Modelling and Forecasting Property Rents and Returns (summary section only)

Recently, focus of real estate investment has expanded from the building-specific level to the aggregate portfolio level. The portfolio perspective requires investment analysis for real estate which is comparable with that of other asset classes, such as stocks and bonds. Thus, despite its distinctive features, such as heterogeneity, high unit value, illiquidity and the use of valuations to measure performance, real estate should not be considered in isolation. This means that techniques which are widely used for other assets classes can also be applied to real estate. An important part of investment strategies which support decisions on multi-asset portfolios is identifying the fundamentals of movements in property rents and returns, and predicting them on the basis of these fundamentals. The main objective of this thesis is to find the key drivers and the best methods for modelling and forecasting property rents and returns in markets which have experienced structural changes. The Finnish property market, which is a small European market with structural changes and limited property data, is used as a case study. The findings in the thesis show that is it possible to use modern econometric tools for modelling and forecasting property markets. The thesis consists of an introduction part and four essays. Essays 1 and 3 model Helsinki office rents and returns, and assess the suitability of alternative techniques for forecasting these series. Simple time series techniques are able to account for structural changes in the way markets operate, and thus provide the best forecasting tool. Theory-based econometric models, in particular error correction models, which are constrained by long-run information, are better for explaining past movements in rents and returns than for predicting their future movements. Essay 2 proceeds by examining the key drivers of rent movements for several property types in a number of Finnish property markets. The essay shows that commercial rents in local markets can be modelled using national macroeconomic variables and a panel approach. Finally, Essay 4 investigates whether forecasting models can be improved by accounting for asymmetric responses of office returns to the business cycle. The essay finds that the forecast performance of time series models can be improved by introducing asymmetries, and the improvement is sufficient to justify the extra computational time and effort associated with the application of these techniques.

Drosophila “enhancer-trap” transposants: Gene expression in chemosensory and motor pathways and identification of mutants affected in smell and taste ability

We have isolated about a thousandDrosophila P-element transposants that allow thein situ detection of genomic enhancer elements by a histochemical assay for β-galactosidase activity. We summarize the β-galactosidase staining patterns of over 200 such transposants in the adult. Our aim was to identify genes that are likely to be involved in the chemosensory and motor pathways ofDrosophila. Based on β-galactosidase expression patterns in the tissues of our interest, we have chosen some strains for further analysis. Behavioral tests on a subset of the transposants have, in addition, identified several strains defective in their chemosensory responses.

Trans-saccadic processing of visual and motor planning during sequential eye movements

How the brain maintains perceptual continuity across eye movements that yield discontinuous snapshots of the world is still poorly understood. In this study, we adapted a framework from the dual-task paradigm, well suited to reveal bottlenecks in mental processing, to study how information is processed across sequential saccades. The pattern of RTs allowed us to distinguish among three forms of trans-saccadic processing (no trans-saccadic processing, trans-saccadic visual processing and trans-saccadic visual processing and saccade planning models). Using a cued double-step saccade task, we show that even though saccade execution is a processing bottleneck, limiting access to incoming visual information, partial visual and motor processing that occur prior to saccade execution is used to guide the next eye movement. These results provide insights into how the oculomotor system is designed to process information across multiple fixations that occur during natural scanning.

Influence of fuel hydrogen fraction on syngas fueled SI engine: Fuel thermo-physical property analysis and in-cylinder experimental investigations

Hydrogen, either in pure form or as a gaseous fuel mixture specie enhances the fuel conversion efficiency and reduce emissions in an internal combustion engine. This is due to the reduction in combustion duration attributed to higher laminar flame speeds. Hydrogen is also expected to increase the engine convective heat flux, attributed (directly or indirectly) to parameters like higher adiabatic flame temperature, laminar flame speed, thermal conductivity and diffusivity and lower flame quenching distance. These factors (adversely) affect the thermo-kinematic response and offset some of the benefits. The current work addresses the influence of mixture hydrogen fraction in syngas on the engine energy balance and the thermo-kinematic response for close to stoichiometric operating conditions. Four different bio-derived syngas compositions with fuel calorific value varying from 3.14 MJ/kg to 7.55 MJ/kg and air fuel mixture hydrogen fraction varying from 7.1% to 14.2% by volume are used. The analysis comprises of (a) use of chemical kinetics simulation package CHEMKIN for quantifying the thermo-physical properties (b) 0-D model for engine in-cylinder analysis and (c) in-cylinder investigations on a two-cylinder engine in open loop cooling mode for quantifying the thermo-kinematic response and engine energy balance. With lower adiabatic flame temperature for Syngas, the in-cylinder heat transfer analysis suggests that temperature has little effect in terms of increasing the heat flux. For typical engine like conditions (700 K and 25 bar at CR of 10), the laminar flame speed for syngas exceeds that of methane (55.5 cm/s) beyond mixture hydrogen fraction of 11% and is attributed to the increase in H based radicals. This leads to a reduction in the effective Lewis number and laminar flame thickness, potentially inducing flame instability and cellularity. Use of a thermodynamic model to assess the isolated influence of thermal conductivity and diffusivity on heat flux suggests an increase in the peak heat flux between 2% and 15% for the lowest (0.420 MW/m(2)) and highest (0.480 MW/m(2)) hydrogen containing syngas over methane (0.415 MW/m(2)) fueled operation. Experimental investigations indicate the engine cooling load for syngas fueled engine is higher by about 7% and 12% as compared to methane fueled operation; the losses are seen to increase with increasing mixture hydrogen fraction. Increase in the gas to electricity efficiency is observed from 18% to 24% as the mixture hydrogen fraction increases from 7.1% to 9.5%. Further increase in mixture hydrogen fraction to 14.2% results in the reduction of efficiency to 23%; argued due to the changes in the initial and terminal stages of combustion. On doubling of mixture hydrogen fraction, the flame kernel development and fast burn phase duration decrease by about 7% and 10% respectively and the terminal combustion duration, corresponding to 90%-98% mass burn, increases by about 23%. This increase in combustion duration arises from the cooling of the near wall mixture in the boundary layer attributed to the presence of hydrogen. The enhancement in engine cooling load and subsequent reduction in the brake thermal efficiency with increasing hydrogen fraction is evident from the engine energy balance along with the cumulative heat release profiles. Copyright (C) 2015, Hydrogen Energy Publications, LLC. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Long-Term Monitoring of Ecological Conditions In Gray’s Reef National Marine Sanctuary: Comparison of soft-bottom benthic assemblages and contaminant levels in sediments and biota in Spring 2000 and 2005

As part of an ongoing program of benthic sampling and related assessments of sediment quality at Gray’s Reef National Marine Sanctuary (GRNMS) off the coast of Georgia, a survey of soft-bottom benthic habitats was conducted in spring 2005 to characterize condition of macroinfaunal assemblages and levels of chemical contaminants in sediments and biota relative to a baseline survey carried out in spring 2000. Distribution and abundance of macrobenthos were related foremost to sediment type (median particle size, % gravel), which in turn varied according to bottom-habitat mesoscale features (e.g., association with live bottom versus flat or rippled sand areas). Overall abundance and diversity of soft-bottom benthic communities were similar between the two years, though dominance patterns and relative abundances of component species were less repeatable. Seasonal summer pulses of a few taxa (e.g., the bivalve Ervilia sp. A) observed in 2000 were not observed in 2005. Concentrations of chemical contaminants in sediments and biota, though detectable in both years, were consistently at low, background levels and no exceedances of sediment probable bioeffect levels or FDA action levels for edible fish or shellfish were observed. Near-bottom dissolved oxygen levels and organic-matter content of sediments also have remained within normal ranges. Highly diverse benthic assemblages were found in both years, supporting the premise that GRNMS serves as an important reservoir of marine biodiversity. A total of 353 taxa (219 identified to species) were collected during the spring 2005 survey. Cumulatively, 588 taxa (371 identified to species) have been recorded in the sanctuary from surveys in 2000, 2001, 2002, and 2005. Species Accumulation Curves indicate that the theoretical maximum should be in excess of 600 species. Results of this study will be of value in advancing strategic science and management goals for GRNMS, including characterization and long-term monitoring of sanctuary resources and processes, as well as supporting evolving interests in ecosystem-based management of the surrounding South Atlantic Bight (SAB) ecosystem. (PDF contains 46 pages)

DOPAMINE D2 RECEPTOR MECHANISMS CONTRIBUTE TO AGE-RELATED COGNITIVE DECLINE - THE EFFECTS OF QUINPIROLE ON MEMORY AND MOTOR-PERFORMANCE IN MONKEYS

The D2 dopamine (DA) receptor agonist, quinpirole, was characterized in young adult monkeys, young reserpine-treated monkeys and aged monkeys to assess the contribution of DA to age-related loss of prefrontal cortical (PFC) cognitive function, Monkeys were tested on a delayed response memory task that depends on the PFC, and a fine motor task that taps the functions of the motor cortex, In young adult monkeys, low quinpirole doses impaired performance of the PFC and fine motor tasks, while higher doses improved memory performance and induced dyskinesias and ''hallucinatory-like'' behaviors. The pattern of the quinpirole response in reserpine-treated monkeys suggested that the impairments in delayed response and fine motor performance resulted from drug actions at D2 autoreceptors, while the improvement in delayed response performance, dyskinesias and ''hallucinatory-like'' behaviors resulted from actions at postsynaptic receptors. In aged monkeys, low doses of quinpirole continued to impair fine motor performance, but lost their ability to impair delayed response performance. The magnitude of cognitive improvement and the incidence of ''hallucinatory-like'' behaviors were also reduced in the aged animals, suggesting some loss of postsynaptic D2 receptor function, The pattern of results is consistent with the greater loss of DA from the PFC than from motor areas in aged monkey brain (Goldman-Rakic and Brown, 1981; Wenk et al., 1989), and indicates that DA depletion contributes significantly to age-related cognitive decline.

Comprehensive Property Retrieval and Measurement of Concrete Spalling Using Machine Vision for Post-Earthquake Safety Assessments

Active vibration control (AVC) is a relatively new technology for the mitigation of annoying human-induced vibrations in floors. However, recent technological developments have demonstrated its great potential application in this field. Despite this, when a floor is found to have problematic floor vibrations after construction the unfamiliar technology of AVC is usually avoided in favour of more common techniques, such as Tuned Mass Dampers (TMDs) which have a proven track record of successful application, particularly for footbridges and staircases. This study aims to investigate the advantages and disadvantages that AVC has, when compared with TMDs, for the application of mitigation of pedestrian-induced floor vibrations in offices. Simulations are performed using the results from a finite element model of a typical office layout that has a high vibration response level. The vibration problems on this floor are then alleviated through the use of both AVC and TMDs and the results of each mitigation configuration compared. The results of this study will enable a more informed decision to be made by building owners and structural engineers regarding suitable technologies for reducing floor vibrations.