Sea Level Variations from Decades to Millennia: A few Case Studies

The main goals of this Ph.D. study are to investigate the regional and global geophysical components related to present polar ice melting and to provide independent cross validation checks of GIA models using both geophysical data detected by satellite mission, and geological observations from far field sites, in order to determine a lower and upper bound of uncertainty of GIA effect. The subject of this Thesis is the sea level change from decades to millennia scale. Within ice2sea collaboration, we developed a Fortran numerical code to analyze the local short-term sea level change and vertical deformation resulting from the loss of ice mass. This method is used to investigate polar regions: Greenland and Antarctica. We have used mass balance based on ICESat data for Greenland ice sheet and a plausible mass balance for Antarctic ice sheet. We have determined the regional and global fingerprint of sea level variations, vertical deformations of the solid surface of the Earth and variations of shape of the geoid for each ice source mentioned above. The coastal areas are affected by the long wavelength component of GIA process. Hence understanding the response of the Earth to loading is crucial in various contexts. Based on the hypothesis that Earth mantle materials obey to a linear rheology, and that the physical parameters of this rheology can be only characterized by their depth dependence, we investigate the Glacial Isostatic Effect upon the far field sites of Mediterranean area using an improved SELEN program. We presented new and revised observations for archaeological fish tanks located along the Tyrrhenian and Adriatic coast of Italy and new RSL for the SE Tunisia. Spatial and temporal variations of the Holocene sea levels studied in central Italy and Tunisia, provided important constraints on the melting history of the major ice sheets.

Sea-Level climate variability in the Mediterranean Sea

Sea-level variability is characterized by multiple interacting factors described in the Fourth Assessment Report (Bindoff et al., 2007) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that act over wide spectra of temporal and spatial scales. In Church et al. (2010) sea-level variability and changes are defined as manifestations of climate variability and change. The European Environmental Agency (EEA) defines sea level as one of most important indicators for monitoring climate change, as it integrates the response of different components of the Earths system and is also affected by anthropogenic contributions (EEA, 2011). The balance between the different sea-level contributions represents an important source of uncertainty, involving stochastic processes that are very difficult to describe and understand in detail, to the point that they are defined as an enigma in Munk (2002). Sea-level rate estimates are affected by all these uncertainties, in particular if we look at possible responses to sea-level contributions to future climate. At the regional scale, lateral fluxes also contribute to sea-level variability, adding complexity to sea-level dynamics. The research strategy adopted in this work to approach such an interesting and challenging topic has been to develop an objective methodology to study sea-level variability at different temporal and spatial scales, applicable in each part of the Mediterranean basin in particular, and in the global ocean in general, using all the best calibrated sources of data (for the Mediterranean): in-situ, remote-sensig and numerical models data. The global objective of this work was to achieve a deep understanding of all of the components of the sea-level signal contributing to sea-level variability, tendency and trend and to quantify them.

Effects of nutrients and sea-level rise on salt marshes of different soil types

The present thesis analyses the effects of the enrichment of the soil with fertilizer and sea level rise (SLR) on salt marsh vegetation. We simulated different conditions of the salt marshes under current and projected sea level rise. These habitats are colonised by various types of plants, we focused on species belonging to the genus Spartina. This plant seems to be particularly sensitive to eutrophication due to human activities, as experiments have documented a loss of habitat associated with altered nutrient conditions. We manipulated experimentally the types of sediment, the concentration of nutrients and sea level rise. We wanted to test whether eutrophication can affect the aboveground/belowground growth of the vegetation, and indirectly the erosion of the sediment, with potentially interacting effects with soil type and SLR in affecting the loss of the habitats and species. The study lasted from July to October. The data were analysed using Permanova. The results showed that the plants were placed in growth spiked sediment different from those raised in the untreated sediment. Furthermore, the sediment underwent a level of erosion differently depending on the growth of plants and the condition they were in the pots, current or future sea levers. These results suggest that the total salt marsh habitat is very sensitive to changes caused by human activities, and that excessive eutrophication, combined with SLR will likely facilitate further loss of salt marsh vegetation.

Sea level measurement using single GNSS antenna SNR signals

This thesis presents a possible method to calculate sea level variation using geodetic-quality Global Navigate Satellite System (GNSS) receivers. Three antennas are used: two small antennas and a choke ring one, analyzing only Global Positioning System signals. The main goal of the thesis is to test a modified configuration for antenna set up. In particular, measurements obtained tilting one antenna to face the horizon are compared to measurements obtained from antennas looking upward. The location of the experiment is a coastal environment nearby the Onsala Space Observatory in Sweden. Sea level variations are obtained using periodogram analysis of the SNR signal and compared to synthetic gauge generated from two independent tide gauges. The choke ring antenna provides poor result, with an RMS around 6 cm and a correlation coefficients of 0.89. The smaller antennas provide correlation coefficients around 0.93. The antenna pointing upward present an RMS of 4.3 cm and the one pointing the horizon an RMS of 6.7 cm. Notable variation in the statistical parameters is found when modifying the length of the interval analyzed. In particular, doubts are risen on the reliability of certain scattered data. No relation is found between the accuracy of the method and weather conditions. Possible methods to enhance the available data are investigated, and correlation coefficient above 0.97 can be obtained with small antennas when sacrificing data points. Hence, the results provide evidence of the suitability of SNR signal analysis for sea level variation in coastal environment even in the case of adverse weather conditions. In particular, tilted configurations provides comparable result with upward looking geodetic antennas. A SNR signal simulator is also tested to investigate its performance and usability. Various configuration are analyzed in combination with the periodogram procedure used to calculate the height of reflectors. Consistency between the data calculated and those received is found, and the overall accuracy of the height calculation program is found to be around 5 mm for input height below 5 m. The procedure is thus found to be suitable to analyze the data provided by the GNSS antennas at Onsala.

Global and regional sea level variations in the recent past and future: insight from observations and modeling

This work is focused on the analysis of sea–level change (last century), based mainly on instrumental observations. During this period, individual components of sea–level change are investigated, both at global and regional scales. Some of the geophysical processes responsible for current sea-level change such as glacial isostatic adjustments and current melting terrestrial ice sources, have been modeled and compared with observations. A new value of global mean sea level change based of tide gauges observations has been independently assessed in 1.5 mm/year, using corrections for glacial isostatic adjustment obtained with different models as a criterion for the tide gauge selection. The long wavelength spatial variability of the main components of sea–level change has been investigated by means of traditional and new spectral methods. Complex non–linear trends and abrupt sea–level variations shown by tide gauges records have been addressed applying different approaches to regional case studies. The Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition technique has been used to analyse tide gauges records from the Adriatic Sea to ascertain the existence of cyclic sea-level variations. An Early Warning approach have been adopted to detect tipping points in sea–level records of North East Pacific and their relationship with oceanic modes. Global sea–level projections to year 2100 have been obtained by a semi-empirical approach based on the artificial neural network method. In addition, a model-based approach has been applied to the case of the Mediterranean Sea, obtaining sea-level projection to year 2050.

Sea level trends in the Mediterranean from tide gauges and satellite altimetry

Sea level variation is one of the parameters directly related to climate change. Monitoring sea level rise is an important scientific issue since many populated areas of the world and megacities are located in low-lying regions. At present, sea level is measured by means of two techniques: the tide gauges and the satellite radar altimetry. Tide gauges measure sea-level relatively to a ground benchmark, hence, their measurements are directly affected by vertical ground motions. Satellite radar altimetry measures sea-level relative to a geocentric reference and are not affected by vertical land motions. In this study, the linear relative sea level trends of 35 tide gauge stations distributed across the Mediterranean Sea have been computed over the period 1993-2014. In order to extract the real sea-level variation, the vertical land motion has been estimated using the observations of available GPS stations and removed from the tide gauges records. These GPS-corrected trends have then been compared with satellite altimetry measurements over the same time interval (AVISO data set). A further comparison has been performed, over the period 1993-2013, using the CCI satellite altimetry data set which has been generated using an updated modeling. The absolute sea level trends obtained from satellite altimetry and GPS-corrected tide gauge data are mostly consistent, meaning that GPS data have provided reliable corrections for most of the sites. The trend values range between +2.5 and +4 mm/yr almost everywhere in the Mediterranean area, the largest trends were found in the Northern Adriatic Sea and in the Aegean. These results are in agreement with estimates of the global mean sea level rise over the last two decades. Where GPS data were not available, information on the vertical land motion deduced from the differences between absolute and relative trends are in agreement with the results of other studies.

The importance of ship log data: reconstructing North Atlantic, European and Mediterranean sea level pressure fields back to 1750

Local to regional climate anomalies are to a large extent determined by the state of the atmospheric circulation. The knowledge of large-scale sea level pressure (SLP) variations in former times is therefore crucial when addressing past climate changes across Europe and the Mediterranean. However, currently available SLP reconstructions lack data from the ocean, particularly in the pre-1850 period. Here we present a new statistically-derived 5° × 5° resolved gridded seasonal SLP dataset covering the eastern North Atlantic, Europe and the Mediterranean area (40°W–50°E; 20°N–70°N) back to 1750 using terrestrial instrumental pressure series and marine wind information from ship logbooks. For the period 1750–1850, the new SLP reconstruction provides a more accurate representation of the strength of the winter westerlies as well as the location and variability of the Azores High than currently available multiproxy pressure field reconstructions. These findings strongly support the potential of ship logbooks as an important source to determine past circulation variations especially for the pre-1850 period. This new dataset can be further used for dynamical studies relating large-scale atmospheric circulation to temperature and precipitation variability over the Mediterranean and Eurasia, for the comparison with outputs from GCMs as well as for detection and attribution studies.

Sea Level Pressure Variability Over the Southern Indian Ocean Inferred from a Glaciochemical Record in Princess Elizabeth Land, East Antarctica

A 250-year, high-resolution, multivariate ice core record from LGB65 (70degrees50'07"S, 77degrees04'29"E; 1850 m asl), Princess Elizabeth Land (PEL), is used to investigate sea level pressure (SLP) variability over the southern Indian Ocean (SIO). Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis reveals that the first EOF (EOF1) of the glaciochemical record from LGB65 represents most of the variability in sea salt throughout the 250-year record. EOF1 is negatively correlated (95% confidence level and higher) to instrumental mean sea level pressure (MSLP) at Kerguelen and New Amsterdam islands, SIO. On the basis of comparison with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, strong correlations were found between sea-salt variations and a quasi-stationary low that lies to the north of Prydz Bay, SIO. Comparison with a 250-year-long summer transpolar index (STPI) inferred from sub-Antarctic tree ring records reveals strong coherency. Decadal-scale SLP variability over SIO suggests shifting of the polar vortex. Prominent decadal-scale deepening of the southern Indian Ocean low (SIOL) exists circa 1790, 1810, 1835, 1860, 1880, 1900, and 1940 A. D., continuously after the 1970s, and prominent weakening circa 1750, 1795, 1825, 1850, 1870, 1890, 1910, and 1955 A. D. The LGB65 sea-salt record is characterized by significant decadal-scale variability with a strong similar to21-year periodic structure (99.9% confidence level). The relationship between LGB65 sea salt and solar irradiance changes shows that this periodicity is possibly the solar Hale cycle ( 22 years).