Comparative analysis of the relationship between phenological phenomena and meteorological indicators based on insect and plant monitoring

Climate change is one of the biggest environmental problems of the 21st century. The most sensitive indicators of the effects of the climatic changes are phenological processes of the biota. The effects of climate change which were observed the earliest are the remarkable changes in the phenology (i.e. the timing of the phenophases) of the plants and animals, which have been systematically monitored later. In our research we searched for the answer: which meteorological factors show the strongest statistical relationships with phenological phenomena based on some chosen plant and insect species (in case of which large phenological databases are available). Our study was based on two large databases: one of them is the Lepidoptera database of the Hungarian Plant Protection and Forestry Light Trap Network, the other one is the Geophytes Phenology Database of the Botanical Garden of Eötvös Loránd University. In the case of butterflies, statistically defined phenological dates were determined based on the daily collection data, while in the case of plants, observation data on blooming were available. The same meteorological indicators were applied for both groups in our study. On the basis of the data series, analyses of correlation were carried out and a new indicator, the so-called G index was introduced, summing up the number of correlations which were found to be significant on the different levels of significance. In our present study we compare the significant meteorological factors and analyse the differences based on the correlation data on plants and butterflies. Data on butterflies are much more varied regarding the effectiveness of the meteorological factors.

Martingálmértékek és a várható diszkontált jelenérték szabály (Martingale measures and the law of the discounted present value)

A dolgozatban a legegyszerűbb kérdést feszegetjük: Hogyan kell az árakat meghatározni véletlen jövőbeli kifizetések esetén. A tárgyalás némiképpen absztrakt, de a funkcionálanalízis néhány közismert tételén kívül semmilyen más mélyebb matematikai területre nem kell hivatkozni. A dolgozat kérdése, hogy miként indokolható a várható jelenérték szabálya, vagyis hogy minden jövőbeli kifizetés jelen időpontban érvényes ára a jövőbeli kifizetés diszkontált várható értéke. A dologban az egyetlen csavar az, hogy a várható értékhez tartozó valószínűségi mértékről nem tudunk semmit. Csak annyit tudunk, hogy létezik a matematikai pénzügyek legtöbbet hivatkozott fogalma, a misztikus Q mérték. A dolgozat megírásának legfontosabb indoka az volt, hogy megpróbáltam kiiktatni a megengedett portfólió fogalmát a származtatott termékek árazásának elméletéből. Miként közismert, a származtatott termékek árazásának elmélete a fedezés fogalmára épül. (...) ____ In the article the author discusses some problems of the existence of the martingale measure. In continuous time models one should restrict the set of self financing portfolios and introduce the concept of the admissible portfolios. But to define the admissible portfolios one should either define them under the martingale measure or to turn the set of admissible portfolios to a cone which makes the interpretation of the pricing formula difficult.

Socio-economic aspects of the fisheries of Nabugabo lakes and implications for management

Fisheries are very important to Uganda's economy. The sector provides a vital source of food, recreation, trade and socioeconomic well being for the people and community globally. The fisheries of small lakes are important for producing fish for local populations who are not near the large lakes. These satellite lakes support important fisheries and other economic activities like fishing, water for domestic purposes and tourism, besides socio-cultural values. A number-of fish;- species, some of which were found only in Lake Victoria have been depleted through over-exploitation, introduction of exotics especiaily Nile perch and environmental degradation. Some of these fishes have been observed to survive in satellite lakes in the Victoria and Kyoga Lake basins. The Nabugabo satellite lakes (Manywa, Kayugi and Kayanja) contain endemic Cichlid fish species acting as reservoirs and therefore very important for conservation of fish biodiversity. Despite the socio-economic importance and uniqueness of these satellite lakes little research on socio-economic studies has been carried out. The sustainability of the lake is being threatened by increasing human activities. The fish stocks and species diversity are declining and this poses a threat to the livelihood of the people who depend on fish for food and income. Arising from this need a study was carried out to establish the socio-economic aspects of Nabugabo fisheries and implications for management, on which basis resource users would be made aware of the impacts of their activities. It was hoped that this would go further to ensure wise use and management of the resources by the users. The specific objectives were identifying activities around the lake, establishing socioeconomic values attached to the lake, identifying problems of the lake and resource users and examining existing local based management institutions. Results show that the activities taking place around the lakes include fishing, farming, watering of animals, deforestation and charcoal burning, brick making, resort beach development and food and refreshment. The major problem facing the lake was found to be encroachment of Hippo grass (Vossia) on the lake, which is decreasing the size of the lake, and limiting open waters for fishing (this only applied to Lake Nabugabo). Other important problems include use of illegal fishing methods, declining fish stocks and loss of cultural identity. The resource users are most pressed by the low incomes resulting from poor fish catches, theft of gears and lack of market. On examining the resource base for the lakes, it was only Lake Nabugabo that had a Landing Management Committee. The other three lakes did not have leadership institutions in place except the local councils for the respective villages. This was probably due to observed limited fisheries activities. Majority of the respondents agreed that Government and other service providers should work jointly to supplement local beach management committees in the management of the lakes resources. This is a good gesture because with increase in fishing effort and rampant use of illegal fishing methods, there is need to strengthen management institutions present on the lake. This would require Government, local community and other service providers to work together in a participatory way to control environment-degrading activities and stop the use of illegal fishing methods. Burning of vegetation on the lake should be stopped since it enhances growth of this grass. Finally, traditional taboos; which are present on some of the Nabugabo lakes, should be enhanced, as away of preserving them.

Cassius Dio's speeches and the collapse of the Roman Republic

This thesis argues that Cassius Dio used his speeches of his Late Republican and Augustan narratives as a means of historical explanation. I suggest that the interpretative framework which the historian applied to the causes and success of constitutional change can be most clearly identified in the speeches. The discussion is divided into eight chapters over two sections. Chapter 1 (Introduction) sets out the historical, paideutic, and compositional issues which have traditionally served as a basis for rejecting the explanatory and interpretative value of the speeches in Dio’s work and for criticising his Roman History more generally. Section 1 consists of three methodological chapters which respond to these issues. In Chapter 2 (Speeches and Sources) I argue that Dio’s prosopopoeiai approximate more closely with the political oratory of that period than has traditionally been recognised. Chapter 3 (Dio and the Sophistic) argues that Cassius Dio viewed the artifice of rhetoric as a particular danger in his own time. I demonstrate that this preoccupation informed, credibly, his presentation of political oratory in the Late Republic and of its destructive consequences. Chapter 4 (Dio and the Progymnasmata) argues that although the texts of the progymnasmata in which Dio will have been educated clearly encouraged invention with a strongly moralising focus, it is precisely his reliance on these aspects of rhetorical education which would have rendered his interpretations persuasive to a contemporary audience. Section 2 is formed of three case-studies. In Chapter 5 (The Defence of the Republic) I explore how Dio placed speeches-in-character at three Republican constitutional crises to set out an imagined case for the preservation of that system. This case, I argue, is deliberately unconvincing: the historian uses these to elaborate the problems of the distribution of power and the noxious influence of φθόνος and φιλοτιμία. Chapter 6 (The Enemies of the Republic) examines the explanatory role of Dio’s speeches from the opposite perspective. It investigates Dio’s placement of dishonest speech into the mouths of military figures to make his own distinctive argument about the role of imperialism in the fragmentation of the res publica. Chapter 7 (Speech after the Settlement) argues that Cassius Dio used his three speeches of the Augustan age to demonstrate how a distinctive combination of Augustan virtues directly counteracted the negative aspects of Republican political and rhetorical culture which the previous two case-studies had explored. Indeed, in Dio’s account of Augustus the failures of the res publica are reinvented as positive forces which work in concert with Augustan ἀρετή to secure beneficial constitutional change.

Socio-economic profile of the Philippine National Aquasilviculture Program (PNAP) beneficiaries in Jiabong, Samar, Philippines

A total of 37 beneficiaries under the Philippine National Aquasilviculture Program (PNAP) was interviewed using the structured survey questionnaire of Socioeconomic Monitoring Guidelines for Coastal Managers in Southeast Asia (SocMon SEA). Most of the members of the households are young and in-school. Household heads’ primary occupation is fishing, a shift from mussel farming- the town’s major industry in the past decades. Perceived threat by the beneficiaries is related to the environment specifically typhoon and the problems on waste disposal. It also identified law enforcement as weak leading to dwindling fish catch, mass mortality of mussel, red tide and other problems affecting their primary sources of income. However, they could not relate these phenomena to the most likely causes. The current occupation does not provide sufficient income for the family as they seek for alternative jobs. Garbage and poor implementation of laws are among the identified problems of the beneficiaries.

The Proceedings of the South Carolina Historical Association

Annually, the association publishes a journal, The Proceedings, which consists of papers presented at the annual meeting. The Protestant Missionary in China: Problems of the First Treaty Period, 1842-1860 by Gordon K. Harrington French Communism and the Non-Communist Intellectuals, 1949 by Frederick F. Ritsch The Charles Town Board of Police, 1780-1782: A Study in Civil Administration under Military Occupation by George S. McCowen, Jr. Racism in the Administrations of Governor Cole Blease by Ronald D. Burnside The Twentieth Century: Age of the Dictators by Preston W. Slosson

Health Problems of Institutionalized Elderly

Introduction: human aging is marked by a decrease in the performance of some daily tasks, some even considered banal and imperceptibly when this limitation is followed by chronic diseases, the elderly becomes a source of concern for the family. Objective: identifying the health problems of the elderly living in long-stay institutions from self-reported diseases. This is a descriptive and quantitative study, conducted in northeastern Brazil capital, involving 138 elderly. For data collection we used a questionnaire containing demographic variables, institutional and related to self-reported health problems. Data were evaluated using bivariate analysis and association chi-square. Results: predominance of women was found (61.6%), aged 60-69 years old (39.1%), coming from the state capital (51.4%), and institutional permanence time between 1-5 years (77.5%). The most frequent diseases were related to the cardiovascular system (15.9%) and endocrine, nutritional and metabolic diseases (9.4%). It showed a significant association between self-reported diseases and the age of the elderly (p=0.047). Conclusion: it is expected to raise awareness among health professionals to provide a better assistance to the institutionalized elderly focusing on the real needs of these persons.

The development of the Quality Indicator for Rehabilitative Care (QuIRC): a measure of best practice for facilities for people with longer term mental health problems

BACKGROUND: Despite the progress over recent decades in developing community mental health services internationally, many people still receive treatment and care in institutional settings. Those most likely to reside longest in these facilities have the most complex mental health problems and are at most risk of potential abuses of care and exploitation. This study aimed to develop an international, standardised toolkit to assess the quality of care in longer term hospital and community based mental health units, including the degree to which human rights, social inclusion and autonomy are promoted. METHOD: The domains of care included in the toolkit were identified from a systematic literature review, international expert Delphi exercise, and review of care standards in ten European countries. The draft toolkit comprised 154 questions for unit managers. Inter-rater reliability was tested in 202 units across ten countries at different stages of deinstitutionalisation and development of community mental health services. Exploratory factor analysis was used to corroborate the allocation of items to domains. Feedback from those using the toolkit was collected about its usefulness and ease of completion. RESULTS: The toolkit had excellent inter-rater reliability and few items with narrow spread of response. Unit managers found the content highly relevant and were able to complete it in around 90 minutes. Minimal refinement was required and the final version comprised 145 questions assessing seven domains of care. CONCLUSIONS: Triangulation of qualitative and quantitative evidence directed the development of a robust and comprehensive international quality assessment toolkit for units in highly variable socioeconomic and political contexts

The viewpoint of health professionals on the role of basic units in the healthcare network of the Brazilian Unified Health System

In the process of creation of the Unified Health System (SUS) as a universal policy seeking to ensure comprehensive care, unscheduled assistance in primary healthcare units (UBS) is an unresolved challenge. The scope of this paper is to analyze the viewpoint of health professionals on the role of primary healthcare units in meeting this demand. It is a transversal study of qualitative data obtained through questionnaires and interviews with 106 medical practitioners from 6 emergency medical services and 190 professionals from 30 units. They explained why people seek emergency care for occurrences pertaining to primary care. The content analysis technique with thematic categories was used for data analysis. Lack of resources and problems with primary health unit work processes (50.8%) were the reasons most frequently cited by emergency care physicians to explain this inadequate demand. Only 33.3% of the health unit professionals agreed that these occurrences should be attended in the primary healthcare services. The limited viewpoint of the role of health services on the unscheduled care, particularly among primary care professionals, possibly leads to restrictive practices for access by the population.

The Supportive Role of the Family in Solving Real and Projected Problems of Everyday Life

In this research the supportive role of the family in coping with everyday problems was studied using two large data sets. The results show the importance of the structural aspect of social support. Mapping individual preferences to support referents showed the crucial role of spouse and parents in solving everyday problems. The individual choices of particular support referents could be fairly accurately predicted from knowledge of the composition of the family, in both categorical regression and logit models. The far lower predictability of the criterion variable was shown using a wide range of socioeconomic, social and demographic indicators. Residence in small cities and indicators of extreme occupational strata were particularly predictive of the choice of support referent. The supportive role of the family was also traced in the personal projects of young adults, which were seen as ecological, natural and dynamic middle-level units of analysis of personality. Different aspects of personal projects, including reliance on social support referents, turned out to be highly interrelated. One the one hand, expectations of support were determined by the content of the project, and on the other, expected social support also influences the content of the project. Sivuha sees this as one of the ways others can enter self-structures.

Safety climate in Swiss hospital units: Swiss version of the Safety Climate Survey

RATIONALE, AIMS AND OBJECTIVES Safety climate measurements are a broadly used element of improvement initiatives. In order to provide a sound and easy-to-administer instrument for the use in Swiss hospitals, we translated the Safety Climate Survey into German and French. METHODS After translating the Safety Climate Survey into French and German, a cross-sectional survey study was conducted with health care professionals (HCPs) in operating room (OR) teams and on OR-related wards in 10 Swiss hospitals. Validity of the instrument was examined by means of Cronbach's alpha and missing rates of the single items. Item-descriptive statistics group differences and percentage of 'problematic responses' (PPR) were calculated. RESULTS 3153 HCPs completed the survey (response rate: 63.4%). 1308 individuals were excluded from the analyses because of a profession other than doctor or nurse or invalid answers (n = 1845; nurses = 1321, doctors = 523). Internal consistency of the translated Safety Climate Survey was good (Cronbach's alpha G erman  = 0.86; Cronbach's alpha F rench  = 0.84). Missing rates at item level were rather low (0.23-4.3%). We found significant group differences in safety climate values regarding profession, managerial function, work area and time spent in direct patient care. At item level, 14 out of 21 items showed a PPR higher than 10%. CONCLUSIONS Results indicate that the French and German translations of the Safety Climate Survey might be a useful measurement instrument for safety climate in Swiss hospital units. Analyses at item level allow for differentiating facets of safety climate into more positive and critical safety climate aspects.