Design of mixed-longitudinal studies

Cross-sectional designs, longitudinal designs in which a single cohort is followed over time, and mixed-longitudinal designs in which several cohorts are followed for a shorter period are compared by their precision, potential for bias due to age, time and cohort effects, and feasibility. Mixed longitudinal studies have two advantages over longitudinal studies: isolation of time and age effects and shorter completion time. Though the advantages of mixed-longitudinal studies are clear, choosing an optimal design is difficult, especially given the number of possible combinations of the number of cohorts and number of overlapping intervals between cohorts. The purpose of this paper is to determine the optimal design for detecting differences in group growth rates.^ The type of mixed-longitudinal study appropriate for modeling both individual and group growth rates is called a "multiple-longitudinal" design. A multiple-longitudinal study typically requires uniform or simultaneous entry of subjects, who are each observed till the end of the study.^ While recommendations for designing pure-longitudinal studies have been made by Schlesselman (1973b), Lefant (1990) and Helms (1991), design recommendations for multiple-longitudinal studies have never been published. It is shown that by using power analyses to determine the minimum number of occasions per cohort and minimum number of overlapping occasions between cohorts, in conjunction with a cost model, an optimal multiple-longitudinal design can be determined. An example of systolic blood pressure values for cohorts of males and cohorts of females, ages 8 to 18 years, is given. ^

Combining static analysis and profiling for estimating execution times

Effective static analyses have been proposed which infer bounds on the number of resolutions. These have the advantage of being independent from the platform on which the programs are executed and have been shown to be useful in a number of applications, such as granularity control in parallel execution. On the other hand, in distributed computation scenarios where platforms with different capabilities come into play, it is necessary to express costs in metrics that include the characteristics of the platform. In particular, it is specially interesting to be able to infer upper and lower bounds on actual execution times. With this objective in mind, we propose an approach which combines compile-time analysis for cost bounds with a one-time profiling of a given platform in order to determine the valúes of certain parameters for that platform. These parameters calibrate a cost model which, from then on, is able to compute statically time bound functions for procedures and to predict with a significant degree of accuracy the execution times of such procedures in that concrete platform. The approach has been implemented and integrated in the CiaoPP system.

Towards execution time estimation for logic programs via static analysis and profiling

Effective static analyses have been proposed which infer bounds on the number of resolutions or reductions. These have the advantage of being independent from the platform on which the programs are executed and have been shown to be useful in a number of applications, such as granularity control in parallel execution. On the other hand, in distributed computation scenarios where platforms with different capabilities come into play, it is necessary to express costs in metrics that include the characteristics of the platform. In particular, it is specially interesting to be able to infer upper and lower bounds on actual execution times. With this objective in mind, we propose an approach which combines compile-time analysis for cost bounds with a one-time profiling of the platform in order to determine the valúes of certain parameters for a given platform. These parameters calíbrate a cost model which, from then on, is able to compute statically time bound functions for procedures and to predict with a significant degree of accuracy the execution times of such procedures in the given platform. The approach has been implemented and integrated in the CiaoPP system.

Combining static analysis and profiling for estimating execution times in logic programs

Effective static analyses have been proposed which allow inferring functions which bound the number of resolutions or reductions. These have the advantage of being independent from the platform on which the programs are executed and such bounds have been shown useful in a number of applications, such as granularity control in parallel execution. On the other hand, in certain distributed computation scenarios where different platforms come into play, with each platform having different capabilities, it is more interesting to express costs in metrics that include the characteristics of the platform. In particular, it is specially interesting to be able to infer upper and lower bounds on actual execution time. With this objective in mind, we propose a method which allows inferring upper and lower bounds on the execution times of procedures of a program in a given execution platform. The approach combines compile-time cost bounds analysis with a one-time profiling of the platform in order to determine the values of certain constants for that platform. These constants calibrate a cost model which from then on is able to compute statically time bound functions for procedures and to predict with a significant degree of accuracy the execution times of such procedures in the given platform. The approach has been implemented and integrated in the CiaoPP system.

Consideration of tip speed limitations in preliminary analysis of minimum COE wind turbines

A relation between Cost Of Energy, COE, maximum allowed tip speed, and rated wind speed, is obtained for wind turbines with a given goal rated power. The wind regime is characterised by the corresponding parameters of the probability density function of wind speed. The non-dimensional characteristics of the rotor: number of blades, the blade radial distributions of local solidity, twist angle, and airfoil type, play the role of parameters in the mentioned relation. The COE is estimated using a cost model commonly used by the designers. This cost model requires basic design data such as the rotor radius and the ratio between the hub height and the rotor radius. Certain design options, DO, related to the technology of the power plant, tower and blades are also required as inputs. The function obtained for the COE can be explored to �nd those values of rotor radius that give rise to minimum cost of energy for a given wind regime as the tip speed limitation changes. The analysis reveals that iso-COE lines evolve parallel to iso-radius lines for large values of limit tip speed but that this is not the case for small values of the tip speed limits. It is concluded that, as the tip speed limit decreases, the optimum decision for keeping minimum COE values can be: a) reducing the rotor radius for places with high weibull scale parameter or b) increasing the rotor radius for places with low weibull scale parameter

An hybrid parallel algorithm for solving tridiagonal linear systems versus the Wang’s method in a Cray T3D BSP computer

In this paper we describe an hybrid algorithm for an even number of processors based on an algorithm for two processors and the Overlapping Partition Method for tridiagonal systems. Moreover, we compare this hybrid method with the Partition Wang’s method in a BSP computer. Finally, we compare the theoretical computation cost of both methods for a Cray T3D computer, using the cost model that BSP model provides.

Estimating the recreational-use value for hiking in Bellenden Ker National Park, Australia

The recreational-use value of hiking in the Bellenden Ker National Park, Australia has been estimated using a zonal travel cost model. Multiple destination visitors have been accounted for by converting visitors' own ordinal ranking of the various sites visited to numerical weights, using an expected-value approach. The value of hiking and camping in this national park was found to be $AUS 250,825 per year, or $AUS 144,45 per visitor per year, which is similar to findings from other studies valuing recreational benefits. The management of the park can use these estimates when considering the introduction of a system of user pays fees. In addition, they might be important when decisions need to be made about the allocation of resources for maintenance or upgrade of tracks and facilities.

Multiresolution query optimization in an online environment

Multiresolution (or multi-scale) techniques make it possible for Web-based GIS applications to access large dataset. The performance of such systems relies on data transmission over network and multiresolution query processing. In the literature the latter has received little research attention so far, and the existing methods are not capable of processing large dataset. In this paper, we aim to improve multiresolution query processing in an online environment. A cost model for such query is proposed first, followed by three strategies for its optimization. Significant theoretical improvement can be observed when comparing against available methods. Application of these strategies is also discussed, and similar performance enhancement can be expected if implemented in online GIS applications.

Forecasting and risk analysis applied to management planning and control

The aim of this research was to improve the quantitative support to project planning and control principally through the use of more accurate forecasting for which new techniques were developed. This study arose from the observation that in most cases construction project forecasts were based on a methodology (c.1980) which relied on the DHSS cumulative cubic cost model and network based risk analysis (PERT). The former of these, in particular, imposes severe limitations which this study overcomes. Three areas of study were identified, namely growth curve forecasting, risk analysis and the interface of these quantitative techniques with project management. These fields have been used as a basis for the research programme. In order to give a sound basis for the research, industrial support was sought. This resulted in both the acquisition of cost profiles for a large number of projects and the opportunity to validate practical implementation. The outcome of this research project was deemed successful both in theory and practice. The new forecasting theory was shown to give major reductions in projection errors. The integration of the new predictive and risk analysis technologies with management principles, allowed the development of a viable software management aid which fills an acknowledged gap in current technology.

Lebenszykluskosten von elektrischen Antriebssystemen

Insbesondere bei Antriebssystemen stehen die Energiekosten neben den Anschaffungskosten im Fokus. Jedoch bleiben weitere Folgekosten, die im Laufe des Betriebs eines Antriebssystems in einem Fördermittel entstehen, meist unberücksichtigt. Dieser Artikel beschreibt einen Ansatz, wie sich Lebenszykluskosten von Antriebssystemen in Stetigfördertechnik prognostizieren lassen. Mit Hilfe von allgemein bekannten Normen und Richtlinien kann der Lebenszyklus eines Antriebssystems von der Projektierung über die Herstellung bis zur Entsorgung nach dem Betrieb in Kostenarten eingeteilt und veranschaulicht werden. Unter Verwendung von direkter Verrechnung als auch der Kalkulation mit Prozesskosten wird eine hinreichende Genauigkeit anhand definierter Prozessketten erreicht. Auf Basis dieser Kostenkalkulationen kann ein mehrstufiges Prognosemodell gebildet werden. Somit konnten durch das entwickelnde Modell Anlagenbeispiele untersucht und berechnet werden.

Identiteetin- ja käyttöoikeuksien hallinnan kustannus- ja tulosvaikutukset

Tämän tutkimuksen päätavoitteena oli luoda laskentamalli identiteetin- ja käyttöoikeuksien hallintajärjestelmien kustannus- ja tulosvaikutuksista. Mallin tarkoitus oli toimia järjestelmätoimittajien apuvälineenä, jolla mahdolliset asiakkaat voidaan paremmin vakuuttaa järjestelmän kustannushyödyistä myyntitilanteessa. Vastaavia kustannusvaikutuksia mittaavia malleja on rakennettu hyvin vähän, ja tässä tutkimuksessa rakennettu malli eroaa niistä sekä järjestelmätoimittajan työkustannusten että tietoturvariskien huomioimisen osalta. Laskentamallin toimivuuden todentamiseksi syntynyttä laskentamallia testattiin kahdessa yrityksessä, joiden käytössä on keskitetty identiteetinhallintajärjestelmä. Testaus suoritettiin syöttämällä yrityksen tiedot laskentamalliin ja vertaamalla mallin antamia tuloksia yrityksen havaitsemiin kustannusvaikutuksiin. Sekä kirjallisuuskatsauksen että laskentamallin testaamisen perusteella voidaan todeta, että identiteetinhallintaprosessin merkittävimmät kustannustekijät ovat identiteettien luomiseen ja muutoksiin kuluva työaika sekä näiden toimintojen aiheuttama työntekijän tehokkuuden laskeminen prosessin aikana. Tutkimuksen perusteella keskitettyjen identiteetinhallintajärjestelmien avulla on mahdollista saavuttaa merkittäviä kustannussäästöjä identiteetinhallintaprosessin toiminnoista, lisenssikustannuksista sekä IT-palvelukustannuksista. Kaikki kustannussäästöt eivät kuitenkaan ole konkreettisia, vaan liittyvät esimerkiksi työtehokkuuden nousemiseen järjestelmän ansiosta. Kustannusvaikutusten lisäksi identiteetinhallintajärjestelmät tarjoavat muita hyötyjä, joiden rahallisen arvon laskeminen on erittäin haastavaa. Laskentamallin käytön haasteina ovatkin konkreettisten ja epäsuorien kustannussäästöjen tunnistaminen ja arvottaminen sekä investoinnin kokonaishyötyjen arvioinnin vaikeus.

Paths to peace: conflict management trajectories in militarized interstate disputes

When multiple third-parties (states, coalitions, and international organizations) intervene in the same conflict, do their efforts inform one another? Anecdotal evidence suggests such a possibility, but research to date has not attempted to model this interdependence directly. The current project breaks with that tradition. In particular, it proposes three competing explanations of how previous intervention efforts affect current intervention decisions: a cost model (and a variant on it, a limited commitments model), a learning model, and a random model. After using a series of Markov transition (regime-switching) models to evaluate conflict management behavior within militarized interstate disputes in the 1946-2001 period, this study concludes that third-party intervention efforts inform one another. More specifically, third-parties examine previous efforts and balance their desire to manage conflict with their need to minimize intervention costs (the cost and limited commitments models). As a result, third-parties intervene regularly using verbal pleas and mediation, but rely significantly less frequently on legal, administrative, or peace operations strategies. This empirical threshold to the intervention costs that third-parties are willing to bear has strong theoretical foundations and holds across different time periods and third-party actors. Furthermore, the analysis indicates that the first third-party to intervene in a conflict is most likely to use a strategy designed to help the disputants work toward a resolution of their dispute. After this initial intervention, the level of third-party involvement declines and often devolves into a series of verbal pleas for peace. Such findings cumulatively suggest that disputants hold the key to effective conflict management. If the disputants adopt and maintain an extreme bargaining position or fail to encourage third-parties to accept greater intervention costs, their dispute will receive little more than verbal pleas for negotiations and peace.

Enabling effective operational decision making on a Combined Heat and Power System using the 5C architecture

The use of Cyber Physical Systems (CPS) to optimise industrial energy systems is an approach which has the potential to positively impact on manufacturing sector energy efficiency. The need to obtain data to facilitate the implementation of a CPS in an industrial energy system is however a complex task which is often implemented in a non-standardised way. The use of the 5C CPS architecture has the potential to standardise this approach. This paper describes a case study where data from a Combined Heat and Power (CHP) system located in a large manufacturing company was fused with grid electricity and gas models as well as a maintenance cost model using the 5C architecture with a view to making effective decisions on its cost efficient operation. A control change implemented based on the cognitive analysis enabled via the 5C architecture implementation has resulted in energy cost savings of over €7400 over a four-month period, with energy cost savings of over €150,000 projected once the 5C architecture is extended into the production environment.

El efecto de la definición regulatoria de banda ancha sobre la difusión y la competencia del mercado de servicios de Internet fijo en Colombia

A partir de la dinámica evolutiva de la economía de las Tecnologías de la Información y las Comunicaciones y el establecimiento de estándares mínimos de velocidad en distintos contextos regulatorios a nivel mundial, en particular en Colombia, en el presente artículo se presentan diversas aproximaciones empíricas para evaluar los efectos reales que conlleva el establecimiento de definiciones de servicios de banda ancha en el mercado de Internet fijo. Con base en los datos disponibles para Colombia sobre los planes de servicios de Internet fijo ofrecidos durante el periodo 2006-2012, se estima para los segmentos residencial y corporativo el proceso de difusión logístico modificado y el modelo de interacción estratégica para identificar los impactos generados sobre la masificación del servicio a nivel municipal y sobre las decisiones estratégicas que adoptan los operadores, respectivamente. Respecto a los resultados, se encuentra, por una parte, que las dos medidas regulatorias establecidas en Colombia en 2008 y 2010 presentan efectos significativos y positivos sobre el desplazamiento y el crecimiento de los procesos de difusión a nivel municipal. Por otra parte, se observa sustituibilidad estratégica en las decisiones de oferta de velocidad de descarga por parte de los operadores corporativos mientras que, a partir del análisis de distanciamiento de la velocidad ofrecida respecto al estándar mínimo de banda ancha, se demuestra que los proveedores de servicios residenciales tienden a agrupar sus decisiones de velocidad alrededor de los niveles establecidos por regulación.

Asociaciones público privadas para la infraestructura social en salud: hacia la identificación de pautas para la definición de un modelo colombiano

Las asociaciones público privadas "APP" han sido utilizadas para distribuir riesgos y fomentar el desarrollo de los países a través de la provisión de infraestructura. Así, se implementan para proveer bienes y servicios públicos tanto en los sectores de infraestructura productiva (carreteras, puertos, aeropuertos, trenes), como en el sector de infraestructura social (escuelas, universidades, hospitales, edificaciones públicas, etc.). En Colombia, ante la escasez de recursos públicos y la necesidad de formular posiibles soluciones a la crisis del sector salud, surge como una posible solución el modelo de APP consagrado en la Ley 1508 de 2008.