948 resultados para Probabilistic renewable power forecast


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Trabalho Final de Mestrado para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Mecânica

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The purpose of this article is to analyse and evaluate the economical, energetic and environmental impacts of the increasing penetration of renewable energies and electrical vehicles in isolated systems, such as Terceira Island in Azores and Madeira Island. Given the fact that the islands are extremely dependent on the importation of fossil fuels - not only for the production of energy, but also for the transportation’s sector – it’s intended to analyse how it is possible to reduce that dependency and determine the resultant reduction of pollutant gas emissions. Different settings have been analysed - with and without the penetration of EVs. The Terceira Island is an interesting case study, where EVs charging during off-peak hours could allow an increase in geothermal power, limited by the valley of power demand. The percentage of renewable energy in the electric power mix could reach the 74% in 2030 while at the same time, it is possible to reduce the emissions of pollutant gases in 45% and the purchase of fossil fuels in 44%. In Madeira, apart from wind, solar and small hydro power, there are not so many endogenous resources and the Island’s emission factor cannot be so reduced as in Terceira. Although, it is possible to reduce fossil fuels imports and emissions in 1.8% in 2030 when compared with a BAU scenario with a 14% of the LD fleet composed by EVs.

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The purpose of this article is to analyse and evaluate the economical, energetic and environmental impacts of the increasing penetration of renewable energies and electrical vehicles in isolated systems, such as Terceira Island in Azores and Madeira Island. Given the fact that the islands are extremely dependent on the importation of fossil fuels - not only for the production of energy, but also for the transportation’s sector – it’s intended to analyse how it is possible to reduce that dependency and determine the resultant reduction of pollutant gas emissions. Different settings have been analysed - with and without the penetration of EVs. The Terceira Island is an interesting case study, where EVs charging during off-peak hours could allow an increase in geothermal power, limited by the valley of power demand. The percentage of renewable energy in the electric power mix could reach the 74% in 2030 while at the same time, it is possible to reduce the emissions of pollutant gases in 45% and the purchase of fossil fuels in 44%. In Madeira, apart from wind, solar and small hydro power, there are not so many endogenous resources and the Island’s emission factor cannot be so reduced as in Terceira. Although, it is possible to reduce fossil fuels imports and emissions in 1.8% in 2030 when compared with a BAU scenario with a 14% of the LD fleet composed by EVs.

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Electricity short-term load forecast is very important for the operation of power systems. In this work a classical exponential smoothing model, the Holt-Winters with double seasonality was used to test for accurate predictions applied to the Portuguese demand time series. Some metaheuristic algorithms for the optimal selection of the smoothing parameters of the Holt-Winters forecast function were used and the results after testing in the time series showed little differences among methods, so the use of the simple local search algorithms is recommended as they are easier to implement.

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The integration of Plug-in electric vehicles in the transportation sector has a great potential to reduce oil dependency, the GHG emissions and to contribute for the integration of renewable sources into the electricity generation mix. Portugal has a high share of wind energy, and curtailment may occur, especially during the off-peak hours with high levels of hydro generation. In this context, the electric vehicles, seen as a distributed storage system, can help to reduce the potential wind curtailments and, therefore, increase the integration of wind power into the power system. In order to assess the energy and environmental benefits of this integration, a methodology based on a unit commitment and economic dispatch is adapted and implemented. From this methodology, the thermal generation costs, the CO2 emissions and the potential wind generation curtailment are computed. Simulation results show that a 10% penetration of electric vehicles in the Portuguese fleet would increase electrical load by 3% and reduce wind curtailment by only 26%. This results from the fact that the additional generation required to supply the electric vehicles is mostly thermal. The computed CO2 emissions of the EV are 92 g CO2/kWh which become closer to those of some new ICE engines.

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Recent changes in the operation and planning of power systems have been motivated by the introduction of Distributed Generation (DG) and Demand Response (DR) in the competitive electricity markets' environment, with deep concerns at the efficiency level. In this context, grid operators, market operators, utilities and consumers must adopt strategies and methods to take full advantage of demand response and distributed generation. This requires that all the involved players consider all the market opportunities, as the case of energy and reserve components of electricity markets. The present paper proposes a methodology which considers the joint dispatch of demand response and distributed generation in the context of a distribution network operated by a virtual power player. The resources' participation can be performed in both energy and reserve contexts. This methodology contemplates the probability of actually using the reserve and the distribution network constraints. Its application is illustrated in this paper using a 32-bus distribution network with 66 DG units and 218 consumers classified into 6 types of consumers.

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Smart grids with an intensive penetration of distributed energy resources will play an important role in future power system scenarios. The intermittent nature of renewable energy sources brings new challenges, requiring an efficient management of those sources. Additional storage resources can be beneficially used to address this problem; the massive use of electric vehicles, particularly of vehicle-to-grid (usually referred as gridable vehicles or V2G), becomes a very relevant issue. This paper addresses the impact of Electric Vehicles (EVs) in system operation costs and in power demand curve for a distribution network with large penetration of Distributed Generation (DG) units. An efficient management methodology for EVs charging and discharging is proposed, considering a multi-objective optimization problem. The main goals of the proposed methodology are: to minimize the system operation costs and to minimize the difference between the minimum and maximum system demand (leveling the power demand curve). The proposed methodology perform the day-ahead scheduling of distributed energy resources in a distribution network with high penetration of DG and a large number of electric vehicles. It is used a 32-bus distribution network in the case study section considering different scenarios of EVs penetration to analyze their impact in the network and in the other energy resources management.

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Hand-off (or hand-over), the process where mobile nodes select the best access point available to transfer data, has been well studied in wireless networks. The performance of a hand-off process depends on the specific characteristics of the wireless links. In the case of low-power wireless networks, hand-off decisions must be carefully taken by considering the unique properties of inexpensive low-power radios. This paper addresses the design, implementation and evaluation of smart-HOP, a hand-off mechanism tailored for low-power wireless networks. This work has three main contributions. First, it formulates the hard hand-off process for low-power networks (such as typical wireless sensor networks - WSNs) with a probabilistic model, to investigate the impact of the most relevant channel parameters through an analytical approach. Second, it confirms the probabilistic model through simulation and further elaborates on the impact of several hand-off parameters. Third, it fine-tunes the most relevant hand-off parameters via an extended set of experiments, in a realistic experimental scenario. The evaluation shows that smart-HOP performs well in the transitional region while achieving more than 98 percent relative delivery ratio and hand-off delays in the order of a few tens of a milliseconds.

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The use of a solar photovoltaic (PV) panel simulator can be a valued tool for the design and evaluation of the several components of a photovoltaic system. This simulator is based on power electronic converter controlled in such a way that will behave as a PV panel. Thus, in this paper a PV panel simulator based on a two quadrant DC/DC power converter is proposed. This topology will allow to achieve fast responses, like suddenly changes in the irradiation and temperature. To control the power converter it will be used a fast and robust sliding mode controller. Therefore, with the proposed system I-V curve simulation of a PV panel is obtained. Experimental results from a laboratory prototype are presented in order to confirm the theoretical operation.

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No contexto da penetração de energias renováveis no sistema elétrico, Portugal ocupa uma posição de destaque a nível mundial, muito devido à produção de eólica. Com um sistema elétrico com forte presença de fontes de energia renováveis, novos desafios surgem, nomeadamente no caso da energia eólica pela sua imprevisibilidade e volatilidade. O recurso eólico embora seja ilimitado não é armazenável, surgindo assim a necessidade da procura de modelos de previsão de produção de energia elétrica dos parques eólicos de modo a permitir uma boa gestão do sistema. Nesta dissertação apresentam-se as contribuições resultantes de um trabalho de pesquisa e investigação sobre modelos de previsão da potência elétrica com base em valores de previsões meteorológicas, nomeadamente, valores previstos da intensidade e direção do vento. Consideraram-se dois tipos de modelos: paramétricos e não paramétricos. Os primeiros são funções polinomiais de vários graus e a função sigmoide, os segundos são redes neuronais artificiais. Para a estimação dos modelos e respetiva validação, são usados dados recolhidos ao longo de dois anos e três meses no parque eólico do Pico Alto de potência instalada de 6 MW. De forma a otimizar os resultados da previsão, consideram-se diferentes classes de perfis de produção, definidas com base em quatro e oito direções do vento, e ajustam-se os modelos propostos em cada uma das classes. São apresentados e discutidos resultados de uma análise comparativa do desempenho dos diferentes modelos propostos para a previsão da potência.

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The integration of growing amounts of distributed generation in power systems, namely at distribution networks level, has been fostered by energy policies in several countries around the world, including in Europe. This intensive integration of distributed, non-dispatchable, and natural sources based generation (including wind power) has caused several changes in the operation and planning of power systems and of electricity markets. Sometimes the available non-dispatchable generation is higher than the demand. This generation must be used; otherwise it is wasted if not stored or used to supply additional demand. New policies and market rules, as well as new players, are needed in order to competitively integrate all the resources. The methodology proposed in this paper aims at the maximization of the social welfare in a distribution network operated by a virtual power player that aggregates and manages the available energy resources. When facing a situation of excessive non-dispatchable generation, including wind power, real time pricing is applied in order to induce the increase of consumption so that wind curtailment is minimized. This method is especially useful when actual and day-ahead resources forecast differ significantly. The distribution network characteristics and concerns are addressed by including the network constraints in the optimization model. The proposed methodology has been implemented in GAMS optimization tool and its application is illustrated in this paper using a real 937-bus distribution network with 20.310 consumers and 548 distributed generators, some of them non-dispatchable and with must take contracts. The implemented scenario corresponds to a real day in Portuguese power system.

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Power systems have been through deep changes in recent years, namely due to the operation of competitive electricity markets in the scope the increasingly intensive use of renewable energy sources and distributed generation. This requires new business models able to cope with the new opportunities that have emerged. Virtual Power Players (VPPs) are a new type of player that allows aggregating a diversity of players (Distributed Generation (DG), Storage Agents (SA), Electrical Vehicles (V2G) and consumers) to facilitate their participation in the electricity markets and to provide a set of new services promoting generation and consumption efficiency, while improving players’ benefits. A major task of VPPs is the remuneration of generation and services (maintenance, market operation costs and energy reserves), as well as charging energy consumption. This paper proposes a model to implement fair and strategic remuneration and tariff methodologies, able to allow efficient VPP operation and VPP goals accomplishment in the scope of electricity markets.

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The reactive power management in distribution network with large penetration of distributed energy resources is an important task in future power systems. The control of reactive power allows the inclusion of more distributed recourses and a more efficient operation of distributed network. Currently, the reactive power is only controlled in large power plants and in high and very high voltage substations. In this paper, several reactive power control strategies considering a smart grids paradigm are proposed. In this context, the management of distributed energy resources and of the distribution network by an aggregator, namely Virtual Power Player (VPP), is proposed and implemented in a MAS simulation tool. The proposed methods have been computationally implemented and tested using a 32-bus distribution network with intensive use of distributed resources, mainly the distributed generation based on renewable resources. Results concerning the evaluation of the reactive power management algorithms are also presented and compared.

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The electricity market restructuring, along with the increasing necessity for an adequate integration of renewable energy sources, is resulting in an rising complexity in power systems operation. Various power system simulators have been introduced in recent years with the purpose of helping operators, regulators, and involved players to understand and deal with this complex environment. This paper focuses on the development of an upper ontology which integrates the essential concepts necessary to interpret all the available information. The restructuring of MASCEM (Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets), and this system’s integration with MASGriP (Multi-Agent Smart Grid Platform), and ALBidS (Adaptive Learning Strategic Bidding System) provide the means for the exemplification of the usefulness of this ontology. A practical example is presented, showing how common simulation scenarios for different simulators, directed to very distinct environments, can be created departing from the proposed ontology.

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Energy resource scheduling is becoming increasingly important, such as the use of more distributed generators and electric vehicles connected to the distribution network. This paper proposes a methodology to be used by Virtual Power Players (VPPs), regarding the energy resource scheduling in smart grids and considering day-ahead, hour-ahead and realtime time horizons. This method considers that energy resources are managed by a VPP which establishes contracts with their owners. The full AC power flow calculation included in the model takes into account network constraints. In this paper, distribution function errors are used to simulate variations between time horizons, and to measure the performance of the proposed methodology. A 33-bus distribution network with large number of distributed resources is used.