance for different source-drain configurations, leading to the possibility of an interesting switching effect. Finally, elliptic quantum corrals offer an ideal system to study quantum entanglement due to their focalizing properties. Because of an enhanced interaction between impurities localized at the foci, these systems also show interesting quantum dynamical behaviour and offer a challenging scenario for quantum information experiments.

A Study of Long-range Correlations in Schizophrenia EEG using Detrended Fluctuation Analysis

In this paper, we have studied electroencephalogram (EEG) activity of schizophrenia patients, in resting eyes closed condition, with detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). The DFA gives information about scaling and long-range correlations in time series. We computed DFA exponents from 30 scalp locations of 18 male neuroleptic-naIve, recent-onset schizophrenia (NRS) subjects and 15 healthy male control subjects. Our results have shown two scaling regions in all the scalp locations in all the subjects, with different slopes, corresponding to two scaling exponents. No significant differences between the groups were found with first scaling exponent (short-range). However, the second scaling exponent (long-range) were significantly lower in control subjects at all scalp locations (p<0.05, Kruskal-Wallis test). These findings suggest that the long-range scaling behavior of EEG is sensitive to schizophrenia, and this may provide an additional insight into the brain dysfunction in schizophrenia.

Photobehavior of crystalline 4-styrylcoumarin dimorphs: structure-reactivity correlations

4-Styrylcoumarin crystallizes from chloroform and hexane mixture in two morphologically different modifications. The monoclinic form (needles, P2(1)/c) undergoes stereospecific photodimerization producing anti head-to-tail dimer across pyrone double bond, whereas the triclinic modification (prisms, P ($) over bar 1) dimerizes yielding photodimer of the same configuration, but across styrenic double bond. Single crystal X-ray analyses of the dimorphs reveal the packing differences permitting rationalization of the regio- and stereochemistry of the photoproducts. The significantly low dimer yield from the prismatic crystals is rationalized.

Studies in crystal engineering: structure�reactivity correlations of substituted styrylcoumarins and related systems

The solid state photochemical behaviour of 7-hydroxy-4-styrylcoumarin 1 and several of its derivatives and analogues has been investigated. All the compounds with the exception of 7-methoxy-4-styrylcoumarin 2 are photolabile and yield anti-HT dimers. It has been observed that chloro substitution in the systems studied does not lead to the expected beta-packing mode. The photobehaviour of 1 and 2 has been correlated with their crystal structures. Reasons for alpha-packing have been examined. The systematics in the arrangement of the carbonyl group and phenyl group of the close neighbours in the crystals of 1, 2 and a few other cases are presented.

A novel neural network design for long range prediction of rainfall pattern

The importance of long-range prediction of rainfall pattern for devising and planning agricultural strategies cannot be overemphasized. However, the prediction of rainfall pattern remains a difficult problem and the desired level of accuracy has not been reached. The conventional methods for prediction of rainfall use either dynamical or statistical modelling. In this article we report the results of a new modelling technique using artificial neural networks. Artificial neural networks are especially useful where the dynamical processes and their interrelations for a given phenomenon are not known with sufficient accuracy. Since conventional neural networks were found to be unsuitable for simulating and predicting rainfall patterns, a generalized structure of a neural network was then explored and found to provide consistent prediction (hindcast) of all-India annual mean rainfall with good accuracy. Performance and consistency of this network are evaluated and compared with those of other (conventional) neural networks. It is shown that the generalized network can make consistently good prediction of annual mean rainfall. Immediate application and potential of such a prediction system are discussed.

Novel correlations in two dimensions: Some exact solutions

We construct a new many-body Hamiltonian with two- and three-body interactions in two space dimensions and obtain its exact many-body ground state for an arbitrary number of particles. This ground state has a novel pairwise correlation. A class of exact solutions for the excited states is also found. These excited states display an energy spectrum similar to the Calogero-Sutherland model in one dimension. The model reduces to an analog of the well-known trigonometric Sutherland model when projected on to a circular ring.

Saturated liquid viscosity correlations for alternative refrigerants

This article presents dimensionless equations for the temperature dependence of the saturated liquid viscosity of R32, R123, R124, R125, R134a, R141b, and R152a valid over a temperature range of engineering interest. The correlation has the form Phi(D)(n)=A+BTD where Phi(D) is the dimensionless fluidity (1/eta(D)) and T-D is a dimensionless temperature. n, A, and B are evaluated for each of the above refrigerants based on a least-squares fit to experimental data. This equation is found to provide an improved fit over those existing in the literature up to T-D=0.8.

Orientational relaxation in dipolar systems: How much do we understand the role of correlations

Dipolar systems, both liquids and solids, constitute a class of naturally abundant systems that are important in all branches of natural science. The study of orientational relaxation provides a powerful method to understand the microscopic properties of these systems and, fortunately, there are many experimental tools to study orientational relaxation in the condensed phases. However, even after many years of intense research, our understanding of orientational relaxation in dipolar systems has remained largely imperfect. A major hurdle towards achieving a comprehensive understanding is the long range and complex nature of dipolar interactions which also made reliable theoretical study extremely difficult. These difficulties have led to the development of continuum model based theories, which although they provide simple, elegant expressions for quantities of interest, are mostly unsatisfactory as they totally neglect the molecularity of inter-molecular interactions. The situation has improved in recent years because of renewed studies, led by computer simulations. In this review, we shall address some of the recent advances, with emphasis on the work done in our laboratory at Bangalore. The reasons for the failure of the continuum model, as revealed by the recent Brownian dynamics simulations of the dipolar lattice, are discussed. The main reason is that the continuum model predicts too fast a decay of the torque-torque correlation function. On the other hand, a perturbative calculation, based on Zwanzig's projection operator technique, provides a fairly satisfactory description of the single particle orientational dynamics for not too strongly polar dipolar systems. A recently developed molecular hydrodynamic theory that properly includes the effects of intermolecular orientational pair correlations provides an even better description of the single-particle orientational dynamics. We also discuss the rank dependence of the dielectric friction. The other topics reviewed here includes dielectric relaxation and solvation dynamics, as they are intimately connected with orientational relaxation. Recent molecular dynamics simulations of the dipolar lattice are also discussed. The main theme of the present review is to understand the effects of intermolecular interactions on orientational relaxation. The presence of strong orientational pair correlation leads to a strong coupling between the single particle and the collective dynamics. This coupling can lead to rich dynamical properties, some of which are detailed here, while a major part remains yet unexplored.

Novel correlations in two dimensions: Two-body problem

We discuss a many-body Hamiltonian with two- and three-body interactions in two dimensions introduced recently by Murthy, Bhaduri and Sen. Apart from an analysis of some exact solutions in the many-body system, we analyse in detail the two-body problem which is completely solvable. We show that the solution of the two-body problem reduces to solving a known differential equation due to Heun. We show that the two-body spectrum becomes remarkably simple for large interaction strengths and the level structure resembles that of the Landau levels. We also clarify the 'ultraviolet' regularization which is needed to define an inverse-square potential properly and discuss its implications for our model.

Studies in crystal engineering: Crystal packing, topological photodimerization and structure-reactivity correlations in fluoro-substituted styrylcoumarins

In continuation of our studies on the influence of fluoro substitution on the solid state photobehaviour and packing pattern of styrylcoumarins, the results obtained for 4-(3-fluorostyryl)coumarin 1, 4-styryl-6-fluorocoumarin 2 and 4-styryl-7-fluorocoumarin 3 are presented. The configuration of the dimers was established on the basis of crystal packing of 1 and 2 (alpha-packed). A rationale for the significantly lower dimer yield in the crystal for 2 is proposed. In the observed centrosymmetric arrangement of the reactants the C=O ...pi (phenyl) contacts seem to provide additional attractive interactions. C-H ... O and C-H ... F hydrogen bonding seems to provide stability in these structures.