A sequential Monte Carlo algorithm to incorporate model uncertainty in Bayesian sequential design

Here we present a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm that can be used for any one-at-a-time Bayesian sequential design problem in the presence of model uncertainty where discrete data are encountered. Our focus is on adaptive design for model discrimination but the methodology is applicable if one has a different design objective such as parameter estimation or prediction. An SMC algorithm is run in parallel for each model and the algorithm relies on a convenient estimator of the evidence of each model which is essentially a function of importance sampling weights. Other methods for this task such as quadrature, often used in design, suffer from the curse of dimensionality. Approximating posterior model probabilities in this way allows us to use model discrimination utility functions derived from information theory that were previously difficult to compute except for conjugate models. A major benefit of the algorithm is that it requires very little problem specific tuning. We demonstrate the methodology on three applications, including discriminating between models for decline in motor neuron numbers in patients suffering from neurological diseases such as Motor Neuron disease.

How Does Information Processing Speed Relate to the Attentional Blink?

Background When observers are asked to identify two targets in rapid sequence, they often suffer profound performance deficits for the second target, even when the spatial location of the targets is known. This attentional blink (AB) is usually attributed to the time required to process a previous target, implying that a link should exist between individual differences in information processing speed and the AB. Methodology/Principal Findings The present work investigated this question by examining the relationship between a rapid automatized naming task typically used to assess information-processing speed and the magnitude of the AB. The results indicated that faster processing actually resulted in a greater AB, but only when targets were presented amongst high similarity distractors. When target-distractor similarity was minimal, processing speed was unrelated to the AB. Conclusions/Significance Our findings indicate that information-processing speed is unrelated to target processing efficiency per se, but rather to individual differences in observers' ability to suppress distractors. This is consistent with evidence that individuals who are able to avoid distraction are more efficient at deploying temporal attention, but argues against a direct link between general processing speed and efficient information selection.

A simulation study of unified GPS and roadside ranging technologies for vehicle positioning

The future vehicle navigation for safety applications requires seamless positioning at the accuracy of sub-meter or better. However, standalone Global Positioning System (GPS) or Differential GPS (DGPS) suffer from solution outages while being used in restricted areas such as high-rise urban areas and tunnels due to the blockages of satellite signals. Smoothed DGPS can provide sub-meter positioning accuracy, but not the seamless requirement. A disadvantage of the traditional navigation aids such as Dead Reckoning and Inertial Measurement Unit onboard vehicles are either not accurate enough due to error accumulation or too expensive to be acceptable by the mass market vehicle users. One of the alternative technologies is to use the wireless infrastructure installed in roadside to locate vehicles in regions where the Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) signals are not available (for example: inside tunnels, urban canyons and large indoor car parks). The examples of roadside infrastructure which can be potentially used for positioning purposes could include Wireless Local Area Network (WLAN)/Wireless Personal Area Network (WPAN) based positioning systems, Ultra-wide band (UWB) based positioning systems, Dedicated Short Range Communication (DSRC) devices, Locata’s positioning technology, and accurate road surface height information over selected road segments such as tunnels. This research reviews and compares the possible wireless technologies that could possibly be installed along roadside for positioning purposes. Models and algorithms of integrating different positioning technologies are also presented. Various simulation schemes are designed to examine the performance benefits of united GNSS and roadside infrastructure for vehicle positioning. The results from these experimental studies have shown a number of useful findings. It is clear that in the open road environment where sufficient satellite signals can be obtained, the roadside wireless measurements contribute very little to the improvement of positioning accuracy at the sub-meter level, especially in the dual constellation cases. In the restricted outdoor environments where only a few GPS satellites, such as those with 45 elevations, can be received, the roadside distance measurements can help improve both positioning accuracy and availability to the sub-meter level. When the vehicle is travelling in tunnels with known heights of tunnel surfaces and roadside distance measurements, the sub-meter horizontal positioning accuracy is also achievable. Overall, simulation results have demonstrated that roadside infrastructure indeed has the potential to provide sub-meter vehicle position solutions for certain road safety applications if the properly deployed roadside measurements are obtainable.

Finding and matching communities in social networks using data mining

The rapid growth in the number of users using social networks and the information that a social network requires about their users make the traditional matching systems insufficiently adept at matching users within social networks. This paper introduces the use of clustering to form communities of users and, then, uses these communities to generate matches. Forming communities within a social network helps to reduce the number of users that the matching system needs to consider, and helps to overcome other problems from which social networks suffer, such as the absence of user activities' information about a new user. The proposed system has been evaluated on a dataset obtained from an online dating website. Empirical analysis shows that accuracy of the matching process is increased using the community information.

Using a thimble to drink from a fire hydrant: information anxiety and the third sector

In the last 10 years, the third sector has seen an eruption of texts, websites, discussion forums, conferences, new journals, new research centres and sector-specific degrees. This growing abundance of information allows for hitherto impossible networking, collaboration and general awareness of what is happening in the sector. At the same time, however, like staff in many industries, nonprofit professionals can suffer from an increasingly common 21st century malaise known as ‘information anxiety’. It is worth examining the sector through the lens of Information Studies theory, to question what the information technology needs of nonprofits are and how their information management techniques may differ from those in the public and private sectors. There are implications of this both for those within the industry (in terms of governance, training and public relations) and those external to it (who may form relationships with nonprofits on the basis of access to information).

What explains the association between socioeconomic status and depression among Vietnamese adults?

Background Depression is a major public health problem worldwide and is currently ranked second to heart disease for years lost due to disability. For many decades, international research has found that depressive symptoms occur more frequently among low socioeconomic (SES) individuals than their more-advantaged peers. However, the reasons as to why those of low socioeconomic groups suffer more depressive symptoms are not well understood. Studies investigating the prevalence of depression and its association with SES emanate largely from developed countries, with little research among developing countries. In particular, there is a serious dearth of research on depression and no investigation of its association with SES in Vietnam. The aims of the research presented in this Thesis are to: estimate the prevalence of depressive symptoms among Vietnamese adults, examine the nature and extent of the association between SES and depression and to elucidate causal pathways linking SES to depressive symptoms Methods The research was conducted between September 2008 and November 2009 in Hue city in central Vietnam and used a combination of qualitative (in-depth interviews) and quantitative (survey) data collection methods. The qualitative study contributed to the development of the theoretical model and to the refinement of culturally-appropriate data collection instruments for the quantitative study. The main survey comprised a cross-sectional population–based survey with randomised cluster sampling. A sample of 1976 respondents aged between 25-55 years from ten randomly-selected residential zones (quarters) of Hue city completed the questionnaire (response rate 95.5%). Measures SES was classified using three indicators: education, occupation and income. The Center for Epidemiologic Studies-Depression (CES-D) scale was used to measure depressive symptoms (range0-51, mean=11.0, SD=8.5). Three cut-off points for the CES-D scores were applied: ‘at risk for clinical depression’ (16 or above), ‘depressive symptoms’ (above 21) and ‘depression’ (above 25). Six psychosocial indicators: life time trauma, chronic stress, recent life events, social support, self esteem, and mastery were hypothesized to mediate the association between SES and depressive symptoms. Analyses The prevalence of depressive symptoms were analysed using bivariate analyses. The multivariable analytic phase comprised of ordinary least squares regression, in accordance with Baron and Kenny’s three-step framework for mediation modeling. All analyses were adjusted for a range of confounders, including age, marital status, smoking, drinking and chronic diseases and the mediation models were stratified by gender. Results Among these Vietnamese adults, 24.3% were at or above the cut-off for being ‘at risk for clinical depression’, 11.9% were classified as having depressive symptoms and 6.8% were categorised as having depression. SES was inversely related to depressive symptoms: the least educated those with low occupational status or with the lowest incomes reported more depressive symptoms. Socioeconomicallydisadvantaged individuals were more likely to report experiencing stress (life time trauma, chronic stress or recent life events), perceived less social support and reported fewer personal resources (self esteem and mastery) than their moreadvantaged counterparts. These psychosocial resources were all significantly associated with depressive symptoms independent of SES. Each psychosocial factor showed a significant mediating effect on the association between SES and depressive symptoms. This was found for all measures of SES, and for males and females. In particular, personal resources (mastery, self esteem) and chronic stress accounted for a substantial proportion of the variation in depressive symptoms between socioeconomic groups. Social support and recent life events contributed modestly to socioeconomic differences in depressive symptoms, whereas lifetime trauma contributed the least to these inequalities. Conclusion This is the first known study in Vietnam or any developing country to systematically examine the extent to which psychosocial factors mediate the relationship between SES and depression. The study contributes new evidence regarding the burden of depression in Vietnam. The findings have practical relevance for advocacy, for mental health promotion and health-care services, and point to the need for programs that focus on building a sense of personal mastery and self esteem. More broadly, the work presented in this Thesis contributes to the international scientific literature on the social determinants of depression.

Geologically ancient DNA: fact or artefact?

Studies continue to report ancient DNA sequences and viable microbial cells that are many millions of years old. In this paper we evaluate some of the most extravagant claims of geologically ancient DNA. We conclude that although exciting, the reports suffer from inadequate experimental setup and insufficient authentication of results. Consequently, it remains doubtful whether amplifiable DNA sequences and viable bacteria can survive over geological timescales. To enhance the credibility of future studies and assist in discarding false-positive results, we propose a rigorous set of authentication criteria for work with geologically ancient DNA.

The provision of online counselling for young people

A substantial group of young people experience mental health problems which impact on their educational development and subsequent wellbeing. Of those who do suffer from mental health issues, a minority of these seek appropriate professional assistance. This paucity of help seeking behaviours among young people is a challenge for counsellors. Whereas adults who suffer mental health issues have increasingly turned to the internet for assistance, it is interesting that when young people whose social lives are increasingly dependent on the communication technologies, are not catered for as much as adults by online counselling. One small online counselling pilot program conducted at a Queensland secondary school for three years from 2005-2007 (Glasheen & Campbell, 2009) offered anonymous live-time counselling from the school counsellor (via a secure chat room) to students through the school’s website. Findings indicated that boys were more likely to use the service than girls. All participants transitioned to face-to-face counselling, and all reported it was beneficial. This pilot study attested to the potential of an online counselling. However, school counsellors as a professional group have been hesitant to utilise online counselling as part of their service delivery to young people in schools. This chapter concludes by identifying reasons for this reluctance and the possible initiatives to increase online support for young people in schools.

Alcohol and the foetus

The foetal alcohol syndrome (FAS) was first identified as a syndrome in 1973. Since then a large body of research has accumulated. The full syndrome in which heavy alcohol use in pregnancy results in growth retardation, a characteristic facial dysmorphology and brain damage will be described. FAS is the commonest preventable, known cause of intellectual handicap, however, a large proportion of people with partial foetal alcohol syndrome have an intelligence in the normal range. Those with the full syndrome and with identified and diagnosed, intellectual handicap are more likely to receive appropriate services. Those with an intelligence in the normal range, suffer from severe psycho- social disabilities resulting in homelessness, mental illness and frequently criminality. There is a larger number of people with a partial syndrome who also suffer from high rates of secondary disability including learning problems and 70% of FAS people also have ADD or ADHD...

Guilt in victims of internet scams

This is a presentation made (by invitation from the Queensland Police, Fraud Squad) to a group of Queenslanders all of whom had fallen victim to internet scams. The paper addresses the subject of guilt and why we may 'suffer' from it after a traumatic experience where the individual and/or the family have gone through a major financial or emotional loss.

Marginal reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo with application to motor unit number estimation

Motor unit number estimation (MUNE) is a method which aims to provide a quantitative indicator of progression of diseases that lead to loss of motor units, such as motor neurone disease. However the development of a reliable, repeatable and fast real-time MUNE method has proved elusive hitherto. Ridall et al. (2007) implement a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) algorithm to produce a posterior distribution for the number of motor units using a Bayesian hierarchical model that takes into account biological information about motor unit activation. However we find that the approach can be unreliable for some datasets since it can suffer from poor cross-dimensional mixing. Here we focus on improved inference by marginalising over latent variables to create the likelihood. In particular we explore how this can improve the RJMCMC mixing and investigate alternative approaches that utilise the likelihood (e.g. DIC (Spiegelhalter et al., 2002)). For this model the marginalisation is over latent variables which, for a larger number of motor units, is an intractable summation over all combinations of a set of latent binary variables whose joint sample space increases exponentially with the number of motor units. We provide a tractable and accurate approximation for this quantity and also investigate simulation approaches incorporated into RJMCMC using results of Andrieu and Roberts (2009).

Maize streak virus: An old and complex 'emerging' pathogen

Maize streak virus (MSV; Genus Mastrevirus, Family Geminiviridae) occurs throughout Africa, where it causes what is probably the most serious viral crop disease on the continent. It is obligately transmitted by as many as six leafhopper species in the Genus Cicadulina, but mainly by C. mbila Naudé and C. storeyi. In addition to maize, it can infect over 80 other species in the Family Poaceae. Whereas 11 strains of MSV are currently known, only the MSV-A strain is known to cause economically significant streak disease in maize. Severe maize streak disease (MSD) manifests as pronounced, continuous parallel chlorotic streaks on leaves, with severe stunting of the affected plant and, usuallly, a failure to produce complete cobs or seed. Natural resistance to MSV in maize, and/or maize infections caused by non-maize-adapted MSV strains, can result in narrow, interrupted streaks and no obvious yield losses. MSV epidemiology is primarily governed by environmental influences on its vector species, resulting in erratic epidemics every 3-10 years. Even in epidemic years, disease incidences can vary from a few infected plants per field, with little associated yield loss, to 100% infection rates and complete yield loss. Taxonomy: The only virus species known to cause MSD is MSV, the type member of the Genus Mastrevirus in the Family Geminiviridae. In addition to the MSV-A strain, which causes the most severe form of streak disease in maize, 10 other MSV strains (MSV-B to MSV-K) are known to infect barley, wheat, oats, rye, sugarcane, millet and many wild, mostly annual, grass species. Seven other mastrevirus species, many with host and geographical ranges partially overlapping those of MSV, appear to infect primarily perennial grasses. Physical properties: MSV and all related grass mastreviruses have single-component, circular, single-stranded DNA genomes of approximately 2700 bases, encapsidated in 22 × 38-nm geminate particles comprising two incomplete T = 1 icosahedra, with 22 pentameric capsomers composed of a single 32-kDa capsid protein. Particles are generally stable in buffers of pH 4-8. Disease symptoms: In infected maize plants, streak disease initially manifests as minute, pale, circular spots on the lowest exposed portion of the youngest leaves. The only leaves that develop symptoms are those formed after infection, with older leaves remaining healthy. As the disease progresses, newer leaves emerge containing streaks up to several millimetres in length along the leaf veins, with primary veins being less affected than secondary or tertiary veins. The streaks are often fused laterally, appearing as narrow, broken, chlorotic stripes, which may extend over the entire length of severely affected leaves. Lesion colour generally varies from white to yellow, with some virus strains causing red pigmentation on maize leaves and abnormal shoot and flower bunching in grasses. Reduced photosynthesis and increased respiration usually lead to a reduction in leaf length and plant height; thus, maize plants infected at an early stage become severely stunted, producing undersized, misshapen cobs or giving no yield at all. Yield loss in susceptible maize is directly related to the time of infection: Infected seedlings produce no yield or are killed, whereas plants infected at later times are proportionately less affected. Disease control: Disease avoidance can be practised by only planting maize during the early season when viral inoculum loads are lowest. Leafhopper vectors can also be controlled with insecticides such as carbofuran. However, the development and use of streak-resistant cultivars is probably the most effective and economically viable means of preventing streak epidemics. Naturally occurring tolerance to MSV (meaning that, although plants become systemically infected, they do not suffer serious yield losses) has been found, which has primarily been attributed to a single gene, msv-1. However, other MSV resistance genes also exist and improved resistance has been achieved by concentrating these within individual maiz genotypes. Whereas true MSV immunity (meaning that plants cannot be symptomatically infected by the virus) has been achieved in lines that include multiple small-effect resistance genes together with msv-1, it has proven difficult to transfer this immunity into commercial maize genotypes. An alternative resistance strategy using genetic engineering is currently being investigated in South Africa. Useful websites: 〈http://www.mcb.uct.ac.za/MSV/mastrevirus.htm〉; 〈http://www. danforthcenter.org/iltab/geminiviridae/geminiaccess/mastrevirus/Mastrevirus. htm〉. © 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Mineralogy of chondritic interplanetary dust particles

From a mineralogical survey of approximately 30 chondritic micrometeorites collected from the lower stratosphere and studied in detail using current electron microscopy techniques, it is concluded that these particles represent a unique group of extraterrestrial materials. These micrometeorites differ significantly in form and texture from components of carbonaceous chondrites and contain some mineral assemblages which do not occur in any meteorite class. Electron microscope investigations of chondritic micrometeorites have established that these materials (1) are extraterrestrial in origin, (2) existed in space as small objects, (3) endured minimal alteration by planetary processes since formation, and (4) can suffer minimal pulse heating (<600°C) on entering earth's atmosphere. The probable sources for chondritic interplanetary dust particles (IDPs) are cometary and asteroidal debris and, perhaps to a lesser extent, interstellar regions. These sources have not been conclusively linked to any specific mineralogical subset of IDP, although the chondritic porous (CP) aggregate is considered of likely cometary origin. Chondritic IDPs occur in two predominant mineral assemblages: (1) carbonaceous phases and phyllosilicates and (2) carbonaceous phases and nesosilicates or inosilicates, although particles with both types of silicate assemblages are observed. Olivines, pyroxenes, layer silicates, and carbon-rich phases are the most commonly occurring minerals in many chondritic IDPs. Other phases often observed in variable proportions include sulphides, spinels, metals, metal carbides, carbonates, and minor amounts of sulphates and phosphates. Individual mineral grain sizes range from micrometers (primarily pyroxenes and olivines) to nanometers, with the predominant size for all phases less than 100 nm. Specific mineral characteristics for particular chondritic IDPs provide an indication of processes which may have occurred prior to collection in the earth's stratosphere. For example, pyroxene mineralogy in some chondritic aggregates is consistent with condensation from a vapor phase and, we consider, with condensation in a turbulent solar nebula at relatively low temperatures (<1000°C). Carbonaceous phases present in other CP aggregates have been used to imply low-temperature formation processes such as Fischer-Tropsch synthesis (∼530°C) or carbonization and graphitization (∼315°C). Alteration processes have been implicated in the formation of some layer silicates in CP aggregates and may have involved hydrocryogenic alteration at <0°C. In general, interpretations of transformation processes on submicrometer-size minerals in chondritic IDPs are consistent with formation at a radius equivalent to the asteroid belt or greater during the later stages of solar nebula evolution using currently available models.

Architecture post mortem : the diastolic architecture of decline, dystopia, and death

Architecture Post Mortem surveys architecture’s encounter with death, decline, and ruination following late capitalism. As the world moves closer to an economic abyss that many perceive to be the death of capital, contraction and crisis are no longer mere phases of normal market fluctuations, but rather the irruption of the unconscious of ideology itself. Post mortem is that historical moment wherein architecture’s symbolic contract with capital is put on stage, naked to all. Architecture is not irrelevant to fiscal and political contagion as is commonly believed; it is the victim and penetrating analytical agent of the current crisis. As the very apparatus for modernity’s guilt and unfulfilled drives-modernity’s debt-architecture is that ideological element that functions as a master signifier of its own destruction, ordering all other signifiers and modes of signification beneath it. It is under these conditions that architecture theory has retreated to an “Alamo” of history, a final desert outpost where history has been asked to transcend itself. For architecture’s hoped-for utopia always involves an apocalypse. This timely collection of essays reformulates architecture’s relation to modernity via the operational death-drive: architecture is but a passage between life and death. This collection includes essays by Kazi K. Ashraf, David Bertolini, Simone Brott, Peggy Deamer, Didem Ekici, Paul Emmons, Donald Kunze, Todd McGowan, Gevork Hartoonian, Nadir Lahiji, Erika Naginski, and Dennis Maher. Contents: Introduction: ‘the way things are’, Donald Kunze; Driven into the public: the psychic constitution of space, Todd McGowan; Dead or alive in Joburg, Simone Brott; Building in-between the two deaths: a post mortem manifesto, Nadir Lahiji; Kant, Sade, ethics and architecture, David Bertolini; Post mortem: building deconstruction, Kazi K. Ashraf; The slow-fast architecture of love in the ruins, Donald Kunze; Progress: re-building the ruins of architecture, Gevork Hartoonian; Adrian Stokes: surface suicide, Peggy Deamer; A window to the soul: depth in the early modern section drawing, Paul Emmons; Preliminary thoughts on Piranesi and Vico, Erika Naginski; architectural asceticism and austerity, Didem Ekici; 900 miles to Paradise, and other afterlives of architecture, Dennis Maher; Index.

Parental bonding, family systems, and environmental predictors of adolescent homelessness

A multicausal model of adolescent homelessness is proposed, based upon the notion that homeless youth suffer from emotional, social, and cultural deprivation. The model was tested in a sample of homeless adolescents (n = 54) and a similar, but not homeless, control group (n = 58). Emotional deprivation was assessed on the Parental Bonding Inventory (Parker, Tupling,&Brown, 1979), whereas social and cultural deprivation were assessed on the Family Environment Scale (Moos&Moos, 1981). The homeless adolescents were found to be significantly more deprived emotionally, socially, and culturally than the controls. The results indicate support for a deprivation model of adolescent homelessness with implications for public policy and intervention planning.