From perfect strangers to research partners: a study of relationships, resource sharing and perceived benefits within R&D cooperation networks

Doctoral thesis in Marketing and Strategy.

Dinámica y cinética de los procesos físicos y químicos del radical OH con compuestos orgánicos volátiles (COVs) de relevancia atmosférica. Dynamics and kinetics of the physical and chemical processes of OH radicals with atmospheric relevant volatile organic compounds (VOCs)

El objetivo del presente proyecto es estudiar los procesos físicos y químicos del radical OH con compuestos orgánicos volátiles (COVs), con los cuales sea factible la formación de agregados de van der Waals (vdW) responsables de la curvatura en los gráficos de Arrhenius, empleando técnicas modernas, complementarias entre si y novedosas en el país. El problema será abordado desde tres perspectivas complementarias: 1) estudios cinéticos, 2) estudios mecanísticos y de distribución de productos y 3) estudios de la dinámica de los procesos físicos y químicos. La finalidad es alcanzar una mejor comprensión de los mecanismos que intervienen en el comportamiento químico de especies presentes en la atmósfera y obtener datos cinéticos de alta calidad que puedan alimentar modelos computacionales capaces de describir la composición de la atmósfera, presente y futura. Los objetivos son estudiar: 1) mediante fotólisis láser pulsada con detección por fluorescencia inducida por láser (PLP-LIF), en reactores de flujo, la cinética de reacción del radical OH(v”=0) con COVs que presentan gráficos de Arrhenius curvos con energías de activación negativas, tales como alcoholes insaturados, alquenos halogenados, éteres halogenados, ésteres alifáticos; 2) en una cámara de simulación de condiciones atmosféricas de gran volumen (4500 L), la identidad y el rendimiento de productos de las reacciones mencionadas, a fines de evaluar su impacto atmosférico y dilucidar los mecanismos de reacción; 3) mediante haces moleculares y espectroscopía láser, la estructura y reactividad de complejos de vdW entre alcoholes insaturados o aromáticos (cresoles) y el radical OH, como modelo de los aductos propuestos como responsables de la desviación al comportamiento de Arrhenius de las reacciones mencionadas; 4) mediante PLP-LIF y expansiones supersónicas, las constantes específicas estado a estado (ksts) de relajación/reacción del radical OH(v”=1-4) vibracionalmente excitado con los COVs mencionados. Los resultados experimentales obtenidos serán contrastados con cálculos ab-initio de estructura electrónica, los cuales apoyarán las interpretaciones, permitirán proponer estructuras de estados de transición y aductos colisionales, como así también calcular las frecuencias de vibración de los complejos de vdW para su posterior asignación en los espectros LIF y REMPI. Asimismo, los mecanismos de reacción propuestos y los parámetros cinéticos medidos experimentalmente serán comparados con aquellos obtenidos por cálculos teóricos. The aim of this project is to study the physical and chemical processes of OH radicals with volatile organic compounds (VOCs) with which the formation of van der Waals (vdW) clusters, responsible for the observed curvature in the Arrhenius plots, might be feasible. The problem will be addressed as follow : 1) kinetic studies; 2) products distribution and mechanistic studies and 3) dynamical studies of the physical and chemical processes. The purpose is to obtain a better understanding of the mechanisms that govern the chemical behavior of species present in the atmosphere and to obtain high quality kinetic data to be used as input to computational models. We will study: 1) the reaction kinetics of OH (v”=0) radicals with VOCs such as unsaturated alcohols, halogenated alkenes, halogenated ethers, aliphatic esters, which show curved Arrhenius plots and negative activation energies, by PLP-LIF, in flow systems; 2) in a large volume (4500 L) atmospheric simulation chamber, reaction products yields in order to evaluate their atmospheric impact and reaction mechanisms; 3) using molecular beams and laser spectroscopy, the structure and reactivity of the vdW complexes formed between the unsaturated or aromatic alcohols and the OH radicals as a model of the adducts proposed as responsible for the non-Arrhenius behavior; 4) the specific state-to-state relaxation/reaction rate constants (ksts) of the vibrationally excited OH (v”=1-4) radical with the VOCs by PLP-LIF and supersonic expansions. Ab-initio calculations will be carried out to support the interpretation of the experimental results, to obtain the transition state and collisional adducts structures, as well as to calculate the vibrational frequencies of the vdW complexes to assign to the LIF and REMPI spectra. Also, the proposed reaction mechanisms and the experimentally measured kinetic parameters will be compared with those obtained from theoretical calculations.

Infarct Size as Predictor of Systolic Functional Recovery after Myocardial Infarction

Background: The effects of modern therapy on functional recovery after acute myocardial infarction (AMI) are unknown.Objectives:To evaluate the predictors of systolic functional recovery after anterior wall AMI in patients undergoing modern therapy (reperfusion, aggressive platelet antiaggregant therapy, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and beta-blockers).Methods:A total of 94 consecutive patients with AMI with ST-segment elevation were enrolled. Echocardiograms were performed during the in-hospital phase and after 6 months. Systolic dysfunction was defined as ejection fraction value < 50%.Results:In the initial echocardiogram, 64% of patients had systolic dysfunction. Patients with ventricular dysfunction had greater infarct size, assessed by the measurement of total and isoenzyme MB creatine kinase enzymes, than patients without dysfunction. Additionally, 24.5% of patients that initially had systolic dysfunction showed recovery within 6 months after AMI. Patients who recovered ventricular function had smaller infarct sizes, but larger values of ejection fraction and E-wave deceleration time than patients without recovery. At the multivariate analysis, it can be observed that infarct size was the only independent predictor of functional recovery after 6 months of AMI when adjusted for age, gender, ejection fraction and E-wave deceleration time.Conclusion: In spite of aggressive treatment, systolic ventricular dysfunction remains a frequent event after the anterior wall myocardial infarction. Additionally, 25% of patients show functional recovery. Finally, infarct size was the only significant predictor of functional recovery after six months of acute myocardial infarction.

High-Sensitivity C-Reactive Protein as a Predictor of Cardiovascular Events after ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction

Background: The association between high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and recurrent major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction who undergo primary percutaneous coronary intervention remains controversial. Objective: To investigate the potential association between high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and an increased risk of MACE such as death, heart failure, reinfarction, and new revascularization in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention. Methods: This prospective cohort study included 300 individuals aged >18 years who were diagnosed with ST-elevation myocardial infarction and underwent primary percutaneous coronary intervention at a tertiary health center. An instrument evaluating clinical variables and the Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) and Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk scores was used. High-sensitivity C-reactive protein was determined by nephelometry. The patients were followed-up during hospitalization and up to 30 days after infarction for the occurrence of MACE. Student's t, Mann-Whitney, chi-square, and logistic regression tests were used for statistical analyses. P values of ≤0.05 were considered statistically significant. Results: The mean age was 59.76 years, and 69.3% of patients were male. No statistically significant association was observed between high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and recurrent MACE (p = 0.11). However, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein was independently associated with 30-day mortality when adjusted for TIMI [odds ratio (OR), 1.27; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.07-1.51; p = 0.005] and GRACE (OR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.06-1.49; p = 0.007) risk scores. Conclusion: Although high-sensitivity C-reactive protein was not predictive of combined major cardiovascular events within 30 days after ST-elevation myocardial infarction in patients who underwent primary angioplasty and stent implantation, it was an independent predictor of 30-day mortality.

Validation of the Killip-Kimball Classification and Late Mortality after Acute Myocardial Infarction

Background: The classification or index of heart failure severity in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) was proposed by Killip and Kimball aiming at assessing the risk of in-hospital death and the potential benefit of specific management of care provided in Coronary Care Units (CCU) during the decade of 60. Objective: To validate the risk stratification of Killip classification in the long-term mortality and compare the prognostic value in patients with non-ST-segment elevation MI (NSTEMI) relative to patients with ST-segment elevation MI (STEMI), in the era of reperfusion and modern antithrombotic therapies. Methods: We evaluated 1906 patients with documented AMI and admitted to the CCU, from 1995 to 2011, with a mean follow-up of 05 years to assess total mortality. Kaplan-Meier (KM) curves were developed for comparison between survival distributions according to Killip class and NSTEMI versus STEMI. Cox proportional regression models were developed to determine the independent association between Killip class and mortality, with sensitivity analyses based on type of AMI. Results: The proportions of deaths and the KM survival distributions were significantly different across Killip class >1 (p <0.001) and with a similar pattern between patients with NSTEMI and STEMI. Cox models identified the Killip classification as a significant, sustained, consistent predictor and independent of relevant covariables (Wald χ2 16.5 [p = 0.001], NSTEMI) and (Wald χ2 11.9 [p = 0.008], STEMI). Conclusion: The Killip and Kimball classification performs relevant prognostic role in mortality at mean follow-up of 05 years post-AMI, with a similar pattern between NSTEMI and STEMI patients.

IFN stimulated gene expression in the liver is a better predictor of treatment response in chronic hepatitis c than the IL28b (IFN lambda 3) genotype

Background: Therapy of chronic hepatitis C (CHC) with pegIFNa/ribavirin achieves sustained virologic response (SVR) in ~55%. Pre-activation of the endogenous interferon system in the liver is associated non-response (NR). Recently, genome-wide association studies described associations of allelic variants near the IL28B (IFNλ3) gene with treatment response and with spontaneous clearance of the virus. We investigated if the IL28B genotype determines the constitutive expression of IFN stimulated genes (ISGs) in the liver of patients with CHC. Methods: We genotyped 93 patients with CHC for 3 IL28B single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs, rs12979860, rs8099917, rs12980275), extracted RNA from their liver biopsies and quantified the expression of IL28B and of 8 previously identified classifier genes which discriminate between SVR and NR (IFI44L, RSAD2, ISG15, IFI22, LAMP3, OAS3, LGALS3BP and HTATIP2). Decision tree ensembles in the form of a random forest classifier were used to calculate the relative predictive power of these different variables in a multivariate analysis. Results: The minor IL28B allele (bad risk for treatment response) was significantly associated with increased expression of ISGs, and, unexpectedly, with decreased expression of IL28B. Stratification of the patients into SVR and NR revealed that ISG expression was conditionally independent from the IL28B genotype, i.e. there was an increased expression of ISGs in NR compared to SVR irrespective of the IL28B genotype. The random forest feature score (RFFS) identified IFI27 (RFFS = 2.93), RSAD2 (1.88) and HTATIP2 (1.50) expression and the HCV genotype (1.62) as the strongest predictors of treatment response. ROC curves of the IL28B SNPs showed an AUC of 0.66 with an error rate (ERR) of 0.38. A classifier with the 3 best classifying genes showed an excellent test performance with an AUC of 0.94 and ERR of 0.15. The addition of IL28B genotype information did not improve the predictive power of the 3-gene classifier. Conclusions: IL28B genotype and hepatic ISG expression are conditionally independent predictors of treatment response in CHC. There is no direct link between altered IFNλ3 expression and pre-activation of the endogenous system in the liver. Hepatic ISG expression is by far the better predictor for treatment response than IL28B genotype.

Domestic Violence and Football in Glasgow: Are Reference Points Relevant?

Much research suggests that sporting events can trigger domestic violence with recent evidence suggesting that pre-match expectations (which can be interpreted as reference points) play an especially important role in this relationship. In particular, unexpectedly disappointing results have been associated with large increases in domestic violence. This paper contributes to this literature using a new data set containing every domestic violence incident in Glasgow over a period of more than eight years. We find that Old Firm matches, where Glasgow rivals Celtic and Rangers play, are associated with large increases in domestic violence (regardless of the timing or the outcome of the match). Non-Old Firm matches tend to have little impact on domestic violence. Furthermore, we fi nd little evidence for the importance of reference points. Matches with disappointing outcomes, relative to pre-match expectations, are found to be associated with unusual increases in domestic violence only in a very limited set of matches.

Domestic Violence and Football in Glasgow: Are Reference Points Relevant?

Much research suggests that sporting events can trigger domestic violence with recent evidence suggesting that pre-match expectations (which can be interpreted as reference points) play an especially important role in this relationship. In particular, unexpectedly disappointing results have been associated with large increases in domestic violence. This paper contributes to this literature using a new data set containing every domestic violence incident in Glasgow over a period of more than eight years. We find that Old Firm matches, where Glasgow rivals Celtic and Rangers play, are associated with large increases in domestic violence (regardless of the timing or the outcome of the match). Non-Old Firm matches tend to have little impact on domestic violence. Furthermore, we find little evidence for the importance of reference points. Matches with disappointing outcomes, relative to pre-match expectations, are found to be associated with unusual increases in domestic violence only in a very limited set of matches.

Partner Selection into Policy Relevant Field Experiments

This study investigates the issue of self-selection of stakeholders into participation and collaboration in policy-relevant experiments. We document and test the implications of self-selection in the context of randomised policy experiment we conducted in primary schools in the UK. The main questions we ask are (1) is there evidence of selection on key observable characteristics likely to matter for the outcome of interest and (2) does selection matter for the estimates of treatment eff ects. The experimental work consists in testing the e ffects of an intervention aimed at encouraging children to make more healthy choices at lunch. We recruited schools through local authorities and randomised schools across two incentive treatments and a control group. We document the selection taking place both at the level of local authorities and at the school level. Overall we nd mild evidence of selection on key observables such as obesity levels and socio-economic characteristics. We find evidence of selection along indicators of involvement in healthy lifestyle programmes at the school level, but the magnitude is small. Moreover, We do not find signifi cant di erences in the treatment e ffects of the experiment between variables which, albeit to a mild degree, are correlated with selection into the experiment. To our knowledge, this is the rst study providing direct evidence on the magnitude of self-selection in fi eld experiments.

On the Sources of Uncertainty in Exchange Rate Predictability

We analyse the role of time-variation in coefficients and other sources of uncertainty in exchange rate forecasting regressions. Our techniques incorporate the notion that the relevant set of predictors and their corresponding weights, change over time. We find that predictive models which allow for sudden rather than smooth, changes in coefficients significantly beat the random walk benchmark in out-of-sample forecasting exercise. Using innovative variance decomposition scheme, we identify uncertainty in coefficients' estimation and uncertainty about the precise degree of coefficients' variability, as the main factors hindering models' forecasting performance. The uncertainty regarding the choice of the predictor is small.

Effect of training-sample size and classification difficulty on the accuracy of genomic predictors.

Introduction: As part of the MicroArray Quality Control (MAQC)-II project, this analysis examines how the choice of univariate feature-selection methods and classification algorithms may influence the performance of genomic predictors under varying degrees of prediction difficulty represented by three clinically relevant endpoints. Methods: We used gene-expression data from 230 breast cancers (grouped into training and independent validation sets), and we examined 40 predictors (five univariate feature-selection methods combined with eight different classifiers) for each of the three endpoints. Their classification performance was estimated on the training set by using two different resampling methods and compared with the accuracy observed in the independent validation set. Results: A ranking of the three classification problems was obtained, and the performance of 120 models was estimated and assessed on an independent validation set. The bootstrapping estimates were closer to the validation performance than were the cross-validation estimates. The required sample size for each endpoint was estimated, and both gene-level and pathway-level analyses were performed on the obtained models. Conclusions: We showed that genomic predictor accuracy is determined largely by an interplay between sample size and classification difficulty. Variations on univariate feature-selection methods and choice of classification algorithm have only a modest impact on predictor performance, and several statistically equally good predictors can be developed for any given classification problem.